2024-25 Roster Thread #2: Midseasonnar

[Hollywood Cannon]

Wait, Andrae is now "one of the better dmen in the franchise" over a 9 game stretch?

Looking at the wrong row, bubs.

 

[freakydallas13]

Wait, Andrae is now "one of the better dmen in the franchise" over a 9 game stretch?

Are small sample sizes significant or aren't they, DH? Make up your mind and stop speaking out both sides of your mouth.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Wait, Andrae is now "one of the better dmen in the franchise" over a 9 game stretch?

Yes that is indeed how he was playing when he was sent down in a tantrum. Oh, and you know this is true because you knew to put him in the offseason lineup predictions you always make. It wasn't out of nowhere.

That was bad coaching. Ride the guy as long as possible. Don't punish him while he is playing well.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Looking at the wrong row, bubs.

I was told very very recently that 20 game sample sizes are definitive and show you what a thing truly is.

Today. I was told that today. Hours ago.

 

[prototypical4thliner]

20+ good

<10 bad

I guess the sweet spot is 15 games to judge all. Except when it isn’t.

 

[renberg]

Let’s face facts here. Tortorella is a horrible coach when it comes to player development. He has his pets who get undeserved PT no matter what they do on the ice. His style of play does not allow players to use the skills that they have or improve on them. Tortorella is not an innovative or patient coach.
On another site a poster put up the roster of the Flyers’ 86 season. Only two players on that club were over thirty years of age- thirty one year old Mark Howe and thirty eight year old Chico Resch. Mike Keenan, a tough creative coach got this club to first place in the league. He played a rookie line of Smith/Zezel/Tocchet heavily that season. Young players, properly used, can be an asset.

 

[VladDrag]

You can if you're looking at a very young team where they lack experienced centers and everyone is learning on the job. Which is why I want to see what they do in the second half of the season, is this a fluke or young players climbing the learning curve?

When looking at the last two seasons, I don’t think this stretch of hockey is a fluke, and I think they are capable of putting 20-30 games of really quality play together. But the other side of that coin is true as well. They are capable of putting up stretches where they look terrible.

Sure, they are young players, and they may get more consistent with additional experience. But unless somebody unlocked something significant, every player but TK (and likely Michkov) is limited.

Finally I would also suggest that you look into real contenders “good stretches”. Sure this stretch the flyers are playing well, but when the good teams “play well” it’s another level.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Maybe @VladDrag remembers better than I do, but I can't think of a "good" team with as big of an xGF% > CF% split at 5v5 as the 24-25 Flyers. We're talking a >4% difference. The closest I can come is last year's Oilers and....yeah. Not the same approach to roster building! And then there's how important the PP has become as teams have adapted. That's going to be a major stress point until/unless something major changes.

Let me once again point out that they are the opposite of the Hurricanes in this area, who are >4% the other way. The only way that analogy holds up requires REM sleep.

 

[deadhead]

I've said again and again wait and see if this is sustainable.
The only way you know is to wait and see.

Maybe @VladDrag remembers better than I do, but I can't think of a "good" team with as big of an xGF% > CF% split at 5v5 as the 24-25 Flyers. We're talking a >4% difference. The closest I can come is last year's Oilers and....yeah. Not the same approach to roster building! And then there's how important the PP has become as teams have adapted. That's going to be a major stress point until/unless something major changes.

Let me once again point out that they are the opposite of the Hurricanes in this area, who are >4% the other way. The only way that analogy holds up requires REM sleep.

What does that mean? CF is about shots taken, xGF is more about quality of shots to the net.

So does that mean a team like Carolina possesses the puck more, or that they are less discriminating about the shots they take?

Not sure how you'd figure this out.

5x5 play does not make you a good team, which I've also pointed out.
But it's a good starting point, you can draft/add PP specialists (bottom six veterans who are good in the "half court"), you can find PK specialists and stash them on the 4th line.

And even if you have a good offense and a good PP, as NJ showed last year, you need a good goalie (though NJ has also tightened up their defense under Keefe, we'll see if he has better PO luck in NJ)

 

[Curufinwe]

Crazy that Ersson is straight back in the lineup. They are so desperate to stay in playoff contention.

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

Wasn't their excuse to keep 3 goalies was because Ersson couldn't stay healthy? I wonder why considering how they just ram him into every opportunity to come back rather than actually, you know, getting healthy?

 

[Audible Velvet]

Shades of Steve Mason situation?

 

[ponder719]

Wasn't their excuse to keep 3 goalies was because Ersson couldn't stay healthy? I wonder why considering how they just ram him into every opportunity to come back rather than actually, you know, getting healthy?

Tortorella has three bad goalies, one of whom he thinks is good because he used to be before he got hurt.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I've said again and again wait and see if this is sustainable.
The only way you know is to wait and see.


What does that mean? CF is about shots taken, xGF is more about quality of shots to the net.

So does that mean a team like Carolina possesses the puck more, or that they are less discriminating about the shots they take?

Not sure how you'd figure this out.

5x5 play does not make you a good team, which I've also pointed out.
But it's a good starting point, you can draft/add PP specialists (bottom six veterans who are good in the "half court"), you can find PK specialists and stash them on the 4th line.

And even if you have a good offense and a good PP, as NJ showed last year, you need a good goalie (though NJ has also tightened up their defense under Keefe, we'll see if he has better PO luck in NJ)

We really won't have to wait and see, though.

A team with no substantial changes which has devolved severely in the offensive zone that finished bottom 5 in shooting percentage last year will not remain in the top 5 as they have in this short stretch.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Guys, this dropped while the site was down and it made me laugh.

They absolutely didn't have anyone there at the time and had to scramble, right?

 

[deadhead]

Torts addressed this in his presser. Said he wouldn't play Ersson unless the training and medical staff said he was 100%. Noted that Ersson hadn't been dinged for a couple years, so not sure what to make of it.

He was also frank about the Cates line, said it was thrown together as the leftovers putting other lines together and had no idea it would work this well. Said they've been pushing Cates to be more aggressive for a year, thinks his way of being more aggressive to hold the puck longer and look for opportunities instead of just dumping the puck.

Poehling between TK and Tippett is to try and get more speed on the ice with them, isn't wed to it, just want to give it a look.

Thought Michkov played his best game in a month, his return was delayed b/c concussion protocol requires asking questions, so had to get the interpreter into the locker room then translate everything back and forth. Torts thought Michkov's legs were dead for a while (I agree, if you look at him in say October v December the difference is obvious) and they plan to work with him this summer on conditioning, nutrition, etc. to prepare him better for a 82 game season.

 

[pooch]

The only good line he's made was an accident? Lol

 

[VladDrag]

Maybe @VladDrag remembers better than I do, but I can't think of a "good" team with as big of an xGF% > CF% split at 5v5 as the 24-25 Flyers. We're talking a >4% difference. The closest I can come is last year's Oilers and....yeah. Not the same approach to roster building! And then there's how important the PP has become as teams have adapted. That's going to be a major stress point until/unless something major changes.

Let me once again point out that they are the opposite of the Hurricanes in this area, who are >4% the other way. The only way that analogy holds up requires REM sleep.

**I've defined Good Teams by defined by a point % greater than 64%, which is a 105 point season over 82 games. I had to do it this way because of the shortened seasons**

A portion of the list of "good teams" from seasons 13-14 through 23-24 who had higher xGF% relative to their CF%. The entire list is much longer than this (75 total teams during that stretch), but the focus is on the teams who have higher xGF%.

It's common for good teams to have higher xGF% compared to their CF%, but not usually by more than 0.3%.

The 24-25 Flyers currently are sitting more than 5 points higher in xGF% (53.27) vs CF% (47.75). The surface of this would say that they are getting out-shot, but they are also 'out-chancing' teams. However, something that's interesting here is the amount of blocked shots. Blocked shots are not part of the xG equation, only shots that are saves, missed the net or goals are included in the xG calculation.

The Flyers are blocking 33.35% of the total shots against (at 5v5), which leads the league. In fact, in the last 10 years there's only one team that has blocked a higher percentage of shots. That is the 23-24 Flyers (lol). In contrast, The Flyers opponents are blocking 27.14% of the Flyers shots. This is the second lowest value in this season.

TL/DR - By blocking so many shots, the Flyers are limiting the total amount of xGA, and by not having as many shots blocked they are able to increase the amount of xGF.

*There are other things I want to write but I have to sign off now -- I'm sure I'll respond to one of @deadhead comments later!*

 

[deadhead]

View attachment 958517
**I've defined Good Teams by defined by a point % greater than 64%, which is a 105 point season over 82 games. I had to do it this way because of the shortened seasons**

A portion of the list of "good teams" from seasons 13-14 through 23-24 who had higher xGF% relative to their CF%. The entire list is much longer than this (75 total teams during that stretch), but the focus is on the teams who have higher xGF%.

It's common for good teams to have higher xGF% compared to their CF%, but not usually by more than 0.3%.

The 24-25 Flyers currently are sitting more than 5 points higher in xGF% (53.27) vs CF% (47.75). The surface of this would say that they are getting out-shot, but they are also 'out-chancing' teams. However, something that's interesting here is the amount of blocked shots. Blocked shots are not part of the xG equation, only shots that are saves, missed the net or goals are included in the xG calculation.

The Flyers are blocking 33.35% of the total shots against (at 5v5), which leads the league. In fact, in the last 10 years there's only one team that has blocked a higher percentage of shots. That is the 23-24 Flyers (lol). In contrast, The Flyers opponents are blocking 27.14% of the Flyers shots. This is the second lowest value in this season.

TL/DR - By blocking so many shots, the Flyers are limiting the total amount of xGA, and by not having as many shots blocked they are able to increase the amount of xGF.

*There are other things I want to write but I have to sign off now -- I'm sure I'll respond to one of @deadhead comments later!*

Isn't blocking shots generally a good thing, Vegas lead the league on the way to a Cup.
And not having shots blocked is almost always a good thing, means shooters are deking or moving the puck around to find clear shooting lanes.

I suspect this is a bit of a statistical fluke, but xGF to me is more valuable than CF, taking a lot of shots that are blocked or long range is a way to pad CF without real impact. One reason Sv% may be down is teams moving away from volume shooting to working to set up better scoring chances. The exception is long range shots by D-men where forwards are setting screens and obscuring the goalie's vision. Not sure there is public data on that.

I like to look at xGF along with HDCF, which I think measures both the ability to create good scoring chances and "bad mistakes" leading to dangerous chances. So xGF is volume of potential chances and HDCF is more a quality measure.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

We really have to stop using xGF as a universal term. There can be large swings depending on the model. The '24-25 Flyers at 5v5 are currently at 51.12% by HockeyViz, 51.48% by NST, 51.91% by MoneyPuck, and 53.18% by Evolving Hockey. That's a big difference.

 

[Lord Defect]

For the record I hate advanced stats as I don’t understand them.
If you include something conversation worthy in the mix with stats, I’ve skimmed the post and moved on.

 

[deadhead]

We really have to stop using xGF as a universal term. There can be large swings depending on the model. The '24-25 Flyers at 5v5 are currently at 51.12% by HockeyViz, 51.48% by NST, 51.91% by MoneyPuck, and 53.18% by Evolving Hockey. That's a big difference.

Other than EH, that's a pretty tight grouping, you'd expect a significant SD, given that measuring and defining these terms isn't an exact science.

Is the guy running EH a Flyers' fan?

 

[VladDrag]

Isn't blocking shots generally a good thing, Vegas lead the league on the way to a Cup.
And not having shots blocked is almost always a good thing, means shooters are deking or moving the puck around to find clear shooting lanes.

Blocking shots is a great thing. The point is that they have an elevated xGF relative to their CF because of the blocked shots. Are you honestly seeing shooters deke and move the puck around? If they are doing that at 5v5, why is their power play so shitty?

For the record I hate advanced stats as I don’t understand them.
If you include something conversation worthy in the mix with stats, I’ve skimmed the post and moved on.

 

[deadhead]

Blocking shots is a great thing. The point is that they have an elevated xGF relative to their CF because of the blocked shots. Are you honestly seeing shooters deke and move the puck around? If they are doing that at 5v5, why is their power play so shitty?


View attachment 958627

But their shots aren't getting blocked, and they're not taking a lot of low value long range shots, heck, even Tippett is taking more shots closer to the net (though Torts keeps telling him to hit the net, at worst maybe you generate a rebound, miss the net and bad things happen).

So they must be doing something right.

The problem on the PP seems to be primarily faceoffs (they lose too many) and entries (they struggle to set up). Once they get set up they've seemed decent, but too often they waste most of a PP trying to get set up.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Isn't blocking shots generally a good thing, Vegas lead the league on the way to a Cup.
And not having shots blocked is almost always a good thing, means shooters are deking or moving the puck around to find clear shooting lanes.

I suspect this is a bit of a statistical fluke, but xGF to me is more valuable than CF, taking a lot of shots that are blocked or long range is a way to pad CF without real impact. One reason Sv% may be down is teams moving away from volume shooting to working to set up better scoring chances. The exception is long range shots by D-men where forwards are setting screens and obscuring the goalie's vision. Not sure there is public data on that.

I like to look at xGF along with HDCF, which I think measures both the ability to create good scoring chances and "bad mistakes" leading to dangerous chances. So xGF is volume of potential chances and HDCF is more a quality measure.

The obvious answer is "it depends."

If you're blocking shots all the time because you're too easy to control the OZ against, then that's bad. If you're blocking a ton of shots on top of also controlling the DZ, then that's a pretty healthy and severe strangulation of the opposing team with both hands.