2024-25 Roster Thread #2: Midseasonnar

[deadhead]

The last 20 games, they are 3rd in the NHL in goals per 60 at ES.
That's a large enough sample to suggest they're pretty good at scoring.
Even over 40 games they're 12th in the NHL, above the median, and better than NJ and Florida.
They are outscoring xGF by 0.18 goals per 60, so they've learned to finish.

The struggles on the PP seem to be with puck possession, they lose the puck on faceoffs and against aggressive PKs too often, killing off time. And they struggle with zone entry.

But at even strength, they're playing great hockey.

Like I've said, we'll see if it's sustainable the second half of the season.

 

[Beef Invictus]

This could be my own personal hot take, but I didn't mind the hiring of Hakstol at the time. It at least showed that the team was willing to try hiring someone new and not another retread, even if he did coach Hextall's kid.

Now, it turned out poorly, and they held on to him for too long, but I at least understood the reasoning behind his hiring and could be on board with (most) of their logic.

It's the same reason I unironically think the Ryan Ellis trade was a good one to this day, results be damned.

I was immediately heavily worried when the nepo connection became clear, and also by the way his team immediately started winning once free of him, but his first interview after getting hired showed a very forward thinking and prophetic vision of where hockey was going in terms of play generation from the blueline. I loved it.

His actual pursuit of those principles was heavily terrible. But hey, the ideas were sound!

 

[Beef Invictus]

Huge difference the last 20 games, and that's when the lines became set, and they could start developing chemistry. I think a lot of the defense improvement is simply becoming better at maintaining possession in the O-zone. Which is both skill with the puck but also winning board battles and forcing turnovers.

And players improving with their backchecking - if you're going to be aggressive in the O-zone, you have to backcheck aggressively b/c you're going to give up odd man rushes, but getting back quickly reduces the time they have to set up scoring plays.

They are now above average overall in speed and quickness, and will get faster when they add Jett and Andrae and maybe Barkey. I'd still like to add more speed to support this up tempo style, but also some size, they need another "Foerster," a big player who plays physical but has skill, v another Hathaway, a big physical player who has stone hands. Same on defense, when they trade Risto, Bonk will help balance a pair, but they could use one more physical D-man (McDonald? Gill filling out?) to pair with smaller puck dominant partners.

Notice the impact Berube has had on the Leafs, they're less explosive offensively except when they need to be, but far more physical and defensively responsible. It'll be interesting to see them in the playoffs this year.
Bigger forward group, Matthews (6'2 208), Knies (6'2 210), Pacioretty (6'2 217), McMann (6'2 210), Lorentz (6'4 210).

The lines are not set.

 

[Beef Invictus]

You can't just make a trade in the NHL

Everyone but this regime can.

 

[Beef Invictus]

The last 20 games, they are 3rd in the NHL in goals per 60 at ES.
That's a large enough sample to suggest they're pretty good at scoring.

The struggles on the PP seem to be with puck possession, they lose the puck on faceoffs and against aggressive PKs too often, killing off time. And they struggle with zone entry.

But at even strength, they're playing great hockey.

Like I've said, we'll see if it's sustainable the second half of the season.

Their shooting percentage has been sky high the last 20 and especially last 10 games. Well above their usual. We've been through this before. We know how this goes.

You proclaim "This Is The True Flyers! The Regime And God-Like Coach Have Succeeded For Certain!" and then their annual one month of lucky shooting dries up and the bottom falls out again.

Are we ever planning on learning from this annual tradition? Just about every team has their hot streak once a year. For the bad teams, it's rarely due to a radical transformation. There is no indication the Flyers have radically transformed.

 

[freakydallas13]

That's a large enough sample to suggest they're pretty good at scoring.

"Last 20 games they are 3rd in the NHL in goals per 60 at even strength" is such an incredibly cherry picked stat, how much do you sell it for per pint?

 

[deadhead]

The lines are not set.

The Brink line is set.
Frost - Michkov seems to be set, whether Laughton stays with them? I'd like to see Couts as their LW, I think he'd be a good veteran anchor for that pair - but they'd need another center.
Tippett - Poehling - TK is not a long-run solution, but might be a placeholder for Jett.
Farabee - Couts - Hathaway is a bad combo. Hathaway is slowing down and lacks hands.

Next season?
Foerster - Cates - Brink
Couts - Frost - Michkov
Tippett - Jett - TK
Farabee - Poehling - Hathaway?
Lycksell? Abols? Gaucher?
I expect Barkey will need a year in the AHL.
Avon, Wisdom, Desnoyers, Tuomaala, Gendron are works in progress.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Bespoke statistics for the discerning gentleman. *taps on dark wood* Luchanko

 

[Beef Invictus]

The Brink line is set.
Frost - Michkov seems to be set, whether Laughton stays with them? I'd like to see Couts as their LW, I think he'd be a good veteran anchor for that pair - but they'd need another center.
Tippett - Poehling - TK is not a long-run solution, but might be a placeholder for Jett.
Farabee - Couts - Hathaway is a bad combo. Hathaway is slowing down and lacks hands.

Next season?
Foerster - Cates - Brink
Couts - Frost - Michkov
Tippett - Jett - TK
Farabee - Poehling - Hathaway?
Lycksell? Abols? Gaucher?
I expect Barkey will need a year in the AHL.
Avon, Wisdom, Desnoyers, Tuomaala, Gendron are works in progress.

They used 32 line combos last night.

The Leafs used 22.


Every time we play this game, the Flyers used drastically more line combos than the last teams they faced. And still you pretend the lines aren't in a blender.

The opposing teams use 15-20 line combos. The low end for the Flyers seems to be 25. Their lines are less stable than the rest of the league, and they are not set by any conventional league standard.

 

[deadhead]

Their shooting percentage has been sky high the last 20 and especially last 10 games. Well above their usual. We've been through this before. We know how this goes.

You proclaim "This Is The True Flyers! The Regime And God-Like Coach Have Succeeded For Certain!" and then their annual one month of lucky shooting dries up and the bottom falls out again.

Are we ever planning on learning from this annual tradition? Just about every team has their hot streak once a year. For the bad teams, it's rarely due to a radical transformation. There is no indication the Flyers have radically transformed.

The metrics are sky high and they are independent of shooting.
ES:
4th in xGF/60: NJ 1st by wide margin, then Wash, Dallas, Philly, Edm, Car, Nash bunched together
4th in HDCF/60.
5x5 (SVA):
2nd in xGF/60; 1st in xGA/60
5th in HDCF/60; 3rd in HDCA/60

Is this sustainable? Don't know. But it's not a hot shooting streak.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Every time that I see the name Desnoyers I get great joy remembering that he has been penciled into the opening night roster for roughly the last decade.

 

[Beef Invictus]

The metrics are sky high and they are independent of shooting.
ES:
4th in xGF/60: NJ 1st by wide margin, then Wash, Dallas, Philly, Edm, Car, Nash bunched together
4th in HDCF/60.
5x5 (SVA):
2nd in xGF/60; 1st in xGA/60
5th in HDCF/60; 3rd in HDCA/60

Is this sustainable? Don't know. But it's not a hot shooting streak.

xGF is a mirage because they are banned from doing the playmaking the stat takes for granted which the rest of the league does, which is also why their shooting percentage relative to their xGF is always ridiculously out of whack. Shooting Percentage is a reliable predictor of sustainability. Teams have an average, and they always get back to it. The Flyers are far above their average. Their 5v5 average last year was bottom five in the league at 7.75%. Their current run in the top 5 will collapse. This always happens. You are always wrong. Every time.

 

[FlyerNutter]

The metrics are sky high and they are independent of shooting.
ES:
4th in xGF/60: NJ 1st by wide margin, then Wash, Dallas, Philly, Edm, Car, Nash bunched together
4th in HDCF/60.
5x5 (SVA):
2nd in xGF/60; 1st in xGA/60
5th in HDCF/60; 3rd in HDCA/60

Is this sustainable? Don't know. But it's not a hot shooting streak.

Do you condemn the hiring of John Tortorella?

 

[deadhead]

xGF is a mirage because they are banned from doing the playmaking the stat takes for granted which the rest of the league does, which is also why their shooting percentage relative to their xGF is always ridiculously out of whack. Shooting Percentage is a reliable predictor of sustainability. Teams have an average, and they always get back to it. The Flyers are far above their average. Their 5v5 average last year was bottom five in the league at 7.75%. Their current run in the top 5 will collapse. This always happens. You are always wrong. Every time.

Can you lend me your crystal ball?

 

[Beef Invictus]

Can you lend me your crystal ball?

It's called "history."

Every year since 2019, I think? We see this every single year. Probably further back than that. A team goes on a shooting heater for a month. People get excited. The heater ends and the team sucks again. Tale as old as hockey.

The Flyers have done this every year. They usually do it earlier in the year than this. You always take a series of victory laps while we point out that a team that usually lives in the bottom half of the league in shooting percentage will regress out of the top 5. Then they do.

It is going to happen again. Learn this time? Instead of forever jousting at this windmill in a desperate grab for anything to justify your insistence that management hasn't ever made mistakes?

Edit: More practically, they simply aren't doing anything out there that says "this is sustainable production." And so it won't be.

 

[deadhead]

Do you condemn the hiring of John Tortorella?

No. Why?

I think he's a first rate development HC, his problems has been with veteran laden teams that don't like his approach and are set in their ways. Turned around TB and CBJ, and will do the same here in a couple years.

I've listened to his pressers all season and what stands out is how patient and reasonable he is, but if you want cliches or someone who coddles players, you got the wrong guy. He doesn't get bent out of shape when they lose, just when they play badly - he knows they're a young team, they're going to make mistakes and be inconsistent. He sees these mistakes as teaching moments.

I'm seeing a bunch of young players making real progress, Cates, Brink, Foerster, Frost, York, Zamula, etc. Michkov's struggles aren't due to Torts, he's tried to protect the kid by lowering expectations - but the adjustment to the NHL, the NHL schedule and a new country is tough.

Edit: More practically, they simply aren't doing anything out there that says "this is sustainable production." And so it won't be.

Other than sustaining, what could they do that would say "sustainable production?"

 

[Beef Invictus]

No. Why?

I think he's a first rate development HC, his problems has been with veteran laden teams that don't like his approach and are set in their ways. Turned around TB and CBJ, and will do the same here in a couple years.

I've listened to his pressers all season and what stands out is how patient and reasonable he is, but if you want cliches or someone who coddles players, you got the wrong guy. He doesn't get bent out of shape when they lose, just when they play badly - he knows they're a young team, they're going to make mistakes and be inconsistent. He sees these mistakes as teaching moments.

I'm seeing a bunch of young players making real progress, Cates, Brink, Foerster, Frost, York, Zamula, etc. Michkov's struggles aren't due to Torts, he's tried to protect the kid by lowering expectations - but the adjustment to the NHL, the NHL schedule and a new country is tough.


Other than sustaining, what could they do that would say "sustainable production?"

Everything I've described repeatedly that every other team with sustainable production does, but that Tortorella bans? Have an actual offensive zone system? Not just stand around watching the carrier freelance? Working as a unit?

 

[trostol]

really need to get past this young team schtick

 

[FlyerNutter]

No. Why?

I think he's a first rate development HC, his problems has been with veteran laden teams that don't like his approach and are set in their ways. Turned around TB and CBJ, and will do the same here in a couple years.

I've listened to his pressers all season and what stands out is how patient and reasonable he is, but if you want cliches or someone who coddles players, you got the wrong guy. He doesn't get bent out of shape when they lose, just when they play badly - he knows they're a young team, they're going to make mistakes and be inconsistent. He sees these mistakes as teaching moments.

I'm seeing a bunch of young players making real progress, Cates, Brink, Foerster, Frost, York, Zamula, etc. Michkov's struggles aren't due to Torts, he's tried to protect the kid by lowering expectations - but the adjustment to the NHL, the NHL schedule and a new country is tough.


Other than sustaining, what could they do that would say "sustainable production?"

Would you condemn him moving into a front office role?

 

[dragonoffrost]

Would you condemn him moving into a front office role?

He's already vaguely in one. You can't tell me he isn't pulling some strings with this roster.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Whatever happened to having to see what Lycksell has?

 

[deadhead]

Would you condemn him moving into a front office role?

Other than advisor, yes.
I don't think he'd be interested and he isn't suited to such a role.

 

[Curufinwe]

They see him in practice!

 

[Beef Invictus]

Nothing screams "first rate development" hc like a guy who oversees sweeping regressions across the board and refuses to play one of the better dmen in the franchise because he got mad about a writer complimenting him.

 

[deadhead]

Wait, Andrae is now "one of the better dmen in the franchise" over a 9 game stretch?