2024-25 Roster Thread #1: The Beginninging

[blackjackmulligan]

Two different contexts.

One is the concept of "elite" in terms of drafting players, do you need generational talents that you can only get with a #1 pick or at best the top 3 or so, or very good players you can usually get in the top 15 picks and sometimes in the top 40.

The second is terms of a specific skill compared to peers. Cates may have been elite defensively, but that doesn't make him an elite player.


Maybe. I've found out that these kind of predictions don't have 100% success.

Is it a better % than the future lineups you always post?

 

[Beef Invictus]

View attachment 913580

He kinda moved in that direction last season!

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Maybe you need to drop the knee jerk responses and smart ass comments (at least the ones that are just obnoxious, clever repartee is always welcome).

If you understood what I was saying, it wasn't as obtuse as you imply.

The negativity here is so automatic it's tiresome, as frustrating as this team has been, it's not Buffalo or CBJ since Torts left (after him it became a toxic dump).

At the very least it is close. Buffalo and the Flyers have piss poor owners and management. I am sure you disagree even though the evidence shows otherwise.

Do you think other teams in the league think highly of the Flyers and their management?

Also, would you play Cates over GH?

 

[eramosat]

Yep. There is no such thing as actually treading water if you're a negative offensively. You're still sinking inevitably, just slower. Someone else with him will need to be good enough to push scoring up.

Just asking. What was the situation, or context, in which Cates did ok in his rookie season, offensively? I do not remember his linemates, nor usage, nor luck, so well. Did he get played up the line-up, I think I remember that some. But then, he would have had to pull some weight to do so.

P.S. And how did that fall off so badly last season?

 

[Magua]

He kinda moved in that direction last season!

The direction of only barely shooting less than Pastrnak and Forsberg?

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

Z is one acceptable answer where size did actually matter. He did everything else at an incredible level and, oh yeah, his size allowed him to suppress half the ice in the defensive zone.

As much as I hated watching broons boring defensive style, prime chara could not only suppress half the dzone but had really underrated outlet pass.

 

[Starat327]

I was being IRONIC, Statatarat.

I know, honey bunny.

 

[deadhead]

Cates isn't that bad offensively, if you played him with Farabee and Brink, I suspect he'd give you top 3C production (which actually isn't that much, the median 3rd line forward (#240) produced 23 ES points, the median 2nd line (#144) 33 ES points).

Cates had 28 ES points as a rookie, 14 in his last 38 games last season (when he was healthy) which is similar production.

Farabee/Brink would be perfect for him, Brink is a playmaker, Farabee a shooter, and Cates can CYA for them. It would likely be an above average 3rd line.

Which is why keeping Luchanko up is puzzling, Torts must really love him b/c I don't see where he'd be this great improvement over Cates unless he's better than we think.

 

[deadhead]

Buffalo has more wins in the last several years than the Flyers

They should.
Dahlin #1
Power #1
Byram #4 (Mittlestadt trade)
Cozens #7
Quinn #8
Benson #13
Krebs #17 (Eichel trade)
Tuch #18 (Eichel trade)
Thompson #26 (ROR trade)
Kulich #28
Jokiharju #29 (Nylander trade)
Samuelson #32
Peterka #34
Levi (Reinhart trade)

 

[deadhead]

Just asking. What was the situation, or context, in which Cates did ok in his rookie season, offensively? I do not remember his linemates, nor usage, nor luck, so well. Did he get played up the line-up, I think I remember that some. But then, he would have had to pull some weight to do so.

P.S. And how did that fall off so badly last season?

He was hurt to start last season, when he came back the second half:
xGF 63.84%, HDCF 64.84%, pp/60: 1.68

In 2022-23:
TK 390
Farabee 369
Tippett 248
Laughton 231
Hayes 209
Allison 181
MacEwen 162
JVR 97
Deslauriers 86

 

[JojoTheWhale]

As much as I hated watching broons boring defensive style, prime chara could not only suppress half the dzone but had really underrated outlet pass.

That looks amazing for a career, right? Nothing in front of the net, his effective reach extends all the way out toward the point, and severely suppressed almost everything below the circles.

What if I said that's only for his Age 30-42 seasons?

And the offensive half isn't as good of course. But it's still good!

 

[Starat327]

That looks amazing for a career, right? Nothing in front of the net and severely suppressed almost everything below the circles. What if I said that's only for his Age 30-42 seasons?

And the offensive half isn't as good of course. But it's still good!

Feels non elite to me.

 

[prototypical4thliner]

They should.
Dahlin #1
Power #1
Byram #4 (Mittlestadt trade)
Cozens #7
Quinn #8
Benson #13
Krebs #17 (Eichel trade)
Tuch #18 (Eichel trade)
Thompson #26 (ROR trade)
Kulich #28
Jokiharju #29 (Nylander trade)
Samuelson #32
Peterka #34
Levi (Reinhart trade)

You’re proving our point about not embracing a strategy that leaves us in purgatory.

That looks amazing for a career, right? Nothing in front of the net, his effective reach extends all the way out toward the point, and severely suppressed almost everything below the circles.

What if I said that's only for his Age 30-42 seasons?

And the offensive half isn't as good of course. But it's still good!

Get ‘em Jojo

 

[Beef Invictus]

Just asking. What was the situation, or context, in which Cates did ok in his rookie season, offensively? I do not remember his linemates, nor usage, nor luck, so well. Did he get played up the line-up, I think I remember that some. But then, he would have had to pull some weight to do so.

P.S. And how did that fall off so badly last season?

He played up in the lineup. He spent most of the season with top 6 offensive talent and got a ton of TOI. Once you looked at actual production rates, things weren't so nice

Last season he ceased to get that usage

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Get ‘em Jojo

The only thing I'm getting is an excellent Kellerpils from the fridge in a sec here.

 

[Beef Invictus]

The direction of only barely shooting less than Pastrnak and Forsberg?

He sometimes passed in the Offensive Zone! This was an improvement over Never!

Tippett seems the kind of Chel player who just holds One-Timer and waits the second he enters the zone

 

[freakydallas13]

Cates isn't that bad offensively, if you played him with Farabee and Brink, I suspect he'd give you top 3C production (which actually isn't that much, the median 3rd line forward (#240) produced 23 ES points, the median 2nd line (#144) 33 ES points).

I mean, yeah. If you played him with players who score more than him, he'll score more. That's true of every forward in the league..

But Brink and Farabee would be better off with someone who, you know, actually creates offence on their own, not someone who will drag their numbers down for the sake of inflating Cates'.

 

[Beef Invictus]

As much as I hated watching broons boring defensive style, prime chara could not only suppress half the dzone but had really underrated outlet pass.

They lowkey had the best schemed transition for a few years until Cooper got rolling, too. I did enjoy that

 

[trostol]

As I said way back..Cates is a dime a dozen player...

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Feels non elite to me.

well its no Cates... thats for sure...

 

[prototypical4thliner]

The only thing I'm getting is an excellent Kellerpils from the fridge in a sec here.

Report to the Menu for updates as to what this is doing to me.

** spoiler alert, I’m drinking PUMPKIN beer **

 

[deadhead]

So TK, Tippett, Farabee, are top 6 talent? Just checking.
Cates spent 50% of his minutes with these three, so 50% with bottom six talent in 2022-23.

1.37 pp/60. that was 211th of all forwards with 800+ 5x5 minutes.
240th is the median 3rd line forward, 1.17.
So Cates basically scored at a 3rd line rate.
If you look at counts, 25 points at 5x5, which was 172nd among all forward.
240th was 17 points.
TOI helped his scoring a little, but not substantially.

I think people overestimate how much 3rd line forwards actually score.

 

[freakydallas13]

I for one can't wait for the season to start so we can all argue about all the new minutiae a brand new season brings, instead of the same old minutiae we rehash all offseason every offseason.

 

[eramosat]

He played up in the lineup. He spent most of the season with top 6 offensive talent and got a ton of TOI. Once you looked at actual production rates, things weren't so nice

Last season he ceased to get that usage

so. you mean...minute by minute relative O production was poor? Ok...last season's output would certainly support that, he was lost amongst his linemates to produce much, that I can recall. But I'm sorry to think his initial great start was entirely a mirage....here's hoping.

Is maybe Farabee also a mirage? That would be a harder pill to swallow, but reasonable.

 

[eramosat]

As I said way back..Cates is a dime a dozen player...

this is I did not consider in his rookie season. and last season, well, for sure.

Let's see what year 3 does. I think it is abnormal to be a rookie with well developed defensive forward tendancies...and that he also managed to step his way up the lineup offensively was definitely to his credit skill. 3rd year in the show is worthy of more adjustments, and showing you belong, in your chosen niche...

Cheers