2024-25 Roster Thread #1: The Beginninging

[TB87]

Have you guys figured out Deadheads connection to the team yet?

Clarke’s monkeys uncle

 

[prototypical4thliner]

At 18? of course not. Down the road, who knows?

The fact they're even looking at him says they're not seriously trying to compete this season.

Jett being on the team speaks to our paltry center depth and him being on the roster gives Torts a better chance to win this year than Cates or Laughton in that role. THAT is why he is on the team.

This has nothing to do with the future. He has holes in his game that are fixable, without regard to quality of competition. He can develop a harder, quicker, more accurate shot in juniors.

 

[Chicken N Raffls]

I’m counting this as a group win. Well done everyone involved. Now no one go and ruin it.

 

[prototypical4thliner]

Big Z wasn't that good is his prime is the hockey equivalent of "they control the weather".

Z is one acceptable answer where size did actually matter. He did everything else at an incredible level and, oh yeah, his size allowed him to suppress half the ice in the defensive zone.

 

[freakydallas13]

Hey, what can I say, freakydallas13 is out there.
Don't know where he came up with his Cates is "elite" stuff.

I'm exaggerating a bit, but I seem to recall a certain someone hyping up Cates defense as elite, though to be honest I don't remember if that was the exact word you used. To check that I'd have to go back through your.....voluminous....post history to check it, and ain't nobody got time for that.

It's kind of a genius strategy really when you think about it. You say so many outlandish things so often, that you can plausibly deny stuff and ask people to quote you specifically when you are called out, knowing full well no one wants to spend the time sifting through the vast desert of your posts to find the exact wording of something you said months, or ever years ago.

Bravo, honestly. It's a nearly foolproof plan to say whatever you want without consequence.

 

[deadhead]

I'm exaggerating a bit, but I seem to recall a certain someone hyping up Cates defense as elite, though to be honest I don't remember if that was the exact word you used. To check that I'd have to go back through your.....voluminous....post history to check it, and ain't nobody got time for that.

It's kind of a genius strategy really when you think about it. You say so many outlandish things so often, that you can play plausible deny stuff and ask people to quote you specifically when you are called out, knowing full well no one wants to spend the time sifting through the vast desert of your posts to find the exact wording of something you said months, or ever years ago.

Bravo, honestly. It's a nearly foolproof plan to say whatever you want without consequence.

The Metrics guys had Cates at 99% defensively in 2022-23 playing center, the same for Foerster last year at wing.
Cates was frequently matched against 1Cs that year, while Frost was being sheltered.

I posted it, I didn't create it.

The problem for Cates is he's below average speed and has a limited offensive skill set.
Which limits his upside and makes him better suited for LW in the long run.

 

[Beef Invictus]

The Metrics guys had Cates at 99% defensively in 2022-23 playing center, the same for Foerster last year at wing.
Cates was frequently matched against 1Cs that year, while Frost was being sheltered.

I posted it, I didn't create it.

The problem for Cates is he's below average speed and has a limited offensive skill set.
Which limits his upside and makes him better suited for LW in the long run.

So Cates is elite and Bergeron/Chara were not?

 

[deadhead]

Jett being on the team speaks to our paltry center depth and him being on the roster gives Torts a better chance to win this year than Cates or Laughton in that role. THAT is why he is on the team.

This has nothing to do with the future. He has holes in his game that are fixable, without regard to quality of competition. He can develop a harder, quicker, more accurate shot in juniors.

The only way Luchanko helps us win is he's better than expected, in that case, he should be in the NHL - that is, he's above average defensively and a 30+ ES point 3C.

Otherwise, you can play Cates at 3C, get above average defense and 20-25 points.

 

[Chicken N Raffls]

I'm exaggerating a bit, but I seem to recall a certain someone hyping up Cates defense as elite, though to be honest I don't remember if that was the exact word you used. To check that I'd have to go back through your.....voluminous....post history to check it, and ain't nobody got time for that.

It's kind of a genius strategy really when you think about it. You say so many outlandish things so often, that you can plausibly deny stuff and ask people to quote you specifically when you are called out, knowing full well no one wants to spend the time sifting through the vast desert of your posts to find the exact wording of something you said months, or ever years ago.

Bravo, honestly. It's a nearly foolproof plan to say whatever you want without consequence.

It's actually not hard to look up. It was definitely said, and more than once.

 

[deadhead]

Nothing this team has done for years suggests this. The opposite, actually.

If they're not trying to compete then why weren't Laughton, Seeler, and Hathaway turned into picks? Either they aren't doing what you say, or they're incompetent at doing it, or both.

(Both)

Because they don't want young players saddled with AHL linemates or defensive partners.
That certainly won't help their development.

Notice no one claimed our waivers, I mean if Chicago or San Jose can't use them . . .

It's actually not hard to look up. It was definitely said, and more than once.

Because it was reported by those sites y'all use when they prove your points.

 

[freakydallas13]

The Metrics guys had Cates at 99% defensively in 2022-23 playing center, the same for Foerster last year at wing.
Cates was frequently matched against 1Cs that year, while Frost was being sheltered.

I posted it, I didn't create it.

The problem for Cates is he's below average speed and has a limited offensive skill set.
Which limits his upside and makes him better suited for LW in the long run.

Wait wait wait, I just want this to be on the record here: you're saying the numbers say Cates is elite defensively, but Bergeron wasn't? Yes or no answer only, if you please.

 

[trostol]

ahh.. so it is someone elses fault..got it

 

[prototypical4thliner]

The only way Luchanko helps us win is he's better than expected, in that case, he should be in the NHL - that is, he's above average defensively and a 30+ ES point 3C.

Otherwise, you can play Cates at 3C, get above average defense and 20-25 points.

Cates is not now, nor at any point, a good measuring point for the organizations top center prospect.

Luchanko has an obvious hole to his game that is very exploitable at the NHL level at current, which is going to crush his ability to produce offensively. Putting an 18 year old in that position is not good development. Hard stop.

 

[freakydallas13]

Because it was reported by those sites y'all use when they prove your points.

OOOHHHH wait, I see your strategy here. "It's not me saying Cates is elite defensively, it's the numbers! Blame the numbers, not the messenger!"

Sneaky, but you you lack the conviction to actually say something you know you'll get laughed at for.

You're still on the hook for saying Bergeron was elite though, you have to own that take.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Cates was frequently matched against 1Cs that year

I mean....this is one of those things that is technically true, but I find that looking at it in bar form helps to illustrate the scale of the difference:

That is difficult QualComp. But how big of a difference does it actually make when you take the whole sample?

 

[Starat327]

View attachment 913527

Just nuke this thread.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Just nuke this thread.

I don't want to create another hurricane.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

At 18? of course not. Down the road, who knows?

The fact they're even looking at him says they're not seriously trying to compete this season.

Pretty much, most studies of drafting says it's pretty random.
Good drafters can garner a little edge, but even the best drafters miss more than they hit.
Much like finance, where the myth of the brilliant financial analyst has been pretty much debunked.

Call BS on that, as it is the main reason he is on the roster. The coach/Co-GM thinks he can help him win.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I don't want to create another hurricane.

Don't worry. With every subsequent Phillies win, we're adding a DancingPanther Who Does Not Believe. In 2 weeks, no one will be able to tell the posts apart enough to argue.

This is the evolved form of Playoff Avatars.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Because they don't want young players saddled with AHL linemates or defensive partners.
That certainly won't help their development.

Notice no one claimed our waivers, I mean if Chicago or San Jose can't use them . . .


Because it was reported by those sites y'all use when they prove your points.

Your waivers argument has been debunked by every single game NAK and Ghost have played. You have been proven wrong on this hundreds of times.


As to the first point: Ah. Incompetent it is, then.

 

[deadhead]

 

[freakydallas13]

View attachment 913533

That's not even from last season. It's from the previous season when Cates was below the 25th percentile in offence (aka, a 4th liner).

 

[deadhead]

Evolving-Hockey.com | Player Pages

Player profile page for players in the NHL

evolving-hockey.com

Evolving-Hockey’s xG RAPM model attempts to isolate the impact that each player has on his club’s expected goal differential at even strength, stripping out outside factors like linemates, quality of competition, faceoffs and overall environment. It also allows us to isolate and evaluate a player’s offensive impact and his defensive impact — the two halves of the xG impact whole. Which means that by using the RAPM model, it’s possible to estimate which players actually helped their clubs suppress scoring chances the best.

So where did Cates rank among qualifying NHL forwards? No. 2.

He graded out as the second-best defensive forward in all of hockey in 2022-23 by the model, behind only Dallas defensive specialist Radek Faksa.

Now, the RAPM model isn’t perfect, and there have been other cases where a rookie has graded out exceptionally well by its defensive metrics, and in retrospect it wasn’t an accurate evaluation of his true talent. For example, Jesperi Kotkaniemi graded out as a close-to-elite defensive forward in 2018-19 (86th percentile in impact) and even received some Selke buzz from particularly stat-oriented folks. But Kotkaniemi was a case of a player putting up great defensive results in a clearly sheltered role; Kotkaniemi may have been crushing third-line competition, but the Montreal Canadiens were keeping him away from first-liners. The model guessed that he would be just as strong had he been given tougher minutes — but when he graded out as the eighth-worst defensive forward the following season by the same model, it became apparent that was not the case. He wasn’t yet ready to handle the best.

Cates, on the other hand, basically got thrown to the wolves by Tortorella in his rookie season. There was no sheltering to be found — Cates faced first-liners more than any other group. In fact, there’s a pretty easy case to make that no Flyers forward in 2022-23 faced tougher minutes than Cates, given the quality of competition he faced and the sheer number of defensive zone faceoffs he was sent out to help handle (a team-high 414 of them, per Evolving-Hockey).

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4759308/2023/08/09/flyers-noah-cates/

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Cates is not now, nor at any point, a good measuring point for the organizations top center prospect.

Luchanko has an obvious hole to his game that is very exploitable at the NHL level at current, which is going to crush his ability to produce offensively. Putting an 18 year old in that position is not good development. Hard stop.

Torts enters chat...