2024-25 Roster Thread #1: The Beginninging

[FLYguy3911]

Hard to hit 100 points when you miss a month+.

I'm pretty against 9 game trials unless it's a really unique case (usually a 19 year old). The last time the team saw Jett play in a regular season game, they thought he was a late first rounder. Chances are he didn't go from that to NHL player in 6 months.

 

[HeadLiceHatty]

Yeah maybe. I haven't seen anything from him that screams to me he will be that much of a contributer at 19.

He seems like a run of the mill mid forst rounder that could turn into a solid 2C one day or easily end up like Laughton, depending on how his development goes.

Sorry if that's too negative for you.

I don't see anything elite in his game, but you need solid 2C types that you can keep cost controlled to compete for a championship. He's going to be extremely useful and he's a great skater / compete level guy, you absolutely need those guys to win. Michkov's are more important but these guys have a place on championship teams.

Hard to hit 100 points when you miss a month+.

I'm pretty against 9 game trials unless it's a really unique case (usually a 19 year old). The last time the team saw Jett play in a regular season game, they thought he was a late first rounder. Chances are he didn't go from that to NHL player in 6 months.

As long as he paces for it, it means his offensive game took a step.

 

[Hextallent63]

Farabee/Couts/TK
Tippett/Frost/Michkov
Foerster/Luchenko/Brink
Laughton/Cates/Hathaway
Poehling,DL,whoever.

For 9 at least.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

I don't see anything elite in his game, but you need solid 2C types that you can keep cost controlled to compete for a championship. He's going to be extremely useful and he's a great skater / compete level guy, you absolutely need those guys to win. Michkov's are more important but these guys have a place on championship teams.

If he comes into the league at 19 (especially a very young 19) and contributes "35-40 points with solid D in his rookie year" and only ends up a "solid 2C type" I would feel like that was a pretty huge failure on the development staff.

19-Year Old NHL Players - Regular Season Stats

19-year old NHL player stats. NHL player statistics segmented by age group.

www.quanthockey.com

 

[HeadLiceHatty]

If he comes into the league at 19 (especially a very young 19) and contributes "35-40 points with solid D in his rookie year" and only ends up a "solid 2C type" I would feel like that was a pretty huge failure on the development staff.

19-Year Old NHL Players - Regular Season Stats

19-year old NHL player stats. NHL player statistics segmented by age group.

www.quanthockey.com

I don't see the offensive potential for that much more, his peak potential is a very, very good 2C imo.

 

[FLYguy3911]

I guess I don't really see the appeal of a trial other than shiny new toy syndrome. You're more likely to talk yourself into keeping a player that probably isn't ready than the other way around, especially if the timing of his best games is towards the end. Also squeezes a waiver eligible player off the roster.

100 points is a nice accomplishment, but the Flyers once had a first rounder score 100+ points in the OHL in his D+1 season and he was still getting healthy scratched in the NHL in his D+7 season.

Bonk improved his production exponentially, but did he actually get better offensively? Usage + teammates can get any mildly skilled player over a threshold. We'll have to see actual tangible development.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

I don't see the offensive potential for that much more, his peak potential is a very, very good 2C imo.

Yes I don't see it either. What I am saying is the majority of player who were capable of putting up 35-40 as a young 19 year old ended up being a lot better then "solid 2Cs".

There aren't many prospects that are able to put up those sorts of totals at 19 with good defence, that don't end up being first line players.

 

[Magua]

If Luchanko's most likely scenario was 2C -- and 2C on a contender, not because the entire organization only has 2 centers under the age of 32 -- he'd have gone 5 spots higher and not been ranked a ~20th overall player, although that's not always meaningful, and I think he's better than some of those players. But I don't think we'll look back and say the Flyers pulled a fast one on the league.

It's evergreen that people grossly overestimate the skills needed to be a "top 4" defender or "2nd line center." In preseason, Luchanko has confirmed every last thing I knew about his game, better or worse. And his strengths look to translate up already! But he's exactly who I thought he was in June, slightly more fast-tracked (although we previously discussed how physically mature he was, not necessarily a good thing) than I thought:

I've seen it said many times already that Luchanko is an elite skater. Celebrini isn't even an elite skater. There were maybe 2-3 taken in the 1st. My opinion? His biggest strength as a skater is off-puck when allowed a few strides/crossovers. I'd call his footwork more okay, but he can get serious build up power. I also just buried the lede. So much of his skating is without the puck or accelerating into windows for a puck. But I don't see a particularly dangerous transition player. He's not really used as a weapon.

My biggest issue that hasn't resolved -- and @VladDrag had a similar thought -- is he has puck handling issues at top speed or in traffic. Quite a bit of feeling for pucks or bobbling (it's there even on some good plays). He is a quick surveyor passing to open guys, and he has some touch, but sometimes I have this feeling his passes are out of necessity. He looks nervy attacking guys 1 on 1 or when sticks get close. Not a lot in the way of feints or maneuvering. Instantly, if you're talking "ceilings," that's the thing to which I'll point. Short area, small space skill is king.

 

[CerpinTaxt]

Farabee/Couts/TK
Tippett/Frost/Michkov
Foerster/Luchenko/Brink
Laughton/Cates/Hathaway
Poehling,DL,whoever.

For 9 at least.

Poehling better than cates at center. Man if laughton had been moved for some extra assets and the 4th line was cates-poehling-hathaway that would of been a pretty good forward group for the season.

 

[Tripod]

Poehling better than cates at center. Man if laughton had been moved for some extra assets and the 4th line was cates-poehling-hathaway that would of been a pretty good forward group for the season.

It still can be....once Laughton is moved to #3C and Jett is sent back.

 

[Chicken N Raffls]

Hard to hit 100 points when you miss a month+.

I'm pretty against 9 game trials unless it's a really unique case (usually a 19 year old). The last time the team saw Jett play in a regular season game, they thought he was a late first rounder. Chances are he didn't go from that to NHL player in 6 months.

I'll bet you think this is all some grand PR conspiracy! I'll go full tinfoil though. If he makes the team, it's 100% TORTS driven.

Then again, how much tinfoil do you need to believe that when his "superiors" were hired with the stipulation of him being untouchable?

 

[deadhead]

I guess I don't really see the appeal of a trial other than shiny new toy syndrome. You're more likely to talk yourself into keeping a player that probably isn't ready than the other way around, especially if the timing of his best games is towards the end. Also squeezes a waiver eligible player off the roster.

100 points is a nice accomplishment, but the Flyers once had a first rounder score 100+ points in the OHL in his D+1 season and he was still getting healthy scratched in the NHL in his D+7 season.

Bonk improved his production exponentially, but did he actually get better offensively? Usage + teammates can get any mildly skilled player over a threshold. We'll have to see actual tangible development.

Bonk improved his ES production substantially (the PP I don't think translates to the NHL).
2022-23: 67g 7-12 19
2023-24: 60g 9-20 29

He's not going to be the lead dog offensively on a pair, but he's skilled enough to garner 20+ points in the NHL.

 

[deadhead]

If Luchanko's most likely scenario was 2C -- and 2C on a contender, not because the entire organization only has 2 centers under the age of 32 -- he'd have gone 5 spots higher and not been ranked a ~20th overall player, although that's not always meaningful, and I think he's better than some of those players. But I don't think we'll look back and say the Flyers pulled a fast one on the league.

It's evergreen that people grossly overestimate the skills needed to be a "top 4" defender or "2nd line center." In preseason, Luchanko has confirmed every last thing I knew about his game, better or worse. And his strengths look to translate up already! But he's exactly who I thought he was in June, slightly more fast-tracked (although we previously discussed how physically mature he was, not necessarily a good thing) than I thought:

He wasn't physically mature before last season, he added 10-15 lbs between last summer and the Combine (people expected him to weigh in the 170s).

I think it's great for him to play in a few exhibition games and scrimmages, he'll have a much better idea of what he has to work on to prepare to play in the NHL next season.

But right now he's not as good as Cates or Laughton, struggling in the NHL won't help his development and won't help the team win. So it makes zero sense.

 

[Magua]

He wasn't physically mature before last season, he added 10-15 lbs between last summer and the Combine (people expected him to weigh in the 170s)

He was 5’11 and 187lbs at the Combine, along with being near the top of every strength test. That’s pretty damn physically mature for an August birthday. I know, I know, next preseason the Flyers will say he gained 17lbs of muscle, but that’s close to ideal playing weight. He appears to be able to hang in that area.

But right now he's not as good as Cates or Laughton

At center, I’m not even sure that’s true. Cates is a 4th liner through and through, and Laughton was an outright negative last year. He very well could be better, paired with Brink+Farabee! I also don’t think that should ever factor into the decision to rush a player, especially one who needs skill growth.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Bonk improved his ES production substantially (the PP I don't think translates to the NHL).
2022-23: 67g 7-12 19
2023-24: 60g 9-20 29

He's not going to be the lead dog offensively on a pair, but he's skilled enough to garner 20+ points in the NHL.

Scoring is up. 20 Points is late career Olli Määttä territory. He was a 1st rounder with Perreault on the board.

 

[Starat327]

Scoring is up. 20 Points is late career Olli Määttä territory. He was a 1st rounder with Perreault on the board.

Oh no, Jojo.

 

[usahockey22flyers]

If Luchanko's most likely scenario was 2C -- and 2C on a contender, not because the entire organization only has 2 centers under the age of 32 -- he'd have gone 5 spots higher and not been ranked a ~20th overall player, although that's not always meaningful, and I think he's better than some of those players. But I don't think we'll look back and say the Flyers pulled a fast one on the league.

It's evergreen that people grossly overestimate the skills needed to be a "top 4" defender or "2nd line center." In preseason, Luchanko has confirmed every last thing I knew about his game, better or worse. And his strengths look to translate up already! But he's exactly who I thought he was in June, slightly more fast-tracked (although we previously discussed how physically mature he was, not necessarily a good thing) than I thought:

I think his footwork is great, he's so quick to pivot, crossovers are clean, and top end speed is just fun to watch.

He's a lot of fun to watch in person. It pops.

 

[Magua]

I don’t actually think Bonk was bad this preseason for his age. I’ve been clear from the jump, I think his skill is above my threshold. He’s not a plug.

But this is what Keith Jones said the other week: “He’s a pro. It’s going to be a difficult thing to keep him heading back to juniors but that’s ultimately where I see him going. But I want to make sure he comes in here and understands that the world is his oyster, that he can do some special things on the ice.”

Wild expectations.

Scoring is up. 20 Points is late career Olli Määttä territory. He was a 1st rounder with Perreault on the board.

You won’t see Tanner Molendyk mentioned ever — elite skater + analytics darling — but the funniest outcome is if they whiffed the defensive fit pick too. It would be a whiff on 3 levels: BPA, position, and intra-team scouting.

 

[HeadLiceHatty]

I don’t actually think Bonk was bad this preseason for his age. I’ve been clear from the jump, I think his skill is above my threshold. He’s not a plug.

But this is what Keith Jones said the other week: “He’s a pro. It’s going to be a difficult thing to keep him heading back to juniors but that’s ultimately where I see him going. But I want to make sure he comes in here and understands that the world is his oyster, that he can do some special things on the ice.”

Wild expectations.



You won’t see Tanner Molendyk mentioned ever — elite skater + analytics darling — but the funniest outcome is if they whiffed the defensive fit pick too. It would be a whiff on 3 levels: BPA, position, and intra-team scouting.

I think Bonk can be that steady #2 that compliments an elite offensive 1D, or a guy who carries the 2nd pairing if he hits, and he's definitely trending that way since he was drafted.

 

[Magua]

I think his footwork is great, he's so quick to pivot, crossovers are clean, and top end speed is just fun to watch.

He’s got a high end top gear and multi-crossover pop. The point I keep emphasizing is it’s not WITH the puck, or it’s into a lane for someone to give it to him. It stood out on Guelph how little the fastest guy and best player on the team was used to solo transition it. Hopefully, he makes some progress there. But that’s not all (or even mostly) his skating.

I don’t know how you’re defining footwork, but I’m not defining it as crossovers. I’m talking stop/starts, edges, step patterning. It’s fine, but I do find his lower half on the stiff side. A lot of it is deception; he doesn’t have much wiggle. That’s a complicated chaining of skills.

I think Bonk can be that steady #2 that compliments an elite offensive 1D, or a guy who carries the 2nd pairing if he hits, and he's definitely trending that way since he was drafted.

So, he needs an elite offensive guy (he ain’t coming) to be a top pair defender, but he can carry a 2nd pair? Carry it how? When the distinction between 1st and 2nd pair usage is blurred today?

As I said, the talent level to be this kind of player is understated. You’re basically telling me his impacts will be Sanheim-level, shift the adjectives around. We did this with Provorov (and then some), York…..Bonk’s profile isn’t even that.

 

[Starat327]

He’s got a high end top gear and multi-crossover pop. The point I keep emphasizing is it’s not WITH the puck, or it’s into a lane for someone to give it to him. It stood out on Guelph how little the fastest guy and best player on the team was used to solo transition it. Hopefully, he makes some progress there. But that’s not all (or even mostly) his skating.

I don’t know how you’re defining footwork, but I’m not defining it as crossovers. I’m talking stop/starts, edges, step patterning. It’s fine, but I do find his lower half on the stiff side. A lot of it is deception; he doesn’t have much wiggle. That’s a complicated chaining of skills.



So, he needs an elite offensive guy (he ain’t coming) to be a top pair defender, but he can carry a 2nd pair? Carry it how? When the distinction between 1st and 2nd pair usage is blurred today?

As I said, the talent level to be this kind of player is understated. You’re basically telling me his impacts will be Sanheim-level, shift the adjectives around. We did this with Provorov (and then some), York…..Bonk’s profile isn’t even that.

The mohicans were wrong about you, and i'll never forgive them for that.

 

[deadhead]

Scoring is up. 20 Points is late career Olli Määttä territory. He was a 1st rounder with Perreault on the board.

Only 32 D-men had 30 or more ES points last season.
Another 60 scored between 20-29.

A plus defender who scores 20+ at ES is a top 3 D-man.

 

[Starat327]

Well f***. After all these years of denying it. we have a verbal admission that Ghost is a top 3 D man.

 

[Cody Webster]

Well f***. After all these years of denying it. we have a verbal admission that Ghost is a top 3 D man. View attachment 910933

But what they don't show here is his TOI and his match ups. They limit his ice time and protect him from the top lines because he just isn't good enough

 

[prototypical4thliner]

Well f***. After all these years of denying it. we have a verbal admission that Ghost is a top 3 D man. View attachment 910933

That is not how any of this works.

I think Bonk can be that steady #2 that compliments an elite offensive 1D, or a guy who carries the 2nd pairing if he hits, and he's definitely trending that way since he was drafted.

Honestly value the latter concept over the former. The former is Brayden Coburn or Matt Carle.