2024-25 Roster Thread #1: The Beginninging

[usahockey22flyers]

For sure - it would be awesome if they found an NHL player in McDonald. Most posters on this board would want to see every single prospect turn into an NHL player. That's not really the point I was making.

you mind elaborating? I think I missed your point my bad

 

[JojoTheWhale]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1831856808056778972

Asking for an ounce of brutally honest self-evaluation. Would settle for a gram.

 

[Beef Invictus]

They are going to blow more relationships this year too

 

[freakydallas13]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1831856808056778972

Asking for an ounce of brutally honest self-evaluation. Would settle for a gram.

Wtf do the Flyers expect to happen here?

 

[ponder719]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1831856808056778972

Asking for an ounce of brutally honest self-evaluation. Would settle for a gram.

I think you'd have an easier time finding a fifth.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Wtf do the Flyers expect to happen here?

They don't know. They'll be dicks to him and expect it to work, then it won't and they'll be confused

 

[trostol]

it'll be "if he doesn't want to be a Flyer, we don't want him " all over again but not see that they..are the ones that are wrong

 

[blackjackmulligan]

They don't know. They'll be dicks to him and expect it to work, then it won't and they'll be confused

He us under contract and the Flyers expect him to report. How are they in the wrong here?

I actually think it would be awesome if the hype around McDonald is warranted. This team should be finding, developing, and eventually playing these later round picks into 3rd No need to overpay for these veterans.

Obviously he's got a long way to go, but he's improved tremendously since I saw him - even in a calendar year. Looked like a man amongst boys all week at Dev Camp!

Flyers are so bad at drafting and developing they have major issues even finding 3rd pair and 4th line guys.

Flyers will always overpay for vets sadly. Just look at the 4th line and how much cash they make.

 

[VladDrag]

you mind elaborating? I think I missed your point my bad

Sure, and no problem.

Sometimes last year, Flahr/Briere et al, started pumping up Hunter McDonald as a prospect. And they did this unprompted, without any leading questions. It's clear that they think they have a player in McDonald -- and that's okay, in fact that's a good thing.

Based on his historical profile and comparison to others with that same type of profile, the likelihood of him becoming a 5/6 defenseman is so small -- it's like his 99th percentile outcome. This doesn't mean it won't happen, it only means he'll be one of the only players in the NHL who took that type of route to get there. He could be a diamond in the rough. Again that's good.

Based on historical evidence, this team will give him every opportunity to reach that 99th percentile outcome. They'll play him heavy minutes in the AHL, they'll promote him at the expense of others who may have a higher ceiling.

But, they don't do this with every prospect - they only seem to do it with defensive first, meat and potatoes type players. The examples go back to drafting of Couts. Couts had to go to FO to ask for an offensive role, despite scoring (basically) 100 points two consecutive years in the Q. They were content on keeping him as a defensive specialist. Laughton wasn't given PP time, and was viewed as a defensive specialist (ever single model shows that Laughton is a better offensive player than defensive player). NAK, despite leading the AHL in ES scoring was also not given PP time -- all because he was viewed as a bottom-6 player in the NHL. Hagg got preferential treatment over Sanheim, as did Provy, as did washed up AHL defensemen (forgetting the name of the player who got to play PP1 in the AHL ahead of Sanheim). In 19-20 Twarynski made the team out of camp instead of Frost. Mark Friedman (I think it was him -- could have been another defenseman) played right wing over David Kase. Frost is still not viewed as a quality piece. Brink is not getting opportunity to play... I could keep going.


My point is this, they always seem to have overrate these meat and potatoes type players and underrate the players who actually have a chance to play higher in the lineup. They give these guys every opportunity to develop, but do not do the same for others. This will continue until the entire front office is wiped out -- this is nothing about McDonald himself, it's about how the team has been operating for 10+ years.

 

[Curufinwe]

Wtf do the Flyers expect to happen here?

To toll his contract for 24-25.

 

[Danko]

On one hand the flyers probably were dicks to him...on the other hand this is an exclusive job its not like anyone can be an NHL goalie...expect to pay some dues on the way up.

 

[usahockey22flyers]

Sure, and no problem.

Sometimes last year, Flahr/Briere et al, started pumping up Hunter McDonald as a prospect. And they did this unprompted, without any leading questions. It's clear that they think they have a player in McDonald -- and that's okay, in fact that's a good thing.

Based on his historical profile and comparison to others with that same type of profile, the likelihood of him becoming a 5/6 defenseman is so small -- it's like his 99th percentile outcome. This doesn't mean it won't happen, it only means he'll be one of the only players in the NHL who took that type of route to get there. He could be a diamond in the rough. Again that's good.

Based on historical evidence, this team will give him every opportunity to reach that 99th percentile outcome. They'll play him heavy minutes in the AHL, they'll promote him at the expense of others who may have a higher ceiling.

But, they don't do this with every prospect - they only seem to do it with defensive first, meat and potatoes type players. The examples go back to drafting of Couts. Couts had to go to FO to ask for an offensive role, despite scoring (basically) 100 points two consecutive years in the Q. They were content on keeping him as a defensive specialist. Laughton wasn't given PP time, and was viewed as a defensive specialist (ever single model shows that Laughton is a better offensive player than defensive player). NAK, despite leading the AHL in ES scoring was also not given PP time -- all because he was viewed as a bottom-6 player in the NHL. Hagg got preferential treatment over Sanheim, as did Provy, as did washed up AHL defensemen (forgetting the name of the player who got to play PP1 in the AHL ahead of Sanheim). In 19-20 Twarynski made the team out of camp instead of Frost. Mark Friedman (I think it was him -- could have been another defenseman) played right wing over David Kase. Frost is still not viewed as a quality piece. Brink is not getting opportunity to play... I could keep going.


My point is this, they always seem to have overrate these meat and potatoes type players and underrate the players who actually have a chance to play higher in the lineup. They give these guys every opportunity to develop, but do not do the same for others. This will continue until the entire front office is wiped out -- this is nothing about McDonald himself, it's about how the team has been operating for 10+ years.

Yeah that's fair. I think I hated the Chuck era so much - I started actually having most things the FO says go in one ear, out the other. Especially with prospects. After moving back from Italy, I work mostly remote and am always around the rink for my own games or coaching, so anything Danny or Flahr says - I try to make my own opinions lol, no Flyers propaganda. I'm not great pre-draft, because there's so many games/players to watch, but I like buying the CHL pass and watching our draft picks. This year should be fun again.

But yes you are 100% right - the home run hitting, high upside players have been pretty non-existent. Or the risk taking - creativity - trained out of them.

I just hope McDonald can be a 3rd pair guy. It's crazy how at times last year our 4th line and 3rd pair didn't have a draft pick on them. Absolutely embarrassing. The never ending cycle of overpaying for old guys who are only gonna get slower, taking up spots from players who maybe aren't as "defensively responsible" but have higher ceilings.

That's my biggest issue with Danny - this camp could have been really exciting with 3-4 roster spots up for grabs. Andrae, Samu, Ginning, Attard. Give McDonald an extended look! But instead - we know who is going to be on both teams.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Sometimes last year, Flahr/Briere et al, started pumping up Hunter McDonald as a prospect.

Fletcher, almost immediately after he got fired, was asked to spotlight one prospect, of anyone in the pool, and he started gushing about McDonald. Just utterly confusing.

We are talking about a guy that would have gone undrafted three times if the Flyers didn't pick him and has zero track record of point production - Essentially an Undrafted College Free Agent with a limited market. The percentage odds of that player making a positive impact in the NHL are less than 1% (no seriously go look at that pool of players).

Not only do the Flyers believe he has defied the odds, they believe this guy is on the fast track! They convinced him to leave school early and forfeit his last two years of eligibility. They gave him a big role on a "contending" AHL team. They played him in the playoffs (remember all of those guys from the mid-2010s they would not play down the AHL stretch?). Now he's possibly the first guy up on D for the NHL club.

For this guy to live up to the hype, he has to be one of the best defensive players in the entire league. Not only that, but projecting which prospects are actually good defensively is among the hardest things to do. Be excited for who you want to be excited for, but is it too much to ask your team to have a little self awareness? Especially with how the Hayden Hodgson experiment went up in flames?

As @VladDrag said, their decisions on who gets preferential treatment and who does not - there's no logic to it.

 

[usahockey22flyers]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1831856808056778972

Asking for an ounce of brutally honest self-evaluation. Would settle for a gram.

Yup I can promise you he's not in Voorhees right now.

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

I don't know if I've seen a team with management that has actively f***ed around and found out in the dumbest ways possible with their prospects.

The fact that we still use excuses from the GM about not having proper communication or a proper translator is some serious bullshit. That should be setting off all the alarm bells for overseas prospects and players. It feels very much like what it could be with Habs and their ownership forever. If you don't speak French, you won't get along with the ownership or management very well. Or even the media. It's stupid gatekeepy shit that scares people away and rightfully so.

 

[Beef Invictus]

He us under contract and the Flyers expect him to report. How are they in the wrong here?


Flyers are so bad at drafting and developing they have major issues even finding 3rd pair and 4th line guys.

Flyers will always overpay for vets sadly. Just look at the 4th line and how much cash they make.

They poisoned the well so severely that he'd rather not play, that's a pretty massive failure on the Flyers part.

Hopefully the fiction that there is no problem with their player development is dead now

 

[blackjackmulligan]

They poisoned the well so severely that he'd rather not play, that's a pretty massive failure on the Flyers part.

Hopefully the fiction that there is no problem with their player development is dead now

Do you have anything to show they poisoned the Kolosov well? What did they do exactly to make him not want to compete for a job?

Sees to me the player just doesn't want to compete or whatever other reason he may have. I myself do not buy the homesick angle, though it is possible. Unless there is new info not everything is the Flyers fault. He us under contract and should honor such contract.

Flyers paid him last season to play in Russia. They now want him in NA. Is that such an out of line request?

 

[deadhead]

Sure, and no problem.

Sometimes last year, Flahr/Briere et al, started pumping up Hunter McDonald as a prospect. And they did this unprompted, without any leading questions. It's clear that they think they have a player in McDonald -- and that's okay, in fact that's a good thing.

Based on his historical profile and comparison to others with that same type of profile, the likelihood of him becoming a 5/6 defenseman is so small -- it's like his 99th percentile outcome. This doesn't mean it won't happen, it only means he'll be one of the only players in the NHL who took that type of route to get there. He could be a diamond in the rough. Again that's good.

Based on historical evidence, this team will give him every opportunity to reach that 99th percentile outcome. They'll play him heavy minutes in the AHL, they'll promote him at the expense of others who may have a higher ceiling.

But, they don't do this with every prospect - they only seem to do it with defensive first, meat and potatoes type players. The examples go back to drafting of Couts. Couts had to go to FO to ask for an offensive role, despite scoring (basically) 100 points two consecutive years in the Q. They were content on keeping him as a defensive specialist. Laughton wasn't given PP time, and was viewed as a defensive specialist (ever single model shows that Laughton is a better offensive player than defensive player). NAK, despite leading the AHL in ES scoring was also not given PP time -- all because he was viewed as a bottom-6 player in the NHL. Hagg got preferential treatment over Sanheim, as did Provy, as did washed up AHL defensemen (forgetting the name of the player who got to play PP1 in the AHL ahead of Sanheim). In 19-20 Twarynski made the team out of camp instead of Frost. Mark Friedman (I think it was him -- could have been another defenseman) played right wing over David Kase. Frost is still not viewed as a quality piece. Brink is not getting opportunity to play... I could keep going.


My point is this, they always seem to have overrate these meat and potatoes type players and underrate the players who actually have a chance to play higher in the lineup. They give these guys every opportunity to develop, but do not do the same for others. This will continue until the entire front office is wiped out -- this is nothing about McDonald himself, it's about how the team has been operating for 10+ years.

The problem with that theory is these guys don't go elsewhere and shine, like say Verhaeghe who got jacked around by Toronto and TB.

Giroux was 1C, Couts and B Schenn were basically competing for 2C, Couts beat him out in 2015-16.
Couts took off when G was moved to LW and paired with him.

Laughton was sent to AHL b/c he couldn't play defense, came back improved but has always been an awkward fit at center, better LW but Flyers have had a hole at center for over a decade (moving G to LW improved 1st line but left a gap, and Patrick flaming out left a chasm).

NAK has always been a 4RW at every stop in his career.
Kase wasn't even a good AHL player. His 2nd AHL season 51g 7-12 19 at ES, and he couldn't stay healthy. Injuries also derailed Laczynski (top college scorer) and Allison.

Hagg should have been a top defensive defenseman, but seemed to lack the instincts, never was good offensively, even at the AHL level.

Sanheim didn't knock anyone's socks off offensively in his first AHL season, 76g 9-15 24 at ES. Next season, 2017-18, at 21, was too good for AHL but not ready for prime time. Hagg replaced him in the playoffs b/c of bad play. The following season became a fixture in the lineup.

Frost's first AHL season in 2019-20, 41g 11-8 19 at ES. Played 20 games in the NHL, 1-5 6 at ES. [Twarynski was a LW, he didn't keep Frost off the roster.] Missed a season. Next season much better at LHV, promoted to NHL, but 55g 4-10 14 at ES. After a good 2022-23, regressed a bit last year despite PT with TK, Tippett and Farabee. Frost's problem is Frost, hasn't learned to play up to his raw skill level.

Brink struggled at the NHL level last season, needs to get a little quicker, little stronger and adjust to smaller windows. Showed he was too good for AHL, but not quite NHL ready.
xGFrel -6.07, HDCFrel - 7.88. 1.59 pp/60.

Note that a lot of prospects needed a year or two to adjust to NHL play.
The progression tends to be go to the AHL, show you're too good for that league, get promoted, struggle as a rookie, step up your game your 2nd year in the league.

Players who are good defensively play earlier, not because of some prejudice, but b/c you can fit them in the bottom six and let them grow into bigger roles (Couts at 18). Cates, Foerster.

Offense first players who haven't mastered defensive fundamentals are bad fits in the bottom six and are rarely good enough offensively to make the top six as rookies, so they're more likely to be marinated. Frost, Brink.

This isn't a "Flyers thing," look around the league and you see the same pattern, especially teams that are good at developing prospects. Pens marinated prospects on a regular basis, which is why their AHL franchise is consistently competitive.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Ftr I believe the only defensemen to produce more than Sanheim his age in the AHL at ES were PK Subban and John Carlson…no sock knocking off. A season he started off on the third pair after a historic season in the WHL and scraps for special teams work. Naturally he “made” the NHL team the next year, played on the third pair, and got no special teams time and they wondered why he wasn’t producing. Meanwhile a guy he carried in the AHL was getting top 4 minutes and even top pair promotions with injuries. Came back the very next year to the same role until Hakstol got fired. Immediate breakout.

No other team in the league gives their first rounders that treatment when they checked every box prior to turning pro.

 

[GKJ]

There’s not really an advantage to having Kolosov go back on loan and have another year on his deal burn, but without a transfer deal they can still do it. And trying to be one of the Russian-friendly teams, is the juice worth the squeeze? What’s the breaking point?

 

[blackjackmulligan]

There’s not really an advantage to having Kolosov go back on loan and have another year on his deal burn, but without a transfer deal they can still do it. And trying to be one of the Russian-friendly teams, is the juice worth the squeeze? What’s the breaking point?

They didn't have any issues with Ivan or MM. They went the extra yard it seems. I know for many it is impossible to blame anyone else but the Flyers when things go sideways.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Do you have anything to show they poisoned the Kolosov well? What did they do exactly to make him not want to compete for a job?

Sees to me the player just doesn't want to compete or whatever other reason he may have. I myself do not buy the homesick angle, though it is possible. Unless there is new info not everything is the Flyers fault. He us under contract and should honor such contract.

Flyers paid him last season to play in Russia. They now want him in NA. Is that such an out of line request?

He made it clear the experience was so miserable and communication so lacking that he's not interested in a repeat experience.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

He made it clear the experience was so miserable and communication so lacking that he's not interested in a repeat experience.

There are reports out there the Flyers how the Flyers gave him what was needed. How Kolosov wanted to be alone and not stay with the team. Not everything is the Flyers fault.

Any links or articles where he talks about the lack of Commnication?

Find it hard to believe they got him to come over without a plan in place. He just said F it I will go. Then they abandoned him. Doesn't add up.

 

[deadhead]

Kolosov plays for Minsk. Wonder if he'd change his tune if he was traded to Sochi?

 

[Beef Invictus]

There are reports out there the Flyers how the Flyers gave him what was needed. How Kolosov wanted to be alone and not stay with the team. Not everything is the Flyers fault.

Any links or articles where he talks about the lack of Commnication?

Find it hard to believe they got him to come over without a plan in place. He just said F it I will go. Then they abandoned him. Doesn't add up.

Where are these reports from? The Flyers, by any chance?