2024-25 Roster…too soon?

[Giovi]

far be it from me to defend musto, but this is shifting the burden of proof. the facts at hand are that allan's possession numbers are bad (even relative to a very bad possession team), and that his deployment has been more sheltered than either of his most common partners, brodie and murphy. each of these players also have better possession numbers without allan than with him, despite starting in the defensive zone more often. the reverse is true for allan himself.

now, in the face of these objective statistical facts, the burden is on the eyetesters to demonstrate why the statistics are misleading. rather than doing this, it is almost always asserted that they are misleading with no video evidence, certainly no countervailing statistical evidence, not even anecdotal accounts of moments that would suggest a confounding variable. it's simply taken as gospel that if the numbers disagree with what the majority report that they "saw", then the numbers must be wrong.

Stats aren't facts in the hockey world, they don't tell the whole story.

The eye test is what I, many here, and all NHL GM's rely most on to tell them the whole story about a player. It's why all teams have scouts out there to tell them what they most need to know about a potential trade, signing or draft pick.

 

[MTU34]

far be it from me to defend musto, but this is shifting the burden of proof. the facts at hand are that allan's possession numbers are bad (even relative to a very bad possession team), and that his deployment has been more sheltered than either of his most common partners, brodie and murphy. each of these players also have better possession numbers without allan than with him, despite starting in the defensive zone more often. the reverse is true for allan himself.

now, in the face of these objective statistical facts, the burden is on the eyetesters to demonstrate why the statistics are misleading. rather than doing this, it is almost always asserted that they are misleading with no video evidence, certainly no countervailing statistical evidence, not even anecdotal accounts of moments that would suggest a confounding variable. it's simply taken as gospel that if the numbers disagree with what the majority report that they "saw", then the numbers must be wrong.

I’m not arguing that the statistics are misleading. I’m arguing that the way Musto is using them is shortsighted and just as biased as solely using the eye test.

As for Allan, it’s quite obvious that he’s getting caved in. That’s also the case for basically the entire roster. With him being a rookie, I don’t think it’s entirely fair to hold the fact that he plays easier minutes than established former top 4 defenders in Martinez and Brodie against him.

Musto is clamoring for Allan to be sent down and banished because he didn’t like the pick. His solution is to call up Del Mastro. I haven’t watched Rockford this year, but it sounds like Del Mastro has struggled a bit. He also lacks Allan’s mobility, which makes me hazard a guess that he’d be struggling at the nhl level more than Allan is currently.

This isn’t about providing an objective analysis on Musto’s part. Allan isn’t one of “his guys” so he wants to see him punished. He sees poor corsi numbers as an excuse to call for it

 

[statswatcher]

Stats aren't facts in the hockey world, they don't tell the whole story.

well i prefer to live in the real world, rather than the hockey world. in the real world people really watch these games, record events that really objectivley happened, and compile them into readable aggregates according to mathematical formulas anyone with the time and desire to can research to determine what they imply. these are real, actual facts. they may or may not tell the whole story, depending on what the story is. if the story is nolan allan has bad relative possession numbers and sheltered deployment, then they do in fact tell the whole story. if the story is nolan allan is struggling at the nhl level, then the numbers would seem to corroborate this, and further evidence and argument is necessary to show that the corroboration is spurious.

it's frankly embarrassing that people take "well that's not what i saw" as an excuse to not engage with statistical evidence. you could be the greatest hockey genius in the world with perfect omniscient knowledge of the precise reasons explaining any particular statistical result, but i would never know it if rather than giving me that explanation you just appeal to the eye test.

This isn’t about providing an objective analysis on Musto’s part. Allan isn’t one of “his guys” so he wants to see him punished. He sees poor corsi numbers as an excuse to call for it

this is true, and mostly why i avoided chiming in until this point. i still have massive disagreements with much of your rhetoric in that post, but i don't want anything i've wrote to be read as a full throated endorsement of what musto is saying.

 

[Larmer83]

Stats aren't facts in the hockey world, they don't tell the whole story.

The eye test is what I, many here, and all NHL GM's rely most on to tell them the whole story about a player. It's why all teams have scouts out there to tell them what they most need to know about a potential trade, signing or draft pick.

All teams have amateur scouting, pro scouting, and analytics departments.

Front Office | Chicago Blackhawks

The official National Hockey League website including news, rosters, stats, schedules, teams, and video.

www.nhl.com

Hawks breakdown by staff #s:
Analytics department- 12
Amateur scouting- 13
Pro scouting- 10

 

[Hawkaholic]

Maybe, Maybe not. Dickinsons our best center right now and he was an afterthought and cap dump 2 years ago. At least hes an actual center. Nobody thinks hes a 1C but someone will play center on the line Bedard plays on.

A C who can't play defense well, sounds like he'll be demoted to the 3rd or 4th line in no time with Luke. I mean I guess it's possible, just highly unlikely. Definitely not interested if it's anything more than a 3rd round pick or similar prospect/young player going the other way.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

well i prefer to live in the real world, rather than the hockey world. in the real world people really watch these games, record events that really objectivley happened, and compile them into readable aggregates according to mathematical formulas anyone with the time and desire to can research to determine what they imply. these are real, actual facts. they may or may not tell the whole story, depending on what the story is. if the story is nolan allan has bad relative possession numbers and sheltered deployment, then they do in fact tell the whole story. if the story is nolan allan is struggling at the nhl level, then the numbers would seem to corroborate this, and further evidence and argument is necessary to show that the corroboration is spurious.

it's frankly embarrassing that people take "well that's not what i saw" as an excuse to not engage with statistical evidence. you could be the greatest hockey genius in the world with perfect omniscient knowledge of the precise reasons explaining any particular statistical result, but i would never know it if rather than giving me that explanation you just appeal to the eye test.


this is true, and mostly why i avoided chiming in until this point. i still have massive disagreements with much of your rhetoric in that post, but i don't want anything i've wrote to be read as a full throated endorsement of what musto is saying.

With the utmost respect if I have to explain what a snapshot is to you your eye test is meaningless. I like Kaiser and I like Allan. They've both been better than their numbers suggest.

 

[TLEH]

I mean.. it is good context to say that Allan has played easy competition. I would say the eye test is that he doesn't make big mistakes and is steady, the fact he's doing that with easy deployment isn't a negative.

 

[Hawkaholic]

far be it from me to defend musto, but this is shifting the burden of proof. the facts at hand are that allan's possession numbers are bad (even relative to a very bad possession team), and that his deployment has been more sheltered than either of his most common partners, brodie and murphy. each of these players also have better possession numbers without allan than with him, despite starting in the defensive zone more often. the reverse is true for allan himself.

now, in the face of these objective statistical facts, the burden is on the eyetesters to demonstrate why the statistics are misleading. rather than doing this, it is almost always asserted that they are misleading with no video evidence, certainly no countervailing statistical evidence, not even anecdotal accounts of moments that would suggest a confounding variable. it's simply taken as gospel that if the numbers disagree with what the majority report that they "saw", then the numbers must be wrong.

When he is with Brodie, he has
37% CF%
32%xGF%

But, when he plays with Murphy he has
47% CF%
48% xGF%

They just don't work together, so I think the advanced stats are fairly meaningless in this case. Our coach should maybe not play them together, since they are better Dmen when not with each other.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

I also said before the season started we are very thin at center. We have a single 3C. Everywhere else we're plugging wingers in. That's a brutal way to run a team.

 

[BHawk21]

A C who can't play defense well, sounds like he'll be demoted to the 3rd or 4th line in no time with Luke. I mean I guess it's possible, just highly unlikely. Definitely not interested if it's anything more than a 3rd round pick or similar prospect/young player going the other way.

Sounds like the Necas discussion all over again but on a smaller scale.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

I mean.. it is good context to say that Allan has played easy competition. I would say the eye test is that he doesn't make big mistakes and is steady, the fact he's doing that with easy deployment isn't a negative.

I've always maintained a rookie defenseman being largely invisible isn't a bad thing. Especially if they're just eating minutes.

 

[statswatcher]

With the utmost respect if I have to explain what a snapshot is to you your eye test is meaningless. I like Kaiser and I like Allan. They've both been better than their numbers suggest.

with the utmost respect, if you think i am arguing from my eye test then you either don't know how to read or you are willfully misreading what i am saying.

whether or not you know what a snapshot is better than me has nothing to do with the basic heart of the matter which is that simply asserting that the numbers are wrong doesn't actually demonstrate that they are wrong. you are continuing the trend by not actually substantiating your opinion, but simply stating it. if your intention is simply to state your opinion then fine, but that gives you no rational ground to condescend to someone who has actually gone to the effort of presenting actual evidence in support of their opinion where you have provided none.

 

[Hattrick Kane]

Brodie tanks anybody he plays with. I can’t believe people can’t figure that out. Hard to swim with an anchor attached to you.

 

[statswatcher]

When he is with Brodie, he has
37% CF%
32%xGF%

But, when he plays with Murphy he has
47% CF%
48% xGF%

They just don't work together, so I think the advanced stats are fairly meaningless in this case. Our coach should maybe not play them together, since they are better Dmen when not with each other.

drawing meaning from statistics in order to argue that the statistics are "meaningless" is an interesting approach. for the record i agree with you here, and this is exactly the kind of thing i'm asking for when i say people need to engage with the arguments at hand rather than simply dismissing them because they don't immediately confirm one's preconcieved notions.

 

[Kevin Musto]

I also said before the season started we are very thin at center. We have a single 3C. Everywhere else we're plugging wingers in. That's a brutal way to run a team.

It's a weird decision to intentionally leave a vacancy for Frank Nazar, and then just not put him there

 

[Mrfenn92]

Mrazek back
Commesso down

 

[RememberTheRoar]

It's a weird decision to intentionally leave a vacancy for Frank Nazar, and then just not put him there

He didn’t win it in camp. I have no problem sending a message to him that shit won’t just be gifted to him. But that said, I think he went to Rockford and showed he’s willing to work his ass off.

I think it’s time to give him that 2C spot and I’ll assume he’s not going to give it up once he gets it.