2024-25 Roster…too soon?

[GIADF]

Brodie and Martinez are driving the exact same results as Allan.

The difference being, they're not as sheltered as he is.

I know it probably looks like they're close, but Allan is only getting matched up against scrubs so he's not actually outplaying Brodie and Martinez.

You guys are looking at things at surface level. It's the same reason you all think Reichel is having a great season.

It feels like Allan has played half his time with Brodie, if not more.

Anyone have the actual breakdown with his partners?

 

[TheFridge]

It feels like Allan has played half his time with Brodie, if not more.

Anyone have the actual breakdown with his partners?

His most frequent partner has been Brodie, at 69 minutes. Murphy is next at 62 minutes. He's played 32 minutes with Jones and 15 minutes with Martinez. All other partners have been <5 minutes.

 

[Kevin Musto]

It feels like Allan has played half his time with Brodie, if not more.

Anyone have the actual breakdown with his partners?

 

[ChiHawks10]

In terms of CF%, Kaiser and Jones are driving the best results on the roster at even strength. Then everyone else is about the same.

But look at the deployment.

Take Vlasic for example. His CF% is about the same as Allan, but he's getting the toughest matchups out of everyone and logging heavy minutes. So naturally it's much harder to thrive in that role. All things considered, Vlasic is doing quite well because he's being asked to do the most.

On the flip side, Allan is asked to do WAY LESS than everyone else and he's struggling. He needs more time in Rockford, plain and simple. That's not a bad thing. I don't know why some of you are upset about the truth.

I'm not upset about it. Just pointing out that anyone with eyes can see Brodie and Martinez have been worse, at least most nights. And I'm not even opposed to Allan being in Rockford, either. Keep him away from these trash vets on the blueline who are going to just give him bad habits, and put excess pressure on him by forcing him to carry the pairing.

 

[Kevin Musto]

I'm not upset about it. Just pointing out that anyone with eyes can see Brodie and Martinez have been worse, at least most nights.

The thing is, they're not actually worse. It's there in the data.

They might look worse because they're out on the ice for more minutes than Allan, and because they're being burned by higher skilled players that Allan never even gets matched against.

But the data they're driving isn't actually worse than Allan. In fact, it looks a bit better when contextualizing situations.

And I'm not even opposed to Allan being in Rockford, either.

Nobody should be. Having him play top line minutes with Lev is not a bad thing. He's 21 and has only played 60 career AHL games. There's no rush for him to graduate prospect status this year.

 

[ChiHawks10]

The thing is, they're not actually worse. It's there in the data.

They might look worse because they're out on the ice for more minutes than Allan, and because they're being burned by higher skilled players that Allan never even gets matched against.

But the data they're driving isn't actually worse than Allan. In fact, it looks a bit better when contextualizing situations.

Nobody should be. Having him play top line minutes with Lev is not a bad thing. He's 21 and has only played 60 career AHL games. There's no rush for him to graduate prospect status this year.

Fancy stats don't ever tell the whole story, and won't ever tell the whole story in hockey. Trying to rely solely on that data to formulate an opinion is bordering on braindead. Especially on a team this bad.

 

[Kevin Musto]

Fancy stats don't ever tell the whole story, and won't ever tell the whole story in hockey. Trying to rely solely on that data to formulate an opinion is bordering on braindead. Especially on a team this bad.

I'm literally giving you the context.

This isn't Bader nonsense. There's a big difference.

Read and interpret it for yourself. If you can't understand, it's you that is braindead.

 

[dj Mahoney]

The Lower Tiered Teams from last season improved quite a bit . No points are coming easy but it seems many of the vet's on the Blackhawk's are half arsing it .

 

[WarriorofTime]

Allan is also the 12th youngest defenseman to play in the League thus far.

 

[Darkstar]

Let me get this straight, we're going to judge players strictly on analytics now instead of actually watching them play? Lulz.

 

[Wally1112pac]

Let me get this straight, we're going to judge players strictly on analytics now instead of actually watching them play? Lulz.

Like this guy.

How did it work out for him?

 

[Kevin Musto]

Let me get this straight, we're going to judge players strictly on analytics now instead of actually watching them play? Lulz.

There's nothing I've shown that can be disputed lol.

These are all hard facts.

I'm showing you guys that 1+1=2 and you're responding with "Nuh uh, my eyes say it equals 3."

View attachment 933384

Like this guy.

How did it work out for him?

I don't know what "stats" this bum looked at. Probably Bader level shit that led him to proclaim Victor Soderstrom was a top 3 player in the 2019 draft.

It's like that Will Scouch guy. He shows you all of his data, all of the work he's done, but then he draws all of the wrong conclusions from it.

Perplexing stuff.

 

[ChiHawks10]

There's nothing I've shown that can be disputed lol.

These are all hard facts.

I'm showing you guys that 1+1=2 and you're responding with "Nuh uh, my eyes say it equals 3."

I don't know what "stats" this bum looked at. Probably Bader level shit that led him to proclaim Victor Soderstrom was a top 3 player in the 2019 draft.

It's like that Will Scouch guy. He shows you all of his data, all of the work he's done, but then he draws all of the wrong conclusions from it.

Perplexing stuff.

No, what is perplexing is that you think that, in a sport like hockey, fancy stats can actually provide a quality picture on their own. This isn't baseball. Fancy stats can't be used in hockey like they are in baseball or other sports where things are far more linear. It's just not possible. Too much randomness and chance. They can be used to provide a decent baseline, but then the eye test also has to be applied. You just saying "These are all hard facts." is nonsense because the numbers don't always tell the whole story in a sport like hockey.

One need only look at the graphs after games. How many times has one of those graphs said a player had a great game, and every single person's eye test watching that game agrees he was awful? Or vice-versa?

 

[Kevin Musto]

No, what is perplexing is that you think that, in a sport like hockey, fancy stats can actually provide a quality picture on their own. This isn't baseball. Fancy stats can't be used in hockey like they are in baseball or other sports where things are far more linear. It's just not possible. Too much randomness and chance. They can be used to provide a decent baseline, but then the eye test also has to be applied. You just saying "These are all hard facts." is nonsense because the numbers don't always tell the whole story in a sport like hockey.

But you're failing to understand that I'm not using subjective data.

None of this is skewed by the randomness of the sport. This isn't +/-

I think you guys just aren't understanding what I'm showing you.

 

[ChiHawks10]

But you're failing to understand that I'm not using subjective data.

None of this is skewed by the randomness of the sport. This isn't +/-

I think you guys just aren't understanding what I'm showing you.

Tell me what data or fancy stats in hockey aren't skewed by the randomness of the sport? Please. I'd love to know something that is truly a 100% accurate depiction, eye test be damned.

EVERY stat in hockey is skewed by the randomness of the sport. That's why they'll NEVER be able to be utilized in hockey like they are in some other sports. The sooner you realize that, the sooner you'll stop having gigantic swings and misses on guys like you did with Vlasic.

 

[Kevin Musto]

It's not worth it.

1+1 will always be 3 to you guys.

 

[ChiHawks10]

It's not worth it.

1+1 will always be 3 to you guys.

 

[MTU34]

It's not worth it.

1+1 will always be 3 to you guys.

The point isn’t that 1+1 =/= 2, it’s that you have to try to understand WHY 1+1 equals 2.

Im a big analytics guy. Firmly of the belief that teams need to have strong analytics departments if they want any chance at competing. That being said, they’re not a sliver bullet. You need the context of both the data and actually watching the game to truly have an understanding of what’s going on.

Blindly using stats like corsi (which doesn’t account for qualify of shot attempts) won’t get you anywhere. Even the public models that account for quantity and quality of chances aren’t perfect. A lot of those guys (Jfresh, etc) have admitted that a guy like Patrick Kane is a model breaker because they haven’t found a way to quantify the fact he creates/created a ton of high danger chances through seam passes

 

[Kevin Musto]

The point isn’t that 1+1 =/= 2, it’s that you have to try to understand WHY 1+1 equals 2.

Im a big analytics guy. Firmly of the belief that teams need to have strong analytics departments if they want any chance at competing. That being said, they’re not a sliver bullet. You need the context of both the data and actually watching the game to truly have an understanding of what’s going on.

Blindly using stats like corsi (which doesn’t account for qualify of shot attempts) won’t get you anywhere. Even the public models that account for quantity and quality of chances aren’t perfect. A lot of those guys (Jfresh, etc) have admitted that a guy like Patrick Kane is a model breaker because they haven’t found a way to quantify the fact he creates/created a ton of high danger chances through seam passes

Except I'm not blindly using corsi.

I'm using it in conjunction with deployment and strength of competition (at even strength). The context is right there staring you in the face.

 

[ClydeLee]

Anywhooo, I see Frost has been scratched 3 times in a row now.

Blackhawks really need to take a shot and get Philly to send him over. Idk what his advanced stats say now, but he's at least in the 50% FO range which is also a boost if he comes to Chicago

 

[RememberTheRoar]

Anywhooo, I see Frost has been scratched 3 times in a row now.

Blackhawks really need to take a shot and get Philly to send him over. Idk what his advanced stats say now, but he's at least in the 50% FO range which is also a boost if he comes to Chicago

He can be 1C, call up Nazar to be 2C, move Dickinson back to 3C

 

[Kevin Musto]

Anywhooo, I see Frost has been scratched 3 times in a row now.

Blackhawks really need to take a shot and get Philly to send him over. Idk what his advanced stats say now, but he's at least in the 50% FO range which is also a boost if he comes to Chicago

Frost has been struggling

Scratches have been warranted

If Chicago acquired him, his impact would be about a little worse than Kurashev right now

So not really worth going after imo

 

[MTU34]

Except I'm not blindly using corsi.

I'm using it in conjunction with deployment and strength of competition (at even strength). The context is right there staring you in the face.

Actually, there still isn’t any context. You’re claiming Allan has bad results with sheltered deployment against relatively poor competition. That tells you what’s happening on the ice (theoretically at least. I don’t love corsi). It still doesn’t tell you how or why it’s happening

 

[clydesdale line]

Frost has been struggling

Scratches have been warranted

Haven't kept up with Philly too much but Torts has also scratched Michkov more than a game. Is that warranted too? I can't go by that with Torts as the head coach.

 

[Hattrick Kane]

Reading the Ottawa boards, they seem pretty convinced Tkachuk is going to want out if they miss the playoffs. Rumors around town let’s call it.

If that’s the case, that’s the target. You do whatever it takes to get him here.