Prospect Info: 2024-25 Prospect Info (CHL, NCAA, Europe)
- Thread starter McMetal
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SoundwaveIsCharisma
Moderator
I do wonder if Jost would've turned out different with one more season at NoDak
henchman21
Mr. Meeseeks
- Feb 24, 2012
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Doubtful, but certainly way too early to say this.
I really don’t think so. Jost’s issue was athletically and that wasn’t going to be helped by another year in college.
Dumber?
Anyway, I think going to the Goofs nor leaving when he did hampered Mittelstadt's development.
UnkleKraker
Registered User
So, 2 years in the CHL for top tier prospects then NCAA? Or is this really a nothing burger with only a few players taking that path. Will be fascinating to watch but gotta confess any negative CHL impact will be sad for me. Long time WHL fan and that product was so fun in its prime.
henchman21
Mr. Meeseeks
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It is TBD. The CHL contracts are typically for 4 years (there are variances, but standard), meaning those players are typically not eligible to play elsewhere except when a transfer agreement is in place (which is why they can do the NHL, but not AHL). Now the next step in this will be the fight on those contracts. There are already agencies lining up ready to fight the CHL contract and basically state players can leave whenever they want to play in a different league (Bartlett namely). Thusfar, any fights on that contract have been unsuccessful... that doesn't mean it will stay that way forever though. Also of note here, any player that signs an ELC will be ineligible for the NCAA. Obvious, but that'll stop some top prospects from the CHL in moving over.
So what does this mean today? If a player wants to play college at 18/19, they will probably still choose the Junior A/USHL route for now. If we get the point where 18/19 year olds can leave the CHL. The BCHL/AJHL are going to take a massive hit. Those players have little incentive to not move to the CHL if they have a good opportunity. The USHL will have a decrease in their Canadians coming down and playing. The Celebrini/Power types still have incentive withe the 18/19 year old NCAA possibility. But the guys who would go to the NCAA at 20 anyway... those guys will stop coming down. Like Martino and Crandell in the USHL today, they will stay in the CHL then move over. That's where the meat of this will hurt the USHL, at least until there is clarity on the CHL contracts.
Now for the NCAA, the quality for the lower end teams is about to improve tremendously. BU, BC, DU, Michigan, etc they are going to get the top kids regardless. But Omaha, Lindenwood, Maine, Union, etc... they are about to get A LOT better. They will scour the top overagers and find the best ones. They won't be as skilled, but they will be much deeper teams.
On the NHL/AHL... the undrafted ELCs are going to get a lot tougher and very rare unless they promise NHL games. The 3rd-7th round picks are also going to naturally get tougher to sign. They can wait out, go to college, play for another year, and have their pick of where to play. With the NHL CBA, the rules as they are today, the rights will still expire after 2 years for CHL kids... so there is a path to ~3 years (really 2.75) and UFA now.
As an extreme example... take Ritchie. Say he didn't sign his ELC and just went back to the OHL for his final season. At the end of this season, he could sign with Michigan for 200k for 25-26 and make his intentions clear he won't sign with any NHL team. He goes undrafted as a re-entry (unlikely but possible if communicated in that manner). Plays 25-26 for Michigan, then signs in the spring as a UFA to where ever he wants and finishes the season/playoffs burning a year off his ELC... he gets paid and gets his choice of location and path.
BobRossColton
Registered User
No, he wouldn't have. Another year in college would not have fixed his skating issues, which were 99.9999999% of why he didn't make it in the NHL.
He was just a bad pick, that's all.
henchman21
Mr. Meeseeks
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Yup... people greatly underestimate how good skating is across the NHL and how bad it is at lower levels. With smaller guys (<6'), they have to be great skaters to make it in general... but at center they have to be damn near elite. The one way out of that is IQ, and it has to be at such an absurdly good level there that it is blatantly obvious (Suzuki is that sort of guy). Jost never had close to that level of IQ and while he was a great skater at lower level, when the margin shrank to zero, he just had no counter.
GirardSpinorama
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Size, skating, hockey IQ. If you dont have 2/3 at an NHL level, its hard to be an NHLer.
SoundwaveIsCharisma
Moderator
I think part of that is also that he just never adapted. He kept trying to play this fast game where he could outskate and outmaneuver people, which as you mentioned he couldn't do when the skill/ability margin closed once he hit the NHL. I remember so many times where he'd try to fly past someone just for them to close him out completely, or where he'd try a reverse hit just to get bowled over. I always thought that if he were to be successful he'd have to be like Pavelski, just incredibly smart in his positioning - this was one of the things that he was praised for during his draft year, his high anticipation.
It really sucks he didn't turn out, when we drafted him he was so well thought of and I had hopes that he'd be a bit of a Pavelski/Toews hybrid (not necessarily at their peak, but a two-way C that was very smart and efficient).
Toothless Legend
Registered User
Yeah but how adorable was it to see his grandfather crying after the Avs made the pick?
GirardSpinorama
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Almost 500 NHL games is still pretty good. Im still gonna cheer for the guy to figure it out.
henchman21
Mr. Meeseeks
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I'd argue he simply couldn't adapt. Never had the size to play the slower game, never had the skating to play the faster game, never had the IQ to find the middle. He just wasn't gifted with the right traits to cut it in a higher role.
Jost is certainly a bust compared to where he was drafted, but he still had a NHL career and that is better that the vast majority of us. He made plenty, played a lot of games, has a pension, and will probably have a nice European vacation for 4-5 years here soon.
I dunno, I think he tried, the Avs literally put him in every role and position imaginable, he just couldn't find a spot where he was comfortable. In the end it came down to the fact that he couldn't win puck battles, that's just not gonna cut it for a guy whose bread and butter in the NHL was defense. And no amount of adjustment in his game was gonna fix that.
One thing I think he should've done is borrowed his buddy Sammy G's stick. He used that goddamn tree branch that worked well when he was in open ice and created the odd turnover here and there, but in the corners when he was trying to fight for pucks he looked like he was trying to rake leaves. For a little guy it really hampered his ability to maneuver in tight spaces. Obviously it wouldn't have fixed things but it might have made things a little easier for him.
Sadly, he won't. It just isn't in the cards. He just needs to go somewhere where the game just isn't as fast, and he'll be much more successful.
Yep. Great story, great guy, bad pick. Too bad too...dude put in the work and near as I can tell never complained, it just didn't work out.
This one's over a year old and I'd say there are already players in this redraft taken lower who have surpassed him (Kunin, Mahura, Bastian, Eyssimont, and so on), so I don't think he'd be a 1st rounder if they held it today. 2nd rounder, sure, but not in the top 30 or so. But no, it wasn't a good draft.
IMO he was a bust, but still managed a lot of NHL games.
