The gambit largely drew criticism from rival executives after it backfired, as the Blue Jays not only didn’t get Sasaki but also ended up with a defence-only outfielder they don’t necessarily need, plus international bonus space without an immediate target. It’s a brilliant trade for the Guardians, who shed all but $3.75 million of a contract that went sour for them, and a bad look for the Blue Jays, especially since the Dodgers completed deals for extra international spending room only after Sasaki announced his decision.
Meanwhile the San Diego Padres, the other finalist, also had deals contingent on acquiring the electric 23-year-old right-hander, prompting some officials to wonder why the Blue Jays didn’t tie their deal with Cleveland to Sasaki’s fate, as well.
If you’re inclined to leave it there, fair enough — the discussion around this team can certainly feel exhausting. But while conversations with multiple industry sources largely excoriated the controversial trade, with one person seeing it as an act of desperation, some also viewed it as a calculated risk, one taken as a final push in pursuit of a talented and uniquely affordable player.
Regardless, such a move is unusual for this measured Blue Jays front office, which is why how it went down remained a compelling talking point more than 24 hours later.
The driving force behind it all was the competitive courtship of Sasaki, which led all three finalists to survey the market for additional international cap space this week. By and large, teams willing to trade their spending room wanted prospects, but the Blue Jays didn’t want to deplete their thin farm system.
The Guardians, however, already shed payroll once this off-season — in December the Blue Jays took the $97.5 million still owed to Andres Gimenez off their hands — and renewed discussions between the clubs led to an alternative — take most of Straw’s money for $2 million in cap space.
Outrighted off the Cleveland roster last March, Straw is guaranteed $14.75 million through 2026 and the Blue Jays would have to take $11 million (not $11.8 million as previously reported) of that sum. While they had other options for trades involving prospects that could have been contingent on a Sasaki yes, they believed that if they didn’t take the Guardians option, another team would, presumably the Dodgers or Padres.
Unwilling to potentially lose Sasaki over not pushing their bonus pool forward to make the best financial deal possible, the Blue Jays decided to lock in the cost of Straw as opposed to waiting and potentially losing prospects if they landed Sasaki. They hadn’t received any promises from Joel Wolfe, Sasaki’s agent, but they believed the extra bonus space raised their odds a little.
Whether it did is unclear, although rival executives pointed out that since Sasaki forfeited the chance at a nine-figure contract by posting before he turned 25, he was unlikely to be swayed by an extra million or two. In the end, the Dodgers gave him a $6.5 million signing bonus, while the Blue Jays could have offered him up to $8,261,600.
Now, the Blue Jays will reallocate the extra bonus pool they acquired, but sources familiar with the international market say the best talent is already signed, making it difficult to find promising players. The Blue Jays, however, have had some success in identifying talent that’s slipped through the cracks, with prospects Kendry Rojas, Sem Robberse and Yosver Zulueta among those they’ve signed under similar circumstances.
More potentially damaging is the possibility that the hits of $5 million this year and $6 million next year for Straw impact their ability to sign players. Sources familiar with the Blue Jays’ thinking say they don’t foresee that as an issue and still expect them to add meaningfully to the roster.
On the hitting side, the Blue Jays have been engaged with Anthony Santander and Pete Alonso, and they’re talking with some high-end pitchers, too. Of course, nothing’s done until it’s done, but the Blue Jays were described as active in free-agent talks on Friday night and Saturday.
How much more they can spend is dependent on the calibre of player they can add.
With Straw, the Blue Jays now have a projected payroll of $245 million, according to FanGraphs’ Roster Resource, pushing them over the first Competitive Balance Tax threshold of $241 million and within striking distance of the second, at $261 million. The belief is that they won’t necessarily have to trade away current players to add free agents and given the tier of free agents they’re pursuing, it’s clear they can exceed the second CBT threshold this year for the right players.
None of that changes the fact that the Blue Jays are worse off now than they were before they acquired Straw and lost out on Sasaki. And none of that will be enough to calm the frustration fans rightfully feel. But, for whatever it’s worth, there’s internal belief that the Blue Jays can recover from this setback by spending internationally and domestically.
