Blue Jays Discussion: 2024-25 Off-season: The free agent watch begins (and sometimes old baseball radio broadcasts)

[Discoverer]

Gimenez is a nice piece to have in your depth but he can't be part of the middle of the bat order. Bo and Vlad wont be enough. It has been not enough for two years now. Springer can't be that 3rd guy anymore he is a depth player now.

Yeah, as of now they would have four guys in the regular lineup (Kirk, Varsho, Gimenez, Clement) who I think you can reasonably expect to put up something like a 90-100 wRC+ (I would say Kirk and Gimenez have more upside than that considering they both just turned 26, but I think it's fair to expect them both to be a little below average).

Considering they all provide elite defense, there's really nothing wrong with that - a lot of good teams have worse hitters than that who don't provide that defense.

The real problems right now are Springer, LF, and DH. If you're not getting strong offensive performances out of those spots, you can't hide the elite defenders at the bottom of the lineup. Even if they add a Santander/Teo, they still need another above average bat, and I'm not confident we're going to get one.

Edit: Really, it feels like Springer is the biggest issue. If he's here, he's going to play. If he's not, you can give his playing time to some combination of Lukes/Clase/Barger/Loperfido/Roden and a cheap lefty-masher to platoon with them.

 

[shaner8989]

lol 500k after getting 765 mill... Thats like one of us chasing a quarter through a tornando. He doesnt give a shit about an mvp for an extra 500k

 

[LaP]

Yeah, as of now they would have four guys in the regular lineup (Kirk, Varsho, Gimenez, Clement) who I think you can reasonably expect to put up something like a 90-100 wRC+ (I would say Kirk and Gimenez have more upside than that considering they both just turned 26, but I think it's fair to expect them both to be a little below average).

Considering they all provide elite defense, there's really nothing wrong with that - a lot of good teams have worse hitters than that who don't provide that defense.

The real problems right now are Springer, LF, and DH. If you're not getting strong offensive performances out of those spots, you can't hide the elite defenders at the bottom of the lineup. Even if they add a Santander/Teo, they still need another above average bat, and I'm not confident we're going to get one.

The problem is not the players themselves. They are all good defensive specialists with average bat who could help many teams. If the Jays can add a 3rd dominant bat behind Bo and Vlad it's going to be fine imo but they absolutely 100% must find that 3rd bat and ideally not an over the hill plan C like the last two seasons.

 

[aingefan]

lol 500k after getting 765 mill... Thats like one of us chasing a quarter through a tornando. He doesnt give a shit about an mvp for an extra 500k

Right?
As of that contract needs incentives anyway.
Gotta like his betting on himself tho….increases to a mil for each MVP *after* that lol

 

[Eyedea]

lol 500k after getting 765 mill... Thats like one of us chasing a quarter through a tornando. He doesnt give a shit about an mvp for an extra 500k

Reg season runs for around 187 days so that’s a nice little 1.83 extra days of pay for him.

 

[Eyedea]

The contract is likely going to be steep, but he’s a legit ace and some of our pitchers are aging. If we’re serious about contending this year, particularly with how the AL East has loaded up, we need significant additions to the pitching staff and lineup.

To be fair everyone is aging, including Burnes lol.

But honestly, a high velo cutter as your main weapon is probably pretty alarming for these orgs re: the high potential risk of an arm injury. Add in the fact that it wasn’t as dominating of a pitch as previous seasons and you wonder what he’ll look like moving forward.

 

[phillipmike]

Regarding the Gimenez deal someone asked a great question:

If Gimenez was a free agent today, would you be happy if your team signed him to a 5 year deal worth $100M?​

The answer is an emphatic "no" which is telling because it doesnt even include the asset you gave up in Horwitz.

That said, i wonder if the answer eventually becomes an emphatic "yes", because a 29 year old Willy Adames got $182M over 7 years for $26M AAV.

Many forget Gimenez has been in the league for 5 years and is only 25 years old. When his deal is over he will be 30 and if he comes off a strong season, he may be in line for deal similar to Adames.

Comparing their first 5 seasons:

Adames is the better hitter. But Gimenez is overall a better player at this point in their careers. Elite defender, lefty bat and a much better base runner. the only substantive difference is Adames has more power.

Many will say that the difference is Adames is SS and Gimenez is 2B which is why Adames is worth more. However, i would argue that 2B isnt weighted as valuable to a SS which means it show just how valuable Gimenez is if almost doubles Adames WAR playing 2B to his SS.

Also, although it isnt being discussed, i think the Jays have a plan B if Bo walks or maybe it is their plan A to have Gimenez play SS and move Bo now - which makes a lot of sense. Dont forget, Gimenez is an elite 2B, and he was an elite fielding SS in the minors;

Gimenez was MLB.com's 59th best prospect in 2019;

Scouting grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 35 | Run: 55 | Arm: 60 | Field: 60 | Overall: 55

The Mets have never shied away from pushing young infielders up the organizational ladder if they felt they could handle the challenge, with players like Amed Rosario and Wilmer Flores making their big league debuts at age 21 in recent years. Gimenez, who signed in July 2015 for $1.2 million and made it to Double-A in 2018 before he turned 20, appears to be on a similar path.

Gimenez might be among the most unassuming-looking top prospects in the game given his small frame, but he has tools on both sides of the ball. He can flat-out play shortstop, and should be able to play there long-term thanks to his strong arm, excellent hands, range and plus instincts for the position. While he's not a burner, he has above-average speed, and he maximizes it both defensively and as a hitter, leading the organization in stolen bases in 2018. He has a very good approach at the plate that leads to consistent contact, and he's shown he's not afraid to draw a walk. He may never win a home run derby, but the 2018 Futures Gamer showed more extra-base thump in '18, with a bit more to come.

In another system, Gimenez would be the heir apparent at shortstop. With Rosario there in the big leagues, Gimenez got a lot of time at second base in the Arizona Fall League last fall, perhaps a sign of things to come.

He is a very good SS playing 2B where he is elite. Yesterday Tim Kurkjian said Gimenez is the best defensive player in baseball, not at 2B, in baseball. The fact that he can play SS makes things a lot more interesting in my opinion when monitoring Bo's situation and looking at his value in comparison to what Adames got.

I am still not enamored with this deal but it does have a lot of intrigue if he maintains his value, perhaps hits better later in his career like Adames did or becomes SS for the Jays. He just recently turned 26, just a few months older than Vlad. Not to mention he was the centerpiece in the Lindor trade.

 

[Dr.Funk]

Regarding the Gimenez deal someone asked a great question:

If Gimenez was a free agent today, would you be happy if your team signed him to a 5 year deal worth $100M?​

The answer is an emphatic "no" which is telling because it doesnt even include the asset you gave up in Horwitz.

That said, i wonder if the answer eventually becomes an emphatic "yes", because a 29 year old Willy Adames got $182M over 7 years for $26M AAV.

Many forget Gimenez has been in the league for 5 years and is only 25 years old. When his deal is over he will be 30 and if he comes off a strong season, he may be in line for deal similar to Adames.

Comparing their first 5 seasons:

View attachment 944100

Adames is the better hitter. But Gimenez is overall a better player at this point in their careers. Elite defender, lefty bat and a much better base runner. the only substantive difference is Adames has more power.

Many will say that the difference is Adames is SS and Gimenez is 2B which is why Adames is worth more. However, i would argue that 2B isnt weighted as valuable to a SS which means it show just how valuable Gimenez is if almost doubles Adames WAR playing 2B to his SS.

Also, although it isnt being discussed, i think the Jays have a plan B if Bo walks or maybe it is their plan A to have Gimenez play SS and move Bo now - which makes a lot of sense. Dont forget, Gimenez is an elite 2B, and he was an elite fielding SS in the minors;

Gimenez was MLB.com's 59th best prospect in 2019;



He is a very good SS playing 2B where he is elite. Yesterday Tim Kurkjian said Gimenez is the best defensive player in baseball, not at 2B, in baseball. The fact that he can play SS makes things a lot more interesting in my opinion when monitoring Bo's situation and looking at his value in comparison to what Adames got.

I am still not enamored with this deal but it does have a lot of intrigue if he maintains his value, perhaps hits better later in his career like Adames did or becomes SS for the Jays. He just recently turned 26, just a few months older than Vlad. Not to mention he was the centerpiece in the Lindor trade.

I'd love talk to Houston about a deal with Tucker and Bo as the centerpieces