Blue Jays Discussion: 2024-25 Off-season: The free agent watch begins (and sometimes old baseball radio broadcasts)
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You know what they say when you assume things!
I’ve had it at the absolute most 25% he signs here, it’s not going to get me upset. But keep on carrying on, boss!
Yeah, does anyone here actually think the Jays are going to sign him? The most optimistic takes have been along the lines of "They're a longshot at best and probably won't get him, but maybe?"
Yeah, the only thing I've noticed is the difference in reporting compared to Ohtani and this, but things do change in a year.
The only thing that kinda frustrates me is we have been willing to spend 600-800m the last two years on one player. If we spent that on a couple, it probably would do the same since we should be a really good team.
Canada4Gold
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- Dec 22, 2010
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Even if we assume the same money is available for other players if not Soto(which it's not) it's not really about the total, it's about the AAV. You give Soto 630 million at a AAV of 45 you can't instead give Fried 200 million, Bregman 175 million, Santander 100 million and 155 million to pen arms and say it's the same total. The latter will be spent over 3 to 7 years. What are we doing for the other 7 to 11 years? Taking 45 million off the payroll for those years to make up for it? Those 3 and the pen would take up like 100+ million in payroll this year v 45 for Soto. Since payroll is a yearly thing you look at how much each options cost per year. You could spend 25 million on a starter and 20 million on an outfielder using Soto's money if it was still available. Then when those contract expire you get that 45 million back to spend again, etc, etc until 14 years is up. That doesn't really get you much the way the market is shaping up sadly. Like a Kikuchi/Severino level arm and Santander/Teo bat might be close to 45 million. I'm taking Soto over that combination of players if I had the choice. The better question is the end of Soto's contract it's likely you prefer the 45 million in 2038 FA players to 39 year old Soto. Is the front end worth the sacrifice on the back end
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That's fair and understandable!
I guess the way I look at it is if Soto does come here. He's not coming here being the only FA signing. He'd obviously expect more signings, so let's say we give him 45m AAV, and spend another 25m. Soto is a gigantic player, don't get me wrong. I could be wrong, but I don't think he'd bring in as much marketing as Ohtani would've. So I feel like spending the combined money and making a really good team, would probably have a similar impact on the rogers pockets. Again, I'm more of a casual baseball fan, so I could be speaking out of my ass.
Canada4Gold
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I think they have something like 50-60 million ish to spend. If they sign Soto they're not just going to call it a day because that's the budget. They'll likely get extra to spend on a starter and/or the pen. Lets say it rises to 80 million total. I think that's where the "Soto budget" stuff comes from. We take this unicorn route and we'll give you some more money to make it all work. But under other situations it's just the 50-60.
I do think if they sign Soto they're probably done on offense tbh. Enough money needs to go into the pen and 1 more starter that it's not worth spending what would be needed to upgrade on a Clement at 3rd, Horwitz at DH or Wagner/Orelvis/Jimenez/Schneider combo at 2nd all of which should be able to perform each lineup spot at league average or better.
I would have no issues with Soto as the only acquisition on offense... you would be banking on a rebound from Bichette, though. A Bo/Soto/Vlad/Horwitz gives you a great offensive core, then you have three spots with average to slightly below average offense but elite defense (C, 3B, CF). DH is a rotation, and the bench is mostly young guys with solid upside. Springer would be the biggest concern.
I think the most likely route is that they add one of the second tier hitters (Santander or something), fix the pen, and call it a day. I'm not sure if that's a good enough offensive improvement.
MK78
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- Apr 8, 2023
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One hitter isnt gonna be enough. Although if Bo can return to health & form, it would be almost like getting two hitters. And If Vladdy can be Vladdy from the 2nd half not the 1st half in terms of power.
Lots of ifs and buts.
The Jays finished 23rd in runs scored last year. Replace Kiermaier and the assortment of filler/young guys with Soto and they would have easily been top ten. Get Bo back to normal and it's an excellent lineup.
Look at the Yankees lineup outside of Judge/Soto. It's no better than what the Jays would have outside of Vlad/Soto.
dredeye
BJ Elitist/Hipster
- Mar 3, 2008
- 27,547
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agree 100%. The winter meetings is when things usually start to happen so in the next week or two dominoes should start to fall
They aren't in Oakland anymore. They'll become a real team now
easy pass at those numbers.
Why? It isn’t your money.
Also the BlueJays have next to no financial commitments after 2026. Spend it.
trellaine201
Registered User
Based on that I would say its a team in the east that will sign him. Boston probably doesn’t want a rival getting him.
Buster Olney previews the MLB Winter Meetings | Foul Territory
Foul Territory
December 5, 2024
Buster Olney previews the MLB Winter Meetings, including the Juan Soto sweepstakes and Garrett Crochet trade possibilities. He also reacts to the Golden At-bat proposal and Luis Severino joining the Athletics.
Ross Atkins 'desperate' to make next big mistake, and it's all the Blue Jays' fault
The Jays should've seen this coming a mile away, and now they're set to reap the consequences.
fansided.com
Now fighting for their jobs, Atkins and Co. are big-game hunting again this offseason, with Juan Soto as the team's No. 1 priority. The Jays are in on him, but odds are Soto will spurn them and sign elsewhere. Assuming that happens, Toronto will be left looking for somewhere to splash a ton of cash, and what ESPN's Buster Olney is saying about the Blue Jays makes it seem as if Atkins is going to make some choices that could set the franchise back for years to come.
"At the beginning of this offseason, I was told by some agents and some executives of other teams that the Blue Jays reek of desperation. The Blue Jays are going to do something big. They're going to be aggressive, because they have a situation where you have one year left with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., you got one year left with Bo Bichette. You basically, going forward, have almost a clean slate of a payroll."
Now, on the surface, this sounds perfect for a Soto pursuit. The Jays have tons of money right now, and with a mostly payroll after the 2025 season, they can reasonably commit long-term to Soto without skipping a beat. There is a problem with that, though.
"I don't think he's going to wind up with the Blue Jays, and if he's not, they're going to go out and they're going to do some other things."
Here's where the problem lies. Olney believes that Soto is unlikely to sign with the Blue Jays. If the Jays miss out on him, they're still going to do other things. Doing other things as a team that "reeks of desperation" sounds like it won't play out well.
WeThreeKings
Demidov is a HAB
Buster Olney previews the MLB Winter Meetings | Foul Territory
Foul Territory
December 5, 2024
Buster Olney previews the MLB Winter Meetings, including the Juan Soto sweepstakes and Garrett Crochet trade possibilities. He also reacts to the Golden At-bat proposal and Luis Severino joining the Athletics.
Ross Atkins 'desperate' to make next big mistake, and it's all the Blue Jays' fault
The Jays should've seen this coming a mile away, and now they're set to reap the consequences.
Now fighting for their jobs, Atkins and Co. are big-game hunting again this offseason, with Juan Soto as the team's No. 1 priority. The Jays are in on him, but odds are Soto will spurn them and sign elsewhere. Assuming that happens, Toronto will be left looking for somewhere to splash a ton of cash, and what ESPN's Buster Olney is saying about the Blue Jays makes it seem as if Atkins is going to make some choices that could set the franchise back for years to come.
"At the beginning of this offseason, I was told by some agents and some executives of other teams that the Blue Jays reek of desperation. The Blue Jays are going to do something big. They're going to be aggressive, because they have a situation where you have one year left with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., you got one year left with Bo Bichette. You basically, going forward, have almost a clean slate of a payroll."
Now, on the surface, this sounds perfect for a Soto pursuit. The Jays have tons of money right now, and with a mostly payroll after the 2025 season, they can reasonably commit long-term to Soto without skipping a beat. There is a problem with that, though.
"I don't think he's going to wind up with the Blue Jays, and if he's not, they're going to go out and they're going to do some other things."
Here's where the problem lies. Olney believes that Soto is unlikely to sign with the Blue Jays. If the Jays miss out on him, they're still going to do other things. Doing other things as a team that "reeks of desperation" sounds like it won't play out well.
When has letting a GM, who you are considering firing, play out another season EVER benefitted the team?
The minute you are thinking if this season doesn't go well, I'm getting rid of these guys, you might as well just get rid of them.
This is such a common mistake, it amazes me that it is still happening in 2024.
I have nowhere near the same confidence in this management's ability to make the big moves they need to make, but "The Jays are desperate to make a big splash because they need to win now with this core and the GM is gone if he can't pull it off" is a perfect description of 2015 AA.
Ed Rogers doesn’t know wtf he’s doing. He’s going to let a lame duck GM and President to do desperate things because they want to save their jobs. Best case scenerio is they trade Vladdy and Bo but still have almost zero payroll going forward. If both leave and you give a guy like Fried 250 million what would the purpose be of that. They’re going to tie up payroll, team sinks to the bottom, Shatkins gets fired anyway but now you have a bunch of money tied to a pitching staff on a rebuilding team
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landy92mack29
Registered User
I'd much rather have Bichette+Guerrero signed long term than bring in Soto and have those 2 walk. Then Soto demand out(or have out clause) after 2-3 years
Woodman19
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- Jun 14, 2008
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I would be trying to lock up Guerrero, trade Bichette, replace the GM and retool around Guerrero which is far easier if you can get a little haul for Bo. Salary would reset in a couple of years with a presumably young core coming up to surround Vlad with talent.
phillipmike
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- Oct 27, 2009
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Cubs Reportedly "Determined" To Trade Seiya Suzuki Or Cody Bellinger
The Cubs are "determined" to trade one of first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger or outfielder Seiya Suzuki, reports Joel Sherman of …
www.mlbtraderumors.com
I don't know what Suzuki would cost, but I would do a Suzuki trade without question if the pieces could be lined up.
tmlfan98
No More Excuses #MarnerOut
Not my money so I don’t care but $700-750 mill for Soto is insane. No one should be anywhere near Ohtani’s $700 mill contract and that’s $700 mill with insane deferrals.
Just give me Adames + Fried + Vladdy extension and I would be very happy.
Just give me Adames + Fried + Vladdy extension and I would be very happy.
