There was an analyst on Bunkis' show earlier that made a good point I hadn't considered before with respect to signing Vlad long-term. He said that it is guys that are superior athletes that tend to regress the fastest when they get into their 30s as they lose some of their athleticism (ehem, Springer). Conversely, the...husky lads that rely on traits other than athleticism from day 1 tend to maintain their performance longer.
I don't know if there's empirical evidence to back this, but it does seem logical to me.