2024-25 Calder Race

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I think Michkov is the clear favorite to date, but he's also due for a bit of regression. He's currently sitting at 33 on ice goals vs 26 expected in all situations, with a decently high IPP%, with 11 goals vs 6 expected goals.

Celebrini's pace is a bit more sustainable - 21 on ice goals vs 21 expected in all situations, with a lower IPP%, with 8 goals vs 5 expected. And Stankoven has had some pretty poor puck luck compared to Michkov, with 4 goals vs 7 expected. But barring injury, I don't think either of them will be able to do enough to catch Michkov.

I think the best bet to spoil Michkov's Calder is Lane Hutson. He's due for some of his own pucks to start going in, and it looks like he's staked a claim as the team's #1 PP QB after Matheson held it down for much of the season. I could see him having a pretty prolific back half of the season, especially if Laine can stay healthy.

Assuming the top rookie skaters play the rest of their games, I'd predict:

• Michkov 27 goals 68 points in 80gp
• Hutson 5 goals 60 points in 82gp
• Celebrini 24 goals 58 points in 70gp
• Stankoven 21 goals 58 points in 80gp

In that scenario, I think Hutson could grab a lot of Calder votes, even if he's got a really poor +/- (we saw Seider win it with only 50 points and a -9, and Bedard & Luke Hughes finish 1st and 3rd with -44 and -25 respectively, so clearly its not a stat that moves the needle with voters).

It may also help Hutson that he's currently the only rookie D in the conversation.

---

Regarding Wolf:
While he has had a great season, it's almost impossible for goalies to win the Calder these days. They just don't get enough games. Look at the history of the last 15 years:

• Binnington 24-5 .927 sv% - 2nd to Pettersson's 65 points
• Crawfod 33-18 .917 sv% - not even a finalist
• Skinner 29-14 .914 sv% - 2nd to Beniers' 57 points
• Swaymen & Kochetkov - both 23-14 with .914 and .911 sv% - not even finalists

Wolf could very well post great numbers like the guys above, and finish off the podium. This is just too strong of a rookie class for a goalie to win it IMO.

 

[Kshahdoo]

I think Michkov is the clear favorite to date, but he's also due for a bit of regression. He's currently sitting at 33 on ice goals vs 26 expected in all situations, with a decently high IPP%, with 11 goals vs 6 expected goals.

Celebrini's pace is a bit more sustainable - 21 on ice goals vs 21 expected in all situations, with a lower IPP%, with 8 goals vs 5 expected. And Stankoven has had some pretty poor puck luck compared to Michkov, with 4 goals vs 7 expected. But barring injury, I don't think either of them will be able to do enough to catch Michkov.

I think the best bet to spoil Michkov's Calder is Lane Hutson. He's due for some of his own pucks to start going in, and it looks like he's staked a claim as the team's #1 PP QB after Matheson held it down for much of the season. I could see him having a pretty prolific back half of the season, especially if Laine can stay healthy.

Assuming the top rookie skaters play the rest of their games, I'd predict:

• Michkov 27 goals 68 points in 80gp
• Hutson 5 goals 60 points in 82gp
• Celebrini 24 goals 58 points in 70gp
• Stankoven 21 goals 58 points in 80gp

In that scenario, I think Hutson could grab a lot of Calder votes, even if he's got a really poor +/- (we saw Seider win it with only 50 points and a -9, and Bedard & Luke Hughes finish 1st and 3rd with -44 and -25 respectively, so clearly its not a stat that moves the needle with voters).

It may also help Hutson that he's currently the only rookie D in the conversation.

---

Regarding Wolf:
While he has had a great season, it's almost impossible for goalies to win the Calder these days. They just don't get enough games. Look at the history of the last 15 years:

• Binnington 24-5 .927 sv% - 2nd to Pettersson's 65 points
• Crawfod 33-18 .917 sv% - not even a finalist
• Skinner 29-14 .914 sv% - 2nd to Beniers' 57 points
• Swaymen & Kochetkov - both 23-14 with .914 and .911 sv% - not even finalists

Wolf could very well post great numbers like the guys above, and finish off the podium. This is just too strong of a rookie class for a goalie to win it IMO.

Lol, expected goals... When it comes to Michkov the stat should be called "unexpected goals". And I'm pretty sure Michkov will be at the top of the list.

 

[HeadLiceHatty]

I think Michkov is the clear favorite to date, but he's also due for a bit of regression. He's currently sitting at 33 on ice goals vs 26 expected in all situations, with a decently high IPP%, with 11 goals vs 6 expected goals.

Celebrini's pace is a bit more sustainable - 21 on ice goals vs 21 expected in all situations, with a lower IPP%, with 8 goals vs 5 expected. And Stankoven has had some pretty poor puck luck compared to Michkov, with 4 goals vs 7 expected. But barring injury, I don't think either of them will be able to do enough to catch Michkov.

I think the best bet to spoil Michkov's Calder is Lane Hutson. He's due for some of his own pucks to start going in, and it looks like he's staked a claim as the team's #1 PP QB after Matheson held it down for much of the season. I could see him having a pretty prolific back half of the season, especially if Laine can stay healthy.

Assuming the top rookie skaters play the rest of their games, I'd predict:

• Michkov 27 goals 68 points in 80gp
• Hutson 5 goals 60 points in 82gp
• Celebrini 24 goals 58 points in 70gp
• Stankoven 21 goals 58 points in 80gp

In that scenario, I think Hutson could grab a lot of Calder votes, even if he's got a really poor +/- (we saw Seider win it with only 50 points and a -9, and Bedard & Luke Hughes finish 1st and 3rd with -44 and -25 respectively, so clearly its not a stat that moves the needle with voters).

It may also help Hutson that he's currently the only rookie D in the conversation.

---

Regarding Wolf:
While he has had a great season, it's almost impossible for goalies to win the Calder these days. They just don't get enough games. Look at the history of the last 15 years:

• Binnington 24-5 .927 sv% - 2nd to Pettersson's 65 points
• Crawfod 33-18 .917 sv% - not even a finalist
• Skinner 29-14 .914 sv% - 2nd to Beniers' 57 points
• Swaymen & Kochetkov - both 23-14 with .914 and .911 sv% - not even finalists

Wolf could very well post great numbers like the guys above, and finish off the podium. This is just too strong of a rookie class for a goalie to win it IMO.

The only issue about the “expected goals” that I don’t agree with that if you watch Michkov consistently and actually see how many wide open nets that have been squandered by teammates, it’s astounding, he’s so creative it took his teammates 15 games to even understand how to play with him lol. As the season progresses the game continues to slow down, and he’s making it look much easier, wouldn’t be shocked if he hits close to PPG tbh, he passes every single eye test. Celebrini is a great young player and very well could be in the same tier career wise, but he’ll never be on Michkov’s level offensively, Michkov has been this same monster as an 18 year old, he would have done the same shit if he woulda started last year in the NHL, he’s that talented.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Lol, expected goals... When it comes to Michkov the stat should be called "unexpected goals". And I'm pretty sure Michkov will be at the top of the list.

He's shooting almost 23%, we should expect some regression. Prior to the last 4 games, he was scoring at a 63 point pace, with 25 on ice goals vs 23 expected. Meaning he was trending appropriately at that point. But in the past 4 games, the Flyers have shot 25% with Michkov has been on the ice, and he's got a point on every one of them.

It's very unlikely that continues.

The only issue about the “expected goals” that I don’t agree with that if you watch Michkov consistently and actually see how many wide open nets that have been squandered by teammates, it’s astounding, he’s so creative it took his teammates 15 games to even understand how to play with him lol. As the season progresses the game continues to slow down, and he’s making it look much easier, wouldn’t be shocked if he hits close to PPG tbh, he passes every single eye test. Celebrini is a great young player and very well could be in the same tier career wise, but he’ll never be on Michkov’s level offensively, Michkov has been this same monster as an 18 year old, he would have done the same shit if he woulda started last year in the NHL, he’s that talented.

PPG wouldn't shock me, but he'd have to continue to get great puck luck.

 

[HeadLiceHatty]

He's shooting almost 23%, we should expect some regression. Prior to the last 4 games, he was scoring at a 63 point pace, with 25 on ice goals vs 23 expected. Meaning he was trending appropriately at that point. But in the past 4 games, the Flyers have shot 25% with Michkov has been on the ice, and he's got a point on every one of them.

It's very unlikely that continues.



PPG wouldn't shock me, but he'd have to continue to get great puck luck.

You’re right the shooting percentage is high, he’s not a guy who rips shots and hopes with pucks on net that something happens, he’s shoots knowing he has a chance to score, he’s such a weird player to judge by analytics. I think you watch him so you know what I mean, but I do understand what your stats say and normally you’d be very correct.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

You’re right the shooting percentage is high, he’s not a guy who rips shots and hopes with pucks on net that something happens, he’s shoots knowing he has a chance to score, he’s such a weird player to judge by analytics. I think you watch him so you know what I mean, but I do understand what your stats say and normally you’d be very correct.

He should defintely be able to maintain a higher than average shooting %, not just because he's selective, but because he generates a high number of his chances from in tight. But probably around 12-16% instead of 23%.

 

[ViD]

Gotta say Michkov looks to be even better than Bedard. Great grab by Philly and i'm also patting myself on the back for getting him in my keeper league. Hopefully my keeper league doesn't ban Russian players. But i'm thinking the dumb GMs who grabbed other players before Michkov would love that to happen.

There are keeper leagues that ban Russian players? Are they managed by Hasek by chance ?

 

[Fantomas]

Michkov's SH% will go down but I think his SOG will go up.

 

[FlyguyOX]

He's shooting almost 23%, we should expect some regression. Prior to the last 4 games, he was scoring at a 63 point pace, with 25 on ice goals vs 23 expected. Meaning he was trending appropriately at that point. But in the past 4 games, the Flyers have shot 25% with Michkov has been on the ice, and he's got a point on every one of them.

It's very unlikely that continues.



PPG wouldn't shock me, but he'd have to continue to get great puck luck.

One thing to remember is he was always hyper-efficient as a prospect as well. He wasn't a corsi/xG monster. He just converted extremely well.

 

[wetcoast]

He's not playing enough games? Seems the Flames split 50/50

Daily face-off ranks the race as; MM, Celebrini,Wolf, Stankoven, Hutson.

Calder Trophy Rankings Update: Flames’ Dustin Wolf, Sharks’ Macklin Celebrini coming alive

Matvei Michkov is still No. 1, but the race is tightening.

www.dailyfaceoff.com

As well as Wild has played 40ish games isn't going to bode very well for Calder voting and I would have Hutson 3rd right now.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

Regarding Wolf:
While he has had a great season, it's almost impossible for goalies to win the Calder these days. They just don't get enough games. Look at the history of the last 15 years:

• Binnington 24-5 .927 sv% - 2nd to Pettersson's 65 points
• Crawfod 33-18 .917 sv% - not even a finalist
• Skinner 29-14 .914 sv% - 2nd to Beniers' 57 points
• Swaymen & Kochetkov - both 23-14 with .914 and .911 sv% - not even finalists

Wolf could very well post great numbers like the guys above, and finish off the podium. This is just too strong of a rookie class for a goalie to win it IMO.

I look fondly on the good old days when a goalie could win the Connie Smythe followed on the next year by the Calder...

 

[Kshahdoo]

Another multipoint game for Michkov. 2 primary assists tonight so far, and he's officially a PPG player.

 

[Legion34]

Try to steal a ref’s whistle. Get kicked out and sign a water bottle on the way to the room.

He’s got my vote

 

[FlyguyOX]

Like I said, tier above

 

[HeadLiceHatty]

Like I said, tier above

Everyone who legit watches hockey knows it, it’s just haters that won’t admit lol. Guys doing it with ease, wouldn’t be shocked if he flirts with 80 points in his rookie year.

 

[ViD]

Wasn’t even his best game, but he got his points

 

[Alex K]

4 games, 8(2+6) points, +5 in December

Michkov after Celebrini won rookie of the month:

 

[waitin425]

As of December 12, 2024 it is looking like a 4 horse race at this point. Michkov is the clear front runner IMO. Celrbini without missing a few games would likely be closer to challenging him at this point. Hutson is having an outstanding rookie campaign on the back end. With the Habs rounding into form, his point totals should continue the steady climb. Stankoven is trailing the other three, but is merely a few hot weeks from catching up, and is certainly surrounded by the talent to do that.

Who ya got everyone?

1- MATVEI MICHKOV	​	27	11	16	27	1,00	28	+5
2- LANE HUTSON	​	28	0	19	19	0,68	18	-12
3- MACKLIN CELEBRINI	​	19	8	8	16	0,84	6	-5
4- LOGAN STANKOVEN	​	25	4	12	16	0,64	2	+3

 

[Kshahdoo]

As of December 12, 2024 it is looking like a 4 horse race at this point. Michkov is the clear front runner IMO. Celrbini without missing a few games would likely be closer to challenging him at this point. Hutson is having an outstanding rookie campaign on the back end. With the Habs rounding into form, his point totals should continue the steady climb. Stankoven is trailing the other three, but is merely a few hot weeks from catching up, and is certainly surrounded by the talent to do that.

Who ya got everyone?

1- MATVEI MICHKOV	​	27	11	16	27	1,00	28	+5
2- LANE HUTSON	​	28	0	19	19	0,68	18	-12
3- MACKLIN CELEBRINI	​	19	8	8	16	0,84	6	-5
4- LOGAN STANKOVEN	​	25	4	12	16	0,64	2	+3

Isn't Wolf still good on Calgary?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Isn't Wolf still good on Calgary?

Goalies don't usually start enough games these days to get Calder consideration, especially in such a strong rookie class.

None of the below guys won the Calder, and Wolf's season is at best pretty average among this group. He's 8-5-1 with a .909 sv%:

 

[theVladiator]

In that scenario, I think Hutson could grab a lot of Calder votes, even if he's got a really poor +/- (we saw Seider win it with only 50 points and a -9, and Bedard & Luke Hughes finish 1st and 3rd with -44 and -25 respectively, so clearly its not a stat that moves the needle with voters).

I do not think you have made a good argument at all for the bolded part. I mean, if you have to pad your argument with a 3rd place finisher Luke Hughes, who received 0 first place votes, you gotta know it's weak. Here is what I see looking at historical data:

* only 2 "-" players in the last 10 years won Calder.
* only Bedard's "-" is in double digits.
* not only Seider's "-" is fairly small (-9), and that's while handling tough assignments; his closest competition for Calder that year was Zegras, who was at -21.
* that one time a truly massive "-" player won it (Bedard), he clearly outscored his closest competitor (Faber), while also carrying that shine of the 1OA pick. Personally I think it's that 1OA status and age that clinched the trophy for Bedard.

As far as I can tell +/- is actually treated appropriately by Calder voters - as a secondary stat, that needs to be interpreted in proper context.

 

[Nucker101]

If Hutson takes over the top powerplay spot in Montreal, I think he's going to make a pretty strong case during the 2nd half of this season. The fact he has 19 pts in 28 games without even being given consistent PP1 usage is impressive.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

If Hutson takes over the top powerplay spot in Montreal, I think he's going to make a pretty strong case during the 2nd half of this season. The fact he has 19 pts in 28 games without even being given consistent PP1 usage is impressive.

Laine has just come back from injury and has looked amazing on the PP. I think those numbers are going to go up by a fair bit.

Surprised by the lack of goals though. His shot looked fine in the minors but he barely shoots at all in the NHL. It'd help his case if he had some goals behind him. Pretty great year for rookies.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I do not think you have made a good argument at all for the bolded part. I mean, if you have to pad your argument with a 3rd place finisher Luke Hughes, who received 0 first place votes, you gotta know it's weak. Here is what I see looking at historical data:

* only 2 "-" players in the last 10 years won Calder.
* only Bedard's "-" is in double digits.
* not only Seider's "-" is fairly small (-9), and that's while handling tough assignments; his closest competition for Calder that year was Zegras, who was at -21.
* that one time a truly massive "-" player won it (Bedard), he clearly outscored his closest competitor (Faber), while also carrying that shine of the 1OA pick. Personally I think it's that 1OA status and age that clinched the trophy for Bedard.

As far as I can tell +/- is actually treated appropriately by Calder voters - as a secondary stat, that needs to be interpreted in proper context.

You might be right. It probably also matters a lot more for defenseman. So it could be tough for Hutson to win if he continues to pile up the minuses.

I wonder who would a win Calder with the following hypothetical stats:

Michkov 80gp 27g 68p +2
Hutson 82gp 5g 61p -25
Celebrini 70gp 26g 58p -16
Stankoven 80gp 21g 57p +12

the +/- factor could be a bit of a tie breaker for voters, but then there's Celebrini who has that 1OA shine, and could steal some of the "forward" votes from Michkov (that's how Ekblad won it in 2014).

Should be a really interesting race to watch.

Laine has just come back from injury and has looked amazing on the PP. I think those numbers are going to go up by a fair bit.

Surprised by the lack of goals though. His shot looked fine in the minors but he barely shoots at all in the NHL. It'd help his case if he had some goals behind him. Pretty great year for rookies.

He just needs some puck luck and to improve his timing a bit on cuts to the middle of the ice.

Once 1 goes in I think we'll see him pot a few.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

You might be right. It probably also matters a lot more for defenseman. So it could be tough for Hutson to win if he continues to pile up the minuses.

I wonder who would a win Calder with the following hypothetical stats:

Michkov 80gp 27g 68p +2
Hutson 82gp 5g 61p -25
Celebrini 70gp 26g 58p -16
Stankoven 80gp 21g 57p +12

the +/- factor could be a bit of a tie breaker for voters, but then there's Celebrini who has that 1OA shine, and could steal some of the "forward" votes from Michkov (that's how Ekblad won it in 2014).

Should be a really interesting race to watch.


He just needs some puck luck and to improve his timing a bit on cuts to the middle of the ice.

Once 1 goes in I think we'll see him pot a few.

Hutson currently is on pace for 55 pts while Michkov is pacing for 80 . He’d really need to go on an extended slump for the numbers to be close imo . He seems to just be settling in so I’m not sure it’s a super accurate launching point. If you told me Michkov was going to get 60 ish points as a rookie at the beginning of the year id have been satisfied but the bar has been raised somewhat . Maybe not ppg but 70 something seems doable. 60 pt finish for Michkov would impure a pace of 33 pts over the remaining 53 games ; seems light ( roughly 51 pt pace )