Prospect Info: 2024 207th Overall - Mac Swanson (F)

Michael Farkas

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I didn’t hate the swing in in the 7th
I don't hate it. Considering how many D.O.A. picks we've made over the last several years. I don't mean guys that didn't work out...I mean, guys that I watch at 18 and go, "ok, yeah, no chance..."

This isn't "no chance" because there's talent there, there's intelligence there. I'll take anything above "no chance" at this point haha
 

CheckingLineCenter

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I don't hate it. Considering how many D.O.A. picks we've made over the last several years. I don't mean guys that didn't work out...I mean, guys that I watch at 18 and go, "ok, yeah, no chance..."

This isn't "no chance" because there's talent there, there's intelligence there. I'll take anything above "no chance" at this point haha
To be honest, I think the bigger issue than his size and deficiencies and whatnot is that you have to score at a really high rate in the NHL (like near a point per game) to have any value if you’re not a play driver, goal scorer, or good at retreiving loose pucks. I don’t really think Swanson would be in a different boat at 5’9, 5’11 than he currently is at 5’7.

Like Jake Guentzel, Nikita Kucherov wouldn’t be that valuable to contending teams if they topped out as 10-15 goal, 35-55 point guys. Mikael Granlund the last few years is a good example. Spooner before that.
 
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Randy Butternubs

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Hello friends,

Made a post on the Prospects board - here. Breaking down some elements of his game and what it takes to play small. There's Zam Plante stuff in here too, by association.



I like this so, so much more than the partial quote that EP lists in their draft guide ("...he's just too small").

Seems like his hockey sense needs some work too in addition to the skating.
 
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Michael Farkas

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I don’t really think Swanson would be in a different boat at 5’9, 5’11 than he currently is at 5’7.
Yeah, and I hinted at that somewhere late in the video too...if this player is 5'11", I'm not suddenly in love with him. He probably goes from "ND" to "C".

I actually have a fairly detailed formula that I use as a guide to make my lists easier. Because after a year of watching guys, what's really the difference between your area's 33rd ranked guy and 34th, right? So, I have this weighted formula to just make sure kids are slotted in the right spots without me having to spend all day thinking about the order of two players that won't play.

Anyway, with average height/athleticism/physical prowess, he still only grades to being a mid-C player for me. More or less tied with Justin Solovey and Caeden Herrington (neither were taken).

But again, I don't want to kill the pick because it's still an improvement on ****** Nolan Collins and the like...
 

Mr. T

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Maybe they meant he's too small of character and just a colossal asshole
 

Randy Butternubs

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I think the hockey sense is there, no question. I just need something else to complement it. Can I get a puck back? Can I get elite puck handling to buy himself some time? You can't just "think" your way into the NHL at 5'7", ya know?

When I said "hockey sense" I was trying to refer to the times in the video where you pointed out his questionable or non-ideal passes made. Maybe "decision making" is a more appropriate phrase I should've used?
 

Michael Farkas

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Gotcha, yeah. Like I said in there, I'm reading that he's this Batman-level playmaker (pretending I didn't watch him all year myself)...all right, he better be. That's what a guy like Zuccarello was to make it eventually. And Swanson definitely is an intermediate playmaker. But we're gonna need advanced playmaking. Advanced creative problem solving. Advanced playmakers don't take themselves out of the play unless it's to eat a hit (which he does do in that video, to be fair)...advanced playmakers improve the condition of the play, improve the condition of their teammates on a consistent basis. Not every time. Not perfection, that's not the bar. But I shouldn't be able to kick over those sequences two and three times a period at this level.

It doesn't take away from what he did. It doesn't take away from his production. It's justified, it's not gimmicky. But you also can't take it with you unless you have pro qualities. Taylor Cammarata didn't.
 

Peat

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Thanks @Michael Farkas - that video goes some way to answering some of my questions as to how a guy with his rep and production fell to the 7th and why that's probably the right call.
 
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Sampe from the 2000s

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Jun 8, 2024
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For what it's worth, I had Matthew Phillips ranked #110 in 2016 (69 spots lower than Swanson this year). Arguably a similar player type, but a completely different production type. That said, Swanson was at the very bottom of his production tier - as low as I could possibly have him - partially for the reasons highlighted by Michael.

Swanson is the ultimate test of your drafting philosophy. If you're size & player type first, he won't make your top 100. If you're production first, he's top 20 or at the very least top 45. The former philosophy works better for the purpose of avoiding busts, the latter works better for recognizing late round steals. Depends on what you want. I want the Brayden Points, the Johnny Gaudreaus and the Matias Maccellis (well-producing players the scouts didn't like for whatever reason). But because of that I have to accept that I sometimes end up with the Brian Swansons (Mac's dad). At least Brian knows how hard it is to make it!
 

UnrealMachine

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Great pick by you guys. You probably stole a top 6 forward in the 7th round. I had him ranked 32. He was one of my favorite players in this draft.

I was screaming with excitement when someone finally picked him. I was so angry how teams were discriminating against him because of his height. It was sickening. He was one of the most accomplished players in this draft and he goes 7th round? WTF is wrong with NHL scouts? You'd think he was 5'2 or had a significant criminal history with how they treat him for being undersized (a height there are plenty of NHL'ers).

Not only did NHL teams discriminate against him, but NHL Central Scouting also did. They refused to invite him to the NHL Draft Combine. Meanwhile, there are probably 30 players who won't even make the ECHL that they invited. I guess Mac isn't big and tough and bad at hockey like some players, so it didn't matter that he was the best player in the USHL this year and did that as a draft eligible. And for someone like him that would've needed to prove his height to NHL teams it's more costly. Just very unfair how they treated him. He's listed at 5'8, but his father (who played in the NHL) is 5'10, so maybe he will still grow a little. Would've been nice for Central Scouting to let him prove that, but when you're undersized it's not an easy road to getting respect.

He had legitimately the best hockey sense and passing vision of any player in this draft. He's the type of player that can absolutely run a power play and give his teammates tap ins that completely undress a defense. He processes the game at such an advanced level. He already knows where he's going with the puck before he receives it. That allows him to avoid hits, and be effective with the puck despite only being 5'8. He's not really a flashy puck handler or an elite skater. He moves the puck very quickly and doesn't take many touches with it. I think his skating is actually NHL average for 5'8, but he's looking to play possession hockey and not north-south dump and chase, so he doesn't play with that much pace, and some people question his skating. But when he needs it, he can turn on the motor and pick up pace. He's definitely more of a passer, but his goal scoring picked up a lot this season. He's very willing to go to the slot areas and dirty areas, despite his size.

I think he's also a fine defensive player. He has PK experience and center experience, but I think realistically thats not what he is in the NHL. Maybe PK later in his career, but you're drafting him for the scoring. My comparison has been Mats Zuccarello, and I think thats a fair approximation of what his career outcome will likely be. Zuccarello wasnt drafted. His height constantly questioned, and he kept proving everyone wrong all the way to becoming a first line NHL winger. That's what I think Mac will do.

He won literally everything he could this year in the USHL (League MVP, Forward of the Year, Regular Season Title, Playoff Title, Playoff MVP). I know people question if small players can perform in the playoffs, but the gap between him and second place in playoff scoring (7 points) was the same gap between second place and 65th place. He might've won playoff MVP even if his team lost. He also took the assist record from Nikita Kucherov at the WJAC19, and tied the all time points record at that tournament.

There is essentially nothing more he could've proven. He's just small. If he was two inches taller, he would've been a first round pick. And if he was four inches taller, he would've been a top 5 pick. He isn't, so of course thats a factor and there's always the chance that his size limits him, but I think he's the classic case of NHL teams thinking they are so much smarter than everyone else and ignoring a player who for the 2024 draft has been one of the best players in this age cohort for the last couple of years.
I just want to note that I love the passion (and information) behind this post and hope everything comes to fruition for this prospect. Lord knows we need it.
 

OtherThingsILike

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When I said "hockey sense" I was trying to refer to the times in the video where you pointed out his questionable or non-ideal passes made. Maybe "decision making" is a more appropriate phrase I should've used?
Could it be something where he has a really high hockey IQ and is expecting his teammates to do the 'correct' thing and they just aren't?
Similar to how we sometimes see Sidney Crosby make questionable or non-ideal passes.
 

Jacob

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Where was Swanson born? Most places say Anchorage but hockeydb says Nurnberg Germany.
 

Hockeyville USA

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Where was Swanson born? Most places say Anchorage but hockeydb says Nurnberg Germany.
Likely in Germany when his dad Brian was playing in the DEL. HockeyDB goes back and forth between listing birthplace and hometown, as several guys were born in one place but grew up in another (ex: Cole Sillinger, Quinn Finley, Thomas Bordeleau, Jake Sanderson). I find that EliteProspects just lists birthplace and they're very accurate with it.

EDIT: EliteProspects lists Anchorage as Mac's birthplace, but as Brian was playing in Germany that year, Mac could have been born there too. Who knows, but clearly raised in Anchorage.
 
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Jacob

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Likely in Germany when his dad Brian was playing in the DEL. HockeyDB goes back and forth between listing birthplace and hometown, as several guys were born in one place but grew up in another (ex: Cole Sillinger, Quinn Finley, Thomas Bordeleau, Jake Sanderson). I find that EliteProspects just lists birthplace and they're very accurate with it.

EDIT: EliteProspects lists Anchorage as Mac's birthplace, but as Brian was playing in Germany that year, Mac could have been born there too. Who knows, but clearly raised in Anchorage.
Does line up. Wasn’t aware his dad was an NHLer.
 
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Randy Butternubs

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Likely in Germany when his dad Brian was playing in the DEL. HockeyDB goes back and forth between listing birthplace and hometown, as several guys were born in one place but grew up in another (ex: Cole Sillinger, Quinn Finley, Thomas Bordeleau, Jake Sanderson). I find that EliteProspects just lists birthplace and they're very accurate with it.

EDIT: EliteProspects lists Anchorage as Mac's birthplace, but as Brian was playing in Germany that year, Mac could have been born there too. Who knows, but clearly raised in Anchorage.

EP is kinda like Wikipedia. Anyone can edit but you need to pay for a certain membership and have a source. Heck, maybe I'll make up a source and say he's from Mexico City.
 
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DesertPenguin

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Seems like a prospect that could use a year off hockey in Mexico to "find himself" and totally not take HGH. Wink wink nudge
 

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