Prospect Info: 2024 207th Overall - Mac Swanson (F)

[Hockeyville USA]

His draft assessments that I have read of him are almost exactly aligned with Corey Locke. Locke had terrific playmaking skills; his size, skating, and perimeter play are what hindered him from making that next step. Locke was elite offensively in every professional league he played in, except for the NHL.

I don't mind taking a chance on Swanson. His limitations sound as if they're too steep for him to be a NHL regular, but you always root for a kid like this to succeed. If he could have a career similar to David Desharnais (although David was a quicker and better skater), you would take it.

Corey Locke had 43 points in 55 games in the O in his DY, then exploded in his D+1 for 151 points in 66 games, and fell back to merely normal awesome 118 points in 65 games in his D+2.

Swanson put up 55 points in 57 games in the USHL in his D-1 (16 year old season), which is damn good since very few (non NTDP) players make a USHL roster as 16 year olds, and even fewer play big minutes. Swanson then put up 77 points in 55 games in his DY, and again, extremely impressive for a 17 year old in the USHL. Scouts have said he will get Hobey Baker votes while at North Dakota.

Sure, production isn't the end all be all, but Swanson is on track to becoming a valuable asset for the Penguins, and with a little improvement in his skating, could become an NHLer, at least for a few years. Worth following for sure.

 

[Freeptop]

Being brutally honest, chances are, Swanson won't make it. But this is exactly the kind of swing-for-the-fences choice I want to see the Pens make in the seventh round. Sometimes you end up hitting a home run, after all.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Great pick by you guys. You probably stole a top 6 forward in the 7th round. I had him ranked 32. He was one of my favorite players in this draft.

I was screaming with excitement when someone finally picked him. I was so angry how teams were discriminating against him because of his height. It was sickening. He was one of the most accomplished players in this draft and he goes 7th round? WTF is wrong with NHL scouts? You'd think he was 5'2 or had a significant criminal history with how they treat him for being undersized (a height there are plenty of NHL'ers).

Not only did NHL teams discriminate against him, but NHL Central Scouting also did. They refused to invite him to the NHL Draft Combine. Meanwhile, there are probably 30 players who won't even make the ECHL that they invited. I guess Mac isn't big and tough and bad at hockey like some players, so it didn't matter that he was the best player in the USHL this year and did that as a draft eligible. And for someone like him that would've needed to prove his height to NHL teams it's more costly. Just very unfair how they treated him. He's listed at 5'8, but his father (who played in the NHL) is 5'10, so maybe he will still grow a little. Would've been nice for Central Scouting to let him prove that, but when you're undersized it's not an easy road to getting respect.

He had legitimately the best hockey sense and passing vision of any player in this draft. He's the type of player that can absolutely run a power play and give his teammates tap ins that completely undress a defense. He processes the game at such an advanced level. He already knows where he's going with the puck before he receives it. That allows him to avoid hits, and be effective with the puck despite only being 5'8. He's not really a flashy puck handler or an elite skater. He moves the puck very quickly and doesn't take many touches with it. I think his skating is actually NHL average for 5'8, but he's looking to play possession hockey and not north-south dump and chase, so he doesn't play with that much pace, and some people question his skating. But when he needs it, he can turn on the motor and pick up pace. He's definitely more of a passer, but his goal scoring picked up a lot this season. He's very willing to go to the slot areas and dirty areas, despite his size.

I think he's also a fine defensive player. He has PK experience and center experience, but I think realistically thats not what he is in the NHL. Maybe PK later in his career, but you're drafting him for the scoring. My comparison has been Mats Zuccarello, and I think thats a fair approximation of what his career outcome will likely be. Zuccarello wasnt drafted. His height constantly questioned, and he kept proving everyone wrong all the way to becoming a first line NHL winger. That's what I think Mac will do.

He won literally everything he could this year in the USHL (League MVP, Forward of the Year, Regular Season Title, Playoff Title, Playoff MVP). I know people question if small players can perform in the playoffs, but the gap between him and second place in playoff scoring (7 points) was the same gap between second place and 65th place. He might've won playoff MVP even if his team lost. He also took the assist record from Nikita Kucherov at the WJAC19, and tied the all time points record at that tournament.

There is essentially nothing more he could've proven. He's just small. If he was two inches taller, he would've been a first round pick. And if he was four inches taller, he would've been a top 5 pick. He isn't, so of course thats a factor and there's always the chance that his size limits him, but I think he's the classic case of NHL teams thinking they are so much smarter than everyone else and ignoring a player who for the 2024 draft has been one of the best players in this age cohort for the last couple of years.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Hey he’s American and if he’s from Boston watch out….Sullivan might have another niece

He's from Anchorage, Alaska.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

From EP's Industry Chatter section of Mac:

"...he's just too small."​

f*** off size queen (there could be more to that quote but that's all EP has printed). How have scouts not learned that being under 5'10" isn't the be all end all? This reminds me of when teams didn't draft Debrincat in the first round.

That said, EP does say that he needs to work on his skating and strength:

"The skating has definitely improved since last season, achieving more flexion, but he remains an underdeveloped skater. Pronounced heel kick, inefficient stride, form breaks down fast, and doesn’t show much ability off his edges. Realistically, he’s not a pick, but he’s also probably a top-10 passer in this draft class.​

​

He has some physical skills, but lacks the special early contact, proactive physical stuff that he’ll need to play his size. Skating’s more of a weakness than strength, too. Lacks power, dynamism (i.e., crossover rushes, acceleration through edge work), and explosiveness through his edges.
​

Not a dynamic skater (lacks weight shift and crossover patterns), lacks separation ability, and his physical game lacks that extra layer of proactivity.
​

Skating must improve: Ankle mobility, crossover frequency, weight shift, and in motion plays. He’s small and not dynamic, but he’s a killer regardless. Gonna be fun watching him."​

@Jesse the above might be the words you're looking for.

Given he'll be at the Development Camp I suspect skating is the area that they'll focus on with him. A good hockey sense can make up for a lack of skating ability. That said, if his skating really is that bad then his point totals are even more impressive.

 

[Jesse]

He had legitimately the best hockey sense and passing vision of any player in this draft.

I have to respectfully disagree with this. He is definitely an unreal playmaker that puts up assists numbers that back that up, but I think even someone like Beckett Sennecke or someone playing against pros like Konsta Helenius are a clear step ahead here as far as hockey sense is concerned.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

From EP's Industry Chatter section of Mac:

"...he's just too small."​

f*** off size queen (there could be more to that quote but that's all EP has printed). How have scouts not learned that being under 5'10" isn't the be all end all? This reminds me of when teams didn't draft Debrincat in the first round.

That said, EP does say that he needs to work on his skating and strength:

"The skating has definitely improved since last season, achieving more flexion, but he remains an underdeveloped skater. Pronounced heel kick, inefficient stride, form breaks down fast, and doesn’t show much ability off his edges. Realistically, he’s not a pick, but he’s also probably a top-10 passer in this draft class.​

​

He has some physical skills, but lacks the special early contact, proactive physical stuff that he’ll need to play his size. Skating’s more of a weakness than strength, too. Lacks power, dynamism (i.e., crossover rushes, acceleration through edge work), and explosiveness through his edges.​

​

Not a dynamic skater (lacks weight shift and crossover patterns), lacks separation ability, and his physical game lacks that extra layer of proactivity.​

​

Skating must improve: Ankle mobility, crossover frequency, weight shift, and in motion plays. He’s small and not dynamic, but he’s a killer regardless. Gonna be fun watching him."​

@Jesse the above might be the words you're looking for.

Given he'll be at the Development Camp I suspect skating is the area that they'll focus on with him. A good hockey sense can make up for a lack of skating ability. That said, if his skating really is that bad then his point totals are even more impressive.

tbh all this seems fixable if he becomes a man. Dude looks alike a middle schooler (not exaggerating I coach middle school lax ).

Really weird comparison but kind of a similar gamble to Pickering. Obviously more of a dice roll but it’s a 7th.

 

[Peat]

tbh all this seems fixable if he becomes a man. Dude looks alike a middle schooler (not exaggerating I coach middle school lax ).

Really weird comparison but kind of a similar gamble to Pickering. Obviously more of a dice roll but it’s a 7th.

If he grows into his frame he'll make it? Guess it makes sense.

I think for me my ho-hum about this insofar as there's even a ho-hum about a 7th rounder is it sounds like every team knew about him, all the many scouts in his area knew about him, and none felt great about fixing his problems. But there we go.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

If he grows into his frame he'll make it? Guess it makes sense.

I think for me my ho-hum about this insofar as there's even a ho-hum about a 7th rounder is it sounds like every team knew about him, all the many scouts in his area knew about him, and none felt great about fixing his problems. But there we go.

More like “if this prospect undergoes a significant physical transformation and we’re lucky enough that his skating and explosiveness significantly improve in line with that transformation

…he might have a shot”

 

[PenguinSuitedUp]

I have to respectfully disagree with this. He is definitely an unreal playmaker that puts up assists numbers that back that up, but I think even someone like Beckett Sennecke or someone playing against pros like Konsta Helenius are a clear step ahead here as far as hockey sense is concerned.

This is what confuses me about comments surrounding a pick like this. If Swanson had the top hockey vision in the draft, why did he fall to the 7th round, and why wasn’t he more highly touted as a top 30-60 pick? I just have a hard time reconciling this train of thought.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

This is what confuses me about comments surrounding a pick like this. If Swanson had the top hockey vision in the draft, why did he fall to the 7th round, and why wasn’t he more highly touted as a top 30-60 pick? I just have a hard time reconciling this train of thought.

You have a hard time reconciling he’s 5’7 150 and not a good skater?

He can both have tremendous vision/IQ and not be a good prospect.

Vice versa- Yakupov had terrible sense and went 1st. And so on.

Big picture you have to be an excellent hockey player to even be in the USHL for 2 seasons at Swansons age. Much less have success but they’re still good players in the grand scheme of things. It’s not unreasonable for someone to have the opinion his sense was tops in the class tbh. And it’s not unreasonable for others to disagree. People gonna have different opinions about the same players. You gotta be smart to put up the numbers he did with little tools.

 

[PenguinSuitedUp]

You have a hard time reconciling he’s 5’7 150 and not a good skater?

He can both have tremendous vision/IQ and not be a good prospect.

Vice versa- Yakupov had terrible sense and went 1st. And so on.

Big picture you have to be an excellent hockey player to even be in the USHL for 2 seasons at Swansons age. Much less have success but they’re still good players in the grand scheme of things. It’s not unreasonable for someone to have the opinion his sense was tops in the class tbh. And it’s not unreasonable for others to disagree. People gonna have different opinions about the same players. You gotta be smart to put up the numbers he did with little tools.

I understand skating can be a detractor, but if a guy truly had top offensive talent in the draft, whether it’s in terms of vision, playmaking, etc, you would think that would supersede skating issues. I would think it’s easier to improve skating, and a lot harder to teach someone top-tier offensive vision.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I understand skating can be a detractor, but if a guy truly had top offensive talent in the draft, whether it’s in terms of vision, playmaking, etc, you would think that would supersede skating issues. I would think it’s easier to improve skating, and a lot harder to teach someone top-tier offensive vision.

I mean dude there’s so many junior players that are super smart players and super scorers that never make the NHL for a multitude of reasons.

Look at Bracco on the NTDP
Locke in the OHL

It wasn’t a fluke that they had good hockey sense and vision. They legit did and dominated good leagues up to the AHL. Just when it came to making the very highest level they never had the athleticism to make it. but again that doesn’t mean that they their offensive IQ wasn’t high end or elite.

This kid is in a similar boat. So again, he can both have high end intangibles and be a bad prospect.

 

[PenguinSuitedUp]

I mean dude there’s so many junior players that are super smart players and super scorers that never make the NHL for a multitude of reasons.

Look at Bracco on the NTDP
Locke in the OHL

It wasn’t a fluke that they had good hockey sense and vision. They legit did and dominated good leagues up to the AHL. Just when it came to making the very highest level they never had the athleticism to make it. but again that doesn’t mean that they their offensive IQ wasn’t high end or elite.

This kid is in a similar boat. So again, he can both have high end intangibles and be a bad prospect.

That’s all fair. It’s just hard for me to fathom that his vision is THAT good. Hopefully we get a good look in the development camps.

 

[Gurglesons]

I understand skating can be a detractor, but if a guy truly had top offensive talent in the draft, whether it’s in terms of vision, playmaking, etc, you would think that would supersede skating issues. I would think it’s easier to improve skating, and a lot harder to teach someone top-tier offensive vision.

Go look up the numbers of players in the NHL that are his height.

People want to act like smaller players can make huge impacts in the NHL, but it simply isn't true.

It can happen, but it takes everything breaking the right way.

 

[PenguinSuitedUp]

Go look up the numbers of players in the NHL that are his height.

People want to act like smaller players can make huge impacts in the NHL, but it simply isn't true.

It can happen, but it takes everything breaking the right way.

I agree to an extent, mostly depending what you classify as a smaller player. But we’ve seen more small players come through as the league has become less physical. I’m mostly skeptical of the idea that he has top-tier vision in the draft, but let’s see.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I have to respectfully disagree with this. He is definitely an unreal playmaker that puts up assists numbers that back that up, but I think even someone like Beckett Sennecke or someone playing against pros like Konsta Helenius are a clear step ahead here as far as hockey sense is concerned.

I am not a Sennecke fan. I think being barely over 1PPG for the regular season (and under it halfway through until one of the best players in the league returned from injury and his totals shot up) says it all.

Helenius, well we are talking about different types of hockey sense. Helenius is reliable and had success in a men’s league. Coaches will trust him. He makes very few mistakes. Swanson sees plays a step ahead. He’s the type of player that can mentally out-process opponents. I think this is a strong area for Helenius, but I think having those high end mental attributes is more impressive than being consistent and reliable and making few errors. You find that in players who play on the fourth line or third defensive play. You don’t find very many players who can legitimately consistently outthink other players outside of the top forward lines and defensive pairs. Hence, Swanson’s hockey sense carries more potential with it.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I’m mostly skeptical of the idea that he has top-tier vision in the draft, but let’s see.

I think it’s fine to be skeptical but it’s really not an outrageous statement. He led the USHL in assists as a draft eligible.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

I understand skating can be a detractor, but if a guy truly had top offensive talent in the draft, whether it’s in terms of vision, playmaking, etc, you would think that would supersede skating issues. I would think it’s easier to improve skating, and a lot harder to teach someone top-tier offensive vision.

That might be true, but you need to be able to skate at a certain level in order to make the NHL. You don't need to have top-tier offensive vision in order to make it.
How many playaers have we seen in the NHL who we can say 'He's fast and that's it' for?

 

[Factorial]

That might be true, but you need to be able to skate at a certain level in order to make the NHL. You don't need to have top-tier offensive vision in order to make it.
How many playaers have we seen in the NHL who we can say 'He's fast and that's it' for?

Is his skating worse than Alex Hicks?

 

[Turin]

I’m almost through this shift-by-shift of him and I’m going to be a bit of a bummer.



He’s very perimeter-y, and when he hears footsteps coming like when the puck comes to him at the point in the D zone he tends to.. not bail out but make a conscious effort to avoid any contact. Though he took some bumps no problem too. And I’m not seeing the elite, waterbug type skating you need to overcome the size disadvantage. You know, what separates the Gaudreaus from the Matt Phillips.

The pick is definitely in the small hope that he grows and is able to develop parts of his game massively, it's not because of putting much stock in his stats or else they wouldn't have waited til the 7th to draft him. Watching him - yea he's like being down a man defensively and on the forecheck. Zero speed, zero desire to initiate contact. He's basically all hands/head in open ice which won't get you to the NHL. He needs to grow and become A LOT more powerful on his skates and a lot less scared to initiate along the wall. Most of the NHL game is on the wall, unless you're a godly skater like Gaudreau or Kessel you will not sniff the NHL being that soft.

 

[Sampe from the 2000s]

I am not a Sennecke fan. I think being barely over 1PPG for the regular season (and under it halfway through until one of the best players in the league returned from injury and his totals shot up) says it all.

Helenius, well we are talking about different types of hockey sense. Helenius is reliable and had success in a men’s league. Coaches will trust him. He makes very few mistakes. Swanson sees plays a step ahead. He’s the type of player that can mentally out-process opponents. I think this is a strong area for Helenius, but I think having those high end mental attributes is more impressive than being consistent and reliable and making few errors. You find that in players who play on the fourth line or third defensive play. You don’t find very many players who can legitimately consistently outthink other players outside of the top forward lines and defensive pairs. Hence, Swanson’s hockey sense carries more potential with it.

As a Sennecke fan and a Finn, I agree with your take on Helenius and Swanson. Both cerebral, but Swanson is more of a creative type (e.g. Granlund, Maccelli) while Helenius is more of a quick mature processing type (somewhere between Lundell and Aho playmaking wise).

Helenius is not the superior prospect because he has an even better hockey sense than Swanson. He's the superior prospect because he's several inches taller than Swanson and has the skating to boot. His quickness isn't immediately evident like that of a Brad Lambert, but he's surprisingly slippery (not only clever on the ice, but he placed 8th/19th in pro agility left/right at the Combine). And once he gets going he can flat out fly. His top speed in Liiga in 23-24 was clocked at 38.02 KPH, which is very near Lambert's top speed of 38.27 KPH back in 21-22 (his draft year).

That said, as a Pittsburgh fan this was my favorite Penguins pick in years. Getting the USHL champion/MVP/playoff MVP at #207 is highway robbery. I had him at #41 and that's just because I knew I didn't have to rank him higher to get him. Yes, the pick is risky. But playing it safe on draft day is a lot riskier still. Best case scenario is that you end up with a bunch of low-value middle 6 Fs and bottom pairing Ds who do *nothing* to help your quest for the Stanley Cup. It's a lateral move. Plus at #207 there *are* no safe picks left anyway. Especially if one ignores production, which happens to correlate with NHL success. With the exception of the Carolina Hurricanes, most NHL teams have not yet realized this. I'm glad we're finally heading in the right direction.