Rumor: 2024-2025 Trade Rumors and Free Agency Talk | The Slow Crawl to the Season

[henchman21]

The Avs have no choice but to re-sign Rantanen. He will get what he wants or very close to it.

No package of futures in a trade gives us a better chance of winning in our rapidly closing window… and you can’t let him walk. Period.

That's what people tell themselves to justify decisions they know they shouldn't make.

Funny enough, I agree with both of these. This will end up a bad decision, but I also don't think there is a choice. If the window isn't closed now, it is certainly within 2-3 seasons. There isn't a trade today with Rants that returns enough to be worth it. Long-term, this will hurt the team's competitive ability (but be nice PR). Trading Rants a year or two ago, might have made sense because that return would have been more and we'd being the pieces brought back either a part of the core now or or close to it.

 

[Ararana]

Funny enough, I agree with both of these. This will end up a bad decision, but I also don't think there is a choice. If the window isn't closed now, it is certainly within 2-3 seasons. There isn't a trade today with Rants that returns enough to be worth it. Long-term, this will hurt the team's competitive ability (but be nice PR). Trading Rants a year or two ago, might have made sense because that return would have been more and we'd being the pieces brought back either a part of the core now or or close to it.

I'll admit, if Nuke didn't dive head fist into a pile of cocaine letting Mikko go would have been a bit easier - especially with Drouin sticking around.

And the PR aspect shouldn't be taken too lightly. If you can't win cups, at least sell a lot of shit.

 

[John Mandalorian]

The Avs have no choice but to re-sign Rantanen. He will get what he wants or very close to it.

No package of futures in a trade gives us a better chance of winning in our rapidly closing window… and you can’t let him walk. Period.

What makes this even more true is that one might initially say don’t dismiss the value of opening up cap space. But in saying that, you’re then left with the reality that the Avs are one of the least aggressive teams in free agency. Emphasizing the value of cap space implies the Avs become more aggressive in using that cap space. That’s hardly a safe assumption.

 

[henchman21]

I'll admit, if Nuke didn't dive head fist into a pile of cocaine letting Mikko go would have been a bit easier - especially with Drouin sticking around.

And the PR aspect shouldn't be taken too lightly. If you can't win cups, at least sell a lot of shit.

Yup... in the end it is a business, and nothing looks worse than letting a star, face of the franchise player walk over money.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

What makes this even more true is that one might initially say don’t dismiss the value of opening up cap space. But in saying that, you’re then left with the reality that the Avs are one of the least aggressive teams in free agency. Emphasizing the value of cap space implies the Avs become more aggressive in using that cap space. That’s hardly a safe assumption.

But salary can also be added via trades. Mikko would open space, get a really good young player or two and a shit ton of draft capital. We could very well end up with a cost effective or more cost balanced top six winger? Or we could get a guy that is more like Lehky who can easily play wing on second or third line. That draft capital should be used to by good RFAs to be a good cost effective supporting cast for MacK, Mitts and RosCo to work with. Also need to get another 2RD soon. But...

JD-MacK-Nuke (come mid-Nov)
Landy-Mitts-Lehky

That's still a quality top six. But I sure would like at least one of the pieces coming back to be a young player ready to step into the top six for insurance.

 

[AslanRH]

meh, the PR team can just wait for the Stastny effect to set in.
This board pretty much buried him when he "left for money".
PR team didn't even have to try.

 

[GoNordiquesGo]

Pasternak, Nylander, EP are the latest comparable of players re-signing with their teams and represent adjusted cap numbers in the $12M.

Panarin got his contract on the UFA market. Players will usually get more out there due to competition. Players re-signing with their team usually leave a little on the table, to avoid the hassle of moving and changing their family lives.

If the Avs re-sign him north of $13M, I'll be surprised and disappointed.

 

[henchman21]

meh, the PR team can just wait for the Stastny effect to set in.
This board pretty much buried him when he "left for money".
PR team didn't even have to try.

Rants is more Forsberg/Foote than Stastny.

Pasternak, Nylander, EP are the latest comparable of players re-signing with their teams and represent adjusted cap numbers in the $12M (or less).

Panarin got his contract on the UFA market. Players will usually get more out there due to competition. Players re-signing with their team usually leave a little on the table, to avoid the hassle of moving and changing their family lives.

If the Avs re-sign him north of $13M, I'll be surprised and disappointed.

Adjusted for percentage of cap, those three are all above $12m on the $92m cap Rants will be starting under.

 

[GoNordiquesGo]

I thought Nylander was a little below $12M. I edited to remove the (or less).
Doesn't change the essence of my poste however.

 

[henchman21]

I thought Nylander was a little below $12M. I edited to remove the (or less).
Doesn't change the essence of my poste however.

Nylander is a touch above 12m. Pasta is ~12.5. EP is ~12.15. That's at 92 when were looking at closer to 92.5-93m (minimum is probably 92.4m). If Rants wants to be recognized a touch above them as a percentage of cap (what Rants' agent just did with Drai over MacK), we're looking at the MacK contract.

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

But salary can also be added via trades. Mikko would open space, get a really good young player or two and a shit ton of draft capital. We could very well end up with a cost effective or more cost balanced top six winger? Or we could get a guy that is more like Lehky who can easily play wing on second or third line. That draft capital should be used to by good RFAs to be a good cost effective supporting cast for MacK, Mitts and RosCo to work with. Also need to get another 2RD soon. But...

JD-MacK-Nuke (come mid-Nov)
Landy-Mitts-Lehky

That's still a quality top six. But I sure would like at least one of the pieces coming back to be a young player ready to step into the top six for insurance.

The pool of teams that could just take on a $12 million forward is small. The pool of teams Mikko might want to sign with could be even smaller.

I also think the trade return is likely to be very underwhelming. What did Pittsburgh get for Guentzel? Bunting, no 1st, and none of Carolina’s top 5 prospects.

 

[henchman21]

The pool of teams that could just take on a $12 million forward is small. The pool of teams Mikko might want to sign with could be even smaller.

I also think the trade return is likely to be very underwhelming. What did Pittsburgh get for Guentzel? Bunting, no 1st, and none of Carolina’s top 5 prospects.

Rants is certainly a step up from Guentzel, but I'd agree the return at this point wouldn't be huge. We're talking former 1st round pick or 2nd-3rd rounder who has progressed well and a first or two. Nothing that can really help now or even the next year or two. The time to move Rants was a season or two ago. Would have had term, could have been a hockey trade swap to rebalance the lineup, and probably could have swung a tad younger. That is long gone now.

 

[Ararana]

I mean, it sucks, but we have to accept that the trade return is a secondary issue at this point. The primary issue is if you extend Rantanen, you're chances of competing drop significantly more than if you let him go and accept Drouin as his replacement. History shows it over and over, you're not going deep into the postseason if you can't afford proper depth.

If Rantanen gets 12 (why on earth would he accept that little) then the Avs have over 40 million locked in for their 4 highest paid players. Assuming the cap goes up to 92 million in 2025, thats 44.4% of their cap room for four players. That's before Landeskog and/or Nuke comes back. If both those players come back, it's 58.6% of your cap on 6 players. It leaves you with 38 million to field another 16 players. All before Drouin/Georgiev/LOC are due raises. And just forget about 2028 when Makar breaks the MacKinnon cap in the same year we need a new 2C.

The only way any of this remotely makes sense is if Landekog LTIRetires and/or they find a 'get out of jail free' card with Nuke.

 

[henchman21]

I mean, it sucks, but we have to accept that the trade return is a secondary issue at this point. The primary issue is if you extend Rantanen, you're chances of competing drop significantly more than if you let him go and accept Drouin as his replacement. History shows it over and over. You're not going deep into the postseason if you can't afford proper depth.

If Rantanen gets 12 (why on earth would he accept that little) then the Avs have over 40 million locked in for their 4 highest paid players. Assuming the cap goes up to 92 million in 2025, thats 44.4% of their cap room for four players. That's before Landeskog and/or Nuke comes back. If both those players come back, it's 58.6% of your cap on 6 players. It leaves you with 38 million to field another 16 players. All before Drouin/Georgiev/LOC are due raises. And just forget about 2028 when Makar breaks the MacKinnon cap in the same year we need a new 2C.

The only way any of this remotely makes sense is if Landekog LTIRetires and/or they find a 'get out of jail free' card with Nuke.

It has been exceedingly rare that teams let go of their face of the franchises under 32/33 via trade. When they get 36/37/38, sure that happens and usually for those players to have a last crack at the Cup. In what is viewed as prime ages by most, it almost never happens.

If we are looking at the window, even the most optimistic would look at the age, contract and depth problem and concede that there is a maximum of 3 seasons left. How can you structure a Rantanen trade where he is a rental and get back pieces that not only help 25-26 and 26-27, but don't also torpedo this season?

 

[AslanRH]

Rants is more Forsberg/Foote than Stastny.

sure, the Avs seemed to do all right when they left too

 

[LOFIN]

I mean, it sucks, but we have to accept that the trade return is a secondary issue at this point. The primary issue is if you extend Rantanen, you're chances of competing drop significantly more than if you let him go and accept Drouin as his replacement. History shows it over and over, you're not going deep into the postseason if you can't afford proper depth.

If Rantanen gets 12 (why on earth would he accept that little) then the Avs have over 40 million locked in for their 4 highest paid players. Assuming the cap goes up to 92 million in 2025, thats 44.4% of their cap room for four players. That's before Landeskog and/or Nuke comes back. If both those players come back, it's 58.6% of your cap on 6 players. It leaves you with 38 million to field another 16 players. All before Drouin/Georgiev/LOC are due raises. And just forget about 2028 when Makar breaks the MacKinnon cap in the same year we need a new 2C.

The only way any of this remotely makes sense is if Landekog LTIRetires and/or they find a 'get out of jail free' card with Nuke.

If you really think this way, then might as well just try to make one last run this season and then just let him walk.

 

[Ararana]

How can you structure a Rantanen trade where he is a rental and get back pieces that not only help 25-26 and 26-27, but don't also torpedo this season?

Honestly? With zero control over the past and just looking at the problem today? I'd use Rantanen as an in-house rental this season, get one last decent shot at a cup with him, and then let him walk.

Extend Drouin as his replacement and try to get Nuke clean, because they're not getting away from that contract. Then you have 29/37/20 down the middle with 27/92/13/62 as your top four wingers, and all of Mikko's cap to sign depth.

Obviously I'd have done things differently leading up to this point so you're not letting Rantenen walk for nothing. But giving any winger 13 million when you already have the #2 center and #1 defenseman in the league is poor management IMO.

 

[John Mandalorian]

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see them trade Girard if Raymond does well. With the obvious bump in salary, Girard isn’t as prohibitive either. They’re probably hoping that Raymond can be the Drouin of the D group.

 

[Mighty Makar]

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see them trade Girard if Raymond does well. With the obvious bump in salary, Girard isn’t as prohibitive either. They’re probably hoping that Raymond can be the Drouin of the D group.

Raymond Bourque retired years ago.

 

[John Mandalorian]

Raymond Bourque retired years ago.

Isn’t his mother the only one whose allowed to call him Raymond?

 

[Mighty Makar]

Isn’t his mother the only one whose allowed to call him Raymond?

Perhaps!

 

[John Mandalorian]

Perhaps!

Why the exclamation point? No need to shout.

 

[Chiarelli]

If you really think this way, then might as well just try to make one last run this season and then just let him walk.

There's a legitimate case to be made for keeping Rants this season, going all in, and letting him walk next summer imo.

 

[Balthazar]

It's far from a given that the team would be worse without Rantanen (and his cap hit).

We're talking about a team with 2 top 5 players in the league here, this isn't the Hurricanes. We have the gamebreakers to win the cup but we don't have the depth and you can buy a shitload of good depth with 12M.

 

[Pokecheque]

It's far from a given that the team would be worse without Rantanen (and his cap hit).

We're talking about a team with 2 top 5 players in the league here, this isn't the Hurricanes. We have the gamebreakers to win the cup but we don't have the depth and you can buy a shitload of good depth with 12M.

Anyone who thinks the Avalanche would be a better team without their very best winger, a power forward who's scored 311 points over the past three seasons, is living in delusion.

Unless you have a magical two-way forward who's currently not rehabbing a knee or a coke habit, or some dynamic scoring forward who's somehow making their way to Colorado, the Avs would be taking a HUGE step back by getting rid of Rants.

The notion that cap space alone can just conjure up depth that will somehow match or surpass the loss of an elite scoring forward is just wishful thinking.

I'm frustrated by Mikko's rather wonky work ethic as much as the next guy but the hate is really reaching astronomical levels where people just aren't thinking rationally anymore.