Rumor: 2024-2025 Trade Rumors and Free Agency - Offseason Edition

[RoyIsALegend]

Get ready for a roster with about 7-9 guys on league minimum or ELC contracts.

It’ll come down to how much Bednar values winning in the regular season and consequently the massive minutes he puts our top guys through.

 

[the_fan]

Get ready for a roster with about 7-9 guys on league minimum or ELC contracts.

It’ll come down to how much Bednar values winning in the regular season and consequently the massive minutes he puts our top guys through.

At least we won the cup in 22

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Other than Drouin maybe re-signing, I don't expect any UFA signings. Just borderline NHL players like 4 depth forwards and 2 depth dman all at 800k and let them win out a roster spot, nothing that would really make a difference.

Yep most likely.

I'm expecting Johnson back for another year at league minimum, Cogs as well if he doesn't retire.


They might be able to find like $1.5M for one roster guy that isn't league minimum. Hopefully if they do, it's for the beat Dman they can get with that money.

 

[chet1926]

I mean I was #1 on the trade Girard bandwagon but that was before trading Byram. It'd be a tough blow to lose Girard and Byram.

Sure, which is exactly why I don't foresee a cap dump trade. Really the only guys would be Colton, G, or Manson. The 2 dmen we really shouldn't be getting rid of, and Colton is one of 3 NHL capable centers on the roster I don't see them trading him until earliest next off-season if Ritchie shows he can handle the center position at the NHL level.

You can't just trade away capable players that play premier positions like C for cap dump purposes.

 

[chet1926]

Get ready for a roster with about 7-9 guys on league minimum or ELC contracts.

It’ll come down to how much Bednar values winning in the regular season and consequently the massive minutes he puts our top guys through.

Yep. The roster is going to be pretty shit next year having 14M handcuffing us on players who aren't playing day 1 is not ideal and will lead to a less than ideal roster.

CMac has a really tough job this year, we'll see how he handles it.

 

[missionAvs]

Guys we're gonna have a shit ton of cap space when we trade Rants for Kotka.

 

[shadow1]

Other than Drouin maybe re-signing, I don't expect any UFA signings. Just borderline NHL players like 4 depth forwards and 2 depth dman all at 800k and let them win out a roster spot, nothing that would really make a difference.

2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
Bellemare ($1.8x2) Donskoi ($3.9x4) Nichushkin ($850Kx1)		Helm ($1.0x1) J. Johnson ($750Kx1) Murray ($2.0x1)	Rodrigues ($2.0x1)	Drouin ($825Kx1) Tatar ($1.5x1) Wood ($2.5x6)

That's pretty much been Colorado's free agency MO post-Roy/with CMac. Even in years with cap space, they usually opt for trades.

Arguably they've done better with the dirt cheap contracts. I'm really intrigued by some of the "rock bottom" players this off-season (like Barabonov). I also hope the Avalanche can find a Helm-esque fourth line center for cheap. Gambling on an unproven Olofsson last off-season was low-key horrible because it later necessitated trading a 3rd for Trenin, and plenty of 4C's (Steel, Sundqvist, etc.) signed dirt cheap 1yr deals.

 

[dahrougem2]

Yep. The roster is going to be pretty shit next year having 14M handcuffing us on players who aren't playing day 1 is not ideal and will lead to a less than ideal roster.

CMac has a really tough job this year, we'll see how he handles it.

I really don't think it is doom and gloom. Like I posted above, if the Avs incur a 2M cap hit to get rid of Nichushkin, can re-sign Mittelstadt and Drouin to IMO fair contracts, they will have some room for a bottom six forward and 3rd pair D while running a 22 man roster.

Drouin - MacKinnon - Rantanen
Landeskog - Mittelstadt - Lehkonen
Wood - Colton - LOC
Kovalenko - XXX - XXX

Toews - Makar
Girard - Manson
Behrens - XXX

Georgiev
Annunen

Wagner
775K Defensemen

Is it the deepest roster? Obviously not. But given the cap constraints on the Avs, the top heavy cap hits, and the lack of draft picks panning out it is still IMO a roster good enough to compete for 1st in the West. A couple of moves at the TDL to bring in depth forwards could easily push this team to cup contender status.

What CMac has to do is target players looking for a Stanley Cup run and willing to take cheap, below market contracts.

I identified Tyler Johnson, but there are also guys like Adam Henrique, Tyler Toffoli, Viktor Arvidsson, Patrick Kane, Zemgus Girgensons, Alexander Barabanov, Max Pacioretty, Jordan Martinook, Mattias Janmark.

Those are guys that IMO will not be getting big dollar, long term deals (maybe Kane is an exception). The Avs just need one. They can probably get away with running one of Ivan/Foudy/Pavel at 4C until the TDL to upgrade that position.

I am not saying the Avs are loaded, and a lot of the above hinges on Landeskog being healthy enough to play a top six role full time. If he's not, they'll have to go big game hunting at the TDL and likely put Gulyayev/2025 1st on the table.

 

[Balthazar]

Pagnotta has us linked to David Savard, Scott Laughton and Reilly Smith.

Summer Trade Watch 2024 — The Fourth Period

Summer Trade Watch List 2024: The top players believed to be available for trade this summer.

www.thefourthperiod.com

 

[The Abusement Park]

Pagnotta has us linked to David Savard, Scott Laughton and Reilly Smith.

Summer Trade Watch 2024 — The Fourth Period

Summer Trade Watch List 2024: The top players believed to be available for trade this summer.

www.thefourthperiod.com

Laughton would be a lot like Ferraro. A great add, especially with retention, but the cost to add would be quite prohibitive I think. Albeit not quite as high as Ferraro.

 

[henchman21]

Get ready for a roster with about 7-9 guys on league minimum or ELC contracts.

It’ll come down to how much Bednar values winning in the regular season and consequently the massive minutes he puts our top guys through.

I fully expect Bednar to overplay the top guys to try to win the West, then falling to 2nd in the Central down the stretch when the legs are going.

The Avs will get hype like they always do, but how they perform at the deadline and how much gas is in the tank will determine a lot.

I really don't think it is doom and gloom. Like I posted above, if the Avs incur a 2M cap hit to get rid of Nichushkin, can re-sign Mittelstadt and Drouin to IMO fair contracts, they will have some room for a bottom six forward and 3rd pair D while running a 22 man roster.

Drouin - MacKinnon - Rantanen
Landeskog - Mittelstadt - Lehkonen
Wood - Colton - LOC
Kovalenko - XXX - XXX

Toews - Makar
Girard - Manson
Behrens - XXX

Georgiev
Annunen

Wagner
775K Defensemen

Is it the deepest roster? Obviously not. But given the cap constraints on the Avs, the top heavy cap hits, and the lack of draft picks panning out it is still IMO a roster good enough to compete for 1st in the West. A couple of moves at the TDL to bring in depth forwards could easily push this team to cup contender status.

What CMac has to do is target players looking for a Stanley Cup run and willing to take cheap, below market contracts.

I identified Tyler Johnson, but there are also guys like Adam Henrique, Tyler Toffoli, Viktor Arvidsson, Patrick Kane, Zemgus Girgensons, Alexander Barabanov, Max Pacioretty, Jordan Martinook, Mattias Janmark.

Those are guys that IMO will not be getting big dollar, long term deals (maybe Kane is an exception). The Avs just need one. They can probably get away with running one of Ivan/Foudy/Pavel at 4C until the TDL to upgrade that position.

I am not saying the Avs are loaded, and a lot of the above hinges on Landeskog being healthy enough to play a top six role full time. If he's not, they'll have to go big game hunting at the TDL and likely put Gulyayev/2025 1st on the table.

25 1st is already gone.

 

[dahrougem2]

I fully expect Bednar to overplay the top guys to try to win the West, then falling to 2nd in the Central down the stretch when the legs are going.

The Avs will get hype like they always do, but how they perform at the deadline and how much gas is in the tank will determine a lot.


25 1st is already gone.

26 1st it is then lol

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Laughton @50% retention would be very similar to Ferraro at 50%. Both would be solid moves that get you good middle of lineup players at cap hits that we can make work.

If you can get either one done for the 2024 1st+ without having to move Ritchie, they should be trying to make that move. Ideally you keep Gulyayev as well but especially if you are getting Ferraro in the deal I'd probably move Guly in that deal ultimately.

 

[The Moops]

Dowd @50% would be killer

 

[Cypher]

2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
Bellemare ($1.8x2) Donskoi ($3.9x4) Nichushkin ($850Kx1)		Helm ($1.0x1) J. Johnson ($750Kx1) Murray ($2.0x1)	Rodrigues ($2.0x1)	Drouin ($825Kx1) Tatar ($1.5x1) Wood ($2.5x6)

That's pretty much been Colorado's free agency MO post-Roy/with CMac. Even in years with cap space, they usually opt for trades.

Arguably they've done better with the dirt cheap contracts. I'm really intrigued by some of the "rock bottom" players this off-season (like Barabonov). I also hope the Avalanche can find a Helm-esque fourth line center for cheap. Gambling on an unproven Olofsson last off-season was low-key horrible because it later necessitated trading a 3rd for Trenin, and plenty of 4C's (Steel, Sundqvist, etc.) signed dirt cheap 1yr deals.

The 4C UFA market is trash this year. Like, maybe Travis Boyd might come cheap since he's coming off pectoral surgery and only played 16 games., but other than that, nobody really stands out.

 

[The Merchant]

Pagnotta has us linked to David Savard, Scott Laughton and Reilly Smith.

Summer Trade Watch 2024 — The Fourth Period

Summer Trade Watch List 2024: The top players believed to be available for trade this summer.

www.thefourthperiod.com

Laughton would be a fantastic fit

 

[The Abusement Park]

Curious if moving Behrens in a theoretical Ferraro trade would be 1) enough 2) smart. He would basically be taking the last slot available for Behrens, but a higher end 2nd pair guy with his potential cap hit( 1.7mil) could be huge for the next two years.

 

[chet1926]

Not sure why people think the Avs are even a playoff team with the current situation. The first 2-3 months will be pretty rough navigating through Nuke and Landy. And if 29, 8 and 96 don't flat carry those months we are in for a fight.

There is a a reasonable chance that day 1, Landy, Lehk and Nuke are all not available via either injury or suspension. Throw in that Drouin is 50/50 at best to come back and it gets ugly fast.

We don't know the situation on Lehk but let's say he's not good until Nov. Landy I'd say at best is Nov/Dec and who knows what he can even offer play wise. Nuke is at best mid Nov, but most likely not coming back to our team. Drouin very well could go elsewhere on a contact we can't afford.

So for the first month and a half we would have something like:

Rants-MacK-?
?-Mitts-?
Wood-Colton-LOC
Kovalenko-?-?

Maybe 62 is good day 1 and the first line gets filled out. But the beginning of the season is potentially going to be rough. Obviously those ? Are going to get filled but the options aren't going to be great. Having 14M tied up on guys and that aren't going to play day 1 and are complete unknowns isn't ideal and doesn't leave boatloads of viable options.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Not sure why people think the Avs are even a playoff team with the current situation. The first 2-3 months will be pretty rough navigating through Nuke and Landy. And if 29, 8 and 96 don't flat carry those months we are in for a fight.

There is a a reasonable chance that day 1, Landy, Lehk and Nuke are all not available via either injury or suspension. Throw in that Drouin is 50/50 at best to come back and it gets ugly fast.

We don't know the situation on Lehk but let's say he's not good until Nov. Landy I'd say at best is Nov/Dec and who knows what he can even offer play wise. Nuke is at best mid Nov, but most likely not coming back to our team. Drouin very well could go elsewhere on a contact we can't afford.

So for the first month and a half we would have something like:

Rants-MacK-?
?-Mitts-?
Wood-Colton-LOC
Kovalenko-?-?

Maybe 62 is good day 1 and the first line gets filled out. But the beginning of the season is potentially going to be rough. Obviously those ? Are going to get filled but the options aren't going to be great. Having 14M tied up on guys and that aren't going to play day 1 and are complete unknowns isn't ideal and doesn't leave boatloads of viable options.

Another brilliant post....

You're literally just choosing the absolute worst case scenario of every possible scenario this summer. Extremely unlikely if not impossible to actually play out that way.


But, even if the literal worst case scenario did play out. The trio of Mack/Rants/Makar alone are elite players that would keep this team at ~.500 hockey for the first month or so. Long enough for Nuke and Lehky to both be back by the end of November and then that group would absolutely move up the standings and comfortably into the playoffs by the deadline.

 

[Hasbro]

Dowd @50% would be killer

Damn right!

 

[UncleRisto]

Dowd @50% would be killer

Can't spend assets on elite 4th liners anymore.

Deadline, maybe if we have any left.

 

[TruePowerSlave]

Not sure why people think the Avs are even a playoff team with the current situation. The first 2-3 months will be pretty rough navigating through Nuke and Landy. And if 29, 8 and 96 don't flat carry those months we are in for a fight.

You are severly underrating just how f***ing good our top players are. They will dominate games and carry the team as usual. Once age and regression sets in then we are toast.

 

[chet1926]

Another brilliant post....

You're literally just choosing the absolute worst case scenario of every possible scenario this summer. Extremely unlikely if not impossible to actually play out that way.


But, even if the literal worst case scenario did play out. The trio of Mack/Rants/Makar alone are elite players that would keep this team at ~.500 hockey for the first month or so. Long enough for Nuke and Lehky to both be back by the end of November and then that group would absolutely move up the standings and comfortably into the playoffs by the deadline.

Correct, but it is possible. Simply ignoring the facts of this summer and saying everything will work out perfectly is also naive.

It's probably even more unrealistic to say Lehk will be 100% day 1, as will Landy who will instantly be a 2nd liner, we'll come to a settlement on Nuke around 2M cap hit, which allows us to sign Drouin without trading anyone, Mitts will sign under market value giving us more cap to work with.

Reality is that neither scenario is likely, I fully understand that. Most likely Mitts signs around market value, maybe a Rants extension, Lehk probably is ok day 1, maybe we sign Drouin but we'll probably have to trade someone to make it happen. Landy probably won't play day 1, but hopefully it's Nov and we go from there. Nuke situation is tough don't have a clue what to expect there my guess termination with a cap hit around 2-3M. After that some small signings of players on cheap contracts to fill out the remaining holes.

It's be very much going to be a patchy roster with some cheap players filling the holes, but since we have 29, 8, and 96. We'll be ok, probably not a compete for the division type team, but good enough make the playoffs.

You are severly underrating just how f***ing good our top players are. They will dominate games and carry the team as usual. Once age and regression sets in then we are toast.

I understand it, and they are capable of flat carrying. Hell they pretty much have been for years. But asking for this scenario every freaking year is crazy. It wouldn't take much for it to go south fast.

 

[Balthazar]

Don't forget that this year Mack, Mikko and Makar were healthy all year + all playoffs. That's unlikely to happen again next year.

 

[henchman21]

If the Avs contend for the division title, it is likely because the top guys are getting run into the ground (which we know how that turns out). The ability to contend is going to be more hinged on what the deadline looks like. It wouldn't be real shocking to see the Avs as 3rd in the central or top wild card either.

I don't think it is doom and gloom, but the Avs have a rather tough path to contention too.