2024/2025 Statistical Projections [Team and Players]

[egd27]

The post I quoted never said forwards specifically. I’d easily have Rielly above him. And I bet he gets out paced by a couple other forwards this year. Maybe Domi and Knies.

That's why I did.

So a couple of "maybes" with no reasoning. Not a pretty picture if JT has indeed fallen off a cliff.

 

[RunItBackAgain]

That's why I did.

So a couple of "maybes" with no reasoning. Not a pretty picture if JT has indeed fallen off a cliff.

No it’s not a pretty picture at all. I’m not sure why anyone is optimistic frankly.

 

[nuck]

I think most of these numbers are understated, in some cases by quite a bit (like Tavares). Woll's numbers will also be far better. He will be at least .915.

JTs points were almost identical in the last 37 games to the first 37 during Willies hot streak, and he did it with a minute less TOI a game in the second half. He actually outscored Willie in March and April so not sure he was was being carried in the way some suggest. But I agree with those who say he probably won't hit a ppg again unless he gets a crazy new coach bump. But its a reach to expect under 60 unless he's off the pp. I figure 95 for Mitch and 90 for Willie.

I agree Woll is an easy .915 if healthy but thats a big if. Their regular season might hinge on what Stolarz can do with a larger sample of games which should be okay as long as Woll is there for the post season.

 

[conFABulator]

JTs points were almost identical in the last 37 games to the first 37 during Willies hot streak, and he did it with a minute less TOI a game. He actually outscored Willie in March and April so not sure he was was being carried in the way some suggest. But I agree with those who say he probably won't hit a ppg again unless he gets a crazy new coach bump. Its a reach to expect under 60 unless he's off the pp. I figure 95 for Mitch and 90 for Willie.

I agree Woll is an easy .915 if healthy but thats a big if. Their regular season might hinge on what Stolarz can do with a larger sample of games which should be okay as long as Woll is there for the post season.

The purpose of this exercise is to project how this team will do next year if everyone does what they did last year as far as pace. Woll may do better, we should hope so and this would only help us exceed the projections as a team, however do we think Stolarz stays at a .925 if he played more? He probably regresses a bit and the two goalies may average out similar to what these projections show.

The variables are how we configure and deploy the lineup. Tavares had such a drop because this configuration has him on the third line (less ice time) and playing fewer games (see the posts a live explaining how injuries were accounted for and projected in this model).

Here's the thing...this configuration with injuries and reduces minutes for some still has us PROJECTING (not predicting) to have an outstanding goal differential, one that would have led the league by 15 or 20 goals last year.

Do we really see us better than that? Are we really the best team in the league? I don't think so, but maybe. Who will have the big drop offs that will prevent this form happening?

 

[conFABulator]

No it’s not a pretty picture at all. I’m not sure why anyone is optimistic frankly.

I would say the projections in this model, based on last year's actual results are reason for optimism, no?

I think a better question is what are the specific reasons to be pessimistic?

 

[nuck]

The purpose of this exercise is to project how this team will do next year if everyone does what they did last year as far as pace. Woll may do better, we should hope so and this would only help us exceed the projections as a team, however do we think Stolarz stays at a .925 if he played more? He probably regresses a bit and the two goalies may average out similar to what these projections show.

The variables are how we configure and deploy the lineup. Tavares had such a drop because this configuration has him on the third line (less ice time) and playing fewer games (see the posts a live explaining how injuries were accounted for and projected in this model).

Here's the thing...this configuration with injuries and reduces minutes for some still has us PROJECTING (not predicting) to have an outstanding goal differential, one that would have led the league by 15 or 20 goals last year.

Do we really see us better than that? Are we really the best team in the league? I don't think so, but maybe. Who will have the big drop offs that will prevent this form happening?

I think the biggest variable could be the coach. There is bound to be a different usage strategy to Sheldon so it makes sense some may thrive more than others.

Also interested in how Willies game went flat in 2024 and what that means for this season. Could it be that he was burning energy at a rate that he could easily manage at 18:16 a night but he sort of ran out of gas playing almost 20:00 for the first time? That makes more sense than he stopped trying as hard after the new deal. His second half production this year was roughly equal to 2 years ago when he was playing only 18:00 a night. I am not saying he will have more 60pt half seasons but if he regressed because he just got depleted there are ways to work around that.

 

[conFABulator]

I think the biggest variable could be the coach. There is bound to be a different usage strategy to Sheldon so it makes sense some may thrive more than others.

Also interested in how Willies game went flat in 2024 and what that means for this season. Could it be that he was burning energy at a rate that he could easily manage at 18:16 a night but he sort of ran out of gas playing almost 20:00 for the first time? That makes more sense than he stopped trying as hard after the new deal. His second half production this year was roughly equal to 2 years ago when he was playing only 18:00 a night. I am not saying he will have more 60pt half seasons but if he regressed because he just got depleted there are ways to work around that.

Both are good variables to consider...

As for the coaching one, that is a huge variable and will have impacts we can't even begin to anticipate, hopefully positive.

The lineup I configured as the foundation for this model was based on what appears to be a preference to run a deeper and more balanced line-up as it looks like he did in St. Louis. So, yes I "demoted" JT to the third line, but I also increased the third line's usage because of his inclusion there. I really do think that Tavares can make a solid contribution as a 14-minute a night 3C. He will benefit from matchups and have more in the tank every night and come playoffs. He is 34 now.

As for Willy, that's interesting. We don't know for sure obviously but it could be that 18 minutes a night is the sweet spot or that he is building up to 20 minutes a night and last year was a learning opportunity.

This model has Matthew, Marner and Nylander as the top F in ice time and I don't think anyone would argue this. Their line mates get lots of ice time as a result of this, that's Knies, Domi, and Holmberg here.

I think a lot of people look at this and say this guy is too low or this one is too high in ice time, but those comments don't really mean much unless there is an actual modeled solution with it. How do we achieve depth and balance specifically?

We have four lines. There are roughly 48 ES minutes a night, six PP and six SH. How should the lines be configured and how should the ice time be allocated within three constraints?

 

[PROUD PAPA]

I could see Mo getting 60+ pts.
Marner should lead the team in points due to it being a contract year.
Knies 22g 34a 56pts
Willy will put up lower numbers.
Matthews fewer goals, more assists.
Team will make the playoffs 102-108 point range.
Goaltending should be average.
Tavares 26g 36a 62pts.
No rookies make an impact.
PP top 10.
PK mid pack.

 

[ACC1224]

I could see Mo getting 60+ pts.
Marner should lead the team in points due to it being a contract year.
Knies 22g 34a 56pts
Willy will put up lower numbers.
Matthews fewer goals, more assists.
Team will make the playoffs 102-108 point range.
Goaltending should be average.
Tavares 26g 36a 62pts.
No rookies make an impact.
PP top 10.
PK mid pack.

Marner always puts up lots of points. If anything the pressure of the contract may make him put up less. It’s been posted thousands of times how he can’t play under pressure.

 

[conFABulator]

Marner always puts up lots of points. If anything the pressure of the contract may make him put up less. It’s been posted thousands of times how he can’t play under pressure.

Yep. It's one of the reasons I like letting him play for a contract, maybe he can learn to play under pressure before the playoffs. If not, good thing we didn't commit to him too early.

 

[RunItBackAgain]

I would say the projections in this model, based on last year's actual results are reason for optimism, no?

I think a better question is what are the specific reasons to be pessimistic?

It’s the exact same team bro. Do you think Tanev, OEL, and Stolarz propel us from mediocre to dominant? Come on now. We’ve always looked great on paper.

 

[Evilhomer]

It’s the exact same team bro. Do you think Tanev, OEL, and Stolarz propel us from mediocre to dominant? Come on now. We’ve always looked great on paper.

If a good team improves its defense, goaltending and coaching, I would say that is a pretty good basis to conclude that it will improve on its prior performance.

 

[RunItBackAgain]

If a good team improves its defense, goaltending and coaching, I would say that is a pretty good basis to conclude that it will improve on its prior performance.

Pretty hard to say the coaching has improved without seeing a game played. Same with goaltending. Stolarz has nice numbers but so did Sammy prior to last season. I’m curious which goalie is going to play the other half of the season and how their numbers fare with an increased workload.

Again, you think Tanev, OEL, Stolarz are going to take us from mediocre to dominant? I don’t see it. 90% of the team is unchanged and they’ve proven beyond doubt that they cannot get it done.

 

[Evilhomer]

Pretty hard to say the coaching has improved without seeing a game played. Same with goaltending. Stolarz has nice numbers but so did Sammy prior to last season. I’m curious which goalie is going to play the other half of the season and how their numbers fare with an increased workload.

Again, you think Tanev, OEL, Stolarz are going to take us from mediocre to dominant? I don’t see it. 90% of the team is unchanged and they’ve proven beyond doubt that they cannot get it done.

I think Woll will play 50ish games and put up a .915 save percentage. That alone will make this team 10 points better than last season.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

This thread reminds me of the excitement I'd get when I saw The Forecaster in the magazine isle at the end of summer. That was the only mag I'd buy without exception year after year.

Shame they took it off print and went 100% digital

 

[conFABulator]

It’s the exact same team bro. Do you think Tanev, OEL, and Stolarz propel us from mediocre to dominant? Come on now. We’ve always looked great on paper.

Ummm, yes bro I do think it is possible. I think new coaches, captain, d-corps, goalie l, and hopefully better health could make a difference in a 7-game series we lost in OT, yes.

I actually have no idea how you can call this the same team. The coaching change alone will make this a new team.

Anyway, this post is about if the players do what they did last year, what might our regular season results be. It looks like we have a team that could win the division. Maybe Washington or NYI or Detroit make a better first round opponent for us.

 

[RunItBackAgain]

I think Woll will play 50ish games and put up a .915 save percentage. That alone will make this team 10 points better than last season.

That’s pretty optimistic since his only real NHL season he put up a .907. Years prior he was fed matchups against non playoff teams, check the logs. He has 36 NHL games to date and has never played over 40 in his entire life.

Ummm, yes bro I do think it is possible. I think new coaches, captain, d-corps, goalie l, and hopefully better health could make a difference in a 7-game series we lost in OT, yes.

I actually have no idea how you can call this the same team. The coaching change alone will make this a new team.

Anyway, this post is about if the players do what they did last year, what might our regular season results be. It looks like we have a team that could win the division. Maybe Washington or NYI or Detroit make a better first round opponent for us.

To each their own. I always cheer for the team but I won’t purposely bury my head in the sand for them anymore. Go Leafs Go

 

[conFABulator]

That’s pretty optimistic since his only real NHL season he put up a .907. Years prior he was fed matchups against non playoff teams, check the logs. He has 36 NHL games to date.


To each their own. I always cheer for the team but I won’t purposely bury my head in the sand for them anymore. Go Leafs Go

No one should bury their heads in the sand and glad to hear you always cheer for the team. Part of the fun for me is having hope going into every season and for the past five or six years we have had legitimate reason for hope. It will make the parade that much sweeter.

 

[RunItBackAgain]

No one should bury their heads in the sand and glad to hear you always cheer for the team. Part of the fun for me is having hope going into every season and for the past five or six years we have had legitimate reason for hope. It will make the parade that much sweeter.

I’m a see it to believe it type. I’ve seen too much to believe right now until I see more of the contrary.

 

[conFABulator]

I’m a see it to believe it type. I’ve seen too much to believe right now until I see more of the contrary.

Haven't you seen a team that is like two or three regular season wins away from from winning the division and getting a better first round match-up? Haven't you seen a team that has been knocked out by teams that have gone the SCF like five of the past seven years and they have those teams a run? Haven't you watched as other teams with long re rebuild trajectories won SC like Florida, Colorado, and Tampa?

This team is close and it's too easy for people who don't want to get hurt by them again to be all negative. Where is the fun in that. I am 52, I remember when I actually had reasons for being negative and unhappy with this team. I am enjoying this run and believe it could lead to that elusive cup. It's fun believing that...for me.

 

[notDatsyuk]

JT doesn't play with elite players, he plays with Robertson and McMann. That trio worked well last year and is probably a stronger third line that .last teams can ice.

As for the Nylander and games played, this has been explained already in this thread; injuries happen. I have is at 200 man games lost to injury and I spread those across all players fairly.evenly. The point here was to project how many goals this team would score next year, not to make accurate individual projections. I probably got every player wrong because one guy will miss thirty games to injury and not three guys missing ten each. Also, Nylander missed three out of seven playoff games to injury, something that could be recurring...just saying.

If you were trying to project total goals for a team, how would you handle injuries?

I was responding to someone complaining that JT's numbers were too low because he will be playing with 'elite' players, and just wondering who.

If I was going to predict total goals for a team, I don't think I'd break it down as much by player and situation, and if I did I'd probably break down injuries like goals and assists - assign more to the players who usually have more. Giving everyone the same is like giving Matty and Lilly 20 goals each.

 

[Evilhomer]

Haven't you seen a team that is like two or three regular season wins away from from winning the division and getting a better first round match-up? Haven't you seen a team that has been knocked out by teams that have gone the SCF like five of the past seven years and they have those teams a run? Haven't you watched as other teams with long re rebuild trajectories won SC like Florida, Colorado, and Tampa?

This team is close and it's too easy for people who don't want to get hurt by them again to be all negative. Where is the fun in that. I am 52, I remember when I actually had reasons for being negative and unhappy with this team. I am enjoying this run and believe it could lead to that elusive cup. It's fun believing that...for me.

Finally, someone older than me (even if only by 1 year, I'll take it).

People being negative about this team have no idea what the 1980's were like. You want a reason to be negative? We had an entire decade to be negative. It wasn't much fun (and the music sucked).

 

[conFABulator]

Finally, someone older than me (even if only by 1 year, I'll take it).

People being negative about this team have no idea what the 1980's were like. You want a reason to be negative? We had an entire decade to be negative. It wasn't much fun (and the music sucked).

It's the hyperbole that bothers me. This team has had disappointing playoff results for sure. I would have to think we all agree on that.

However, the fans that call the team bad or management inept, or an embarrassment are way off base.

This team is sixth in the NHL in wins the last five years, they have the longest active streak for playoff appearances, they have a Hart and Richard trophy winner, and they are projected to be good again this year.

This model I created takes the emotion out of it and simply projects based on past performance. Some peopl don't like this because they don't get to complain about things. It's annoying.

Also...lots of good music in th 80's

 

[conFABulator]

This topic has surfaced a few times in this post, but no one seems to have specific thoughts on it (but me).

How would you allocate ES time across four lines? Say there are approximately 48 ES minutes per game. How much of that (on average) do you give to each line?

 

[Racer88]

It's the hyperbole that bothers me. This team has had disappointing playoff results for sure. I would have to think we all agree on that.

However, the fans that call the team bad or management inept, or an embarrassment are way off base.

This team is sixth in the NHL in wins the last five years, they have the longest active streak for playoff appearances, they have a Hart and Richard trophy winner, and they are projected to be good again this year.

This model I created takes the emotion out of it and simply projects based on past performance. Some peopl don't like this because they don't get to complain about things. It's annoying.

Also...lots of good music in th 80's

Nobody disputes their regular season. I would be curious to hear why you think it is that they fold every year in the playoffs.