2024/2025 Statistical Projections [Team and Players]

[conFABulator]

Nobody disputes their regular season. I would be curious to hear why you think it is that they fold every year in the playoffs.

Well, I don't know that I would even with "they fold every year". They do lose and obviously that's not good and I think they need to make changes and get better in the playoffs.

Two years ago, they beat Tampa and then lost to a hot team and goalie that had just made a miraculous comeback against Boston and then went to the cup.

Last year, they took Boston to seven games and lost in OT. Folding would be going out in four or five. Boston finished ahead of them by the way and is a good and experienced team.

...in that series...our two best players were both hurt and never healthy at the same time and our goalie was hurt for G7. Our PP didn't show up. If anyone of these statements weren't true We win in th first round again..

Every year we lose to a team that wins the cup or goes to the cup final. It's a stacked division and we need to fight through it. What do I think would change this?

We need our $40M core to be better in the playoffs. We achieve this by not paying JT $11M a year anymore and letting Marner walk if he doesn't have a very strong playoff this year. Marner is a playoff problem for me.

We build a team and PP that is not so top heavy (two lines) and easy to game plan against in the playoffs. I think Knies, Domi, McMann and hopefully a couple of Cowan, Minten, Grebenkin, Robertson, and Holmberg give us the ingredients for an actual top nine and hopefully that translates to the PP as well.

We have the right kind of defence. A unit that includes Tanev, McCabe, Benoit, and hopefully Hakanpaa is a good step forward. Having OEL should help too. Reilly has been pretty alone back there for years.

Joe Woll. A big, reliable, young and athletic goalie with a good head on his shoulders is another thing we haven't had. I think Stolarz (and Murray) are the perfect supporting crew.

A better coach for the playoffs. Keefe spent time learning and then time out coaching himself and by the time last year rolled around it was too late. He should have been gone a hear earlier.

These are the things we need to do and I think we are doing most of them. I think our window is opens wide AFTER his season. The cap continues to rise, our young guys become NHLers, our core are in their prime, JT costs less or is gone...and Marner...he better not be extended for big bucks andong term unless he shows us something new and more this year.

Two things about the past...

One was that Dubas was fired at the wrong time and that made last off-season challenging for Treliving when he came in. Dubas should have been let go sooner and Tre should have had a proper off season to deal with the coach and the core four.

Covid, really hurt us. I know it impacted everyone but the flat cap hit us harder than most. (a) We were a team that outspent many other teams before Covid, but then the flat cap made everyone a cap team, and there were no longer budget teams, and (b) our plan with the core four was to surround them with talent and experience and the flat cap meant we could not do that. The cap would be well up over $100M if it didn't flatten. Our core was locked in, wouldn't this team have looked better with Hyman staying? With a top pairing D? A goalie of than Samsonov.

You asked, I answered. These are no excuses they are answers. Some are personnel, some or circumstance, and some are luck. I continue to think we are addressing the formula, that our window is still wide open, that our division is shifting in power, and that this might be the best Leafs team of the Matthews era.

You don't have to turn the lens too much to have everything go from blurry to focus. That's where we are now. Let's see what a new coach, new captain, new players and anew sense of urgency does for this group. I also REALLY like Marner playing all year for a contract.

 

[Racer88]

Well, I don't know that I would even with "they fold every year". They do lose and obviously that's not good and I think they need to make changes and get better in the playoffs.

Two years ago, they beat Tampa and then lost to a hot team and goalie that had just made a miraculous comeback against Boston and then went to the cup.

Last year, they took Boston to seven games and lost in OT. Folding would be going out in four or five. Boston finished ahead of them by the way and is a good and experienced team.

...in that series...our two best players were both hurt and never healthy at the same time and our goalie was hurt for G7. Our PP didn't show up. If anyone of these statements weren't true We win in th first round again..

Every year we lose to a team that wins the cup or goes to the cup final. It's a stacked division and we need to fight through it. What do I think would change this?

We need our $40M core to be better in the playoffs. We achieve this by not paying JT $11M a year anymore and letting Marner walk if he doesn't have a very strong playoff this year. Marner is a playoff problem for me.

We build a team and PP that is not so top heavy (two lines) and easy to game plan against in the playoffs. I think Knies, Domi, McMann and hopefully a couple of Cowan, Minten, Grebenkin, Robertson, and Holmberg give us the ingredients for an actual top nine and hopefully that translates to the PP as well.

We have the right kind of defence. A unit that includes Tanev, McCabe, Benoit, and hopefully Hakanpaa is a good step forward. Having OEL should help too. Reilly has been pretty alone back there for years.

Joe Woll. A big, reliable, young and athletic goalie with a good head on his shoulders is another thing we haven't had. I think Stolarz (and Murray) are the perfect supporting crew.

A better coach for the playoffs. Keefe spent time learning and then time out coaching himself and by the time last year rolled around it was too late. He should have been gone a hear earlier.

These are the things we need to do and I think we are doing most of them. I think our window is opens wide AFTER his season. The cap continues to rise, our young guys become NHLers, our core are in their prime, JT costs less or is gone...and Marner...he better not be extended for big bucks andong term unless he shows us something new and more this year.

Two things about the past...

One was that Dubas was fired at the wrong time and that made last off-season challenging for Treliving when he came in. Dubas should have been let go sooner and Tre should have had a proper off season to deal with the coach and the core four.

Covid, really hurt us. I know it impacted everyone but the flat cap hit us harder than most. (a) We were a team that outspent many other teams before Covid, but then the flat cap made everyone a cap team, and there were no longer budget teams, and (b) our plan with the core four was to surround them with talent and experience and the flat cap meant we could not do that. The cap would be well up over $100M if it didn't flatten. Our core was locked in, wouldn't this team have looked better with Hyman staying? With a top pairing D? A goalie of than Samsonov.

You asked, I answered. These are no excuses they are answers. Some are personnel, some or circumstance, and some are luck. I continue to think we are addressing the formula, that our window is still wide open, that our division is shifting in power, and that this might be the best Leafs team of the Matthews era.

You don't have to turn the lens too much to have everything go from blurry to focus. That's where we are now. Let's see what a new coach, new captain, new players and anew sense of urgency does for this group. I also REALLY like Marner playing all year for a contract.

I agree with some of the things in this post, however some of
them do sound like excuses. We don’t know if Woll is that reliable goalie that we hope he is, he seems hurt a lot. Yes Shanny waited to long to fire Dubas.
There are a lot of question marks for this coming year.
As far as a stacked division I thought the idea was that Shanny would build us a great team and if the are as great as you say we should have at lest shown improvement by now and we have not.
Shanny has ultimately been responsible by choosing and keeping the incompetent Dubas.
Here we are in year 7 of this core 4 and they are costing us. An even higher percentage of the cap .
How many years of the same result are you prepared to keep believing in the Shanaplan

 

[conFABulator]

I agree with some of the things in this post, however some of
them do sound like excuses. We don’t know if Woll is that reliable goalie that we hope he is, he seems hurt a lot. Yes Shanny waited to long to fire Dubas.
There are a lot of question marks for this coming year.
As far as a stacked division I thought the idea was that Shanny would build us a great team and if the are as great as you say we should have at lest shown improvement by now and we have not.
Shanny has ultimately been responsible by choosing and keeping the incompetent Dubas.
Here we are in year 7 of this core 4 and they are costing us. An even higher percentage of the cap .
How many years of the same result are you prepared to keep believing in the Shanaplan

Shanny has one year left also as far as I am concerned.

Why hold the Leafs to a different standard? What teams did a better job of going from bottom to cup quickly? It takes time. Teams that stay the course and follow a plan might become Tampa, Colorado or Florida. Those that are impatient and changing lanes all the time might be Buffalo or Columbus...those two bottomed out when we did by the way.

Again, it the hyperbole that bothers me (not necessarily from you), this team is not a disaster, terrible or even a failure yet. They have disappointed for sure but the story is not over yet. Matthews is 26. Remember, Stevie Y? People were calling him a choker too. Then he became Captain Clutch.

Reason for optimism?

New coach(es)
New captain
Tanev and OEL (hopefully Hakanpaa)
New PP coach and system
34 and 88 coming off career years
Marner playing for a contract
Tavares soon being in an appropriate role with appropriate contract.
44 having Tanev by his side
Woll, Stolarz and even Murray bringing stability
Supporting cast that includes Knies, Domi McMann, McCabe, and Benoit
Prospects pushing Kampf, Jarnkrok, and Liljegren for spots
Cap space while others around us are dismantling (Tampa, Florida, Boston)

...it's hard to argue that this team improved over the of-season. We lost R1 in G7 OT after fought back to get there. A healthy Matthews and Woll and we might win that one. We are close and not tending pat. I actually don't know what more atre could have done to change things up this off-season, without a NMC I really do think he would have moved Marner.

 

[Racer88]

Shanny has one year left also as far as I am concerned.

Why hold the Leafs to a different standard? What teams did a better job of going from bottom to cup quickly? It takes time. Teams that stay the course and follow a plan might become Tampa, Colorado or Florida. Those that are impatient and changing lanes all the time might be Buffalo or Columbus...those two bottomed out when we did by the way.

Again, it the hyperbole that bothers me (not necessarily from you), this team is not a disaster, terrible or even a failure yet. They have disappointed for sure but the story is not over yet. Matthews is 26. Remember, Stevie Y? People were calling him a choker too. Then he became Captain Clutch.

Reason for optimism?

New coach(es)
New captain
Tanev and OEL (hopefully Hakanpaa)
New PP coach and system
34 and 88 coming off career years
Marner playing for a contract
Tavares soon being in an appropriate role with appropriate contract.
44 having Tanev by his side
Woll, Stolarz and even Murray bringing stability
Supporting cast that includes Knies, Domi McMann, McCabe, and Benoit
Prospects pushing Kampf, Jarnkrok, and Liljegren for spots
Cap space while others around us are dismantling (Tampa, Florida, Boston)

...it's hard to argue that this team improved over the of-season. We lost R1 in G7 OT after fought back to get there. A healthy Matthews and Woll and we might win that one. We are close and not tending pat. I actually don't know what more atre could have done to change things up this off-season, without a NMC I really do think he would have moved Marner.

We have some common positions but some opposed. One thing I think we share is the belief that it is going to be very interesting to see the season unfold. My optimism is at an all time low but would wholeheartedly embrace success.

 

[conFABulator]

We have some common positions but some opposed. One thing I think we share is the belief that it is going to be very interesting to see the season unfold. My optimism is at an all time low but would wholeheartedly embrace success.

I feel the two biggest variables for this upcoming season are

(1) The impact of Berube

(2) How Marner performs without a contract, a new coach, maybe no letter on his chest, perhaps without Matthews as his linemates.

If both of those break our way, then I think we could see different and better results. I am obviously not sure that both will, but I do like that Treliving seems to have intentionally set us up for this.

 

[Americanadian]

What's the flaw in the model?

I love the work done here. The flaw would be factoring in age curves and using data beyond last season. Season over season point totals historically are not linear for players.

The model I made, using EvolvingHockey's GAR/WAR has them at 101 points without significant injuries. I don't have anything for G/A/P, just overall team performance.

The thought process is insignificant injuries are balanced out by insignificant injuries for the remainder of the league.

 

[conFABulator]

I love the work done here. The flaw would be factoring in age curves and using data beyond last season. Season over season point totals historically are not linear for players.

View attachment 904273

The model I made, using EvolvingHockey's GAR/WAR has them at 101 points without significant injuries. I don't have anything for G/A/P, just overall team performance.

The thought process is insignificant injuries are balanced out by insignificant injuries for the remainder of the league.

This is a great response and great feedback. I agree with and learned from your comments and model.

Starting with mine, I knew when I was doing it that it was a bit basic. I think the basic approach served my purpose which was "if everyone on this team just did what they did last year (and we incorporate minutes played, PP, etc) how good will we be?".

I think I figured that for every aging curve or single season sample size flaw, the flaws would balance out as they would reduce some projections and increase others. For every five less points Tavares gets, a Knies or McMann will get five more, if Stolarz comes back to earth save percentage wise, Woll may increase by a few percentage points.

I wanted to show my work and did, but didn't really explain in a way that people could understand how I managed injury games lost and how that impacted every players projections. It was a good way to get an aggregate number but people couldn't get past the individuals adjusted for games lost approach.

Even with top contributors missing more games than they probably will, my model had the Leafs at and 80-something positive goal differential and that would have them at much more than 101 points and that felt a bit high for me. Is this one of the best teams in the NHL. I guess I kind of believe they might be.

As for yours. I understand the concept of WAR but not the calculus. I don't know what the inputs or equations are, I imagine it places a premium in possession, scoring chance differential, and traditional scoring stats. Your model must access some projection methodology that has an idea how many points Knies will get this year in the absence of a large body of work to trend from. My simple model has Knies getting zero PP goals next year even though I have him some decent PP minutes. That's because he didn't score any last year, so with last year's zero as a multiplier we cannot forecast results above zero.

How does 101 points sit with you? Doesn't that feel more like the floor?

I will learn more about WAR and take a look at that site. Thanks again.

 

[Americanadian]

I think I figured that for every aging curve or single season sample size flaw, the flaws would balance out as they would reduce some projections and increase others. For every five less points Tavares gets, a Knies or McMann will get five more, if Stolarz comes back to earth save percentage wise, Woll may increase by a few percentage points.

This is probably pretty accurate from an overall team point of view, just not from a individual G/A/P point of view.

As for yours. I understand the concept of WAR but not the calculus. I don't know what the inputs or equations are, I imagine it places a premium in possession, scoring chance differential, and traditional scoring stats.

There are far too many variables that go into the EvolvingHockey GAR model for me to type out but I found this flow chart in their model explanation that kind of gives an idea of what they're doing:

How does 101 points sit with you? Doesn't that feel more like the floor?

I will learn more about WAR and take a look at that site. Thanks again.

Two things can be true - I have them at 101 points but I also have them as the 3rd best team in the league. The flaw in my model is it gives too many points to bottom feeders. The lowest point total I'm projecting is SJ at 70 points. 4 teams had less than 70 points last year and SJ had 47. That is the flaw with calculating a model the way I am based on aggregate WAR values of the roster and not running a simulation of every game on the schedule and aggregating expected points for each game.