Speculation: 2024-2025 General Lightning Discussion: Preseason Edition

[Outl4w]

Quick question....have you actually seen the list of 30 goal scoring Centres from last year? Like fine, I'll give you 60 points as a benchmark...but 30 goals? I think you need to put your rage boner away.

Cirelli isnt a top 30 scoring center.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

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There are 32 teams.... and 28 Centres, some of which on that list played equal parts wing... like Verhaeghe, Stamkos (still listed as C), Toffoli (?), Coleman (?), GUENTZEL (WHAT?). But yeah, you expect Cirelli to be among the top 20~ish goal scoring Centres in the league. You realize how unreasonable that expectation or ask is right?

EDIT: LOL Cirelli to score as many goals as McDavid.

 

[Outl4w]

There are 32 teams.... and 28 Centres, some of which on that list played equal parts wing... like Verhaeghe, Stamkos (still listed as C), Toffoli (?), Coleman (?), GUENTZEL (WHAT?). But yeah, you expect Cirelli to be among the top 20~ish goal scoring Centres in the league. You realize how unreasonable that expectation or ask is right?

EDIT: LOL Cirelli to score as many goals as McDavid.

If he can't be a 60 point producer with a plus minus in the twenties he isn't worth the cap hit long term.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

If he can't be a 60 point producer with a plus minus in the twenties he isn't worth the cap hit long term.

Like I said, I'll give you 60 points. Its the 30 goals I have an issue with. Also a +/- in the 20's? LOL What? Seriously? Man....you really need to get off the drink. That would put him in the Top 20 in forwards in the league. f***ing hell... who the f*** do you think Cirelli is? Jesus?

 

[Outl4w]

Like I said, I'll give you 60 points. Its the 30 goals I have an issue with. Also a +/- in the 20's? LOL What? Seriously? Man....you really need to get off the drink. That would put him in the Top 20 in forwards in the league. f***ing hell... who the f*** do you think Cirelli is? Jesus?

If he is an elite defensive center as branded he shouldn't be carrying a +/- as -1 for his career playoffs and -6 for the playoffs last season. He clearly isn't great a stopping goals or generating offense when it counts to justify a top6 center caphit for center. Also his faceoff percentage is less than 50% for his career and last year. Offensively he really isn't getting any better since his record or third year. His peak seems to be around 45 points which is no where near a good top6 center. If JBB wasn't wasting cap space on scrubs like Sheary and Atkinson and use the space for a top6 winger who can score we would be in better shape. Ideally Cirelli is a great 3rd line center like Draper was.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

If he is an elite defensive center as branded he shouldn't be carrying a +/- as -1 for his career playoffs and -6 for the playoffs last season. He clearly isn't great a stopping goals or generating offense when it counts to justify a top6 center caphit for center. Also his faceoff percentage is less than 50% for his career and last year. Offensively he really isn't getting any better since his record or third year. His peak seems to be around 45 points which is no where near a good top6 center.
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I don't think you know how plus minus works....You are saying he's damn near even in his career not generating offense. That defines a solidly defensive player who stops pucks from going in.

 

[Outl4w]

I don't think you know how plus minus works....You are saying he's damn near even in his career not generating offense. That defines a solidly defensive player who stops pucks from going in.

Of course i do. i have been playing competitive hockey for over thirty years from youth travel, college club, adult travel, and now A/B leagues in my late 30s. He has been scored on more times than not for the playoffs. Cirelli is the 48th highest paid center, isn't producing top 6 scoring number, and isn't living up to it to his big contract.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Of course i do. i have been playing competitive hockey for over thirty years from youth travel, college club, adult travel, and now A/B leagues in my late 30s.

Cool beans. But then how the f*** do you look at a player whos played over 400 games. Who (your numbers were wrong) was at worst 0 during the regular season in his whole career, and say he doesn't shut down players? f***ing hell Kucherov last season was a +8 with 144 points.

 

[Outl4w]

Cool beans. But then how the f*** do you look at a player whos played over 400 games. Who (your numbers were wrong) was at worst 0 during the regular season in his whole career, and say he doesn't shut down players? f***ing hell Kucherov last season was a +8 with 144 points.

He has never produced at an elite or top 6 center level. He is a good third liner and below average second liner. You aren't going to win cups paying him top 6 money and 2 million on sheary.

 

[Outl4w]

Cool beans. But then how the f*** do you look at a player whos played over 400 games. Who (your numbers were wrong) was at worst 0 during the regular season in his whole career, and say he doesn't shut down players? f***ing hell Kucherov last season was a +8 with 144 points.

So kucherov carries a team on his back for 2.5 million dollars per season and Cirelli hold back the second line. He hasn't progressed offensely since his second or third season really. He is the type of guy you RFa and give a bridge deal, but don't waste almost 7 million of cap space on.

 

[JTBF81]

More complaining about how if only Cirelli had 10-15 more points, Tampa would have all their problems solved....The season hasn't even started and it's hilarious how it seems half to two thirds of this board already have their designated fall guy if Tampa doesn't win the Cup lol. He's a solid 2nd line center that yes, could produce more offensively. If only he wasn't 37 and no longer had any time left to improve in that area. Oh, he's only just turned 27 you say and is now taking up only just over 7% of the team's cap (and that % is only going lower over the next several years), nah same difference it would seem. He seems to mesh well with Hagel, and Guentzel could also be paired with him at times. I think 50-55 points is very reasonable, and 20-25 goals. He had a rough series against Florida, but so did many of the team's higher priced forwards. He also had what, 2 or 3 goals disallowed on questionable calls. Not to mention, the year before, he was ppg vs Toronto and arguably their best F in that series. He's a solid 2C and not easily replaced, which, in addition to the positional needs situation and trade value, is likely the main reason why Serg is gone and Cirelli remains the 2C. For the moment, he is slightly overpaid, but not by some egregious number that is costing the team some high value targets or assets.

 

[Outl4w]

More complaining about how if only Cirelli had 10-15 more points, Tampa would have all their problems solved....The season hasn't even started and it's hilarious how it seems half to two thirds of this board already have their designated fall guy if Tampa doesn't win the Cup lol. He's a solid 2nd line center that yes, could produce more offensively. If only he wasn't 37 and no longer had any time left to improve in that area. Oh, he's only just turned 27 you say and is now taking up only just over 7% of the team's cap (and that % is only going lower over the next several years), nah same difference it would seem. He seems to mesh well with Hagel, and Guentzel could also be paired with him at times. I think 50-55 points is very reasonable, and 20-25 goals. He had a rough series against Florida, but so did many of the team's higher priced forwards. He also had what, 2 or 3 goals disallowed on questionable calls. Not to mention, the year before, he was ppg vs Toronto and arguably their best F in that series. He's a solid 2C and not easily replaced, which, in addition to the positional needs situation and trade value, is likely the main reason why Serg is gone and Cirelli remains the 2C. For the moment, he is slightly overpaid, but not by some egregious number that is costing the team some high value targets or assets.

Hagel is a top 6 forward and produces. Cirelli is a 3rd liner being paid top6 money and forced to play top 6 center. Compare kris Draper in his prime age same as Cirelli when it was harder to score and the game was more physical. Draper was regarded as years as the best third line center in the league. No one in their right mind ever considered Draper a second line center,but he produced 40 points when it was like 50 to 60 points now days. They new he had a limited offensive ceiling but was great defensively. Also Draper was good at faceoffs.
Cirelli. Why are we wasting this much money o na 2nd line center longterm who hasn't actually progressed offensively since his second or third season. Look at Hagel for example how much he improved his game from his third season. Cirelli has not taken a step forward offensiely to become a second line center. You can put lipstick on a pig, but it is still a pig.

Draper

Hagel

2003-2004 scoring leaders

2023-2024 scoring leaders

 

[JTBF81]

Hagel is a top 6 forward and produces. Cirelli is a 3rd liner being paid top6 money and forced to play top 6 center. Compare kris Draper in his prime age same as Cirelli when it was harder to score and the game was more physical. Draper was regarded as years as the best third line center in the league. No one in their right mind ever considered Draper a second line center,but he produced 40 points when it was like 60 points now days. They new he had a limited offensive ceiling but was great defensively. Also Draper was good at faceoffs.
Cirelli. Why are we wasting this much money o na 2nd line center longterm who hasn't actually progressed offensively since his second or third season. Look at Hagel for example how much he improved his game from his third season. Cirelli has not taken a step forward offensiely to become a second line center. You can put lipstick on a pig, but it is still a pig.
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Draper
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Hagel
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If only there was more to the game than scoring....Cirelli also slightly improved this season from the last offensively. Again, he doesn't have to show some monumental points improvement to justify his important role. He is streaky no doubt, but he's more than a 3rd line center. If all one wants to look at are his goal and assist totals, they'll see what they want and believe what they want. Luckily, the management and coaching staff realize there's much more to his game than just that, and ao he remains a valued member of the top 6 and the main core for now. He's exactly the kind of player that Cooper and JBB want, one that is sound defensively, able to still add offense, take the toughest matchups, and be able to contribute on special teams. For 7% of the cap, he's not any kind of problem as to why the team doesn't have some big name RW in the top 6, nor is he close to the main reason they didn't 3 peat or get past rd 1 the last two seasons.

 

[Outl4w]

If only there was more to the game than scoring....Cirelli also slightly improved this season from the last offensively. Again, he doesn't have to show some monumental points improvement to justify his important role. He is streaky no doubt, but he's more than a 3rd line center. If all one wants to look at are his goal and assist totals, they'll see what they want and believe what they want. Luckily, the management and coaching staff realize there's much more to his game than just that, and ao he remains a valued member of the top 6 and the main core for now. He's exactly the kind of player that Cooper and JBB want, one that is sound defensively, able to still add offense, take the toughest matchups, and be able to contribute on special teams. For 7% of the cap, he's not any kind of problem as to why the team doesn't have some big name RW in the top 6, nor is he close to the main reason they didn't 3 peat or get past rd 1 the last two seasons.

You say he is more than a third line center,but he doesn't produce or have the offensive skill of a second line center. He is good at two-way hockey, but is more of a grinder than a producer. He is not good in the faceoff dots and is consistnetly below 50% . He is in his prime and should be producing more points and winning more draws if he is an actual top 6 center. As I gave for exampel Draper produced similar numbers when it was harder to score and even had a better +/- during his prime years. HE was considered the best third line center in the league and everyone in Detroit knew he wasn't a second line center because he didn't have the high end offensive skillset to match his hockey IQ just like Cirelli.

 

[JTBF81]

You say he is more than a third line center,but he doesn't produce or have the offensive skill of a second line center.

And again, his offensive production is far from the only important facet of his game. He may never be a regular 60 point player, and I don't care tbh. He'll likely reach some seasons 50-55 points and others 45-50, with maybe a 60 point season now and then if he does take a bigger step. As long as he continues to contain some of the game's biggest names while playing the toughest minutes, I'm good with his offensive output in this range (and more importantly it would seem, so are the people that actually matter in making these calls). He's a key part of the core and as some of us on here correctly assessed, wasn't getting moved this past offseason (as it was clear Serg and Jeannot were the two most likely candidates in addition, unfortunately, to the still there Sheary).

 

[Outl4w]

And again, his offensive production is far from the only important facet of his game. He may never be a regular 60 point player, and I don't care tbh. He'll likely reach some seasons 50-55 points and others 45-50, with maybe a 60 point season now and then if he does take a bigger step. As long as he continues to contain some of the game's biggest names while playing the toughest minutes, I'm good with his offensive output in this range (and more importantly it would seem, so are the people that actually matter in making these calls). He's a key part of the core and as some of us on here correctly assessed, wasn't getting moved this past offseason (as it was clear Serg and Jeannot were the two most likely candidates in addition, unfortunately, to the still there Sheary).

He is not a good top6 center by any metric. He is a good third line center and below average second line center. Yes he plays great defense, and produces like a solid third liner. He is 159th in scoring last year and Nick Paul produced more points. So do we call nick paul a good second liner too? Paul produces more and cost half as much. Ironically Paul has outscored Cirelli for two straight years, but is worse defensively. Do we say Nick Paul is a top 6 forward based on his scoring in spite of his defensive being below average? This is the same case but reversed that is made for Cirelli.

Paul

Cirelli

 

[JTBF81]

He is not a good top6 center by any metric. He is a good third line center and below average second line center. Yes he plays great defense, and produces like a solid third liner. He is 159th in scoring last year and Nick Paul produced more points. So do we call nick paul a good second liner too? Paul produces more and cost half as much. Ironically Paul has outscored Cirelli for two straight years, but is worse defensively. Do we say Nick Paul is a top 6 forward based on his scoring in spite of his defensive being below average? This is the same case but reversed that is made for Cirelli.
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Paul
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Cirelli
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Cool, Paul scores a bit more and is on a decent contract. He also gets far easier matchups and is still worse defensively. Having a better overall team defense is a high priority, and Cirelli is a big part of that. He's not going anywhere and is a 2nd liner for Tampa. It's going to be a long season again I guess for you and others if all you're already doing is blaming Cirelli for any woes the team may have.

 

[Outl4w]

Cool, Paul scores a bit more and is on a decent contract. He also gets far easier matchups and is still worse defensively. Having a better overall team defense is a high priority, and Cirelli is a big part of that. He's not going anywhere and is a 2nd liner for Tampa. It's going to be a long season again I guess for you and others if all you're already doing is blaming Cirelli for any woes the team may have.

First of all I don't blame Cirelli for his contract and lack of top6 production. I blame JBB for giving Sergachev, Cirelli, Vasi, and Cernak big contracts without taking a step forward. This is the same gm overpaying with draft picks and salary for talent that doesn't produce like Sheary,Jeannot,Atkinson,Dehann, Vladdy,and Myers during this same time. The only contract given that a player has taken a step forward is Hagel. Cirelli is a third line center on a cup winning team and a second line center on a fringe playoff team. Back to back cups as a third line center and back to back early playoff exits as a second line center. Cirelli is a guy we should not have given 8 years at almost seven million dollars. He would have been a great deat around 5 million or less for 4 to 5 years. I would love to see Cirelli evole into a top 6 center producing 60 plus points with a plus 40 with his elite defensive skill set, but nothing is showing that will even happen. Maybe we get lucky and he becomes Chandler Stevenson out of no where training with Kucherov.

 

[LightningStrikes]

IMO all three extensions of Serg, Cernak and Cirelli were like half a million AAV each (give or take) too much for my liking. But what do I know and what’s done is done.

Cirelli is clearly part of the plan otherwise they would’ve moved him when his NTC wasn’t active yet.

 

[DFC]

If he can't be a 60 point producer with a plus minus in the twenties he isn't worth the cap hit long term.

I think that's overstating it. You're talking about a Ryan O'Reilly type, who is worth a lot more than 6

 

[JTBF81]

First of all I don't blame Cirelli for his contract and lack of top6 production. I blame JBB for giving Sergachev, Cirelli, Vasi, and Cernak big contracts without taking a step forward. This is the same gm overpaying with draft picks and salary for talent that doesn't produce like Sheary,Jeannot,Atkinson,Dehann, Vladdy,and Myers during this same time. The only contract given that a player has taken a step forward is Hagel. Cirelli is a third line center on a cup winning team and a second line center on a fringe playoff team. Back to back cups as a third line center and back to back early playoff exits as a second line center. Cirelli is a guy we should not have given 8 years at almost seven million dollathyrs. He would have been a great deat around 5 million or less for 4 to 5 years.

He recouped and got out of the Jeannot deal, moved the easily most bloated contract on the team in Serg for a quality return, Sheary us getting a pass for last year by him because of ghe injuries. He was basically averaging 20 goals and 40 points a year the 3 seasons before last, so it seems JBB is willing to give him another chance to bounce back to those numbers. Atkinson could easily outperform his minimal contract, and he and the others recently are also easy able to be buried/waived if they didnt/don't perform. In your opinion Corelli shouldn't have gotten that contract, but as with mine, your opinion doesn't matter as to what good NHL managers think. Cirelli is also not making close to 7 as you continue to erroneously state. Cirelli was also the 2C on those Cup teams, or at least a hybrid 2C as his line and the Gourde line were both really 2nd line quality. In the end, he's not being moved it seems and is pretty set as the 2C. He wasn't the reason they lost in the 1st round either of the last two years either, as you are clearly insinuating.

 

[Outl4w]

He recouped and got out of the Jeannot deal, moved the easily most bloated contract on the team in Serg for a quality return, Sheary us getting a pass for last year by him because of ghe injuries. He was basically averaging 20 goals and 40 points a year the 3 seasons before last, so it seems JBB is willing to give him another chance to bounce back to those numbers. Atkinson could easily outperform his minimal contract, and he and the others recently are also easy able to be buried/waived if they didnt/don't perform. In your opinion Corelli shouldn't have gotten that contract, but as with mine, your opinion doesn't matter as to what good NHL managers think. Cirelli is also not making close to 7 as you continue to erroneously state. Cirelli was also the 2C on those Cup teams, or at least a hybrid 2C as his line and the Gourde line were both really 2nd line quality. In the end, he's not being moved it seems and is pretty set as the 2C. He wasn't the reason they lost in the 1st round either of the last two years either, as you are clearly insinuating.

HE makes 6.25 million dollar caphit which is near 7 millon, but closer to 6. It is further away from 5 millon where he should be getting then it to 7 million. He also has a salary of 8,125,000 million in contract this year. So if you split 6.25 7 millioncaphit and 8.125 million salary he is making in the ballpark estimate of 7 million .

 

[JTBF81]

HE makes 6.25 million dollar caphit which is near 7 millon, but closer to 6. It is further away from 5 millon where he should be getting then it to 7 million. He also has a salary of 8,125,000 million in contract this year. So if you split 6.25 7 millioncaphit and 8.125 million salary he is making in the ballpark estimate of 7 million .

No one cares what his actual salary is this year, as his cap hit remains 6.25, or 7.1% of the team's cap allotment. He's worth more than 5 and would've easily rejected that pitiful offer. I had him between 5.5 and 6 on a long term deal, so he's realistically 500k or so overpaid relative of course to when the contract was signed and the slowly rising cap. The cap is significantly rising again, and so his contract looks better and better in that regard with each passing season. Tampa btw isn't getting your supposed "30 goal" 2C for anything close to the solid contract they have Cirelli on for the next 6 years. Try 7.5+ for a player like that, if they even become available in this rising cap environment. He's more than capable as a 2C for Tampa, and given the team's overall cap situation, fits in well. There's no point discussing it further, as there's no agreement to be had and no point continuing with the same arguments. He remains a valued piece of the team moving ahead, which is what I believed would be the end result of any summer moves. He's slightly overpaid but with much more all around attributes to his game than just goal scoring. He'll also no longer have one of the worst (last year anyway) 5v5 players on the team on his wing, so we'll find out how that may change some numbers.

 

[Stammertime91]

IMO all three extensions of Serg, Cernak and Cirelli were like half a million AAV each (give or take) too much for my liking. But what do I know and what’s done is done.

Cirelli is clearly part of the plan otherwise they would’ve moved him when his NTC wasn’t active yet.

I'd really like to see Cernak get back into the groove of things with McDonagh back. Also, healthy too...

 

[Hockeyville USA]

I'd really like to see Cernak get back into the groove of things with McDonagh back. Also, healthy too...

Cernak looked pretty horrible to end the 2023-24 season. I'm really hoping he's healthy and gets back in a groove. 2021 Cernak was fun & special.