Brian39
Registered User
- Apr 24, 2014
- 7,707
- 14,637
One thing that makes him so appealing to me even at his $11.6M number is that even as an overpay for the player, we would still be able to build a center group that provides damn good value against the cap.
Thomas is damn good value at $8.125M AAV for 6 years beyond this one. Combined, they would make $19.725M against the cap for 6 more seasons. Both guys would be just 26 years old entering year 1 of that 6 year timeline.
Dvorsky's ELC will slide if he plays fewer than 10 NHL games this year, which is likely (especially if we were to acquire EP during the season). But either way, he won't have arbitration eligibility and I'm pretty confident that we could settle on a fair 2 year bridge post-ELC whenever we have to deal with it. We'd have him on an ELC for 2 or 3 of that 6 year window and then a bridge for another 2-3 years of it.
Barring another league shutdown, the cap is going to be $100M+ by 2026/27 when it gets re-linked to HRR.
For the sake of this discussion, let's say EP were traded here and assume that EP doesn't return to his 95+ point form. Instead, he settles into a 1A/1B split with Thomas where EP can be reliably penciled in for a 70-80 points pace while remaining good enough defensively to take a good chunk of the defensive pressure off Thomas. Maybe he pops off for 85+ in one or two of the 7 seasons, but the norm is that 70-80 point pace. I'd consider him the '1B' to Thomas as the 1A in this scenario. That would not be worth $11.6M, even once the cap gets to $100M+. However, EP taking that role here would ease a hell of a lot of the weight that is currently on Thomas' shoulders and I think gives him a great chance to take that final step into the 90+ point guy I believe he is.
While EP wouldn't be 'worth' his $11.6M, you would have a damn good center duo for $19.725M against the cap.
Having those two as the 1-2 center punch would allow Dvorsky to ease into the NHL as a sheltered 3C. As he grows, you could slide him onto the wing in the top 6 for spells and give him PP time to boost his minutes. I have absolutely zero issue with young centers playing minutes on the wing. It wouldn't be difficult to get him 17+ minutes a night if he earns it. Let's say his bridge comes in at $7.275M AAV (starting in 2027/28 or 2028/29) against a cap that's $110M+. That's $27M on a damn good center trio, which would be less than 25% of your cap on the backbone of your team. And if Dvorsky busts, then thank God we didn't put all our chips on him to fill the 2C role.
I see pretty reasonable paths where EP is 'just' a 1B level center, but Thomas-EP-Dvorsky would give us a top 5-10 center situation in the NHL for half a decade while taking up 25% or less of the cap each of those years. And then there is also the potential upside that a change of scenery does EP well and he becomes the 1A with Thomas as the 1B. In that scenario, he would absolutely be worth his $11.6M AAV for the large majority of his time here and suddenly we have a no-doubt top 5 center group in the league for less than 25% of the cap.
My hesitancy around an EP trade is the acquisition cost and not the contract. While the $11.6M is a big number that he may never be 'worth' in a vacuum, I think that we are pretty well positioned to still get damn good value at the position if we were to take it on.
Edit: As I have said in the past, I wouldn't do Kyrou + Dvorsky. I'm happy to talk about Kyrou packaged with other assets, but Dvorsky is simply not on the table in a deal where Kyrou is the centerpiece. If that kills a deal then so be it. But I think Kyrou + Dvorsky is a much better package than what Buffalo got for Eichel and I don't think that Vancouver is in a substantially stronger bargaining position than Buffalo was.
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