2024-2025 Blues Trade Proposals Thread.

[Brian39]

Are the Blues in the financial position to spend 95M without making the playoffs these past 3 years? And probably 4 after next year.

I don't think any of us know how eager ownership will be to keep spending that kind of money, but it is worth noting that the NHL payroll has been $90M+ the last couple seasons. We structured a lot of deals to pay guys above their AAV for the last few years. This is the 3rd year of Krug making $8M+. Faulk made $7.9M real dollars in the 3 of the first 4 years of his deal. Parayko has been making $7.25M-$8M for the last 3 years. Schenn has been making $8M+ in 4 of the last 5 years. Leddy's deal was front loaded and Saad made above his AAV last season. Binner has made $7.5M real dollars the last couple years.

I don't remember the exact dollar amounts, but I believe that the Blues actual payroll was over $10M more than their cap payroll last season. So soending $90M hasn't been impossible with current ownership.

Our projected cap hit (including everyone) for 2025/26 is currently $89.3M but the salary on those guys is $92M. So a bit higher, but less than it has been in the past few years. And I think there is a good chance that a decent chunk of Krug's salary will be paid by insurance. But then in 2026/27 our projected cap hit is $60M while the salary is only $52M. In 2027/28 the projected cap commitments are $37.25M while the real dollars owed is $32M.

If they are concerned about an ability to spend to a rising cap, they have done a good job structuring our existing contracts to pay less money than the cap hit to make an internal cash budget possible while still being competitive with a rising cap.

 

[Brian39]

I second this, truly worry that a skyrocketing cap will negatively affect small and mid market teams like the Blues. We have been a cap team throughout the tenure of this ownership group but can they continue that? We needed playoff money in the past to turn a profit is that still true? Moving forward will we need to be a playoff team just to break even? What level does the cap have to get to before we are in trouble?

If the NHL goes the way of MLB with the big teams spending 200 million and the mid market teams spending half that, I will be less thrilled with hockey as I doubt a small cap team can compete. I know there is a lot of parity in the league right now but I don’t think any non cap team has ever been a contender or actually won the cup in the salary cap era? Correct me if I am wrong.

The other big thing is if the Blues have to charge Tronto or Vancouver prices for tickets….I don’t look forward to that and question if the St. Louis market can support those price points now or in the future.

Worth noting that the NHL CBA largely prevents this in a couple ways. Most importantly, the NHL is a hard cap league while the MLB has a luxury tax. NHL teams simply can't exceed the 'cap' the way MLB teams can.

Second, the cap floor is 85% of the midpoint and the cap ceiling is 115% of the midpoint. If the cap is $100M, then the floor is $70M. Now, tanking teams often get their payroll well below the floor by taking on LTIR guys and/or guys whos salaries are well below their cap hit, but there just aren't enough of those contracts for there to be tons of teams doing it.

I think we will see fewer cap teams than the last few years under the flat cap, but the disparity won't be anything like the MLB.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I second this, truly worry that a skyrocketing cap will negatively affect small and mid market teams like the Blues. We have been a cap team throughout the tenure of this ownership group but can they continue that? We needed playoff money in the past to turn a profit is that still true? Moving forward will we need to be a playoff team just to break even? What level does the cap have to get to before we are in trouble?

If the NHL goes the way of MLB with the big teams spending 200 million and the mid market teams spending half that, I will be less thrilled with hockey as I doubt a small cap team can compete. I know there is a lot of parity in the league right now but I don’t think any non cap team has ever been a contender or actually won the cup in the salary cap era? Correct me if I am wrong.

The other big thing is if the Blues have to charge Tronto or Vancouver prices for tickets….I don’t look forward to that and question if the St. Louis market can support those price points now or in the future.

Remember, the cap is calculated based on revenue. The Blues should be enjoying their share of rising revenues, enough to spend to the cap (given the commitment of this ownership group).

A team may choose not to spend, but I think the Blues are not likely to get squeezed. Being willing to pay Saad to play in the AHL is not the move a team that is counting pennys would make.

 

[MissouriMook]

Another piece of the equation, and I am not sure of the figures, but the Salary/HRR ratio has been operating at under the 50% CBA provision for the last couple of years, as a result of losses sustained by owners during the COVID restricted seasons. I think the plan is to get back on track with that relationship as soon as next season, but while ownership may have sustained COVID related losses (insurable or not) during prior seasons, they have been enjoying a bit of a windfall during more recent seasons.