2024-2025 Blues Trade Proposals Thread.

[Brian39]

Are the Blues in the financial position to spend 95M without making the playoffs these past 3 years? And probably 4 after next year.

I don't think any of us know how eager ownership will be to keep spending that kind of money, but it is worth noting that the NHL payroll has been $90M+ the last couple seasons. We structured a lot of deals to pay guys above their AAV for the last few years. This is the 3rd year of Krug making $8M+. Faulk made $7.9M real dollars in the 3 of the first 4 years of his deal. Parayko has been making $7.25M-$8M for the last 3 years. Schenn has been making $8M+ in 4 of the last 5 years. Leddy's deal was front loaded and Saad made above his AAV last season. Binner has made $7.5M real dollars the last couple years.

I don't remember the exact dollar amounts, but I believe that the Blues actual payroll was over $10M more than their cap payroll last season. So soending $90M hasn't been impossible with current ownership.

Our projected cap hit (including everyone) for 2025/26 is currently $89.3M but the salary on those guys is $92M. So a bit higher, but less than it has been in the past few years. And I think there is a good chance that a decent chunk of Krug's salary will be paid by insurance. But then in 2026/27 our projected cap hit is $60M while the salary is only $52M. In 2027/28 the projected cap commitments are $37.25M while the real dollars owed is $32M.

If they are concerned about an ability to spend to a rising cap, they have done a good job structuring our existing contracts to pay less money than the cap hit to make an internal cash budget possible while still being competitive with a rising cap.

 

[Brian39]

I second this, truly worry that a skyrocketing cap will negatively affect small and mid market teams like the Blues. We have been a cap team throughout the tenure of this ownership group but can they continue that? We needed playoff money in the past to turn a profit is that still true? Moving forward will we need to be a playoff team just to break even? What level does the cap have to get to before we are in trouble?

If the NHL goes the way of MLB with the big teams spending 200 million and the mid market teams spending half that, I will be less thrilled with hockey as I doubt a small cap team can compete. I know there is a lot of parity in the league right now but I don’t think any non cap team has ever been a contender or actually won the cup in the salary cap era? Correct me if I am wrong.

The other big thing is if the Blues have to charge Tronto or Vancouver prices for tickets….I don’t look forward to that and question if the St. Louis market can support those price points now or in the future.

Worth noting that the NHL CBA largely prevents this in a couple ways. Most importantly, the NHL is a hard cap league while the MLB has a luxury tax. NHL teams simply can't exceed the 'cap' the way MLB teams can.

Second, the cap floor is 85% of the midpoint and the cap ceiling is 115% of the midpoint. If the cap is $100M, then the floor is $70M. Now, tanking teams often get their payroll well below the floor by taking on LTIR guys and/or guys whos salaries are well below their cap hit, but there just aren't enough of those contracts for there to be tons of teams doing it.

I think we will see fewer cap teams than the last few years under the flat cap, but the disparity won't be anything like the MLB.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I second this, truly worry that a skyrocketing cap will negatively affect small and mid market teams like the Blues. We have been a cap team throughout the tenure of this ownership group but can they continue that? We needed playoff money in the past to turn a profit is that still true? Moving forward will we need to be a playoff team just to break even? What level does the cap have to get to before we are in trouble?

If the NHL goes the way of MLB with the big teams spending 200 million and the mid market teams spending half that, I will be less thrilled with hockey as I doubt a small cap team can compete. I know there is a lot of parity in the league right now but I don’t think any non cap team has ever been a contender or actually won the cup in the salary cap era? Correct me if I am wrong.

The other big thing is if the Blues have to charge Tronto or Vancouver prices for tickets….I don’t look forward to that and question if the St. Louis market can support those price points now or in the future.

Remember, the cap is calculated based on revenue. The Blues should be enjoying their share of rising revenues, enough to spend to the cap (given the commitment of this ownership group).

A team may choose not to spend, but I think the Blues are not likely to get squeezed. Being willing to pay Saad to play in the AHL is not the move a team that is counting pennys would make.

 

[MissouriMook]

Another piece of the equation, and I am not sure of the figures, but the Salary/HRR ratio has been operating at under the 50% CBA provision for the last couple of years, as a result of losses sustained by owners during the COVID restricted seasons. I think the plan is to get back on track with that relationship as soon as next season, but while ownership may have sustained COVID related losses (insurable or not) during prior seasons, they have been enjoying a bit of a windfall during more recent seasons.

 

[Celtic Note]

Noting to add, just wanted to say I am enjoying this financial assessment of the Blues everyone is contributing to.

 

[Mike Liut]

I don't think any of us know how eager ownership will be to keep spending that kind of money, but it is worth noting that the NHL payroll has been $90M+ the last couple seasons. We structured a lot of deals to pay guys above their AAV for the last few years. This is the 3rd year of Krug making $8M+. Faulk made $7.9M real dollars in the 3 of the first 4 years of his deal. Parayko has been making $7.25M-$8M for the last 3 years. Schenn has been making $8M+ in 4 of the last 5 years. Leddy's deal was front loaded and Saad made above his AAV last season. Binner has made $7.5M real dollars the last couple years.

I don't remember the exact dollar amounts, but I believe that the Blues actual payroll was over $10M more than their cap payroll last season. So soending $90M hasn't been impossible with current ownership.

Our projected cap hit (including everyone) for 2025/26 is currently $89.3M but the salary on those guys is $92M. So a bit higher, but less than it has been in the past few years. And I think there is a good chance that a decent chunk of Krug's salary will be paid by insurance. But then in 2026/27 our projected cap hit is $60M while the salary is only $52M. In 2027/28 the projected cap commitments are $37.25M while the real dollars owed is $32M.

If they are concerned about an ability to spend to a rising cap, they have done a good job structuring our existing contracts to pay less money than the cap hit to make an internal cash budget possible while still being competitive with a rising cap.

Brian, I just want to say that I appreciate your knowledge and input on this forum.

 

[shpongle falls]

If there was ever a grouping together of the wisest most knowledgeable minds of Hockey’s Future Blues forum posters, like a Jedi Council of posters, Brian would without a doubt be on the Council lol.

 

[bleedblue1223]

With Saad off the books, it definitely provides options. Free agents are what they are, most will still be contracts that you end up regretting later. I do wonder if we can use that space in trades, tough part is we are limited on picks and I don't want to purely target guys with negative value like we have recently.

I'd be pretty curious what a guy like Kotkaniemi would cost. Someone that isn't old, so in theory should provide at least their current value on their current contract, that's that performs a little under their cap, but not significantly, and someone that is on a team that has reasons to move the contract. I'm sure others fit that description, but he makes sense since Carolina will likely want more cap for Rantanen or maybe even additional moves.

 

[AyeBah]

Projected Cap next 3 years: $95mil, $104 mil, $114 mil.
Good time for a lot of our bad contracts to come off the books as well and an influx of ELC players coming in. We will have the space to be big spenders via FA or trade

 

[Majorityof1]

We will have the space to be big spenders via FA or trade

Yipee. With Krug, Faulk, and Saad coming off the books we can go out and get more guys just like Krug, Faulk and Saad!!!!!

Seriously though, we need to be smart about who we grab and not sign middling near 30s players to unmovable not huge but significant deals. We didn't sign the big $9m contract on an aging player, but handicapped ourselves even more with multiple unmovable $6.5m deals.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Stephenson has 25 points in his last 29 games, so he might be recovering, but that's an example of why getting space to spend big on free agents can be a pretty bad idea. Bennett feels like he could be that guy this summer to get a contract too big for what he'll actually provide during that contract.

 

[AyeBah]

Yipee. With Krug, Faulk, and Saad coming off the books we can go out and get more guys just like Krug, Faulk and Saad!!!!!

Seriously though, we need to be smart about who we grab and not sign middling near 30s players to unmovable not huge but significant deals. We didn't sign the big $9m contract on an aging player, but handicapped ourselves even more with multiple unmovable $6.5m deals.

Thats why i would prefer trades to UFA signings unless its a star player like Marner or Rantanen

 

[Brian39]

Brian, I just want to say that I appreciate your knowledge and input on this forum.

I think this forum is hands down the best place to talk Blues hockey online. We all have our flaws and fair share of childish bickering like any place on the internet, but there is a really great group of knowledgeable posters here (yourself included). I always enjoy my lighter work days when I can spend time on here talking/thinking about hockey while I drudge through the stuff in my job that is easy and only requires a small amount of my attention.

 

[TheOrganist]

With Saad off the books, it definitely provides options. Free agents are what they are, most will still be contracts that you end up regretting later. I do wonder if we can use that space in trades, tough part is we are limited on picks and I don't want to purely target guys with negative value like we have recently.

I'd be pretty curious what a guy like Kotkaniemi would cost. Someone that isn't old, so in theory should provide at least their current value on their current contract, that's that performs a little under their cap, but not significantly, and someone that is on a team that has reasons to move the contract. I'm sure others fit that description, but he makes sense since Carolina will likely want more cap for Rantanen or maybe even additional moves.

The Carolina beat guy was on NHL Net Radio w/ Scott Laughlin yesterday and he was saying without Drury they were pretty thin up the middle and they expect to add a center at the deadline. I actually thought Faksa could be a decent target for them.

 

[Brian39]

Projected Cap next 3 years: $95mil, $104 mil, $114 mil.
Good time for a lot of our bad contracts to come off the books as well and an influx of ELC players coming in. We will have the space to be big spenders via FA or trade

This deserves more attention/clarification. Friedman is reporting that these numbers were released by the NHL and NHLPA. Seravelli is reporting that this is an agreement between the two parties and not simply projections.





Whether these numbers are set in stone or are only firm projections, it is crystal clear that the major cap growth we all expected is happening. It would be shocking for the NHL to suddenly pull back and try to get more than 50% of HRR in the current CBA negotiations after issuing a release like this.

I've been decently in favor of making a push for Pettersson, but this release pushes me further in that direction. Based on these numbers, his $11.6M will be just 10.2% of the cap in year 4 of his 8 year deal, which is equivalent to a $9M AAV against today's cap. That's currently Matt Barzal money.

His AAV is currently on overpay and will be for a couple years, but we don't have raises to worry about in the short term and it will essentially be 'high end 2C' money by the time we (hopefully) have raises to start worrying about. Assuming we keep Dvorsky below 10 NHL games this year, he won't be due his 2nd contract until year 5 of Petey's contract when the cap will (presumably) hit $115M+. By that point, Thomas and Petey would have 3 and 4 years remaining on their deals and would combine for just 17% of the cap. At his floor, I view Petey as capable of providing the impact Schenn provided for the Cup team. And his ceiling is clearly drastically higher than that. ROR/Schenn was 15.9% of the cap in 2018/19. I'm happy to give Thomas/Petey a slightly higher percentage of the team cap through their mid-late 20s.

Getting these numbers announced drives my perceived 'risk' of Petey's contract down by a noticeable margin.

 

[Spektre]

This deserves more attention/clarification. Friedman is reporting that these numbers were released by the NHL and NHLPA. Seravelli is reporting that this is an agreement between the two parties and not simply projections.





Whether these numbers are set in stone or are only firm projections, it is crystal clear that the major cap growth we all expected is happening. It would be shocking for the NHL to suddenly pull back and try to get more than 50% of HRR in the current CBA negotiations after issuing a release like this.

I've been decently in favor of making a push for Pettersson, but this release pushes me further in that direction. Based on these numbers, his $11.6M will be just 10.2% of the cap in year 4 of his 8 year deal, which is equivalent to a $9M AAV against today's cap. That's currently Matt Barzal money.

His AAV is currently on overpay and will be for a couple years, but we don't have raises to worry about in the short term and it will essentially be 'high end 2C' money by the time we (hopefully) have raises to start worrying about. Assuming we keep Dvorsky below 10 NHL games this year, he won't be due his 2nd contract until year 5 of Petey's contract when the cap will (presumably) hit $115M+. By that point, Thomas and Petey would have 3 and 4 years remaining on their deals and would combine for just 17% of the cap. At his floor, I view Petey as capable of providing the impact Schenn provided for the Cup team. And his ceiling is clearly drastically higher than that. ROR/Schenn was 15.9% of the cap in 2018/19. I'm happy to give Thomas/Petey a slightly higher percentage of the team cap through their mid-late 20s.

Getting these numbers announced drives my perceived 'risk' of Petey's contract down by a noticeable margin.

I think JT Miller is the odd ball out of the Vancouver fiasco.

 

[PeoriaBlues309]

This deserves more attention/clarification. Friedman is reporting that these numbers were released by the NHL and NHLPA. Seravelli is reporting that this is an agreement between the two parties and not simply projections.





Whether these numbers are set in stone or are only firm projections, it is crystal clear that the major cap growth we all expected is happening. It would be shocking for the NHL to suddenly pull back and try to get more than 50% of HRR in the current CBA negotiations after issuing a release like this.

I've been decently in favor of making a push for Pettersson, but this release pushes me further in that direction. Based on these numbers, his $11.6M will be just 10.2% of the cap in year 4 of his 8 year deal, which is equivalent to a $9M AAV against today's cap. That's currently Matt Barzal money.

His AAV is currently on overpay and will be for a couple years, but we don't have raises to worry about in the short term and it will essentially be 'high end 2C' money by the time we (hopefully) have raises to start worrying about. Assuming we keep Dvorsky below 10 NHL games this year, he won't be due his 2nd contract until year 5 of Petey's contract when the cap will (presumably) hit $115M+. By that point, Thomas and Petey would have 3 and 4 years remaining on their deals and would combine for just 17% of the cap. At his floor, I view Petey as capable of providing the impact Schenn provided for the Cup team. And his ceiling is clearly drastically higher than that. ROR/Schenn was 15.9% of the cap in 2018/19. I'm happy to give Thomas/Petey a slightly higher percentage of the team cap through their mid-late 20s.

Getting these numbers announced drives my perceived 'risk' of Petey's contract down by a noticeable margin.

My immediate overreaction to this is that we need to trade Kyrou+ for Petey, move off some dead weight contracts this summer, and then sign one of Marner/Rantanen in UFA



(Also the cap space listed for next season does not include Krug being LTIRetired, so add another $6.5 mil to that)

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I still don't see why everyone here thinks we can just force Kyrou as the main part of the Trade for EP when the constant reports out of the Vancouver's Camp is they want a Center and/or defenseman.

This isn't NHL 25. You cant just force trade the players you want gone to get the players you want.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I still don't see why everyone here thinks we can just force Kyrou as the main part of the Trade for EP when the constant reports out of the Vancouver's Camp is they want a Center and/or defenseman.

This isn't NHL 25. You cant just force trade the players you want gone to get the players you want.

In theory, you could probably figure out a deal involved Kyrou, Pettersson, Dvorsky, and Lekkerimaki.

 

[Xerloris]

If there was ever a grouping together of the wisest most knowledgeable minds of Hockey’s Future Blues forum posters, like a Jedi Council of posters, Brian would without a doubt be on the Council lol.

Normally I would agree with you but using coming in anything but first in Norris voting as an argument for a player being top end talent is hilariously bad.

My immediate overreaction to this is that we need to trade Kyrou+ for Petey, move off some dead weight contracts this summer, and then sign one of Marner/Rantanen in UFA

we could do all 3

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I still don't see why everyone here thinks we can just force Kyrou as the main part of the Trade for EP when the constant reports out of the Vancouver's Camp is they want a Center and/or defenseman.

This isn't NHL 25. You cant just force trade the players you want gone to get the players you want.

If someone was offering Canucks a center on the level of Kyrou the deal would have been done by now.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

If someone was offering Canucks a center on the level of Kyrou the deal would have been done by now.

Sounds more like they don't want to trade EP and are trying to move forward with Miller being moved instead.

 

[Drubilly]

I still don't see why everyone here thinks we can just force Kyrou as the main part of the Trade for EP when the constant reports out of the Vancouver's Camp is they want a Center and/or defenseman.

This isn't NHL 25. You cant just force trade the players you want gone to get the players you want.

Why do you think they’re showcasing Texier? He’s the center the Canucks NEED. duuuuhhhhh

 

[bleedblue1223]

They are kind of screwed either way. Miller won't have near the value they will want as a return because of the length of his contract and the perception that he is a cancer.