2024-2025 Blues Multi-Purpose Thread.
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StlBigFly
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- Mar 29, 2012
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Blues have had a good season per the numbers.
If somebody is like “oh wow the jets are so good their defense is tight” you can feel good knowing that we’re basically a rounding error away from them in team defensive results.
We’re a top third of the league 5v5 team. We just need a little more offense.
Hurry up Snuggerud.
Moneypuck under teams (with default 5v5 selected) let’s you compare a ton of different stats. Here’s where we’re extreme:
Dead last in rebound shots for. Interesting that Toronto is very close to us at the bottom. Perhaps Chief’s fingerprint, but I’d guess both us and toronto take more wrist shots than normal, less slappers, so maybe it’s just the personnel.
We’re also 4th to last in rebound goals against.
Those are the only two I see that are extreme.
We’re average or above average in most defensive categories and average in most offensive categories resulting in us being “better” than about 2/3 of the teams.
Their model does perceive us to be a net recipient of luck so far. Our goal differential results are higher than what their model expects and our pdo is above 101.
If somebody is like “oh wow the jets are so good their defense is tight” you can feel good knowing that we’re basically a rounding error away from them in team defensive results.
We’re a top third of the league 5v5 team. We just need a little more offense.
Hurry up Snuggerud.
Moneypuck under teams (with default 5v5 selected) let’s you compare a ton of different stats. Here’s where we’re extreme:
Dead last in rebound shots for. Interesting that Toronto is very close to us at the bottom. Perhaps Chief’s fingerprint, but I’d guess both us and toronto take more wrist shots than normal, less slappers, so maybe it’s just the personnel.
We’re also 4th to last in rebound goals against.
Those are the only two I see that are extreme.
We’re average or above average in most defensive categories and average in most offensive categories resulting in us being “better” than about 2/3 of the teams.
Their model does perceive us to be a net recipient of luck so far. Our goal differential results are higher than what their model expects and our pdo is above 101.
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BlueMed
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And why should anyone care? I don't mean to be edgy, but he's not an expert in the game or anything. He's a journalist who throws random equations together in his basement...
bleedblue1223
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Bolduc has 9 points, 6 of them goals, over his last 11 games. While I'd agree that he's absolutely earned a top 6 role with his recent play, his offense combined with Sunny's and Joseph's defensive play, is a big reason for our improved team success. We are at a point where we have a pretty solid top 9 for a bottom playoff team. Instead of the 3rd line being an offensive black hole, they now actually produce, while playing great defense. Bolduc has bigger and better things in front of him, especially once we have more talent and our 3rd line has talent to match his, and Sunny/Joseph slot down to the 4th, but right now they are playing great hockey.
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Reality Czech
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I'll agree Bolduc is better than Joseph overall but when you talk about a ppg difference of .15 or .11 you're talking about one extra point over a period of roughly 7-9 games. It's not really that big of a difference. I have no doubt that the reason Monty isn't putting him on the first line has a lot more to do with the matchups they're getting rather than his ppg. Besides, coaches don't generally mess with lines when the team is playing as well as we've been lately. Neighbours is a much better all around player than Bolduc at this stage, but if Bolduc keeps improving and finds some consistency then I'm sure he'll get his shot at some point.
I’m not trying to hype Bolduc. Acquiring a .44ppg pace, while only playing 12 minutes a game, and being a +15 as a rookie, with scrubs for line mates is pretty impressive.
I’m ready to see Bolduc Dvorsky Snuggerud as the 3rd line.
bleedblue1223
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And here's another way to look at it. With all the young players we are going to have coming up, there's a couple routes you can take. You can throw a kid line together, shelter them, and hope for the best, or you can spread them out with the vets to shelter them. Since Dvorsky and Snuggerud were always going to be more for next season, this season was going to be key for Holloway and Neighbors to an extent, but really Bolduc to develop into a quality enough NHL player, where you don't have to worry as much with their development if another young guy is on their line. I think all 3 have done pretty well in that aspect. Holloway is a legitimate top forward on this team, Neighbours definitely has some defensive issues and maybe doesn't have that high of an offensive ceiling, but I'd feel comfortable if there was a rookie with him, and Bolduc has developed enough where you can see he's on a path of being a player.
I see our top 9 as being able to have 3 pairs of vets with Thomas, Buchnevich, Kyrou, Holloway, Schenn, and Neighbours, and then we can sprinkle in Bolduc, Dvorsky, and Snuggerud. I could still see them going a kid line route, and Sunny plays up at times for the defensive side of things, but Monty has options.
In a glass half full approach, I'm thrilled with Holloway, satisfied with Neighbours, and very optimistic with Bolduc.
I see our top 9 as being able to have 3 pairs of vets with Thomas, Buchnevich, Kyrou, Holloway, Schenn, and Neighbours, and then we can sprinkle in Bolduc, Dvorsky, and Snuggerud. I could still see them going a kid line route, and Sunny plays up at times for the defensive side of things, but Monty has options.
In a glass half full approach, I'm thrilled with Holloway, satisfied with Neighbours, and very optimistic with Bolduc.
Brian39
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I'm extremely content keeping Bolduc in his current role to see how long he can continue scoring in that role. The team is playing its best hockey of the year and every line is clicking. I very much don't want to break up 2 lines just to reward Bolduc. I have absolutely no concern about him stagnating by staying in his current role and right now winning games is more important to the team than seeing how he responds to an increased degree of difficulty.
It is worth noting that the coaching staff has recognized and rewarded him and the 3rd line. Bolduc has played 13:06 a night in the 11 game sample you listed. That's a minute more than the 12:10 he was getting in the previous 44 games. He's had 10 nights where he has gotten 14+ minutes. 5 of those games came in the 11 game stretch you listed.
BlueMed
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I would agree. A lot of fans seem to think that this team is stuck in the middle, when we're really waiting on Snuggerud and Dvorsky to get here.
Dallas had the deepest forward group in the Western Conference last year, and their top 9 collectively combined for 531 points, accounting for Sam Steel's production rather than Stankoven's late season arrival.
Last year's Blues top 9 combined for 414 points. This year's top 9 is projected to combine for 392 points, largely due to injuries to Thomas and Sundqvist and number of healthy scratches for Bolduc and Joseph. Conservatively speaking, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect the following point totals next season, assuming full health.
Thomas 80 points
Kyrou 70 points
Buchnevich 65 points
Holloway 65 points
Schenn 45 points
Neighbours 45 points
Bolduc 45 points
Dvorksy 40 points
Snuggerud 40 points
That's a total of 495 points and should be a safe bet for at least a wild card spot, provided that there's not a significant decline in defense or goaltending compared to this year. The year after it might be even more when Dvorksy, Bolduc, Neighbours, and Snuggerud get more acclimated. This seems to be Army's vision.
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StlBigFly
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Decided to play around on money puck
Just hunting through various things.
Decided to look at d pairs above 400 minutes.
Didn’t expect anything severe. Thought I’d find some clumps of blues in the middle. Did not expect to see our previously used shutdown pairing with cavernous expected goals ratio, especially considering Parayko has been so much more active offensively and converting. These dudes were holding down the fort almost every time it needed to be held down, but Maybe we leaned too hard on Parayko Suter. It gave everybody else opportunity, so that’s nice.
Just hunting through various things.
Decided to look at d pairs above 400 minutes.
Didn’t expect anything severe. Thought I’d find some clumps of blues in the middle. Did not expect to see our previously used shutdown pairing with cavernous expected goals ratio, especially considering Parayko has been so much more active offensively and converting. These dudes were holding down the fort almost every time it needed to be held down, but Maybe we leaned too hard on Parayko Suter. It gave everybody else opportunity, so that’s nice.
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Stupendous Yappi
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This is interesting analysis. Thanks d like to see a version that accounts better for inevitable injuries from every team and expressed production at the top 9 positions including the injury subs. Those numbers may say more about playoff projections.
bleedblue1223
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