2024-2025 Blues Multi-Purpose Thread.

[Stelmacki]

I can’t get over how f***ing stupid the Blues’ march schedule is.

 

[StlBigFly]

Blues have had a good season per the numbers.

If somebody is like “oh wow the jets are so good their defense is tight” you can feel good knowing that we’re basically a rounding error away from them in team defensive results.

We’re a top third of the league 5v5 team. We just need a little more offense.

Hurry up Snuggerud.

Moneypuck under teams (with default 5v5 selected) let’s you compare a ton of different stats. Here’s where we’re extreme:

Dead last in rebound shots for. Interesting that Toronto is very close to us at the bottom. Perhaps Chief’s fingerprint, but I’d guess both us and toronto take more wrist shots than normal, less slappers, so maybe it’s just the personnel.

We’re also 4th to last in rebound goals against.

Those are the only two I see that are extreme.

We’re average or above average in most defensive categories and average in most offensive categories resulting in us being “better” than about 2/3 of the teams.

Their model does perceive us to be a net recipient of luck so far. Our goal differential results are higher than what their model expects and our pdo is above 101.

 

[BlueMed]

Dom's model and player cards has Parayko's Market Value at 6.6mil.

And why should anyone care? I don't mean to be edgy, but he's not an expert in the game or anything. He's a journalist who throws random equations together in his basement...

 

[bleedblue1223]

Bolduc has 9 points, 6 of them goals, over his last 11 games. While I'd agree that he's absolutely earned a top 6 role with his recent play, his offense combined with Sunny's and Joseph's defensive play, is a big reason for our improved team success. We are at a point where we have a pretty solid top 9 for a bottom playoff team. Instead of the 3rd line being an offensive black hole, they now actually produce, while playing great defense. Bolduc has bigger and better things in front of him, especially once we have more talent and our 3rd line has talent to match his, and Sunny/Joseph slot down to the 4th, but right now they are playing great hockey.

 

[Reality Czech]

Bolduc is scoring at a .44ppg while only averaging 12:21 minutes of ice time per game.

He’s also putting up these numbers while playing with Sundqvist and Joseph.

Sundqvist is scoring at a .29ppg clip. Joseph is at .22ppg. How bad is this? Texier has both of them beat at .33ppg.

Bolduc has done enough for a stint with Thomas.

I'll agree Bolduc is better than Joseph overall but when you talk about a ppg difference of .15 or .11 you're talking about one extra point over a period of roughly 7-9 games. It's not really that big of a difference. I have no doubt that the reason Monty isn't putting him on the first line has a lot more to do with the matchups they're getting rather than his ppg. Besides, coaches don't generally mess with lines when the team is playing as well as we've been lately. Neighbours is a much better all around player than Bolduc at this stage, but if Bolduc keeps improving and finds some consistency then I'm sure he'll get his shot at some point.

 

[Spektre]

I'll agree Bolduc is better than Joseph overall but when you talk about a ppg difference of .15 or .11 you're talking about one extra point over a period of roughly 7-9 games. It's not really that big of a difference. I have no doubt that the reason Monty isn't putting him on the first line has a lot more to do with the matchups they're getting rather than his ppg. Besides, coaches don't generally mess with lines when the team is playing as well as we've been lately. Neighbours is a much better all around player than Bolduc at this stage, but if Bolduc keeps improving and finds some consistency then I'm sure he'll get his shot at some point.

I’m not trying to hype Bolduc. Acquiring a .44ppg pace, while only playing 12 minutes a game, and being a +15 as a rookie, with scrubs for line mates is pretty impressive.

I’m ready to see Bolduc Dvorsky Snuggerud as the 3rd line.

 

[bleedblue1223]

And here's another way to look at it. With all the young players we are going to have coming up, there's a couple routes you can take. You can throw a kid line together, shelter them, and hope for the best, or you can spread them out with the vets to shelter them. Since Dvorsky and Snuggerud were always going to be more for next season, this season was going to be key for Holloway and Neighbors to an extent, but really Bolduc to develop into a quality enough NHL player, where you don't have to worry as much with their development if another young guy is on their line. I think all 3 have done pretty well in that aspect. Holloway is a legitimate top forward on this team, Neighbours definitely has some defensive issues and maybe doesn't have that high of an offensive ceiling, but I'd feel comfortable if there was a rookie with him, and Bolduc has developed enough where you can see he's on a path of being a player.

I see our top 9 as being able to have 3 pairs of vets with Thomas, Buchnevich, Kyrou, Holloway, Schenn, and Neighbours, and then we can sprinkle in Bolduc, Dvorsky, and Snuggerud. I could still see them going a kid line route, and Sunny plays up at times for the defensive side of things, but Monty has options.

In a glass half full approach, I'm thrilled with Holloway, satisfied with Neighbours, and very optimistic with Bolduc.

 

[Brian39]

Bolduc has 9 points, 6 of them goals, over his last 11 games. While I'd agree that he's absolutely earned a top 6 role with his recent play, his offense combined with Sunny's and Joseph's defensive play, is a big reason for our improved team success. We are at a point where we have a pretty solid top 9 for a bottom playoff team. Instead of the 3rd line being an offensive black hole, they now actually produce, while playing great defense. Bolduc has bigger and better things in front of him, especially once we have more talent and our 3rd line has talent to match his, and Sunny/Joseph slot down to the 4th, but right now they are playing great hockey.

I'm extremely content keeping Bolduc in his current role to see how long he can continue scoring in that role. The team is playing its best hockey of the year and every line is clicking. I very much don't want to break up 2 lines just to reward Bolduc. I have absolutely no concern about him stagnating by staying in his current role and right now winning games is more important to the team than seeing how he responds to an increased degree of difficulty.

It is worth noting that the coaching staff has recognized and rewarded him and the 3rd line. Bolduc has played 13:06 a night in the 11 game sample you listed. That's a minute more than the 12:10 he was getting in the previous 44 games. He's had 10 nights where he has gotten 14+ minutes. 5 of those games came in the 11 game stretch you listed.

 

[BlueMed]

And here's another way to look at it. With all the young players we are going to have coming up, there's a couple routes you can take. You can throw a kid line together, shelter them, and hope for the best, or you can spread them out with the vets to shelter them. Since Dvorsky and Snuggerud were always going to be more for next season, this season was going to be key for Holloway and Neighbors to an extent, but really Bolduc to develop into a quality enough NHL player, where you don't have to worry as much with their development if another young guy is on their line. I think all 3 have done pretty well in that aspect. Holloway is a legitimate top forward on this team, Neighbours definitely has some defensive issues and maybe doesn't have that high of an offensive ceiling, but I'd feel comfortable if there was a rookie with him, and Bolduc has developed enough where you can see he's on a path of being a player.

I see our top 9 as being able to have 3 pairs of vets with Thomas, Buchnevich, Kyrou, Holloway, Schenn, and Neighbours, and then we can sprinkle in Bolduc, Dvorsky, and Snuggerud. I could still see them going a kid line route, and Sunny plays up at times for the defensive side of things, but Monty has options.

In a glass half full approach, I'm thrilled with Holloway, satisfied with Neighbours, and very optimistic with Bolduc.

I would agree. A lot of fans seem to think that this team is stuck in the middle, when we're really waiting on Snuggerud and Dvorsky to get here.

Dallas had the deepest forward group in the Western Conference last year, and their top 9 collectively combined for 531 points, accounting for Sam Steel's production rather than Stankoven's late season arrival.

Last year's Blues top 9 combined for 414 points. This year's top 9 is projected to combine for 392 points, largely due to injuries to Thomas and Sundqvist and number of healthy scratches for Bolduc and Joseph. Conservatively speaking, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect the following point totals next season, assuming full health.

Thomas 80 points
Kyrou 70 points
Buchnevich 65 points
Holloway 65 points
Schenn 45 points
Neighbours 45 points
Bolduc 45 points
Dvorksy 40 points
Snuggerud 40 points

That's a total of 495 points and should be a safe bet for at least a wild card spot, provided that there's not a significant decline in defense or goaltending compared to this year. The year after it might be even more when Dvorksy, Bolduc, Neighbours, and Snuggerud get more acclimated. This seems to be Army's vision.

 

[StlBigFly]

Decided to play around on money puck

Just hunting through various things.

Decided to look at d pairs above 400 minutes.

Didn’t expect anything severe. Thought I’d find some clumps of blues in the middle. Did not expect to see our previously used shutdown pairing with cavernous expected goals ratio, especially considering Parayko has been so much more active offensively and converting. These dudes were holding down the fort almost every time it needed to be held down, but Maybe we leaned too hard on Parayko Suter. It gave everybody else opportunity, so that’s nice.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I would agree. A lot of fans seem to think that this team is stuck in the middle, when we're really waiting on Snuggerud and Dvorsky to get here.

Dallas had the deepest forward group in the Western Conference last year, and their top 9 collectively combined for 531 points, accounting for Sam Steel's production rather than Stankoven's late season arrival.

Last year's Blues top 9 combined for 414 points. This year's top 9 is projected to combine for 392 points, largely due to injuries to Thomas and Sundqvist and number of healthy scratches for Bolduc and Joseph. Conservatively speaking, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect the following point totals next season, assuming full health.

Thomas 80 points
Kyrou 70 points
Buchnevich 65 points
Holloway 65 points
Schenn 45 points
Neighbours 45 points
Bolduc 45 points
Dvorksy 40 points
Snuggerud 40 points

That's a total of 495 points and should be a safe bet for at least a wild card spot, provided that there's not a significant decline in defense or goaltending compared to this year. The year after it might be even more when Dvorksy, Bolduc, Neighbours, and Snuggerud get more acclimated. This seems to be Army's vision.

This is interesting analysis. Thanks d like to see a version that accounts better for inevitable injuries from every team and expressed production at the top 9 positions including the injury subs. Those numbers may say more about playoff projections.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Decided to play around on money puck

Just hunting through various things.

Decided to look at d pairs above 400 minutes.

Didn’t expect anything severe. Thought I’d find some clumps of blues in the middle. Did not expect to see our previously used shutdown pairing with cavernous expected goals ratio, especially considering Parayko has been so much more active offensively and converting. These dudes were holding down the fort almost every time it needed to be held down, but Maybe we leaned too hard on Parayko Suter. It gave everybody else opportunity, so that’s nice.

They just don't create offensive chances.

 

[StlBigFly]

We’re a power play goal against or two

From joining 3 other present day teams

In the list of the top 10 worst season long penalty kill % all time.

We’re 11th worst all time right now. Always nice for their to be room for improvement but I don’t know we needed this much.

Worst NHL Penalty Kill Percentage In A Season | StatMuse

The Los Angeles Kings have the worst penalty-kill percentage by a team in a season, at 68.2 percent in 1979-80.

www.statmuse.com

 

[bleedblue1223]

It's why I couldn't care less if we bring back the assistants, the special teams have not been good, PP is at least just below average, but has been improving.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

It's why I couldn't care less if we bring back the assistants, the special teams have not been good, PP is at least just below average, but has been improving.

I’m so done with Ott.

 

[STL fan in MN]

We’re a power play goal against or two

From joining 3 other present day teams

In the list of the top 10 worst season long penalty kill % all time.

We’re 11th worst all time right now. Always nice for their to be room for improvement but I don’t know we needed this much.

Worst NHL Penalty Kill Percentage In A Season | StatMuse

The Los Angeles Kings have the worst penalty-kill percentage by a team in a season, at 68.2 percent in 1979-80.

www.statmuse.com

That’s interesting that 4 of the all-time worst 11 PK percentages are from this season.

I wonder if the inverse is also true then - that a few teams from this season have PP %s among the best ever.

 

[bleedblue1223]

That’s interesting that 4 of the all-time worst 11 PK percentages are from this season.

I wonder if the inverse is also true then - that a few teams from this season have PP %s among the best ever.

2 in top 10, 4 in top 17.

 

[StlBigFly]

That’s interesting that 4 of the all-time worst 11 PK percentages are from this season.

I wonder if the inverse is also true then - that a few teams from this season have PP %s among the best ever.

4 in the top 17!

None are the oilers. (They’d be right off the screen at 26.6)

https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/best-nhl-power-play-percentage-in-a-season

should just get game tape and study special teams all day. Advance scouts in demand rn I bet.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

4 in the top 17!

None are the oilers. (They’d be right off the screen at 26.6)

https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/best-nhl-power-play-percentage-in-a-season

should just get game tape and study special teams all day. Advance scouts in demand rn I bet.

What do you mean by advanced scouts?

I have an idea, but not sure.

 

[StlBigFly]

What do you mean by advanced scouts?

I have an idea, but not sure.

Guy/gal who watches the team that your team is about to play

They “leave in advance” to go watch the next opponent or whatever. Maybe a football derived term.

Or in this case, watches all special teams over time and prepares a report to teams about the changes and methods various teams are using. Probably have to focus on how they’re drawing penalties too.

 

[Reality Czech]

That’s interesting that 4 of the all-time worst 11 PK percentages are from this season.

I wonder if the inverse is also true then - that a few teams from this season have PP %s among the best ever.

I did a very quick and unscientific analysis a little while back, but power play % is WAY up in the NHL compared to the past. Go back even 20ish years and the league's best power plays were rarely much over 20%.

For example, in 2005-6 the league's best PP was Detroit at 22.1%. There were 4 teams with a PP% over 20% that season. This year the 21st best PP in the league is over 20%, so 2/3 of the league have a PP% equal or better than the best teams 20 years ago. Even going back to 2015-16, the league's best PP% was only 23%, which would place them tied for 14th best this year.

I'm sure there are a combination of factors that have led to this, but it's one big reason why goalie save percentages are down I'd say (in combination with the number of OT games in which a 3-on-3 goal is scored).

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Guy/gal who watches the team that your team is about to play

They “leave in advance” to go watch the next opponent or whatever. Maybe a football derived term.

Or in this case, watches all special teams over time and prepares a report to teams about the changes and methods various teams are using. Probably have to focus on how they’re drawing penalties too.

Ohhh, I see. Not what I thought at all.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

I did a very quick and unscientific analysis a little while back, but power play % is WAY up in the NHL compared to the past. Go back even 20ish years and the league's best power plays were rarely much over 20%.

For example, in 2005-6 the league's best PP was Detroit at 22.1%. There were 4 teams with a PP% over 20% that season. This year the 21st best PP in the league is over 20%, so 2/3 of the league have a PP% equal or better than the best teams 20 years ago. Even going back to 2015-16, the league's best PP% was only 23%, which would place them tied for 14th best this year.

I'm sure there are a combination of factors that have led to this, but it's one big reason why goalie save percentages are down I'd say (in combination with the number of OT games in which a 3-on-3 goal is scored).

That makes sense seeing that 4 of the top 17 worst PKs are from this season. Or something like that.

 

[i aint Dunn yet]

edit : they tell me to report a log in issue when you cant log in

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

edit : they tell me to report a log in issue when you cant log in

Wake up and go to sleep.