I think there are good reasons to bet the over on 86.5, but I don't think his model projecting us lower is remotely unreasonable.
It took a top 3-5 goaltending, extreme health, and a 12-6 OT record to get to 92 points last year. As he mentions, our underlying numbers were brutal and the team defense was awful. We have reason to believe that we've improved that area, but most of that potential improvement comes in the form of reclamation projects or inexperienced guys succeeding in elevated roles. No model based on past info is going to reflect/predict that.
It certainly won't be surprising if this team finishes under 86.5 points. I think that the betting sites picked a pretty good number for our over/under as you can justify both directions.
In the last 4 years he has under-estimated us twice (2021/22 and 2023/24) and over-estimated us twice (2020/21 and 2022/23). He slightly under-estimated us in 2019/20, but he had us 5th in the league so it is hard to act like he was way off.
Dom is 100% a hack.
He wrote about the 10 worst contracts in the entire league. Parayko is ranked 4th. That is beyond absurd.
“
4. Colton Parayko
Contract: $6.5M x six years
Model Value: $2.5M x six years
Here’s the thing with
Colton Parayko: He’s still very good defensively in a shutdown role and that holds a lot of value. He makes key stops for the
Blues and eats tough minutes, both things that the model holds in high regard which gives him a strong Defensive Rating.
What Parayko doesn’t have going for him is something that many underrate when it comes to matchup defensemen: the other dimension. Shutdown guys don’t need to be Bobby Orr, but they do need to not be one-dimensional — especially at a $6.5 million ticket. For guys playing in a shutdown role, the ability to make sure offense flows the other way is crucial to getting the most out of locking things down defensively. Parayko’s profile is essentially a reverse-
Vladimir Tarasenko.
There’s a lot of value in what Parayko brings and there’s something to be said about not being in the best environment to succeed with the Blues too. But what Parayko lacks is what separates him from the true top-pair defensemen you see on playoff teams — and what puts him well under his current cap hit.
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Maybe calling him a $4 million (or less) defenseman is harsh, sure. But the even bigger problem is that he’s 31 and has six years left at his current price tag.
It’s not out of line to think Parayko could play at a $6.25 million level — that calls for a Net Rating of plus-five. But he hasn’t been at that level since 2020 so it’s a lot to ask for now, let alone for the next six seasons.
Maybe Parayko could thrive somewhere else and live up to this deal. But his current situation in St. Louis where he’s expected to be The Guy despite lacking the offensive chops to do so puts him in a very difficult spot. If he doesn’t find an offensive element, this could turn into a
Marc-Edouard Vlasicsequel. ”
By the end of the season he had Parayko as the 2nd best D on the Blues via player cards. At times he had Parayko as low as the 4th best D on the Blues.
There’s no way he watches Blues games. If he ever says he does watch Blues hockey it would make him even more of a hack.
Binnington was the MVP for the Blues last year but Parayko is 100% in the conversation as #2.
Dom has admitted publicly to not liking the Blues. That’s the opposite of journalism. He knows how to cherry pick stats. I maintain he knows shit about hockey and writes articles out of his ass.
Adding that he ranked Nurse as the 9th worst contract with him making 9.3 million per season. Yeah, Parayko’s contract is worse than Nurse lol