Blue Jays GDT: 2023 v6 | Thu, Jul 6 | *DOUBLEHEADER* | @ CWS | 5:00pm ET/2:00pm PT & TBA after| Berrios vs Lynn & Kikuchi vs TBA

[MS]

I continue to believe that hitting with runners in scoring position is mostly random variance. They've underperformed in big situations so far, but it'll turn around and the runs will start coming. I get the frustration, but it's often just the nature of baseball.

There have been all kinds of studies that show this to be the case. They just had a weird month where their hit distribution didn't happen at the right times.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

What probability are we thinking for the Jays to make the playoffs, as of this moment?

 

[MS]

What probability are we thinking for the Jays to make the playoffs, as of this moment?

Baseball-Reference does a statistical calculation and has them at 72.5% making the playoffs.

 

[Vector]

What probability are we thinking for the Jays to make the playoffs, as of this moment?

Fangraphs has them at 63.5% to make the playoffs, 4.9% to win the division, and 4.4% to win the world series.

 

[Discoverer]

There have been all kinds of studies that show this to be the case. They just had a weird month where their hit distribution didn't happen at the right times.

Yeah, I think people just generally don't like or won't accept how much randomness there is in sports and always feel the need to establish a reason for everything that happens, especially when it happens multiple times or over what seems like a long stretch. In reality, a month or two of underperforming your peripherals isn't likely caused by some inherent flaw in the team or the hitting coach or the lineup or the approach or whatever. It just happens sometimes.

The Jays could use an add to the lineup (probably the RH hitting OF they should have signed in the offseason), but even if they do nothing they'll probably start scoring more runs and that luck levels out the way it pretty much always does.

 

[Discoverer]

Fangraphs has them at 63.5% to make the playoffs, 4.9% to win the division, and 4.4% to win the world series.

That seems pretty high considering how tight it is right now, but I guess with just one game separating the Yankees/Astros/Jays for the 2/3 spots, it makes sense. I also expect the Orioles to start coming back down to earth in a big way, though they have a bit of a cushion right now.

 

[Suntouchable13]

That seems pretty high considering how tight it is right now, but I guess with just one game separating the Yankees/Astros/Jays for the 2/3 spots, it makes sense. I also expect the Orioles to start coming back down to earth in a big way, though they have a bit of a cushion right now.

This should be a playoff team. If they miss, there will be lots of questions for Atkins to answer to. To me, it seems like we should take off and Baltimore will slow down. Big series starting tomorrow. And the Yankees are not really good, Jays should pass them too.

 

[Eyedea]

I believe the O’s falling out of contention is what’s one of the biggest reasons for the Jays having a high probability to make it. They have the hardest schedule left on paper compared to the Jays, Yanks, and Astros, and their starting pitching isn’t particularly good.

Edit: The Rangers too (high SOS, projections still aren't kind to them), though I think they're more legit with the way Eovaldi and Gray have been pitching. And of course their ridiculous offensive production so far this year.

 

[Discoverer]

This should be a playoff team. If they miss, there will be lots of questions for Atkins to answer to. To me, it seems like we should take off and Baltimore will slow down. Big series starting tomorrow. And the Yankees are not really good, Jays should pass them too.

The Judge injury could be devastating for them. They rely on him more than any team in the league relies on any individual player.

 

[Discoverer]

I believe the O’s falling out of contention is what’s one of the biggest reasons for the Jays having a high probability to make it. They have the hardest schedule left on paper compared to the Jays, Yanks, and Astros, and their starting pitching isn’t particularly good.

Edit: The Rangers too (high SOS, projections still aren't kind to them), though I think they're more legit with the way Eovaldi and Gray have been pitching. And of course their ridiculous offensive production so far this year.

"Not particularly good" might be a bit too generous to the Orioles rotation. They're bottom third in pretty much every advanced stat and peripheral. The bullpen is keeping their pitching afloat right now, but I guess I'm not convinced in all of their out-of-nowhere bullpen aces (specifically Cano and Coulombe) keeping it up.

 

[Eyedea]

"Not particularly good" might be a bit too generous to the Orioles rotation. They're bottom third in pretty much every advanced stat and peripheral. The bullpen is keeping their pitching afloat right now, but I guess I'm not convinced in all of their out-of-nowhere bullpen aces (specifically Cano and Coulombe) keeping it up.

You're forgetting one thing, WinZ Erneh

 

[phillipmike]

Jays have an opportunity here. I looked at their schedule and it looks very good until the last 2 weeks of September;

Jays Schedule from June 13 to September 19th and current winning percentage:
3 vs Baltimore - .631
3 vs Texas - .641
3 vs Miami - .561
3 vs Oakland - .254
3 vs San Francisco - .508
3 vs Boston - .500
3 vs Chicago WS - .433
3 vs Tigers - .413
3 vs Arizona - .615
3 vs San Diego - .477
3 vs Seattle - .484
3 vs LA Dodgers - .561
3 vs LA Angels - .537
4 vs Baltimore - .631
3 vs Boston - .500
4 vs Cleveland - .477
3 vs Chicago Cubs - .431
2 vs Philadelphia - .492
3 vs Cincinnati - .470
3 vs Baltimore - .631
3 vs Cleveland - .431
3 vs Washington - .406
3 vs Colorado - .403
3 vs Oakland - .254
3 vs KC - .277
3 vs Texas - .641
3 vs Boston - .500

Then to finish the season the Jays have the Yankees 6 times and the Rays 6 times. Last 6 games are at home.

Before the Yankees and Rays, the Jays have 28 games vs teams well above .500 and 25 of them are against Baltimore, Texas, Miami, Boston and the Angels. All of those teams are beatable and 54 games vs teams around .500 or well below. 66% of the Jays next 82 games are pretty much against losing teams.

Sure Baltimore, Texas and Boston are good teams and Baltimore and Boston are 7-0 vs the Jays this season but there is no reason as to why the Jays cant at least get a .500 record vs those teams. Rangers and Arizona are "new good teams" who i put them in the same category of Baltimore and Boston. Only legit good team on this list is the Dodgers though the O's have my respect they are good.

If the Jays on average win their series vs the below .500 teams in those 54 games and go .500 in the 28 games vs the remaining good teams, they would have gone 50-32 with a record of 87-62 going into the last 12 games which is a pace of 95 wins. Jays need to be firmly in WC1 or WC2 by this point.

The key is the next 9 games vs Baltimore, Texas and Miami as they are the only legit winning team they will face until mid July and they are all on the road.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Yeah, I think people just generally don't like or won't accept how much randomness there is in sports and always feel the need to establish a reason for everything that happens, especially when it happens multiple times or over what seems like a long stretch. In reality, a month or two of underperforming your peripherals isn't likely caused by some inherent flaw in the team or the hitting coach or the lineup or the approach or whatever. It just happens sometimes.

The Jays could use an add to the lineup (probably the RH hitting OF they should have signed in the offseason), but even if they do nothing they'll probably start scoring more runs and that luck levels out the way it pretty much always does.

The game against the Twins the other day is a pretty perfect example on the random variance in hitting with RISP. Kirk and Belt both square up a ball and both just find the 2nd basemen. They both executed exactly what you want your player to in that situation...yet both get nothing out of it. Generally though if you keep doing that eventually you will find holes.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

That seems pretty high considering how tight it is right now, but I guess with just one game separating the Yankees/Astros/Jays for the 2/3 spots, it makes sense. I also expect the Orioles to start coming back down to earth in a big way, though they have a bit of a cushion right now.

No timetable for Judge's return. Same with Yordan.

We'll see how far each team's pitching can carry their trash offense without their best hitter (although Tucker is good and due to regress). I trust Houston's pitching more than the Yanks.

 

[Eyedea]

Despite the historical start from the Rays, they're only 10 games up on us. Same point (67 games) into last year the Jays were 38-29 and 12 games back of the Yankees (50-17). The Jays managed to bring that down to what, 5 games by September 10? Might be more challenging to climb back with less intradivision matchups, or is this beneficial to the Jays as it always seems like the Rays/Yanks boost their leads against us?

 

[CabanaBoy5]

If Gausman, Bassitt, Berrios, and Kikuchi can continue pitch as well as they have and Richards, Swanson, Pearson, and Romano out of the bullpen are also as solid as they have been, I'm confident this pitching staff will help us take a chunk out of that 10 game lead Tampa has. The defence is solid and a huge improvement over last season. The offence will be the wildcard. I just don't see the depth in the lineup at this time.

 

[Eyedea]

Offence just hasn't clicked yet. Varsho/Vlad have been great on the road, poor at home. Springer/Kirk have been great at home, poor on the road. Even Bo has a significant difference in his splits (but he's good wherever he hits). Overall their offence, specifically their power production, drops when at home. The new dimensions have clearly had a significant affect so far. Like how Camden completely zaps righty power except the Jays did this to all fields.

Maybe the dark ages are upon us and these renovations have made Toronto a hitter's cemetery.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

Jays have been pretty lucky health wise compared to the Yanks and Rays. The start by the Rays is even more incredible considering all the injuries they've death with, and how they lost two of their stud SPs for the year.

The division is likely a pipedream because Jays will inevitably deal with injuries, and I'm not sure if they'll overcome them as well as some of the other teams.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

At least Blue Jay killer Mountcastle is not playing tonight!

Bottom of the O's lineup....brutal. When will they call up Cowser and Westburg?

 

[Eyedea]

Jays have been pretty lucky health wise compared to the Yanks and Rays. The start by the Rays is even more incredible considering all the injuries they've death with, and how they lost two of their stud SPs for the year.

The division is likely a pipedream because Jays will inevitably deal with injuries, and I'm not sure if they'll overcome them as well as some of the other teams.

Do players sucking count? Because losing Manoah is a pretty significant one.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

Do players sucking count? Because losing Manoah is a pretty significant one.

True. A huge reason why the Jays aren't closer to 1st place. Probably what, 6 losses from early game blowups? 2 vs Tampa, too

 

[McFly2544]

Jays whole season will come down to the last 12 games…6 game road trip vs Yanks and Rays and then 6 game homestand vs…yup, Yanks and Rays

 

[Suntouchable13]

Hopefully Oakland As return to being the Oakland As by the time we face them, sheesh.

 

[Discoverer]

Jays have been pretty lucky health wise compared to the Yanks and Rays. The start by the Rays is even more incredible considering all the injuries they've death with, and how they lost two of their stud SPs for the year.

The division is likely a pipedream because Jays will inevitably deal with injuries, and I'm not sure if they'll overcome them as well as some of the other teams.

The Yankees were built almost exclusively around players with extremely high injury risk. I don't think they've been any less "lucky" than the Jays injury-wise... this should have been the expectation for them.