Blue Jays GDT: 2023 v4 | Sun, May 21 | vs BAL | 1:30pm ET/10:30am PT | Kremer vs Gausman

[Seath The Scaleless]

What an awful series.

Next are the pesky Pirates, although they just got swept by Tampa

 

[MK78]

Loser night in Canada, both Jays & Leafs are getting destroyed.

 

[Schennanigans]

Why are the jays terrible now?

 

[MK78]

And the game's done... Jays go out with a whimper, getting swept in 4 and lose 5 straight.

 

[LaP]

2020 : the bullpen needs upgrade
2020 : the bullpen needs upgrade
2021 : the bullpen needs upgrade
2022 : the bullpen needs upgrade
2023 : starting to look like the bullpen still needs an upgrade

At which point the GM needs an upgrade?

Don't want to be negative even though i thought at the beginning of the year there was still holes (nothing unsolvable at a deadline) but at which point you admit the Belt project is a failure? Also i get they want to please everyone but i don't get why Belt and Biggio were in the lineup with a 4 games losing streak. I'm sorry but Biggio is "what you see is what you get at this point" he's not a quality MLB player (not even on the bench). He can fill a role on a losing team i guess but he's playing way too much considering the Jays want to win.

 

[The Nemesis]

8 most used RPs for each season, by IP, & can't have started more than 20% of their appearances):

2019: Gaviglio, Law, Giles, Mayza, Biagini, Pannone, Hudson, Shafer
2020: Hatch, Bass, Yamaguchi, Dolis, Cole, Kay, Borucki, Font
2021: Romano, Mayza, Thornton, Cimber, Dolis, Richards, Payamps, Chatwood
2022: Cimber, Romano, Richards, Phelps, Garcia, Mayza, Thornton, Merryweather
2023: Garcia, Swanson, Pop, Richards, Romano, Cimber, Bass, Mayza

Names in bold are holdovers from the most used pen arms of the previous season.

They've turned the pen over several times in the last few years. Fixing a pen is the hardest thing to do if you're not going to do something stupid like pay millions for multiple FA closers because it's so random. Like last year both Cimber and Bass were great. Garcia was pretty good. This was a pen that, on paper, looked like it should be pretty good with Swanson added and the potential for Pearson and Pop to earn full-time jobs. And yet here we are in a universe where Bass and Cimber imploded, Garcia inexplicably struggled, Pop and his stupid crazy sinker is suddenly HR prone (and now he's hurt) and Trevor Richards went from being the guy most people wanted to fire into the sun to being arguably the most consistent regular reliever they've had this season.

Bullpens are weird. The moment you think you've got everything figure out it all goes to hell.

 

[dredeye]

We're in fourth place in the east lol. I don't even care anymore. I'm not investing in sport anymore.

 

[GoonieFace]

2020 : the bullpen needs upgrade
2020 : the bullpen needs upgrade
2021 : the bullpen needs upgrade
2022 : the bullpen needs upgrade
2023 : starting to look like the bullpen still needs an upgrade

At which point the GM needs an upgrade?

Don't want to be negative even though i thought at the beginning of the year there was still holes (nothing unsolvable at a deadline) but at which point you admit the Belt project is a failure? Also i get they want to please everyone but i don't get why Belt and Biggio were in the lineup with a 4 games losing streak. I'm sorry but Biggio is "what you see is what you get at this point" he's not a quality MLB player (not even on the bench). He can fill a role on a losing team i guess but he's playing way too much considering the Jays want to win.

Bullpen is pretty solid for the most part, this series wasn’t really a fair assessment. The starters pitched what, 18 innings over 4 games? That’s a lot to ask for any team. Belt and Biggio shouldn’t be playing at all

 

[Bjindaho]

At this point, I am firmly on the Cavan Biggio needs to be sent down wagon. Not only is he struggling with the bat, but he's been an albatross at 2B.

 

[LaP]

We're in fourth place in the east lol. I don't even care anymore. I'm not investing in sport anymore.

We have to be fair here. They would be 1st in the central. It's not a bad season. But i feel like the GM will have work to do at the deadline and it will take real solutions not half assed one like last year. Team needs a DH imo. Another solid RP would help too. Bass can't handle pressure. If Manoah can't find his groove again that will be a major issue but let's hope he's just having trouble managing the clock and will eventually adjust. Kikuchi is 4-0 that will likely wont last ... Kirk lack of fitness is still worrying to me.

 

[McFly2544]

At this point, I am firmly on the Cavan Biggio needs to be sent down wagon. Not only is he struggling with the bat, but he's been an albatross at 2B.

I don’t necessarily disagree but he’s the 12th guy on the position player depth chart…who would you replace him with?

 

[Discoverer]

I don’t necessarily disagree but he’s the 12th guy on the position player depth chart…who would you replace him with?

Horwitz is the only one who makes any sense right now. The only other realistic options would be Barger, who's injured and has been bad, and Lopez, who has worse numbers in Buffalo than Biggio has in the majors.

I also don't understand this "albatross at 2B" thing. Biggio has been perfectly fine defensively. His bat is the entire problem this year.

 

[Bjindaho]

Horwitz is the only one who makes any sense right now. The only other realistic options would be Barger, who's injured and has been bad, and Lopez, who has worse numbers in Buffalo than Biggio has in the majors.

I also don't understand this "albatross at 2B" thing. Biggio has been perfectly fine defensively. His bat is the entire problem this year.

Biggio is the rare case where Fangraphs defensive numbers are painting a much rosier picture than he has offered.

Looking at B-R, the only players at any given position worse than Biggio at 2B are Whit in LF (though his combined OF value is higher) and Espinal at 3B (which is entirely driven by him committing an error in 12 chances).

BJN brought up Clement as a possible sub and I can be fully behind giving him a shot to see if he can do something (especially given that he currently is rocking a better than 1 BB:K rate).

 

[Discoverer]

Biggio is the rare case where Fangraphs defensive numbers are painting a much rosier picture than he has offered.

Looking at B-R, the only players at any given position worse than Biggio at 2B are Whit in LF (though his combined OF value is higher) and Espinal at 3B (which is entirely driven by him committing an error in 12 chances).

BJN brought up Clement as a possible sub and I can be fully behind giving him a shot to see if he can do something (especially given that he currently is rocking a better than 1 BB:K rate).

What number are you basing that on? Because B-R uses DRS, and they have him as even, which is the lowest of the three main ones.

DRS - 0
UZR - +0.2
OAA - +1

Those are all in line with his career averages at 2B. He's been perfectly fine.

 

[Bjindaho]

What number are you basing that on? Because B-R uses DRS, and they have him as even, which is the lowest of the three main ones.

DRS - 0
UZR - +0.2
OAA - +1

Those are all in line with his career averages at 2B. He's been perfectly fine.

They use RTot and DRS. RTot and UZR are based on different measurements, where your other stats use UZR which is based on how many plays a player makes based on where it is hit (independent of range) and RTot assigns probabilities to batted balls based on whether they are grounders, line drives, or pop (flies). If memory serves correct, modern RTot actually incorporates Stat Cast data so that not all balls are the same.

This is why George Springers UZR based data sucks.

 

[Discoverer]

They use RTot and DRS. RTot and UZR are based on different measurements, where your other stats use UZR which is based on how many plays a player makes based on where it is hit (independent of range) and RTot assigns probabilities to batted balls based on whether they are grounders, line drives, or pop (flies). If memory serves correct, modern RTot actually incorporates Stat Cast data so that not all balls are the same.

This is why George Springers UZR based data sucks.

Ok, so we can add his -1 RTot to the other stats. If you want to use that one stat and ignore every other stat (which would be silly, since it's the outlier and even Statcast itself disagrees) I still don't get how being a -1 in a small sample makes him an "albatross".

 

[Bjindaho]

Ok, so we can add his -1 RTot to the other stats. If you want to use that one stat and ignore every other stat (which would be silly, since it's the outlier and even Statcast itself disagrees) I still don't get how being a -1 in a small sample makes him an "albatross".

Of anyone of similar or more innings played at 2B, he's the 7th worst guy in RTot/Yr. Of the 6 that have been worse, all but one Massey have been driven by errors.

Essentially, the gist of the problem is that a significant percentage of the 40 chances he has had in 89 innings involve balls hit relatively close to him. His positioning (FG data) suggests that he makes a high percentage of plays hit to traditional 2nd, but the BR data suggests that he is struggling with range).

Keep in mind that all of the numbers that you quoted are based on slices (ie if you start from the spot the ball is hit to you get the same value as if you were shifted up the middle and had to run 10 feet). This is why FG's data says that Matt Chapman has sucked as a Blue Jay (and Varsho) whereas BR has them T4 and T1 respectively in rDRS. Keep in mind that rDRS and fDRS are not the same stat even if both are doing well in each.

While Biggio grades out as being on the positive side of 0 in FG, he grades out as being on the negative side of 0 in BR. He has the slowest transfer speed at 2nd, but the negatives for that fall on Chapman and Bo.

 

[Discoverer]

Of anyone of similar or more innings played at 2B, he's the 7th worst guy in RTot/Yr. Of the 6 that have been worse, all but one Massey have been driven by errors.

Essentially, the gist of the problem is that a significant percentage of the 40 chances he has had in 89 innings involve balls hit relatively close to him. His positioning (FG data) suggests that he makes a high percentage of plays hit to traditional 2nd, but the BR data suggests that he is struggling with range).

Keep in mind that all of the numbers that you quoted are based on slices (ie if you start from the spot the ball is hit to you get the same value as if you were shifted up the middle and had to run 10 feet). This is why FG's data says that Matt Chapman has sucked as a Blue Jay (and Varsho) whereas BR has them T4 and T1 respectively in rDRS. Keep in mind that rDRS and fDRS are not the same stat even if both are doing well in each.

While Biggio grades out as being on the positive side of 0 in FG, he grades out as being on the negative side of 0 in BR. He has the slowest transfer speed at 2nd, but the negatives for that fall on Chapman and Bo.

I won't pretend to know all the ins and outs, but that certainly doesn't seem to be the way Statcast measures defense.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Man, that was brutal. What a gut punch that series against Boston was. Absolutely demoralizing as a fan.

 

[canucksfan]

Hopefully they have a good series

 

[MK78]

I think Bo was gonna be out on that slide if the catcher was able to get it. a bit too aggressive send IMO.

 

[saska sault]

Bassit with 2 - IP, 2 - SO, and 1 - TB

 

[MK78]

Nice double for Varsho to drive in a run. God hope he's coming around.

 

[The Nemesis]

Spring-a-ding-ding.

 

[MK78]

A Springer Dinger! finally.