Blue Jays GDT: 2023 v11 | Wed, Sept 21 | @ NYY | 7:00pm ET/4:00pm PT | Berrios vs Cole

[Eyedea]

If, and it's a big if at this point, the Jays backdoor their way into the 3rd WC, does anyone really have faith in this offense against elite pitching in a short series?

Pitching has had to be near perfect all year and now the offense can't win some games for them. Brutal ABs and virtually no power

Honestly it doesn’t matter. If they somehow get in, anything can happen.

 

[MK78]

This series couldn’t have gone worse.

Not only 4 losses, but they got completely dominated.

 

[Leafblooded]

Honestly this team is done. Fat f***s

 

[Ciao]

This series couldn’t have gone worse.

They could have lost players due to injuries.

Is Merrifield okay?

 

[Nineteen67]

Not really, they havent scored any more runs. It was 4-2 when that popped out of his glove.

It was 2-1 and both base runners scored. In the bottom of the inning Bo K‘d with the bases loaded and that was ball game.

 

[MK78]

They said on the radio they lost a 4 game series in September for the first time in franchise history.

It was 2-1 and both base runners scored. In the bottom of the inning Bo K‘d with the bases loaded and that was ball game.

Yeah, i thougt it was later on. my bad.

 

[CincoHolio]

Mattingly is incredibly overrated by some in the Jays fanbase.

this. he was the manager of those incredibly stacked yet playoff choking Dodgers teams. Not a guy I'd look to for guidance.

This team is doomed. Unfortunately I think Ed Rogers is a terrible person to have as an owner of this organization and I say that because I can see Shatkins as being very much his type of management people. He's unlikely to jettison them.

 

[Nineteen67]

If, and it's a big if at this point, the Jays backdoor their way into the 3rd WC, does anyone really have faith in this offense against elite pitching in a short series?

Pitching has had to be near perfect all year and now the offense can't win some games for them. Brutal ABs and virtually no power

Rogers doesn't want the expense of going to play one or two games

Does anyone watch MLB play in games? How are the ratings?

 

[MS]

In terms of management and the roster they built, this is theoretically the optimal roster with their OPS+ over the 2021-22 seasons :

1. Springer 135
2. Bichette 125
3. Guerrero 150
4. Belt 130
5. Chapman 108
6. Jansen 125/Kirk 120
7. Varsho 106
8, Merrifield 92
9. Kiermaier 98

Like, that should be a freaking murderers row, in theory. No weak spots, multiple elite bats, should have no problems being one of the best offenses in MLB. Belt was really the only big question mark after putting up poor numbers while playing injured in 2022, and there was no real reason to expect big declines from anyone else (except maybe Merrifield but you could expect Espinal/Biggio to put up similar numbers if age hit there).

And obviously that hasn't happened.

But ... is that management's fault? Or is it just bad luck and unexpected outcomes? Like, would any other management group have expected Guerrero and Kirk to crater like this or the weird RISP results and somehow created an alternative plan to avoid it?

And as a Canucks fan, I've seen dumb reactionary outcomes replace the best GM in franchise history with Jim Benning when one season went badly, and that is an avenue you don't want to go down.

And in terms of the manager, I don't see much of a problem with his individual decision making. And maybe a manager can create a bad environment where people underachieve, but an environment where pitchers overachieve and players overachieve defensively but only underachieve at the plate? That doesn't seem right.

Like, I don't know. This has been a weird, weird freaking season.

 

[Cloned]

In terms of management and the roster they built, this is theoretically the optimal roster with their OPS+ over the 2021-22 seasons :

1. Springer 135
2. Bichette 125
3. Guerrero 150
4. Belt 130
5. Chapman 108
6. Jansen 125/Kirk 120
7. Varsho 106
8, Merrifield 92
9. Kiermaier 98

Like, that should be a freaking murderers row, in theory. No weak spots, multiple elite bats, should have no problems being one of the best offenses in MLB. Belt was really the only big question mark after putting up poor numbers while playing injured in 2022, and there was no real reason to expect big declines from anyone else (except maybe Merrifield but you could expect Espinal/Biggio to put up similar numbers if age hit there).

And obviously that hasn't happened.

But ... is that management's fault? Or is it just bad luck and unexpected outcomes? Like, would any other management group have expected Guerrero and Kirk to crater like this or the weird RISP results and somehow created an alternative plan to avoid it?

And as a Canucks fan, I've seen dumb reactionary outcomes replace the best GM in franchise history with Jim Benning when one season went badly, and that is an avenue you don't want to go down.

And in terms of the manager, I don't see much of a problem with his individual decision making. And maybe a manager can create a bad environment where people underachieve, but an environment where pitchers overachieve and players overachieve defensively but only underachieve at the plate? That doesn't seem right.

Like, I don't know. This has been a weird, weird freaking season.

Some people were concerned about the offense after this past offseason. It’s not some huge shock that they lack power and consistent contact.

 

[MS]

Some people were concerned about the offense after this past offseason. It’s not some huge shock that they lack power and consistent contact.

The contact numbers are great. 4th most walks, 3rd fewest Ks. K:BB ratio is 2nd in the AL behind only Houston.

Power, yes there were questions about whether it would drop. But they were 1st in the AL last year so there was room to drop a bit in exchange for defensive improvement and I don't think anyone would reasonably have predicted what would happen to Guerrero/Kirk etc. this year.

This *should* be a very good offensive team. The results just haven't matched what the team should be doing on paper.

 

[Squiffy]

Is it on the players alone then though? It should be a solid offensive team, and I actually think by a bunch of easy metrics it is a top 10 offence team, but if we all agree the offence around the board is unpredictably poor, then where does that blame go? It has to be the coaches, and the management that hired them right? How does an entire team tank offensively, the odds without external intervention of poor coaching are impossible. An entire team can't slump all at once individually.

 

[MS]

Is it on the players alone then though? It should be a solid offensive team, and I actually think by a bunch of easy metrics it is a top 10 offence team, but if we all agree the offence around the board is unpredictably poor, then where does that blame go? It has to be the coaches, and the management that hired them right? How does an entire team tank offensively, the odds without external intervention of poor coaching are impossible. An entire team can't slump all at once individually.

I don't know.

Sometimes things just come together all shit and you get poor results.

The same TB team that got blown out in the 2019 playoffs won Cups in 2020 and 2021. The same Vegas team that missed the playoffs in 2022 won the Cup in 2023. Sometimes maybe you just have to understand that it just isn't your year.

I think certainly the hitting coaches have to be held accountable for not being able to sort Guerrero's struggles, in particular. And also Kirk.

I don't think what either Shatkins nor Schneider has done has been obviously bad. The pitching and defense - the things most controllable by the manager - have been excellent. The roster construction looks theoretically sound.

As I said above, I'm coming from a perspective where as a Canuck fan we had a very well-run team that had a bad 30 games in 2013 and an overreaction to that led to a decade of total incompetence we're still trying to recover from. So I'm very leery of being reactionary to things that haven't obviously been poorly done. The grass isn't always greener.

 

[Cloned]

I don't know.

Sometimes things just come together all shit and you get poor results.

The same TB team that got blown out in the 2019 playoffs won Cups in 2020 and 2021. The same Vegas team that missed the playoffs in 2022 won the Cup in 2023. Sometimes maybe you just have to understand that it just isn't your year.

I think certainly the hitting coaches have to be held accountable for not being able to sort Guerrero's struggles, in particular. And also Kirk.

I don't think what either Shatkins nor Schneider has done has been obviously bad. The pitching and defense - the things most controllable by the manager - have been excellent. The roster construction looks theoretically sound.

As I said above, I'm coming from a perspective where as a Canuck fan we had a very well-run team that had a bad 30 games in 2013 and an overreaction to that led to a decade of total incompetence we're still trying to recover from. So I'm very leery of being reactionary to things that haven't obviously been poorly done. The grass isn't always greener.

Gillis brought the Canucks to within a win of the Stanley Cup.

Atkins hasn’t even won a playoff game yet.

 

[MS]

Gillis brought the Canucks to within a win of the Stanley Cup.

Atkins hasn’t even won a playoff game yet.

And that's fair.

But have things gone predictably badly due to poor management? Or have they gone weirdly unexpectedly badly due to chance/injuries/unexpectedly poor individual performances?

Like, when I'm looking at this team ... the pitching has been some of the best in MLB despite the team's opening day starter/ace completely imploding. The defense has been the best in MLB. It's just that the batting lineup - which looks very good on paper - has just not delivered. And I don't know that from a management perspective anything has really been done 'wrong'. Like, they probably expected Guerrero to have a 150 OPS+ just the same as everybody posting here did.

 

[Puckstuff]

I don't know.

Sometimes things just come together all shit and you get poor results.

The same TB team that got blown out in the 2019 playoffs won Cups in 2020 and 2021. The same Vegas team that missed the playoffs in 2022 won the Cup in 2023. Sometimes maybe you just have to understand that it just isn't your year.

I think certainly the hitting coaches have to be held accountable for not being able to sort Guerrero's struggles, in particular. And also Kirk.

I don't think what either Shatkins nor Schneider has done has been obviously bad. The pitching and defense - the things most controllable by the manager - have been excellent. The roster construction looks theoretically sound.

As I said above, I'm coming from a perspective where as a Canuck fan we had a very well-run team that had a bad 30 games in 2013 and an overreaction to that led to a decade of total incompetence we're still trying to recover from. So I'm very leery of being reactionary to things that haven't obviously been poorly done. The grass isn't always greener.

Varsho, Kirk, Springer and Vladdy in particular were awful and produced way less then anyone could have ever anticipated. Atkins has some very big questions because without the excellent years from Kiermaier and Belt they would be lower in the standings. It seems like they need so much more then just changing a couple pieces. They need multiple impact players to carry this group imo.

 

[MS]

Varsho, Kirk, Springer and Vladdy in particular were awful and produced way less then anyone could have ever anticipated. Atkins has some very big questions because without the excellent years from Kiermaier and Belt they would be lower in the standings. It seems like they need so much more then just changing a couple pieces. They need multiple impact players to carry this group imo.

No argument there.

After what's happened this year, pressure is on to make big changes to get better results.

I just don't think the process heading into this season was really that flawed.

 

[Puckstuff]

No argument there.

After what's happened this year, pressure is on to make big changes to get better results.

I just don't think the process heading into this season was really that flawed.

I agree, I don’t think I can fault Atkins very much. He hit on many of the secondary pieces (Kiermaier, Belt, Swanson) but his core guys fell off the face of the earth. Not sure how anyone can forecast the Gurrerro and Manoah drop to be that significant.

 

[MS]

I agree, I don’t think I can fault Atkins very much. He hit on many of the secondary pieces (Kiermaier, Belt, Swanson) but his core guys fell off the face of the earth. Not sure how anyone can forecast the Gurrerro and Manoah drop to be that significant.

Yup.

Those guys have been worth a combined 0.3 WAR, when even the most conservative predictions at the start of the season would have had them at about 8 WAR. Last year they were worth 9.7 WAR and the year before they were worth 9.3 WAR with Manoah only playing a half season.

Like, what exactly do you do about that? How is management to blame for that?

Sports is weird. Weird shit happens.

And when you get a result like that, it's actually surprising we've done as well as we have and we didn't have a Padres/Mets/Yankees kind of season.

 

[RoadWarrior]

Varsho, Kirk, Springer and Vladdy in particular were awful and produced way less then anyone could have ever anticipated. Atkins has some very big questions because without the excellent years from Kiermaier and Belt they would be lower in the standings. It seems like they need so much more then just changing a couple pieces. They need multiple impact players to carry this group imo.

Vladdy can’t perform without protection in the lineup behind him. That’s the only way he gets decent pitches to hit. Losing Gurriel and Hernandez was crippling for Vladdy.

that being said his swing is now too long and he needs to drop at least 30 lbs.

I agree, I don’t think I can fault Atkins very much. He hit on many of the secondary pieces (Kiermaier, Belt, Swanson) but his core guys fell off the face of the earth. Not sure how anyone can forecast the Gurrerro and Manoah drop to be that significant.

When you show up to camp 40 lbs over weight it tends to impact your performance.

 

[mikeyz]

Yikes.

 

[Fourier]

I am not a big fan of the booing to be honest. In hockey you can sometimes see that guys are just not in the game or are dogging it. That can happen at times in baseball to a lesser degree with lazy plays on the bases or in the field. But that is not what I am seeing here. There seems to be a lot of try but just no results. Very disappointing.

 

[BobColesNasalCavity]

Vladdy can’t perform without protection in the lineup behind him. That’s the only way he gets decent pitches to hit. Losing Gurriel and Hernandez was crippling for Vladdy.

Vlad’s getting plenty of good pitches to hit, he just can’t hit a fastball for some reason.

 

[Eyedea]

I am not a big fan of the booing to be honest. In hockey you can sometimes see that guys are just not in the game or are dogging it. That can happen at times in baseball to a lesser degree with lazy plays on the bases or in the field. But that is not what I am seeing here. There seems to be a lot of try but just no results. Very disappointing.

If we give all of them the Philly treatment, perhaps we can turn them all into Trea Turner.

Standing ovations for everyone’s first AB tonight.

 

[Burnie97]

The biggest series of the season and they totally do a face plant. Absolutely brutal. Really frustrating to watch Toronto teams when any kind of pressure is on.

Eventually you'd think one team would get it... more talking about Jays and Leafs... but so far doesn't seem like they get it. We'll see.