HF Habs: 2023 Roster, Schedule & Standings Thread

[MadMslm]

Right now,

1-0 Flyers vs Washington, both behind the habs by a few points

5-0 Buffalo vs Columbus, that team just can’t buy a win and already 4 points by Thompson

 

[Gravity]

Sometimes yes.

But with what we've seen from Dach Guhle Suzuki and Caufield with Slafkovsky being a recent 1st overall showing his flashes. We aren't in danger of no man's land. We actually have two stars up front.

No elite talent to win a cup imo. Suzuki is a perfect 1B shooting at a career high. Guhle is still a rookie and the extent of his offensive abilities remains to be seen. Dach has impressed but I'm not fully sold just yet. No Mackinnon, Point, Malkin, Hedman level talent yet and you need that to win cups.

Alas good enough to make the playoffs but not win a cup is no man's land for me.

 

[Adam Michaels]

Caps won. So they tie Habs in the standings with 28 pts. However, Habs have 2 games in hand so they remain ahead of Caps in the standings.

Caps play Friday vs. Seattle. All Caps need is 1 point to move ahead of Habs..

Flames were down 2-0 to the Wild. But Flames are now up 3-2 after 2 periods.

 

[BozoTheClown]

No elite talent to win a cup imo. Suzuki is a perfect 1B shooting at a career high. Guhle is still a rookie and the extent of his offensive abilities remains to be seen. Dach has impressed but I'm not fully sold just yet. No Mackinnon, Point, Malkin, Hedman level talent yet and you need that to win cups.

Alas good enough to make the playoffs but not win a cup is no man's land for me.

Unfortunately, this organization will forever be in no man's land. Molson will not ok a rebuild lasting past this off season and i am not even sure fans want a real rebuild either.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

Unfortunately, this organization will forever be in no man's land. Molson will not ok a rebuild lasting past this off season and i am not even sure fans want a real rebuild either.

Molson has already agreed to a multi year rebuild or Hughes would not have agreed to be GM.

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

Unfortunately, this organization will forever be in no man's land. Molson will not ok a rebuild lasting past this off season and i am not even sure fans want a real rebuild either.

There's no reason for a quote on quote full rebuild right now. Habs are just a few years removed from a retool where they gained tons of prospects, picks, players that now have value on the market, and key core pieces such as Suzuki, Caufield, and Guhle, etc. The future bottom 6 is pretty much secured via prospects and current players (Evans as 4C). Habs probably have 5 young D that will be good for the next 10ish years. And they already have 2/3s of their future top 6. So the only things they're missing is a no.1 G, a top pairing D to play with Guhle, and two top 6 Fs. I believe they'll make a play for someone like Sorokin. They'll probably get PLD. And there is the 2023 draft where they'll probably get another top 6 F. So the only thing that's completely up in the air is how they're going to get a top pairing D. This does not constitute as a full on rebuild

 

[Adam Michaels]

Sabres move within 3 pts of Habs with their 9-4 win vs. Columbus.

 

[dinodebino]

Unfortunately, this organization will forever be in no man's land. Molson will not ok a rebuild lasting past this off season and i am not even sure fans want a real rebuild either.

You talked to him?

Fun first third of the season. Losses are coming in droves. Curious to know what is our record against playoff teams.

 

[WeThreeKings]

No elite talent to win a cup imo. Suzuki is a perfect 1B shooting at a career high. Guhle is still a rookie and the extent of his offensive abilities remains to be seen. Dach has impressed but I'm not fully sold just yet. No Mackinnon, Point, Malkin, Hedman level talent yet and you need that to win cups.

Alas good enough to make the playoffs but not win a cup is no man's land for me.

I think you need to re-adjust your evaluation of Suzuki. Yeah his shooting percentage is stupid high and nobody expects him to score 50 goals or 45, this year or any year but he's definitely capable of scoring around 30 every year.. and he creates so many chances that his assist totals should be higher than they are, so I think if you adjusted his shooting percentage to a realistic number but gave him the expected assists, he'd be hovering around the same point total.

We have to look at the stretch Caufield and Suzuki are on since MSL has joined. It's been separated by a full off-season as well, so it's not like its a hot streak they are riding. Under MSL they are near PPG players and they aren't even in their mid 20s yet.

We have two star players already.

I totally want to pick in the top 10 this year as much as anyone else and get that true blue chip star talent from the moment their name is called at the podium. We need to accept that might not happen but that's BECAUSE of the young under 24 talent on this team.

I'd take Suzuki and Caufield being legitimate star first line players over them being 2nd line players and getting Fantilli.

 

[the valiant effort]

We will have 3 first round picks in this draft. So yeah it sucks we are gonna have a PDO bender that puts us out of the top 7 but the Ducks didn't pick top 10 in 03 but left with Getzlaf and Perry. We just have to make the right picks here and there's plenty of options.

With the 6th highest shooting% coming into tonight, and a save% that is higher than anticipated, is this team not already be in the midst of a PDO bender?

 

[Riggins]

Give me 7th pre-lottery, that's all I ask at this point.

Anaheim, Arizona, Columbus, Chicago, Philly and SJ... you're all too crappy. The rest should pass us so long as we don't keep winning games we shouldn't all year.

Canucks are back up to .500. Washington too. Buffalo is almost there. Ottawa will probably pull their usual routine and climb out of this hole for no reason.

 

[NORiculous]

I'd take Suzuki and Caufield being legitimate star first line players over them being 2nd line players and getting Fantilli.

I’d take both. But we don’t know yet. So let’s hope the Habs get a top 4 like Fantili. Then we can hope S&C are stars.

Lots of Hockey left to play and a losing streak is bound to happen. The way I see it, a bottom 7 finish looks very probable. Then they just need to be a bit lucky .

 

[ReHabs]

I’ve been on the record as opposed to extended tanking/rebuilding but it seems like the Habs are not strategically tanking this year. Which is good for all the reasons we know (better prospects than expected, better coach than expected, etc) but if we don’t draft top5 it’ll mean that two years of tanking has been for naught. Neither Slafkovsky nor this year’s mid-round pick will be an immediately elite boom player that we would need to jumpstart a competitive window.

This has a lot of implications for how they should manoeuvre the next offseason and next year’s season. I guess the tank won’t end by the 2023 draft.

 

[BaseballCoach]

I’ve been on the record as opposed to extended tanking/rebuilding but it seems like the Habs are not strategically tanking this year. Which is good for all the reasons we know (better prospects than expected, better coach than expected, etc) but if we don’t draft top5 it’ll mean that two years of tanking has been for naught. Neither Slafkovsky nor this year’s mid-round pick will be an immediately elite boom player that we would need to jumpstart a competitive window.

This has a lot of implications for how they should manoeuvre the next offseason and next year’s season. I guess the tank won’t end by the 2023 draft.

It is not a sure thing that if we do not draft top-5 that we cannot jumpstart a competitive window.

We are ignoring the HUGE capspace benefit of over $20M we could easily have in 2024-25. That can buy talent!

Right now, we would draft 12th and 13th in 2023, but I expect some movement and that we end up around 8th and 16th.

To compete in 2024-2025, with realistic expectation of making playoffs and maybe winning a round or two if things go very well:

GOAL 1A/1B
4.500 Starter (maybe Montembeault)
3.850 Allen (if not traded due to another goalie being ready)

DEFENCE
0.863 Guhle
3.600 Barron (extend in 2024)
4.875 Matheson
0.897 Mailloux
2.500 Xhekaj (extend in 2024)
1.500 Harris (extend in 2023)
0.767 Kovacevic
1.750 Savard (post-trade 50% retention)

LINE 1
7.875 Suzuki
7.500 Caufield (extend in 2023)
0.950 Slafkovsky

LINE 2
5.000 Monahan (RE-SIGNED - 2nd year of three)
3.363 Dach
0.874 Farrell

LINE 3
0.917 Beck
0.950 Mesar
0.898 Heineman

LINE 4
1.700 Evans
6.500 Gallagher
0.857 Roy or other

Extra Forwards
1.100 Pitlick or Ylonen or RHP or other 13th F
0.775 Pezzetta or other 14th F
1.700 Armia (post-trade 50% retention)

Top Additional prospects developing in AHL, Junior, College or Europe
23 yo Jakub Dobes
23 yo Frederik Dichow
21 yo Riley Kidney
20 yo Lane Hutson
20 yo Vinzenz Rohrer
20 yo Cedrick Guindon
19 yo 2023 Montreal 1st (very possibly already on team)
19 yo 2023 Florida 1st (possibly already on team)
19 yo 2023 additional late 1st from trading Edmundson at 2023 TDL
18 yo 2024 Montreal 1st
18 yo 2024 Calgary 1st (likely year that works out to)
18 yo 2024 additional 1st from trading Anderson at or just before the 2024 draft
18 yo 2024 additional 1st from trading Dvorak at or just before the 2024 draft

Additional B prospects (one or two might pleasantly surprise us)
20 yo Adam Engstrom
21 yo Oliver Kapanen
21 yo Daniil Sobolev
22 yo Luke Tuch
22 yo William Trudeau
22 yo Jan Mysak
22 yo Jared Davidson
23 yo Jayden Struble
23 yo Frederik Dichow
23 yo Xavier Simoneau

CAP HIT OF THIS TEAM = $66.060M excluding Price
EXPECTED CAP 2024-25 = $86.800M
CAP ROOM to fill holes if some prospects do not pan out = $20.740M

I'm even more sure now that there is no reason this team cannot compete in 2024-25 given the cap space they will have. In addition, the SEVEN first round picks in the next two drafts should ensure that the compete window is very long.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

No elite talent to win a cup imo. Suzuki is a perfect 1B shooting at a career high. Guhle is still a rookie and the extent of his offensive abilities remains to be seen. Dach has impressed but I'm not fully sold just yet. No Mackinnon, Point, Malkin, Hedman level talent yet and you need that to win cups.

Alas good enough to make the playoffs but not win a cup is no man's land for me.

Suzuki is greater than Point and it’s not close.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Molson has already agreed to a multi year rebuild or Hughes would not have agreed to be GM.

Rebuild is well underway!

Pacioretty for Suzuki,
Lehkonen for Barron and 2023 second
Chiarot for 2023 first plus prospect
Toffoli for Heineman and Mesar ,
Kulak for 2nd (Hutson),
Petry for Matheson
Cap space for Monahan and a 1st
Great picks at 15 OA in 2019 and 16 OA in 2020 already on team and making impressions
1st overall 2022 pick is on team and contributing

 

[BenchBrawl]

No elite talent to win a cup imo. Suzuki is a perfect 1B shooting at a career high. Guhle is still a rookie and the extent of his offensive abilities remains to be seen. Dach has impressed but I'm not fully sold just yet. No Mackinnon, Point, Malkin, Hedman level talent yet and you need that to win cups.

Alas good enough to make the playoffs but not win a cup is no man's land for me.

You have a point.

 

[WeThreeKings]

With the 6th highest shooting% coming into tonight, and a save% that is higher than anticipated, is this team not already be in the midst of a PDO bender?

Yes we are, that's what I was trying to convey.

 

[ReHabs]

It is not a sure thing that if we do not draft top-5 that we cannot jumpstart a competitive window.

We are ignoring the HUGE capspace benefit of over $20M we could easily have in 2024-25. That can buy talent!

Right now, we would draft 12th and 13th in 2023, but I expect some movement and that we end up around 8th and 16th.

To compete in 2024-2025, with realistic expectation of making playoffs and maybe winning a round or two if things go very well:

GOAL 1A/1B
4.500 Starter (maybe Montembeault)
3.850 Allen (if not traded due to another goalie being ready)

DEFENCE
0.863 Guhle
3.600 Barron (extend in 2024)
4.875 Matheson
0.897 Mailloux
2.500 Xhekaj (extend in 2024)
1.500 Harris (extend in 2023)
0.767 Kovacevic
1.750 Savard (post-trade 50% retention)

LINE 1
7.875 Suzuki
7.500 Caufield (extend in 2023)
0.950 Slafkovsky

LINE 2
5.000 Monahan (RE-SIGNED - 2nd year of three)
3.363 Dach
0.874 Farrell

LINE 3
0.917 Beck
0.950 Mesar
0.898 Heineman

LINE 4
1.700 Evans
6.500 Gallagher
0.857 Roy or other

Extra Forwards
1.100 Pitlick or Ylonen or RHP or other 13th F
0.775 Pezzetta or other 14th F
1.700 Armia (post-trade 50% retention)

Top Additional prospects developing in AHL, Junior, College or Europe
23 yo Jakub Dobes
23 yo Frederik Dichow
21 yo Riley Kidney
20 yo Lane Hutson
20 yo Vinzenz Rohrer
20 yo Cedrick Guindon
19 yo 2023 Montreal 1st (very possibly already on team)
19 yo 2023 Florida 1st (possibly already on team)
19 yo 2023 additional late 1st from trading Edmundson at 2023 TDL
18 yo 2024 Montreal 1st
18 yo 2024 Calgary 1st (likely year that works out to)
18 yo 2024 additional 1st from trading Anderson at or just before the 2024 draft
18 yo 2024 additional 1st from trading Dvorak at or just before the 2024 draft

Additional B prospects (one or two might pleasantly surprise us)
20 yo Adam Engstrom
21 yo Oliver Kapanen
21 yo Daniil Sobolev
22 yo Luke Tuch
22 yo William Trudeau
22 yo Jan Mysak
22 yo Jared Davidson
23 yo Jayden Struble
23 yo Frederik Dichow
23 yo Xavier Simoneau

CAP HIT OF THIS TEAM = $66.060M excluding Price
EXPECTED CAP 2024-25 = $86.800M
CAP ROOM to fill holes if some prospects do not pan out = $20.740M

I'm even more sure now that there is no reason this team cannot compete in 2024-25 given the cap space they will have. In addition, the SEVEN first round picks in the next two drafts should ensure that the compete window is very long.

Very thorough response thank you.

Putting aside the assumptions, etc. If I'm not mistaken you also think the 23-24 season will be a non-competitive season. Which is my point... we can't get out of Lose Mode after this upcoming draft, we likely have another bad season up ahead in 23-24. To me, it's rather discouraging to have a combined c. 250 games of rooting for the Habs to lose with uncertain gains.

Sucks, but it's correct. Maybe Slaf can become something actually high-end, but is more likely he busts than becomes a stud.

Hughes needs to trade players away right now. I get there isn't many. Monahan is great and a great locker room guy and everything, but the goal isn't who can make the best locker room.

I guess there isn't much room cap wise from some teams and maybe even at 50% teams can't afford for Monahan, but if a team offers a 1st today you trade him today. Get the assets and make the team worse as soon as possible.

Same with Edmundson, you get a solid return, deal him.

I don't know what HuGo are thinking with regards to Monahan and Edmunson. Maybe it's too early to pull the trigger and induce extra losses. But I can't see the harm of giving Barron and whoever would replace Monahan more reps. If it's good for Slaf to play at the NHL level, it's good for more mature players too no?

 

[Sorinth]

On paper it’s unlikely that the team will finish in the bottom 5.

Good thing the game isn’t played on paper and that we’ve seen improbable things happen through the years.

I doubt the team will fall that much, young players bring too much energy right now and they believe they can win games (look how many times they came back while trailing), but we’ve seen better teams go on 5-6 games losing streak. Especially after winning a lot of games they should have lost, they are bound to lose games they should win. They will play better team in the next 2/3 of the season.

Injuries are starting to pile up (Savard, Monahan, Gallagher and Hoffman), goaltenders are coming back to earth (Allen regained some form should be average or better for the reminder, but you have to expect Montembeault to be worse than average), the offense runs through one line (as much as they impress me most games, at one point they won’t win games if secondary scoring doesn’t set in) and the defense is not doing great (Guhle is great, other rookies are having good and bad moments and veterans seem lost on the ice).

I doubt they finish bottom 3 (Ducks are horrendous and they started like we did last year, Chicago sold most of what they had and Arizona is fighting but they lack talent), but 4th/5th/6th is up in the air.

It's of course possible it's just unlikely at this point because not only do we have to have that big losing streak, we would have to avoid a big winning streak that would cancel it out (Which often happens near the end of the season when good teams take it easier against bad teams), and on top of that the teams we want to "catch" have to avoid their own losing streaks. It's why even though point wise it's not a lot it's still quite difficult.

I would also mention that some good things can happen too, Slafkovsky is responding well to his increased ice time, so he might provide us depth scoring. Guys like Armia and Evans will probably pick up their production at some point, etc...

 

[26Mats]

We will have 3 first round picks in this draft. So yeah it sucks we are gonna have a PDO bender that puts us out of the top 7 but the Ducks didn't pick top 10 in 03 but left with Getzlaf and Perry. We just have to make the right picks here and there's plenty of options.

How are we getting the 3rd?

 

[26Mats]

Great night for the tank.

- Sharks and nucks go to ot, so both get points, nucks with the 2 points so now only 1point behind us.

- Rangers beat Vegas & Capitals win (DET, NYR, NYI, Caps and Panthers should compete for the final 2 playoff spots so we need Florida to be surpassed by 2 of NYR, NYI, Caps, DET).

- Flames beat the wild, move 1 point ahead of us.

- Sabres beat jackets, good that sabres get 2 points, bad that it didn't go to ot.

The ugly: coyotes got smoked by the oil.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Kinda surprise to see the ducks playing so badly. I has sure it will be Blackhawks, , Coyotes and Sharks in the bottom 3. Did not see them in the bottom. Ducks should be around #5-8.

I've seen this each and every season. Some teams rise, some fall and some obvious ones like the Coyotes and Blackhawks are who we thought they were.

Heading into last year, Habs to me was a bubble team.... Started the season terribly like the Ducks and it was a hole we couldn't get out of and injuries piled up. In season momentum/confidence is a huge factor.

Heading into this season, I did not see "guaranteed" bottom 5. What I saw and predicted was MSL winning % from Feb 10th to end of season. Something around that and I believe it was 0.432% if I remember correctly. After this start, I'm going to say we finish 0.450 - 0.5 range. Hoping for the lowest pick possible but my gut tells me get something like the 7th or 8th pick.

 

[Habs Halifax]

We will have 3 first round picks in this draft. So yeah it sucks we are gonna have a PDO bender that puts us out of the top 7 but the Ducks didn't pick top 10 in 03 but left with Getzlaf and Perry. We just have to make the right picks here and there's plenty of options.

100% agree on the bold part. Fans need to remember that we got Caufield and Guhle from 10-20 range. Scouting and Drafting is very important. There is talent to draft and they need to do their homework. Be prepared for all options on draft day.

Where is the 3rd 1st rounding coming from? Monahan or Eddy?

 

[BLONG7]

100% agree on the bold part. Fans need to remember that we got Caufield and Guhle from 10-20 range. Scouting and Drafting is very important. There is talent to draft and they need to do their homework. Be prepared for all options on draft day.

Where is the 3rd 1st rounding coming from? Monahan or Eddy?

Monahan...............no way we get a 1st for Eddy.
Having 3 in the 1st round next year is a great thing!!