I think the worst case is the Patriots pick 5th. You're talking about drafting Daniels, Bowers, Nabers or one of the tackles then. Don't think the Patriots beat the Chiefs, resurgent Broncos on the road or the Bills on the road. If they beat the Jets and end with 4 wins then you probably need other teams to win with tough schedules to win a game to pick top 3.
Jets and Commanders still have to play each other and so do the Bears and Cardinals. If i understand the tiebreakers right now if the Patriots win one game, the Giants, Commanders, Bears and Titans all lose out then the top 5 would go. Bears, Bears, Giants, Patriots and Commanders.
If the Patriots win one game and the Cardinals, Jets, Titans and Giants all lose out then the top 5 is Bears, Cardinals, Jets, Giants and Patriots.