Red Sox/MLB 2023 Regular Season IV - 71 games to go - 119-43 still possible
- Thread starter Fenway
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Gotta love when other players take up the slack.
I said a while back that Casas has elevated himself from the could be sent down territory. My hope is we see an uptick in power the rest of the year. It's not like they have any other options to replace him.
McGarnagle
Yes.
- Aug 5, 2017
- 30,426
- 41,794
Luis Arraez went 5-for-5 tonight, bringing his average to .400
I am all in on this player. I am sure the dorks will throw out some advanced metrics that say he isn't that good. But I like to see good hitters. A true throwback who can hit for high average is very cool to me.
GatorMike
Registered User
This dork would probably put Arraez in his top 3 for NL MVP at the moment.
1B and 2B eligibility is gas
All 3 phases show up at the same time tonight and they win a beautiful game!
LouJersey
Registered User
Mr Cartmenez
Registered User
Seems like the Red Sox suddenly do have a sneaky good rotation.
1. James Paxton has been flat out pitching like an ace (which I didn't expect at all).
2. Whitlock, Bello and Houck - all 3 pretty much spot similar numbers in terms of FIP and xFIP. Very solid. I think they are here to stay and cannot be taken out of the rotation.
3. Kutter is more than holding his own. His K/9, BB/9, FIP and xFIP stats are all better than the ones of the aforementioned young pitchers. It's skewed a bit by multiple relieve outings and less starts.
4. x-factor Chris Sale despite struggling in April got his (x)FIP down to mid 3's before getting hurt again.
Most pitching metrics have them in the mid range in the league, but due to injuries at the beginning of the season, I can see upside for them to get into the top 10 range.
I am obviously glad that they are making progress, but it would be a shame if they thought they were in at the deadline, just to fall out afterwards like last year. I can only imagine how good of a package a Paxton would return. If they were to trade him, I'd be eyeing at least a top 50 prospect in baseball. Suitors: Rangers, Reds, Angels
1. James Paxton has been flat out pitching like an ace (which I didn't expect at all).
2. Whitlock, Bello and Houck - all 3 pretty much spot similar numbers in terms of FIP and xFIP. Very solid. I think they are here to stay and cannot be taken out of the rotation.
3. Kutter is more than holding his own. His K/9, BB/9, FIP and xFIP stats are all better than the ones of the aforementioned young pitchers. It's skewed a bit by multiple relieve outings and less starts.
4. x-factor Chris Sale despite struggling in April got his (x)FIP down to mid 3's before getting hurt again.
Most pitching metrics have them in the mid range in the league, but due to injuries at the beginning of the season, I can see upside for them to get into the top 10 range.
I am obviously glad that they are making progress, but it would be a shame if they thought they were in at the deadline, just to fall out afterwards like last year. I can only imagine how good of a package a Paxton would return. If they were to trade him, I'd be eyeing at least a top 50 prospect in baseball. Suitors: Rangers, Reds, Angels
KrejciMVP
Registered User
Is it though?
I was actually thinking the same thing last night. If they hang around or make any type of push it will be on the heels of the starting rotation.
Yes, the man who has leapfrogged Kike up to a -0.3 WAR. Now tied with the immortal Reese McGuire. I mean as long as we're playing this game where "haters" need to be called out every time Casas gets on base.
With all that said I will reiterate that I am fine with where Casas is right now. My only hope is we see some more power the 2nd half of the year. If we see an uptick there I will be happy.
Dennis Bonvie
Registered User
Sox win big despite Devers and Yoshida.
Paxton looks like an ace. Why not keep him?
Casas with 2 rockets! Maybe its a good sign when he doesn't walk.
Bottom 3 in the lineup scored 7 of the 9 runs.
It won't happen, but Sox could start a lineup tonight with five .300 hitters:
Duvall .323
Reyes .308
Verdugo .303
Yoshida .302
Duran .300
Paxton looks like an ace. Why not keep him?
Casas with 2 rockets! Maybe its a good sign when he doesn't walk.
Bottom 3 in the lineup scored 7 of the 9 runs.
It won't happen, but Sox could start a lineup tonight with five .300 hitters:
Duvall .323
Reyes .308
Verdugo .303
Yoshida .302
Duran .300
GatorMike
Registered User
As of this morning, they're 1.5 games out of the 3rd Wild Card spot. The Angels, Yankees, Astros, Blue Jays, and Red Sox are separated by 2.5 games.
Fangraphs gives them a 26.2% chance to make the playoffs. Last year at the deadline, they were just under 20%.
BruinsFanSince94
The Perfect Fan ™
Remember that we need to be slaves to the scoreboard. Sox are 1.5 GB of a WC spot. 38-35 currently. The teams they are competing with:
BAL: 44-27 / +5.5 WCGB
LAA: 41-33 / +1.0 WCGB
NYY: 39-33 / - WCGB
_______________________
HOU: 39-34 / 0.5 WCGB
TOR: 39-35 / 1.0 WCGB
BOS: 38-35 / 1.5 WCGB
Sox are in the hunt. They're being competitive. I just can't be one of those "fans" that is hoping they fall off to sell. It's just a bizarre stance to take.
For June, which was considered a big month for the team, they are 10-8 with 10 games remaining.
MIN (36-37) = 3 Games
CHW (31-43) = 3 Games
MIA (42-31) = 3 Games
TOR (39-35) = 1 Game (Rest of the series starts in July)
Need to take the MIN and Chicago series. 7-3 would go a long way here. It would put the Red Sox at 17-11 for June and 45-38 total.
BAL: 44-27 / +5.5 WCGB
LAA: 41-33 / +1.0 WCGB
NYY: 39-33 / - WCGB
_______________________
HOU: 39-34 / 0.5 WCGB
TOR: 39-35 / 1.0 WCGB
BOS: 38-35 / 1.5 WCGB
Sox are in the hunt. They're being competitive. I just can't be one of those "fans" that is hoping they fall off to sell. It's just a bizarre stance to take.
For June, which was considered a big month for the team, they are 10-8 with 10 games remaining.
MIN (36-37) = 3 Games
CHW (31-43) = 3 Games
MIA (42-31) = 3 Games
TOR (39-35) = 1 Game (Rest of the series starts in July)
Need to take the MIN and Chicago series. 7-3 would go a long way here. It would put the Red Sox at 17-11 for June and 45-38 total.
McGarnagle
Yes.
- Aug 5, 2017
- 30,426
- 41,794
At this point I'm not going to try to speculate because this team is so unpredictable. Every time I throw in the towel, they break off 6 wins in a row. Every time I start to buy in and speculate on how they have a favorable schedule, they get swept by a bad team.
So I'm just going to watch and enjoy.
So I'm just going to watch and enjoy.
quietbruinfan
Salt and light
I still want to fire Bloom, and let him comb Fangraphs for suitable waiver wire utility infielders.
Dennis Bonvie
Registered User
BruinsFanSince94
The Perfect Fan ™
I'd love a big return for Paxton, if they were to trade him. Are they getting what you're hoping for though? "At least a Top 50 prospect". I kind of wanted to look into it a bit. I'll expand it to Top 100. Below are the links I used as reference for rankings.
2023 Top 100 Prospects
Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin present their 2023 Top 100 list, with reports for each player.
Ranking all 30 farm systems
Many have come at the king. So far, they’ve still all missed. The Orioles retain the top spot in the MLB Pipeline Farm System Rankings for the fourth consecutive time between preseason and midseason lists. Since Pipeline began ranking systems in 2015, only one other organization has claimed No. 1
Farm System Rankings | FanGraphs Baseball
Texas Rangers: (7th per MLB, 19th per FG)
Top 100 = 5 prospects (MLB) -- 3 prospects (FG)
I'm not going to include Josh Jung here. He is one of the FG prospects still ranked based on what I'm using but he's not mentioned by MLB. Let's be real, we're not getting him for a few months of Paxton haha
1. Evan Carter -- 6th MLB / 67th FG -- AA -- OF
2. Owen White -- 46th MLB / 32nd FG -- AA -- RHP
3. Luisangel Acuña -- 53rd MLB / 104th FG -- AA -- SS/2B
4. Jack Leiter -- 73rd MLB / 111th FG -- AA -- RHP
5. Brock Porter -- 74th MLB / UnR FG -- A -- RHP
Obviously, a good team to target. They're 1st in the AL West. They are up on LAA and HOU by 5.0-6.5 games, respectively. They have a really deep farm system. Owen White, despite being in AA, was called up by TX and given 2 IP this season (optioned a few days ago back to AA). Not a great first appearance, but he's 23 and going from AA to MLB is always wild. It just goes to show how highly viewed he is as a prospect.
Texas pitching has been excellent this season. Adding a Paxton would only strengthen that. They did lose DeGrom for the season though. Do they go all in? Is Paxton a pitcher you would consider acquiring to "go all in"?
Cincinnati Red: (5th per MLB, 2nd per FG)
Top 100 = 5 prospects (MLB) -- 5 prospects (FG)
1. Elly De La Cruz -- 3rd MLB / 6th FG -- MLB -- SS/3B
2. Noelvi Marte -- 20th MLB / 94th FG -- AA -- SS/3B
3. Edwin Arroyo -- 31st MLB / 52 FG -- A+ -- SS/2B
4. Cam Collier -- 51st MLB / 71st FG -- A -- 3B
5. Andrew Abbott -- 91st MLB / UnR FG -- MLB
HM. Spencer Steer -- UnR MLB / 47th FG -- MLB
Even deeper than TX for prospects, the Reds are battling with the Brewers as of right now. PIT and CHC are 3.0-3.5 back, but also are 3-4 games UNDER .500. So it feels like the Reds, who are rallying around the promotion of superstar (in the making) Elly De La Cruz, are the team to beat in the NL Central. Their pitching ranks for the NL:
ERA = 4.87 -- 14/15
WHIP = 1.44 -- 12/15
FIP = 4.58 -- 11/15
Definitely could use pitching. So Paxton makes sense here. I'd say the MLB guys are more than likely off the table for Paxton, EDLC is off the table for anyone. There's obvious value with their organization and if you could land one of their other Top 50 guys, that would be huge. They could dip into that middle infield depth to upgrade the staff.
LA Angels: (28th per MLB, 26th per FG)
Top 100 = 2 prospects (MLB) -- 3 prospects (FG)
1. Logan O'Hoppe -- 38th MLB / 51 FG -- MLB -- C
2. Edgar Quero -- 85th MLB / 80th FG -- AA -- C
3. Zach Neto -- UnR MLB / 60th FG -- MLB -- SS
Angels are the weakest of the teams mentioned, as we can see. 2/3 guys they have in their farm system are already in the MLB. As we know, they're battling everyone in the AL for a final WC spot. They're, more than likely, losing Ohtani this season. So are they a team who "goes all in" to try and win. Maybe that gets Ohtani to stay? A championship would more than make up for the sting of losing him. They're just not dealing from much here. No point moving the guys already on the MLB roster.
Mr Cartmenez
Registered User
While the Sox are only 1.5GB, they have to overtake not one, but 3 teams which are all better on paper. And many if not all of these teams will be aggressive buyers and for some of them reinforcements are on their way back. The Yankees for example are the better when fully healthy. The Angels are probably gonna make a hard push with their last hurrah of Ohtani in Anaheim. Orioles certainly have the ammo to make splashes as do the Rays.
I am still sticking by my 84-85 win prediction which I had made before the season started. That is fine, but certainly not enough to envision them being (strong) buyers. You could argue that standing pat is an option, but it clearly was the wrong decision last year. when they were in a similar situation as they are right now: In the middle of the AL standings and on pretty much any power ranking, it's far from being truly competitive.
Sticking to the long term plan may the smart thing to do. Trading Paxton and players like Duvall and Hernandez may not necessarily make them worse in the short term. When Sale comes back, he'd be Paxtons replacement. It's not a foregone conclusion that James keeps on pitching that great, let alone staying healthy all season. I'd rather let that be someone elses concern.
Very Good list.
It's obviously a dynamic process, if Paxton is having another 4-5 great starts before the deadline, he may return an even bigger package, but as of today, I'd say top 50 is probably reasonable. Remember: he's on a very cheap contract and affordable for basically any team (trying to avoid going over the tax threshold)
When I looked up the list earlier, I had my eyes set on White or maybe even Jack Leiter (still one of my favorite prospects going back to the draft year with Marcelo Mayer) from the Rangers or the catcher O'Hoppe from the Angels. The Reds also have some interesting prospects, but with Yorke and Mayer already in the system + the MIF-HS I'd take in the upcoming draft, I am not too keen on getting another MIF.
I think I'd preferably want an arm back, so Texas in that regard could be a good match. The Rangers are close to the 200m payroll mark and have several long term contracts for the future. Paxton for cheap and as a rental may come in handy for them.
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