2023 NHL Entry Draft

[SwiftyHab]

There is significant drop after the top 4

So all this has tor about finishing 5th is meaningless then?

 

[Vachon23]

So all this has tor about finishing 5th is meaningless then?

In my book there is an other drop after Smith/Benson so top 6 is still important

 

[SwiftyHab]

In my book there is an other drop after Smith/Benson so top 6 is still important

I’m not confident in this group taking Baby Bell Benson there.

 

[Vachon23]

I’m not confident in this group taking Baby Bell Benson there.

It 100% should be the pick if still available

 

[jaffy27]

Chicago is 100% tanking

Not the players

 

[WeThreeKings]

Quick question which I’m sure has been asked: is there a clear cut top 7 that makes finishing in 5th place desirable?

Or is there a drop off after the top 4?

There's a drop off after 1

Then there's a drop-off after 4, but it may start at 3 because Michkov is a wildcard.

I'd say there's a 5-7 group of Smith, Benson and Reinbacher.. then you're into a group from 8-12 that are pretty tightly knit.

Bedard
----------
Carlsson
Fantilli
Michkov
----------
Smith
Benson
Reinbacher
------------
Leonard
Yager
Moore
Sale
Dvorsky

 

[River Meadow]

There's a drop off after 1

Then there's a drop-off after 4, but it may start at 3 because Michkov is a wildcard.

I'd say there's a 5-7 group of Smith, Benson and Reinbacher.. then you're into a group from 8-12 that are pretty tightly knit.

Bedard
----------
Carlsson
Fantilli
Michkov
----------
Smith
Benson
Reinbacher
------------
Leonard
Yager
Moore
Sale
Dvorsky

It's a tiny little bit silly to say this stuff though.

Aside from maybe Bedard and Fantilli, the rest of the players is more or less a crapshoot....

And this gets proven draft after draft.

I totally get it though, and of course we're here to debate the players as they rank today, but someone like Sale or Yager or Moore or whomever could become some of the best player from this draft.

 

[jaffy27]

So all this has tor about finishing 5th is meaningless then?

It’s always been this way

Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson and Michkov were always in a class of there own.

I’d even say within that group, Bedard is in a class of HIS own.

Then ya, Smith and Benson….then the rest down to about 10.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

I think Cristall and Wood are my hot takes this year. The stats are just a little bit too much to overlook.

Comparing Cristall to Benson, Cristall's production is better, but it's just slightly better (0.15 ppg better) so I could understand people valuing Benson's motor etc. But I think that's a mistake.

I normally dislike the team strength argument, and I'm not using it to say that Benson is bad or is riding coat tails. I'm just saying some adjustment probably needs to be made. Winnipeg scored just under 55% more goals than Kelowna, 115 more goals. There's just no way that such a huge gap doesn't affect their respective point production. Cristall was in on 45% of Kelowna's goals, Benson was in on 30% of Winnipeg's. Cristall ended up scoring more goals in fewer games played, had more shots on goal in fewer games for a significantly higher shots/g. Too many indicators pointing to Cristall not just being a little bit better offensively, but significantly better.

About Matthew Wood, find me a more productive U18 NCAA player in the last 20 years. End of story.

Not a draft eligible watcher, but that's why I assume Wood could be their pick and why I think Wood goes top 10.

NHL teams want size and skill. Why not get two birds stoned at once.

 

[ginomini]

There are so many players like that in this draft where you can point to their production/previous production/skill set that should but isn't producing etc. that will make teams look silly for passing on them even though they all have a giant wart that is tough to look past.

I have prospects that I like more than others but I am not digging in too hard on the ones that I like or dismissing the ones that I like a little less.

People are taking ridiculous hardline stances with some of these kids when the reality is that NHL scouting lists in the top 20 (outside of the top 4) are going to vary more this year than any in recent memory imo. There are so many kids that could realistically go 20th or break into the top 10 that absolutes just aren't remotely reasonable this year when it comes to establishing rank in the 5-20 range.

This is very much on point. The draft has a very strong top 4, but its other strength is the lack of clear separation in the 5 to 20 range.

Think about how everyone was freaking out when Boston drafted Debrusk and Senyshyn, because Barzal and Connor were clearly, very clearly two top 10 talents remaining. This year its almost impossible to do that because there is no such clear separation.

 

[WeThreeKings]

It's a tiny little bit silly to say this stuff though.

Aside from maybe Bedard and Fantilli, the rest of the players is more or less a crapshoot....

And this gets proven draft after draft.

I totally get it though, and of course we're here to debate the players as they rank today, but someone like Sale or Yager or Moore or whomever could become some of the best player from this draft.

I don't think it's necessarily silly to say that. All we can do is make our determinations based on the data we have today and what we've seen to date. Of course they are teenagers with development curves, who will go into different development environments, with different teams with different plans, and there's injuries, opportunities, etc. The top 10 of any draft is never the top 10 in the draft, we know that, but we can't just arbitrarily pick someone to surprise like Pastrnak and throw them into the top 10.

2nd point, Carlsson belongs in that conversation and may actually be having a more impressive season/play-offs than Fantilli did. But even as we've seen, there's an element of risk for any pick, not many saw Lafreniere struggling as badly as he has.

Sale, Yager or Moore could become the best player from this draft. So could Petteri Vesterheim who I have in the 3rd round.

 

[River Meadow]

I don't think it's necessarily silly to say that. All we can do is make our determinations based on the data we have today and what we've seen to date. Of course they are teenagers with development curves, who will go into different development environments, with different teams with different plans, and there's injuries, opportunities, etc. The top 10 of any draft is never the top 10 in the draft, we know that, but we can't just arbitrarily pick someone to surprise like Pastrnak and throw them into the top 10.

2nd point, Carlsson belongs in that conversation and may actually be having a more impressive season/play-offs than Fantilli did. But even as we've seen, there's an element of risk for any pick, not many saw Lafreniere struggling as badly as he has.

Sale, Yager or Moore could become the best player from this draft. So could Petteri Vesterheim who I have in the 3rd round.

Yeah, good points, now all that said... I definitely agree and think Bedard is in a league of his own (obviously).

 

[ginomini]

I don't think it's necessarily silly to say that. All we can do is make our determinations based on the data we have today and what we've seen to date. Of course they are teenagers with development curves, who will go into different development environments, with different teams with different plans, and there's injuries, opportunities, etc. The top 10 of any draft is never the top 10 in the draft, we know that, but we can't just arbitrarily pick someone to surprise like Pastrnak and throw them into the top 10.

2nd point, Carlsson belongs in that conversation and may actually be having a more impressive season/play-offs than Fantilli did. But even as we've seen, there's an element of risk for any pick, not many saw Lafreniere struggling as badly as he has.

Sale, Yager or Moore could become the best player from this draft. So could Petteri Vesterheim who I have in the 3rd round.

Its definetely not silly, its exactly what all NHL teams are doing.

 

[McGees]

I've made my decision at 5 or 6.

I want Will Smith.

Will Smith it is…

 

[River Meadow]

Will Smith it is…

Let's get jiggy wit it

LFGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG

Welcome to Montreal Big Willie Style

 

[Mrb1p]

I think Cristall and Wood are my hot takes this year. The stats are just a little bit too much to overlook.

Comparing Cristall to Benson, Cristall's production is better, but it's just slightly better (0.15 ppg better) so I could understand people valuing Benson's motor etc. But I think that's a mistake.

I normally dislike the team strength argument, and I'm not using it to say that Benson is bad or is riding coat tails. I'm just saying some adjustment probably needs to be made. Winnipeg scored just under 55% more goals than Kelowna, 115 more goals. There's just no way that such a huge gap doesn't affect their respective point production. Cristall was in on 45% of Kelowna's goals, Benson was in on 30% of Winnipeg's. Cristall ended up scoring more goals in fewer games played, had more shots on goal in fewer games for a significantly higher shots/g. Too many indicators pointing to Cristall not just being a little bit better offensively, but significantly better.

About Matthew Wood, find me a more productive U18 NCAA player in the last 20 years. End of story.

Theyre also my Hot takes.

On benson/Cristall, I dont think its fair to say Benson is carried, as Ive seen him as the best player on his team, but there's definitely a McDrai dynamic going on with Savoie, and even Geekie.

Cristall doesn't have that, but on the other hand, Andrew is turned up to 11 offensively, he plays the same way Kane plays, all offense, very little care about defense (Though, I have seen him pull off great defensive reads, which is another argument altogether.) Compared to to Benson who plays a little bit deeper in his zone and has more pro moments.

Cristall also just has the better raw skillset. Hes a better goalscorer, dangler, skater and probably passer than Benson.

Also people misread their skating. Cristall can't create separation, yet but he 100% will. He has waterbug feet., just no lowerbody power. Wood has good power in his stride but doesnt benefit from edges, hes doubling up a lot on his stances and that makes him bit down, a lot. I think we should be clear that Wood will never be Josh Anderson, but theres a path for him where hes a handful to handle because of his size, hands, reach and power.

Cristall is the same story as Point, their skating and skillset looks very similar in junior, I guess Point may have been less careless at times.

 

[BergevinBurner]

If management has Benson/Smith in their own tier after the top 4 then staying 5th last would be huge.

At 5th last we'd have an 86.1% chance of picking top 6, but at 6th last we'd only have a 49.5% chance.

 

[jrom]

Really do hope we somehow get the 2nd pick. My brain can’t even process the idea of getting Bedard so currently my dream is to pick second and enjoy the unhealthy debates of Fantilli vs Carlsson this board will surely have.

You forgot “does he play C or Wing in the NHL”, can’t forget the classics.

 

[HuGort]

Danielson reminds me of Beck last year. Good defense, offense so-so. Make a good pick with our second rounder

 

[jaffy27]

I’m not confident in this group taking Baby Bell Benson there.

Benson or Reinbacher…..at 6 I’m happy with either one.

Leaning more Benson though

 

[montreal]

I have prospects that I like more than others but I am not digging in too hard on the ones that I like or dismissing the ones that I like a little less.

People are taking ridiculous hardline stances with some of these kids when the reality is that NHL scouting lists in the top 20 (outside of the top 4) are going to vary more this year than any in recent memory imo. There are so many kids that could realistically go 20th or break into the top 10 that absolutes just aren't remotely reasonable this year when it comes to establishing rank in the 5-20 range.

I agree with this 100% and not just for this draft but with any draft and even prospects in general. Opinions should change but you see most posters just seem to repeat the same thing and then it just becomes a pissing match of I know more then you or how many games did you see, etc... It's very boring to read through.

 

[NotProkofievian]

There are so many players like that in this draft where you can point to their production/previous production/skill set that should but isn't producing etc. that will make teams look silly for passing on them even though they all have a giant wart that is tough to look past.

I have prospects that I like more than others but I am not digging in too hard on the ones that I like or dismissing the ones that I like a little less.

People are taking ridiculous hardline stances with some of these kids when the reality is that NHL scouting lists in the top 20 (outside of the top 4) are going to vary more this year than any in recent memory imo. There are so many kids that could realistically go 20th or break into the top 10 that absolutes just aren't remotely reasonable this year when it comes to establishing rank in the 5-20 range.

Definitely. I feel like Nate Danielson is going to be a player, for example.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Definitely. I feel like Nate Danielson is going to be a player, for example.

Some people really like Danielson for his complete game and balanced package while others focus on him being one of the oldest kids in the draft and feel he is a high floor low ceiling player. I like him but probably not as much with our pick, if he is around with Florida's pick then I could really get behind that. That being said it is still possible that he becomes one of the best players in the draft and may be an absolute steel with the Florida pick.

I feel like I am going to be ok with whoever HuGo takes with our two first rounders as there are so many players that you can easily find justification for taking that high.

 

[River Meadow]

Definitely. I feel like Nate Danielson is going to be a player, for example.

Sounds like a bust judging by name only.

 

[Saxon]

Sounds like a bust judging by name only.

The karate kid?