2023 NHL Entry Draft

[Mrb1p]

36 goals in 45 games is no slouch.

The guy we all wanted 1st overall had 32 in 62 games and he was apparently a terrific shooter.

Also has .22 less ppg
"The guy we all wanted" is a terrific shooter but one of the main criticism was his production.
The other criticism is that he was weak af and underdeveloped physically.

Bad example. Nobody ever claimed Barlow wasnt a great junior player.

 

[Jaynki]

The other criticism is that he was weak af and underdeveloped physically.

Isnt it the opposite?

People explained his stellar 15 years old by being developped like an 18 years old. Same discourse we are hearing with Barlow.

 

[NotProkofievian]

36 goals in 45 games is no slouch.

The guy we all wanted 1st overall had 32 in 62 games and he was apparently a terrific shooter.

That's what I don't get. My model will rank him highly, like, really highly, because he's producing so much but I can just feel the hit to the model's R^2 from here.

 

[Playmaker09]

Also has .22 less ppg
"The guy we all wanted" is a terrific shooter but one of the main criticism was his production.
The other criticism is that he was weak af and underdeveloped physically.

Bad example. Nobody ever claimed Barlow wasnt a great junior player.

1.49 to 1.45, where's this .22 coming from?

 

[JC Superstar]

Why does Hughes want that 3rd 1st-rounder?

If acquired, WTK would like to see it used on a goalie (Hrabal or Bjarnason) and I think that’s a good idea.

I see it as a cherry on top if the Lotto allows the first two picks to break Habs’ way in stellar or near-stellar fashion.

But why does Hughes want it?

Provides options for sure. Could be a trade chip pre-draft or a band-aid if you will, if the Lotto goes Bettman’s way (wink icon).

Maybe it’s part of a RD acquisition.

Just wondering if there are gut feelings about a specific player target or positions among our posters.

I’m just happy Hughes seems determined to go get it.

Early 20's that's where RHD are likely to go. I'd like Reinbacher personnaly.

Late 20's, that's where the longshots are. I do like Ethan Gauthier; like Roy, he was a first OA draft choice who is late coming to the party.

 

[Mrb1p]

1.49 to 1.45, where's this .22 coming from?

I honestly dont know

Early 20's that's where RHD are likely to go. I'd like Reinbacher personnaly.

Late 20's, that's where the longshots are. I do like Ethan Gauthier; like Roy, he was a first OA draft choice who is late coming to the party.

Reinbacher is going top 10.

Isnt it the opposite?

People explained his stellar 15 years old by being developped like an 18 years old. Same discourse we are hearing with Barlow.

Then these people were wrong. Wright is weak af and his first step is slow, the reason why I still had him first (Neck and neck with Nemec and Jiricek), is that there's still tremendous growth possible in his game. What happens to Barlow when he reaches the NHL? Hes a mid range 2nd line, maybe a Bo Horvat?

 

[WeThreeKings]

That's what I don't get. My model will rank him highly, like, really highly, because he's producing so much but I can just feel the hit to the model's R^2 from here.

If this was his D+1 or D+2, how would that impact your model?

I know we can't pick and choose but I'm not evaluating him as a draft year since he clearly is more physically evolved than who he plays against.

 

[NotProkofievian]

If this was his D+1 or D+2, how would that impact your model?

I know we can't pick and choose but I'm not evaluating him as a draft year since he clearly is more physically evolved than who he plays against.

The production would be worth less, for sure.

 

[WeThreeKings]

The production would be worth less, for sure.

The other thing for me is like.. is the way he's scoring, at the clip he's scoring, translatable to the NHL?

Like I don't see his shot tool as particularly high end.

 

[Schooner Guy]

Then these people were wrong. Wright is weak af and his first step is slow, the reason why I still had him first (Neck and neck with Nemec and Jiricek), is that there's still tremendous growth possible in his game. What happens to Barlow when he reaches the NHL? Hes a mid range 2nd line, maybe a Bo Horvat?

Wright has been almost the same size for a few years. It was a noted concern by many regarding his lack of progress. Not sure how you could conclude that he still has tremendous growth left in his game but everyone else is wrong.

 

[NotProkofievian]

The other thing for me is like.. is the way he's scoring, at the clip he's scoring, translatable to the NHL?

Like I don't see his shot tool as particularly high end.

His shot is the thing I like most about him. He can grip it and rip it, and OHL tenders just can't deal. Can't think of a comparable player for him in the NHL though.

 

[The Nightman]

Welcome to the clan, I've been expecting you.

I stumbled on Luke Hughes' draft video the other day and Gorton was on the panel as an analyst. Near the end of the clip he speaks about how young the Hughes brothers look and he says that means there's room for growth. He then goes on to say "As a general manager you don't want a guy with a full beard showing up at your table" (3:51 in the video).

Not so sure what that means for 32 y/o looking Barlow.

 

[SOLR]

His shot is the thing I like most about him. He can grip it and rip it, and OHL tenders just can't deal. Can't think of a comparable player for him in the NHL though.

Barlow scores a lot like Ovechkin (from the same spots).

Ok. before all of you guys jump on me - HE'S NOT OVECHKIN.

That's why I think his game is pretty translatable....and most importantly, has BECOME more translatable over time. He no longer has to think about the physicality; he's way ahead on that; he's a pro now (I think he plays in the NHL next year, that's another reason potentially for us to get him). You guys know I've presented the argument about downgrading prospects' rankings that have physicality in juniors because it doesn't always scale. I feel the same here. So I'm not ranking Barlow top 10 (13-15), despite the fact that I think he can score 40 in his prime. It's just that he might be somewhere between Anderson and Benn.

 

[Jaynki]

If this was his D+1 or D+2, how would that impact your model?

I know we can't pick and choose but I'm not evaluating him as a draft year since he clearly is more physically evolved than who he plays against.

I understand the point that there is probably less growing in his case. I would just take all of this with a grain of salt because he remains a seventeen years old. What if it is strong generics?

A physically dominant goal scorer is worth a lot of penny in the NHL.

 

[Jaynki]

Then these people were wrong. Wright is weak af and his first step is slow, the reason why I still had him first (Neck and neck with Nemec and Jiricek), is that there's still tremendous growth possible in his game. What happens to Barlow when he reaches the NHL? Hes a mid range 2nd line, maybe a Bo Horvat?

I don't know what happens to Barlow when he reaches the NHL. Like every other prospect he has his red flag and there is always the opportunity cost of selecting him over another player.

I personnally believe that there is growth possible in every seventeen years old even if they look older than their peers. Its a dangerous trap to downgrade a player performance because he might have grown faster than his peer. As dangerous as not drafting Lane Hutson because he was small.

Im not sure i would be ready to say his ceiling his mid range 2nd liner.

 

[rahad]

Who wouldn't want another first in this years draft? There are like 20 "top 10" guys already and it's still very early. Traditionally some of the D and the Euro's make a push starting around now... it's a good year to have an extra pick (and an early 2nd)

If this draft is as deep as the 2015. We need another first round pick. Player like Brock Boeser or Travis Konecny have been drafted around #23-24 in the 2015 draft.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I understand the point that there is probably less growing in his case. I would just take all of this with a grain of salt because he remains a seventeen years old. What if it is strong generics?

A physically dominant goal scorer is worth a lot of penny in the NHL.

I'm still evaluating but I just don't know if even he's gonna be a physically dominant goal scorer.

It's not like he's gonna be that big in the context of the NHL.
And I don't know if his goal scoring tools are more than above average at the NHL level.. which is more 25 goals than it is 30.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Barlow scores a lot like Ovechkin (from the same spots).

Ok. before all of you guys jump on me - HE'S NOT OVECHKIN.

That's why I think his game is pretty translatable....and most importantly, has BECOME more translatable over time. He no longer has to think about the physicality; he's way ahead on that; he's a pro now (I think he plays in the NHL next year, that's another reason potentially for us to get him). You guys know I've presented the argument about downgrading prospects' rankings that have physicality in juniors because it doesn't always scale. I feel the same here. So I'm not ranking Barlow top 10 (13-15), despite the fact that I think he can score 40 in his prime. It's just that he might be somewhere between Anderson and Benn.

Another statistical similarity is with Jason Robertson. He also shoots as much as Robertson did, and has a similar share of his team's game winners as Jason did (37%, if you can believe that).

 

[WeThreeKings]

Another statistical similarity is with Jason Robertson. He also shoots as much as Robertson did, and has a similar share of his team's game winners as Jason did (37%, if you can believe that).

I'll take Barlow where Robertson was taken

 

[Frozenice]

1.49 to 1.45, where's this .22 coming from?

2 + 2 = 5 and carry the 1. New Math isn’t that complicated, you’re just being difficult.

 

[SOLR]

I stumbled on Luke Hughes' draft video the other day and Gorton was on the panel as an analyst. Near the end of the clip he speaks about how young the Hughes brothers look and he says that means there's room for growth. He then goes on to say "As a general manager you don't want a guy with a full beard showing up at your table" (3:51 in the video).

Not so sure what that means for 32 y/o looking Barlow.

This is BS. pardon my french.

Not based in science in any way, shape or form.

 

[Jaynki]

This is BS. pardon my french.

Not based in science in any way, shape or form.

Feels like a trap and teams could miss on a great player using this as an argument.

Similarly to Caufield(or Hutson) falling because they might not recreate what they did because they are too small. Jesus christ they are big time recordman and obvious superstar talent.

 

[Mrb1p]

Wright has been almost the same size for a few years. It was a noted concern by many regarding his lack of progress. Not sure how you could conclude that he still has tremendous growth left in his game but everyone else is wrong.

His size isn't going to change, but his speed and strength will. Theres the growth, if hes willing to work for it, which is something that was a concern for Wright (and his intensity and his entitled attitude) that I brought forth before even the scouts talked about it. At the end of the day though, without inside info, you can only go with what you know.

His shot is the thing I like most about him. He can grip it and rip it, and OHL tenders just can't deal. Can't think of a comparable player for him in the NHL though.

Id guess Meier is a close one in size, skating, build and playstyle.

The thing is that his shot selection is lacking and his wrist shot isn't anywhere near what Meiers is... So, I don't know.

This is BS. pardon my french.

Not based in science in any way, shape or form.

What do you mean its bs ?

 

[Frozenice]

The other thing for me is like.. is the way he's scoring, at the clip he's scoring, translatable to the NHL?

Like I don't see his shot tool as particularly high end.

He might be all you need to be a 3rd wheel on the Suzuki/ Caufield line. A lot of 1st lines work better with a player like that then other types, especially if the Habs want Dach as a 2nd line centre.

 

[SOLR]

His size isn't going to change, but his speed and strength will. Theres the growth, if hes willing to work for it, which is something that was a concern for Wright (and his intensity and his entitled attitude) that I brought forth before even the scouts talked about it. At the end of the day though, without inside info, you can only go with what you know.

"The appearance of a human being has an influence on their future potential" = scout BS