2023 NHL Entry Draft Discussion

[4Twenty]

HAHAHAHAHAHA

Don't look at the google ones, the athletic or the Tankathon one... this is why I never reply to you. Your opinions are just a bunch of jokes.

Yes I usually think your posts are dumb too and I generally just skip them but I Just wanted your sources so I knew what you were referring to.


Cheers.

 

[racerjoe]

Yes I usually think your posts are dumb too and I generally just skip them but I Just wanted your sources so I knew what you were referring to.


Cheers.

You don't skip my posts... you just don't directly respond to them and make passive aggressive comments because like this, if you disagree you find a made up way to discount them.

Best of luck to you.

 

[iceburg]

Seems like a little bit of a waste of energy to stress over the draft lottery odds between spots 5 and 10. Sure, the 5th slot is about roughly twice as likely to pick 1st overall but the odds are like 1 in 15 vs 1 in 30. Still a crapshoot.
The key is to not move out of the top 11 so there's still a chance at 1st overall.

 

[bandwagonesque]

Seems like a little bit of a waste of energy to stress over the draft lottery odds between spots 5 and 10. Sure, the 5th slot is about roughly twice as likely to pick 1st overall but the odds are like 1 in 15 vs 1 in 30. Still a crapshoot.
The key is to not move out of the top 11 so there's still a chance at 1st overall.

I think it's better to look at the odds of moving up to either 1 or 2. Fantilli or Carlsson would be huge additions to the team and Fantilli could likely play a useful role next season.

 

[Raistlin]

at this stage, its about positions. whether you get to pick a C, RHD, or a winger. If we keep sliding, there is no chance to pick a good prospect that also fills a positional void. the core of the team is young, there is no Doughty/Crosby/Kopitar t oworry about, finding that last core piece to grow with the team is crucial. that last core piece being a D means you need a few years to break him in, as there is no Sanderson/Jiricek/Seider/Edvinsson level guy, the closest comp is Reinbacher, who was within reach. if they fall out of 10, there is 0 chance he's on the board.

 

[iceburg]

I think it's better to look at the odds of moving up to either 1 or 2. Fantilli or Carlsson would be huge additions to the team and Fantilli could likely play a useful role next season.

Sure but the odds are still only twice as likely for a 1/2 at 5 vs 10 with the absolute less than 20% for the 5 position.
Don't get me wrong, better odds are better odds. I'm just saying the concern over position has to be put in the context of the low probability. Drance has been going on like it's an absolute disaster that they did't tank harder. IMO he's taking it way too seriously. To me it would be worse to have no chance at getting Bedard, Fantilli, or Carlsson..

 

[Raistlin]

Sure but the odds are still only twice as likely for a 1/2 at 5 vs 10 with the absolute less than 20% for the 5 position.
Don't get me wrong, better odds are better odds. I'm just saying the concern over position has to be put in the context of the low probability. Drance has been going on like it's an absolute disaster that they did't tank harder. IMO he's taking it way too seriously. To me it would be worse to have no chance at getting Bedard, Fantilli, or Carlsson..

I dont like Drance as a personality. I want to get that out of the way, but everything the guy says can be backed up by hard data. He will be wrong sometimes, as numbers and stats aren't absolute, you can bet he will be right more often than not though, this is suposed to be the year to seriously tank hard for your local boy. And yes, he is a serious guy, although his maniacal cackle hints otherwise. Most GMs target this draft for a reason, the guys here can alter the course of your franchise with these top 10 picks. Thats 10 shots at finding a core piece. If the canucks F this up and pick 11 when the hockey gods threw them a bone and gifted them an off season for Demko..... I just dont know.....

 

[bandwagonesque]

Sure but the odds are still only twice as likely for a 1/2 at 5 vs 10 with the absolute less than 20% for the 5 position.
Don't get me wrong, better odds are better odds. I'm just saying the concern over position has to be put in the context of the low probability. Drance has been going on like it's an absolute disaster that they did't tank harder. IMO he's taking it way too seriously. To me it would be worse to have no chance at getting Bedard, Fantilli, or Carlsson..

I don't think tanking is particularly easy or realistic in this team's position, but there is a massive difference in value between the 5 and 10 picks and it's largely due to increased odds to draft either 1 or 2. The increase isn't dramatic, but the superiority of the players is.

 

[me2]

I don't think tanking is particularly easy or realistic in this team's position, but there is a massive difference in value between the 5 and 10 picks and it's largely due to increased odds to draft either 1 or 2. The increase isn't dramatic, but the superiority of the players is.

Play Martin every game

 

[sting101]

Yes management should have done more to limit Demko's playing time on the basis of rehabbing correctly and could have asked Tocchet to try and roll 4 lines a little more but at the end of the day we still were pulling wins out of our asses here with 5 to 6 non NHLers in the lineup every night. Added to Myers Burroughs and Dries who are not really NHLers either on a good team.

We were unfortunately from an optics standpoint blessed/cursed with an abnormally soft travel and playing schedule the last 5-6weeks and our top guys Petey Hughes Miller Kuzmenko Demko have been winning the games.

McWard McDonagh Kravtsov Brisebois Wolanin Rathbone Juulsen Hirose Di Guiseppe Delia Silovs i mean that's a lot of fluff that mostly belongs in depth roles or in the AHL. Amen and Joshua playing way above 4th line minutes yet here we are.

As said above it just hurts to see the opportunity of 8-10 slip away if it does over a couple pts that could have been flubbed without any relevance on this year or next

 

[Hodgy]

Or you are overestimating it and it is backed up by multiple sites saying when we were 5th, we still projected to be 9th...

And yes the prioritized winning over a full tank, but I would say they prioritized setting everyone up for expectation for next season.

No, I don't think I am overestimating the effect of having Martin continue to play a lot of games, or not firing Boudreau, or not playing Petey and Hughes a ton. These are all pretty significant factors that could have led us to lose 5 additional games this year and thereby finishing around 5th.

 

[iceburg]

I dont like Drance as a personality. I want to get that out of the way, but everything the guy says can be backed up by hard data. He will be wrong sometimes, as numbers and stats aren't absolute, you can bet he will be right more often than not though, this is suposed to be the year to seriously tank hard for your local boy. And yes, he is a serious guy, although his maniacal cackle hints otherwise. Most GMs target this draft for a reason, the guys here can alter the course of your franchise with these top 10 picks. Thats 10 shots at finding a core piece. If the canucks F this up and pick 11 when the hockey gods threw them a bone and gifted them an off season for Demko..... I just dont know.....

My point exactly. If they don’t have a chance at #1, that’s bad. If they have odds between 5 and 8% depending on draft ranking that’s not worth quibbling over.
Drance is way over dramatizing the latter.

 

[iceburg]

I don't think tanking is particularly easy or realistic in this team's position, but there is a massive difference in value between the 5 and 10 picks and it's largely due to increased odds to draft either 1 or 2. The increase isn't dramatic, but the superiority of the players is.

Fair enough. If the odds were 5:1 vs 10:1 to win $10 I’d be more interested in just being in the game.
If the same odds were there to win $1,000,000 I’d be all over the better odds even if the chances were low.

Point taken.

 

[sting101]

Not that much difference in potential from 5-12 historically and in this draft to be top5-10 players from the draft down the road.

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

I wish the draft thread was about prospects.

Seeing teenagers lament the fact that we should have betrayed ourselves and broken our culture by sitting a number one goalie (who is a star) who is trying to get himself up to speed, dismayed Hughes and Pettersson who are developing into superstars by throttling their ice time down to play losers because 'muh picks', further cratered the trade value of all the assets we might want to move....

How can you be this myopic? Do you forget the human psychology/group psychology of sports? This isn't a bunch of 0's and 1's in an EA GM sim where it doesn't matter what the players 'think' and you can just restart if it doesn't work.

We weren't picking higher than 5th and damnnn did I want Benson. But we're just a far better team than the detritus beside us.

The Devils were appalling last year because of goaltending. We were appalling this year because of goaltending.

We won't suddenly be as good as they are, but we won't be sniffing at top 10 pick next year. If we pick 8th this year that's great, more likely it will be 9th or 10th.

 

[alternate]

No, I don't think I am overestimating the effect of having Martin continue to play a lot of games, or not firing Boudreau, or not playing Petey and Hughes a ton. These are all pretty significant factors that could have led us to lose 5 additional games this year and thereby finishing around 5th.

The idea that they could just keep sending Martin out there, leaving Demko and 2 other legitimate options in the weeds is a bit ridiculous though.

Martin was floundering, his confidence sunk, and you want the coaching staff to just leave the corpse out there to continue getting flayed? That's just never going to happen.

For starters, you'd be submarining the kid's career. Took him a while, but reports are he has finally started to refind his game in Abby. You keep sending him out to get lit up by NHL shooters, there's a good chance he never recovers.

Maybe you think it's fine to sacrifice Martin to the hockey gods to *maybe* improve our lottery odds by a couple of percentage points. But how does Tocchet, or Boudreau for that matter, look the dressing room in the eyes when he talks about accountability before starting Martin again over Demko? No way he ever gets the room back after that.

So then don't fire BB, let him fall on the sword. And why does he do that? Why does he send out a flawed goalie instead of better options when he knows he's playing out the season and that's probably it for his NHL coaching career? Any way you look at it l, there's no legit NHL coach that continues playing Martin.

So use an intern coach, or find someone that will, yadda yadda yadda. This franchise has been enough of a circus the past decade without adding these kind of shenanigans on top, especially when it does nothing to guarantee an improvement in out lottery odds.

Time to accept we are what we are. Not bad enough to compete for Bedard, not good enough to compete for playoffs. Or in other words, we are all Canucks.

 

[Gstank]

Drances idea arent completely invalid of extreme but his delivery is like a 2 year old trying to get a cookie that his mom told him that he couldnt have and that makes him impossible to be taken seriously.

The difference in talent from 8-11 in the draft isnt a drop off at all. But I can just hear everyone bitching if 8,9,10 win the lottery and we are drafting 11th. To put it into prespective the 8-10 spots in the draft have a 14.5% of drafting 1st overall and a 29% chance of winning the lottery. Which are quite good chances all things considering

 

[DonnyNucker]

I dont think they did.

They traded Horvat + 2nd for Hronek + Räty.

They signed Kuzmenko to a weird 2 year deal.

And now they've played the living shit out of Demko & Hughes.


They are trying to win EVER GAME since the TDL.

Then why are they giving Delia 2 of the final 3 games?

 

[Bitz and Bites]

Drances idea arent completely invalid of extreme but his delivery is like a 2 year old trying to get a cookie that his mom told him that he couldnt have and that makes him impossible to be taken seriously.

The difference in talent from 8-11 in the draft isnt a drop off at all. But I can just hear everyone bitching if 8,9,10 win the lottery and we are drafting 11th. To put it into prespective the 8-10 spots in the draft have a 14.5% of drafting 1st overall and a 29% chance of winning the lottery. Which are quite good chances all things considering

I think there will be a drop off in positional options available in this draft after 7 or 8 when the top C get snapped up and the only top 10 D (Reinbacher) is gone and what’s left are smallish skilled wingers like Brindley and Cristall, middle six C like Danielson and Dvorsky, and smallish offensive D like ASP and Gulyayav.
Hopefully, by some miracle, we can stay at 8 and Reinbacher is still on the board and we take him. If not, do we take another high risk but high ceiling winger like Lekkerimaki? take a safe C option who might only top out as 2/3C similar to Raty? or take the second best all around D in Shimashev who’s like a Tanev/Carlo hybrid?
Gonna be an interesting draft if we make the pick which I assume we will.

 

[Canucks LB]

Drances idea arent completely invalid of extreme but his delivery is like a 2 year old trying to get a cookie that his mom told him that he couldnt have and that makes him impossible to be taken seriously.

The difference in talent from 8-11 in the draft isnt a drop off at all. But I can just hear everyone bitching if 8,9,10 win the lottery and we are drafting 11th. To put it into prespective the 8-10 spots in the draft have a 14.5% of drafting 1st overall and a 29% chance of winning the lottery. Which are quite good chances all things considering

There is absolutely a drop off after nine, honestly I think there is even a little tier between eight and nine as well.

 

[Gstank]

I think there will be a drop off in positional options available in this draft after 7 or 8 when the top C get snapped up and the only top 10 D (Reinbacher) is gone and what’s left are smallish skilled wingers like Brindley and Cristall, middle six C like Danielson and Dvorsky, and smallish offensive D like ASP and Gulyayav.
Hopefully, by some miracle, we can stay at 8 and Reinbacher is still on the board and we take him. If not, do we take another high risk but high ceiling winger like Lekkerimaki? take a safe C option who might only top out as 2/3C similar to Raty? or take the second best all around D in Shimashev who’s like a Tanev/Carlo hybrid?
Gonna be an interesting draft if we make the pick which I assume we will.

Those two players specifically shouldnt be drafted before 10.

I disagree when you say Danielsson and Dvorsky arent on the same level as Moore. They are much more complete players then Moore currently is and its the same thing that Canucks fans were saying abotu Nazar last year. Who had a rather disappointing season at Michigan this year

Bedard, Carlsson, Fantilli, Michkov, Smith, Benson are pretty universally seen as the top 6 talents in this draft. The group after them is Leonard, Moore, Dvorsky, Danielsson, Barlow and Sale Talent wise. Rienbacher, Simashev and ASP if you are taking into positional value as well. I think Heidt will see his name rise up draft boards as we get closer to the draft as well

I wouldnt reach for any of the 3 Dman as Moore, Dvorsky, Danielsson are better talents and if we are taking about upside Simashev is the Dman you would take a swing at because he is the only one who has #1 upside. Those names alone take you to the 10th overall pick and I think one of Honzak, Barlow, Cristall will be taking in the top 10. I think Honzak is a better prospect and player then Barlow, who is consistenly rated in the 7-11 range in mock drafts

Reinbacher is overrated by fans because they see the point totals but he doesnt have great tools. I saw someone compare him to Dobson and I think thats a fair comparison. Dobson is a good player but not someone I would take over a Hischer, Larkin, Bregeron type of player. And that is what I see with Dvorsky, Moore and Danielson

 

[Cancuks]

The draft lottery needs to be overhauled after this season. It's possible that Columbus and Chicago and maybe even Anaheim could finish tied in points and yet one team has 12% better chance to get #1 overall. Only the worst 10 teams should have a chance at #1 overall. And if you win the lottery you don't get another #1 for 10 years. This way no one tanks because you might get the #1 overall in a weak draft and miss out on the next McDavid/Bedard. But it would be more fair.

 

[racerjoe]

Honestly they should do away with the draft.

create a second playoffs for the top pick. this would get away from tanking, and give the league more revenue.

These playoffs probably wouldn't be great, as I doubt the players would care, but teams would and that would stop tanking.

 

[FlowMaster]

Honestly they should do away with the draft.

create a second playoffs for the top pick. this would get away from tanking, and give the league more revenue.

These playoffs probably wouldn't be great, as I doubt the players would care, but teams would and that would stop tanking.

I like down goes browns idea. Have the teams out of the playoffs draft a playoff team. Where their team ends up determines the draft order. Gives the fans a second team to cheer for in the playoffs.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Just like Vector said... what else were you realistically expecting? The shut the number two dman down, for a portion of the season the have had AHL guys being over half the D. They did a lot.

I don't agree at all.

They should have traded Kuzmenko OR tried to get him on a long deal that he has a chance to outperform. The 2 year deal is the worst possible out come. We are not contending for anything in those two years and he is currently riding the highest shooting% in the history of the league... He will decline and his trade value will not be the same in 2 years. Not even close.

Do you really think replacing OEL with anyone who has suited up for us on D made us worse?

Hronek has legit shoulder issues that should worry us. Shutting him down is not some savvy wink wink move by management.

They have played the wheels off of Quinn Hughes and Demko... We are the Ducks 5on5 when Hughes is not on the ice. And Demko has again stolen multiple meaningless games. Its the Canuck way.


I guess we are again in a position where the long term success of the team does not align with the interests of the coach and the management. OR our management and coach are not aligned.


Sounds like Philadelphia is giving up on this insane strategy of never taking a step back to accumulate assets and build for a cup run, we are now the lone team in the league trying to implement this strategy.

Could it just be that we DONT know better than the other 30 (about to be 31 if Philly follows through) teams in the league?