2023 NHL Entry Draft Discussion

[racerjoe]

You are correct that 5th seems to be the lowest. I think at that time we had a shot at 4th but the worst three teams were out of grasp. I think a 4-5th finish was unlikely but possible. You are right goaltending was driving that but we could have just continued to put Martin out there as much as possible and that would have done a ton. If we kept Boudreau as well morale would have continued to decline and it’s possible things actually got worse.

I agree with everyone that strength of schedule was going to be tough.

But anyway, we could actually finish 11th pretty easily. This team is playing well and that’s by design. And if we finish 11th then we are like 5-7 picks off. And taking into quality of player and draft odds that’s pretty significant and could move the needle long term. Especially when you consider that most of the “benefits” you listed are really just very short term benefits in order to compete next year (which is obviously extremely important to this management group) but are likely pretty meaningless long term.

With that all said, I get that you want the team to compete in the short term, so I get why you’d prefer a strong finish. It makes sense. But my point is that you shouldn’t be “baffled” if someone is frustrated by the finish if they prefer a more long term approach.

But again we were always most likely to finish 9th. So it would only be a 2 spot slide to 11.

 

[Hodgy]

But again we were always most likely to finish 9th. So it would only be a 2 spot slide to 11.

Even if we continued to play Spencer Martin and didn’t fire Boudreau? And didn’t play Petey and Hughes? That makes no sense since all of those intuitively have improved the team and yet we are in about 9th.

 

[DFAC]

Is Simashev the second best dman? Better than ASP?

 

[racerjoe]

Even if we continued to play Spencer Martin and didn’t fire Boudreau? And didn’t play Petey and Hughes? That makes no sense since all of those intuitively have improved the team and yet we are in about 9th.

Because we were as bad as it looked. We had just finished the absolute toughest part of our schedule, and we’re due a bounce back of some sort.

This is much like people saying we are not as good as our record… well we also were not as bad.

 

[Hodgy]

Because we were as bad as it looked. We had just finished the absolute toughest part of our schedule, and we’re due a bounce back of some sort.

This is much like people saying we are not as good as our record… well we also were not as bad.

I don’t think you are getting my point. The model would have been taking past results and projecting them, presumably. So if it said we were going to come 9th back in January or February or whatever, and then we did some things that would intuitively improve the team, but then we still finished around where the model said we would, then it stands to reason that without those improvements we would of finished worse.

 

[racerjoe]

I don’t think you are getting my point. The model would have been taking past results and projecting them, presumably. So if it said we were going to come 9th back in January or February or whatever, and then we did some things that would intuitively improve the team, but then we still finished around where the model said we would, then it stands to reason that without those improvements we would of finished worse.

No I understand what you are saying and it doesn't change as much as you think. That may change it so the Canucks finish 11th instead of 9th. The variance just ins't as big as people think. We were projected to beat the teams we did end up beating. What changed, was how we were beating them. Playing a better style of game.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

No I understand what you are saying and it doesn't change as much as you think. That may change it so the Canucks finish 11th instead of 9th. The variance just ins't as big as people think. We were projected to beat the teams we did end up beating. What changed, was how we were beating them. Playing a better style of game.

New coach bump no.2 for this group.

We´ve started to see it wear off already.

 

[Hodgy]

No I understand what you are saying and it doesn't change as much as you think. That may change it so the Canucks finish 11th instead of 9th. The variance just ins't as big as people think. We were projected to beat the teams we did end up beating. What changed, was how we were beating them. Playing a better style of game.

Playing Spencer Martin as much as possible and not firing Boudreau, plus not giving Petey ands Hughes a ton of minutes, could have had a larger effect.

 

[racerjoe]

Playing Spencer Martin as much as possible and not firing Boudreau, plus not giving Petey ands Hughes a ton of minutes, could have had a larger effect.

If we played tougher teams maybe you would have a point. We were projected to finish 9th... we may finish 11th. Talk of bottom 5 isn't realistic. Its living in dreamland.

 

[Izzy Goodenough]

The Canucks must go full-on Tank by holding Ovechkin out of the remaining games.

Oh wait, that is Washington, who just passed the Canucks in the draft rankings:

https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/washington-capitals/news/washington-capitals-alex-ovechkin-injury

 

[DFAC]

The Canucks must go full-on Tank by holding Ovechkin out of the remaining games.

Oh wait, that is Washington, who just passed the Canucks in the draft rankings:

https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/washington-capitals/news/washington-capitals-alex-ovechkin-injury

Meanwhile we are running Demko into the ground and playing Hughes 30 mins a night.. lol

 

[Bitz and Bites]

Is Simashev the second best dman? Better than ASP?

I think so but it depends on what you’re looking for. ASP projects as a high end PMD/PPQB guy who should be passable defensively like a Krug or Barrie and could put up a ton of points in the right situation. Simashev is better defensively with much better size and reach and like Tanev defensively but with much better puck and transition skills.
I was previously thinking that Shimashev would’ve been a great add with the Isles pick if we went with a forward with our pick when it was top 6 but now that we’re into the 9/10 range and the top end C and Reinbacher are probably off the board, Shimashev is someone I’d consider.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

If we played tougher teams maybe you would have a point. We were projected to finish 9th... we may finish 11th. Talk of bottom 5 isn't realistic. Its living in dreamland.

Disagree.

It just would have taken effort from management.

They went a chose a different route.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Is Simashev the second best dman? Better than ASP?

His nickname should be ASAP.

 

[Vector]

Disagree.

It just would have taken effort from management.

They went a chose a different route.

Management did a lot of things conducive to tanking: trading Horvat for a futures return, shut down multiple starters, and playing NCAA free agents and call-ups in prominent positions. All normal tanking things. The biggest change was Demko got healthy and has played well. My only real disappointment with how they've handled this part of the season has nothing to do with tanking but allowing Demko to be overplayed when he hasn't been healthy all season.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Management did a lot of things conducive to tanking: trading Horvat for a futures return, shut down multiple starters, and playing NCAA free agents and call-ups in prominent positions. All normal tanking things. The biggest change was Demko got healthy and has played well. My only real disappointment with how they've handled this part of the season has nothing to do with tanking but allowing Demko to be overplayed when he hasn't been healthy all season.

I dont think they did.

They traded Horvat + 2nd for Hronek + Räty.

They signed Kuzmenko to a weird 2 year deal.

And now they've played the living shit out of Demko & Hughes.


They are trying to win EVER GAME since the TDL.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

I dont think they did.

They traded Horvat + 2nd for Hronek + Räty.

They signed Kuzmenko to a weird 2 year deal.

And now they've played the living shit out of Demko & Hughes.


They are trying to win EVER GAME since the TDL.

With Quinn Hughes being the only legit top 4 D man on the squad.

ok.

 

[Hodgy]

If we played tougher teams maybe you would have a point. We were projected to finish 9th... we may finish 11th. Talk of bottom 5 isn't realistic. Its living in dreamland.

I think you are really undervaluing the impact of not firing Boudrea and trotting out Martin and his .871 svp and 3.99 GAA. Not to mention playing Hughes and Petey less time. I think by doing these things the Canucks would have had a shot at finishing around 5th overall.

Management did a lot of things conducive to tanking: trading Horvat for a futures return, shut down multiple starters, and playing NCAA free agents and call-ups in prominent positions. All normal tanking things. The biggest change was Demko got healthy and has played well. My only real disappointment with how they've handled this part of the season has nothing to do with tanking but allowing Demko to be overplayed when he hasn't been healthy all season.

Yes, I agree they did do many things conducive to tanking. No question there. But I think generally their priority has been to get the team playing as well as possible thereby increasing the chances that they will start next year strong and make the playoffs. Again, the ultimate goal or priority is making the playoffs next year, not maximizing their draft pick this year. And that makes sense because it is consistent with their approach (i.e., quick short term retool). Not making the playoffs next year would be pretty disastorous given their macro plan.

The Horvat for futures return wasn't actually a tank move, though. It did help but I think the intent was always to trade the first for immediate help and the fact that Hronek was injured wasn't intentional but something that obviously helped the tank. To put it another way, they are making that Hronek trade regardless of his injury status, and frankly, Hronek on defense probably improves the team notwithstanding losing Horvat.

And ya, the treatment of Demko, Hughes and Petey absolutely speaks to my whole argument that they much prefer setting themselves up to succeed next year rather than maximizing this year's draft pick.

And they had the tanking golden goose, and his name is Spencer Martin, and if they weren't so focused on making the playoffs next year then they could have absolutely held Demko out for longer, and when he did get back, split starts with Martin. This, combined with keeping around a totally dejected Boudreau who had team morale at an all-time low, absolutely could have resulted in the Canucks picking like 5th overall notwithstanding their easy schedule. And 5th overall or whatever vs 9-11th or wherever we finish is a huge difference in both the player we may get and lottery odds.

 

[racerjoe]

Disagree.

It just would have taken effort from management.

They went a chose a different route.

Just like Vector said... what else were you realistically expecting? The shut the number two dman down, for a portion of the season the have had AHL guys being over half the D. They did a lot.

I think you are really undervaluing the impact of not firing Boudrea and trotting out Martin and his .871 svp and 3.99 GAA. Not to mention playing Hughes and Petey less time. I think by doing these things the Canucks would have had a shot at finishing around 5th overall.

Or you are overestimating it and it is backed up by multiple sites saying when we were 5th, we still projected to be 9th...

And yes the prioritized winning over a full tank, but I would say they prioritized setting everyone up for expectation for next season.

 

[4Twenty]

The lowest we were hovering was in the 5-6 range and that was based on generationally terrible goaltending from Martin/Delia and a tough schedule to that point. We were never going to hold that spot when Demko returned and the schedule got easier.

We're now going to be drafting 8th-9th.

We've dropped 3-4 spots from the lowest we could potentially have finished. We were absolutely never getting into the 3-4 overall range.

And yes, the value generated from this improved play greatly exceeds the value lost from that small drop in the draft.

The “value” gained based on your subjective view points is just like your opinion man.

Every player you mentioned is a known quantity, doing the garbage time stat pad.


@RacerJoe post your webpages you’re sourcing. Forgive me for not taking your word for it.

Also how do you reconcile the idea they’re putting up points based on a soft schedule against the idea they’re much improved and a bubble team?

The idea that finishing 5th bottom is impossible is just silly. The team in 5th bottom currently was 4 points ahead of the Canucks when Tocchet was hired. There is definitely a possibility they could’ve finished poorly. Suggesting it’s dreamland or impossible is dumb.

 

[strattonius]

The “value” gained based on your subjective view points is just like your opinion man.

Every player you mentioned is a known quantity, doing the garbage time stat pad.


@Racer Joe post your webpages you’re sourcing. Forgive me for not taking your word for it.

Also how do you reconcile the idea they’re putting up points based on a soft schedule against the idea they’re much improved and a bubble team?

The idea that finishing 5th bottom is impossible is just silly. The team in 5th bottom currently was 4 points ahead of the Canucks when Tocchet was hired. There is definitely a possibility they could’ve finished poorly. Suggesting it’s dreamland or impossible is dumb.

We have too many good players to finish bottom 5. We just aren't as bad as Columbus, Anaheim, Chicago, SJ, Montreal and Arizona. These teams had focused tanks that even started at the beginning of the year. These teams don't have a Pettersson, a Hughes or a Demko that they could potentially cut minutes to. Their roster are gutted and traded. Chicago's top scorer is Taylor Raddysh. Or just look at Montreal - they aren't cutting ice to Suzuki he's just not as good to vault Montreal up the ladder. Kirby Dach is a nice piece but player's like Miller or Kuzmenko are older more rounded out players leaving us with a pretty good fwd core.

Sure we found ourselves in the bottom 5 at one point but when the season ends we are probably where we should be - picking 9th-11th.

 

[Raistlin]

look at the league, there has only been 1 (1!!) coaching change mid season. why is that? Are teams lining up to sign Tocchet? They are the only management team that didnt value getting a high pick because a coaching change is likely an auto 5-6 wins extra. Sometimes you roll with the hand you are dealt. when they started the year the way they did, you change course and try to expand your core, not just full on tank, but play Demko every other game the way Arizona did with Vejmelka, who had an elite GSAx at the time they switched to tandem. with that one little change, you do a lot better, getting a Smith/Bensen vs a Sale, Dvorsky. watching them start winning when nothing is on the line is disheartening, not the other way around.

 

[racerjoe]

This is the third time I have posted something like this... it is the first one that came up on google. There is a ton of sites like this. This one happens to project us finishing with 82 pts.

2022-23 NHL Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's 2022-23 NHL forecast predicts the winner of each hockey game and calculates each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Stanley Cup.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Just google it you will see a ton of sites that project them, Tankathon does it and the Athletic, but I don't subscribe so I can not see it.

Google is your friend.

 

[4Twenty]

Lol some trash site I’ve never heard of with a whole bunch of trash projections. Thought so.

 

[racerjoe]

Lol some trash site I’ve never heard of with a whole bunch of trash projections. Thought so.

HAHAHAHAHAHA

Don't look at the google ones, the athletic or the Tankathon one... this is why I never reply to you. Your opinions are just a bunch of jokes.