HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

[SannywithoutCompy]

I think it a pointless exercise to try to list out two different draft years, it is impossible to remove the bias of knowing what players did in their D+1.

Cutter Gauthier is an example of someone who would have been lower on lists last year and would get put higher than in actuality because of how good his D+1 year was.

I think if you can remember your order and roughly how you had them projected it's not overly difficult to remove bias. I had Gauthier at 9 on my list last year (between Slaf and Hutson), and I can definitely see some things I missed in hindsight, but I can also accept that if he'd been on the board this year he'd probably be ranked closer to Barlow or Honzek for me.

 

[KevSkillz4]

At this point, it's Ryan Leonard, Matvei Michkov, Will Smith or Zach Benson.

Please, do the right thing Habs!!

No Dvorsky.
No Reinbacher.

Please!

 

[WeThreeKings]

This is my mock.. will be terribly wrong as they always are.

Chicago Blackhawks​	Connor Bedard​
Anaheim Ducks​	Adam Fantilli​
Columbus Blue Jackets​	Leo Carlsson​
San Jose Sharks​	Will Smith​
Montreal Canadiens​	Ryan Leonard​
Arizona Coyotes​	David Reinbacher​
Philadelphia Flyers​	Dalibor Dvorsky​
Washington Capitals​	Matvei Michkov​
Detroit Red Wings​	Zach Benson​
St Louis Blues​	Axel Sandin-Pelikka​
Vancouver Canucks​	Matthew Wood​
Arizona Coyotes​	Gabriel Perrault​
Buffalo Sabres​	Tom Willander​
Pittsburgh Penguins​	Colby Barlow​
Nashville Predators​	Brayden Yager​
Calgary Flames​	Nate Danielson​
Detroit Red Wings​	Samuel Honzek​
Winnipeg Jets​	Oliver Moore​
Chicago Blackhawks​	Mikhail Gulyayev​
Seattle Kraken​	Dmitri Simashev​
Minnesota Wild​	Eduard Sale​
Philadelphia Flyers​	Riley Heidt​
New York Rangers​	Daniil But​
Nashville Predators​	Quentin Musty​
St Louis Blues​	Otto Stenberg​
San Jose Sharks​	Calum Ritchie​
Colorado Avalanche​	Andrew Cristall​
Toronto Maple Leafs​	David Edstrom​
St Louis Blues​	Gracyn Sawchyn​
Carolina Hurricanes​	Nick Lardis​
Montreal Canadiens​	Michael Hrabal​
Vegas Golden Knights​	Lukas Dragicevic​

 

[Playmaker09]

How many under agers are great defensively in men’s leagues? Against his age group, he’s clearly miles ahead of pretty much everyone else. He’s also elite in the face off circle which is a big part of the equation.

He projects as a big, physical two way center with defence and scoring.

Because he's clearly much more physically developed than his peers. Take away that advantage and he's an average defensive player at best right now.
Other 18 year olds would have trouble in pro leagues because of their lack of strength. That doesn't apply to Dvorsky. His struggles are because the rest of his game (including defense) needs work.

His standout defensive quality is he doesn't cheat like most 18 year olds do. That's not what projects as a high level defensive player in the NHL.
He doesn't actively make life difficult for opponents, he just doesn't give them anything for free.

He doesn't provide high level backpressure or have the lateral agility in the neutral zone to stymie transition play, force dump ins, etc. Doesn't read and close out on opponents at a high level, taking away their space. He does little to force or create turnovers.

He's just a basic positional defender and faceoff man who projects as a possession forward, not a defensive specialist.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

This is my mock.. will be terribly wrong as they always are.

Chicago Blackhawks​	Connor Bedard​
Anaheim Ducks​	Adam Fantilli​
Columbus Blue Jackets​	Leo Carlsson​
San Jose Sharks​	Will Smith​
Montreal Canadiens​	Ryan Leonard​
Arizona Coyotes​	David Reinbacher​
Philadelphia Flyers​	Dalibor Dvorsky​
Washington Capitals​	Matvei Michkov​
Detroit Red Wings​	Zach Benson​
St Louis Blues​	Axel Sandin-Pelikka​
Vancouver Canucks​	Matthew Wood​
Arizona Coyotes​	Gabriel Perrault​
Buffalo Sabres​	Tom Willander​
Pittsburgh Penguins​	Colby Barlow​
Nashville Predators​	Brayden Yager​
Calgary Flames​	Nate Danielson​
Detroit Red Wings​	Samuel Honzek​
Winnipeg Jets​	Oliver Moore​
Chicago Blackhawks​	Mikhail Gulyayev​
Seattle Kraken​	Dmitri Simashev​
Minnesota Wild​	Eduard Sale​
Philadelphia Flyers​	Riley Heidt​
New York Rangers​	Daniil But​
Nashville Predators​	Quentin Musty​
St Louis Blues​	Otto Stenberg​
San Jose Sharks​	Calum Ritchie​
Colorado Avalanche​	Andrew Cristall​
Toronto Maple Leafs​	David Edstrom​
St Louis Blues​	Gracyn Sawchyn​
Carolina Hurricanes​	Nick Lardis​
Montreal Canadiens​	Michael Hrabal​
Vegas Golden Knights​	Lukas Dragicevic​

1Chicago BlackhawksConnor Bedard
2Anaheim DucksAdam Fantilli
3Columbus Blue JacketsLeo Carlsson
4San Jose SharksWill Smith
5Montreal CanadiensRyan Leonard
6Arizona CoyotesDavid Reinbacher
7Philadelphia FlyersMatvei Michkov
8Washington CapitalsZach Benson
9Detroit Red WingsOliver Moore
10St. Louis BluesSamuel Honzek
11Vancouver CanucksTom Willander
12Arizona CoyotesDalibor Dvorsky
13Buffalo SabresDmitri Simashev
14Pittsburgh PenguinsNate Danielson
15Nashville PredatorsBrayden Yager
16Calgary FlamesMatthew Wood
17Detroit Red WingsAxel Sandin Pellikka
18Winnipeg JetsColby Barlow
19Chicago BlackhawksGabe Perreault
20Seattle KrakenQuentin Musty
21Minnesota WildDavid Edstrom
22Philadelphia FlyersEduard Sale
23New York RangersMikhail Gulyayev
24Nashville PredatorsAndrew Cristall
25St. Louis BluesRiley Heidt
26San Jose SharksLukas Dragicevic
27Colorado AvalancheGavin Brindley
28Toronto Maple LeafsMaxim Strbak
29St. Louis BluesEtienne Morin
30Carolina HurricanesEthan Gauthier
31Montreal CanadiensGracyn Sawchyn
32Vegas Golden KnightsCalum Ritchie

Some wishful thinking at 31 involved

 

[Kaladin]

From my perspective 5 years from now if we want to trade for michkov and we got Leonard I don’t see a world in which we’re the ones not adding.

Edmonton fans love Hyman too. Good in the playoffs too but he’s no franchise cornerstone.

 

[The Great Weal]

Caufield?

I love Cole but he won't have that type of impact all over the ice like those two.

Eichels pretty much a clear elite game-changing talent that the Habs do not possess.

He is, not to mention that he had to sacrifice a lot of his offense to be so well rounded. Marchessault brought that up on the Spittin Chiclets interview on how you need a guy like Eichel way more than a 80+ point player who still ends up being a minus if you want to go far in the playoffs.

 

[GlassesJacketShirt]

From my perspective 5 years from now if we want to trade for michkov and we got Leonard I don’t see a world in which we’re the ones not adding.

Edmonton fans love Hyman too. Good in the playoffs too but he’s no franchise cornerstone.

I wouldn't go with Leonard though I also do not hate the idea either, he is in my "zone of reasonable doubt" at fifth overall. He has skill and isn't dumb, but I do not think he has the offensive touch of some of the comparables being made.

The name that does pop up sometimes that leaves me feeling cold is Dvorsky, whose physical superiority in junior does not impress me. The tracked metrics I did find where not stellar, which supported my concerns.

 

[ReHabs]

From my perspective 5 years from now if we want to trade for michkov and we got Leonard I don’t see a world in which we’re the ones not adding.

Edmonton fans love Hyman too. Good in the playoffs too but he’s no franchise cornerstone.

This is it.

You can get Chris Kunitzes and Zach Hymans on the NHL marketplace but you cannot get Patrick Kanes.

 

[Whitesnake]

Whats Simashev gonna be good at ?

Everything is the development is on par. He has the size, the skating, especially the edgework, the IQ to be quite effective. Yes, the big question mark is for him to use his abilities to start adding points to his stats. He has an insane wrister...that he doesn't use enough. And has trouble in finding lanes. Has more the mentality of a distributor offensively that will have to work on.

I really have no idea why you can't see him as a potential development project. No idea. YES, usually for me, 95% of the time, I will also base myself on stats to determine who will make it or not. Even the pure bottom players, grinders, do rack stats in lower leagues. I know. But him....I don't know.

Where you have him? 5th round?

 

[Skip Bayless]

I still think Brady is overrated though and that Leonard is the better prospect and probably the better NHLer.

I think he ends up producing about the same, 70 to 80 pts, but Leonard will drive the play and do more with the puck.

Leonard plays like Konecny but has the finesse of a Timo Meier/Nikolaj Ehlers. Dynamic winger, which we don't have.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Let's do another Michkov-centric exercise.

If we concede that he will never be a plus defender and his size will be something he has to adapt to be successful in the NHL and we see his offensive upside in his prime somewhere between 80-100 pts.

What threshold do Ryan Leonard and David Reinbacher have to hit in their primes, knowing they will provide physical and defensive value and size that Michkov doesn't have, to be worth passing on Michkov and the associated and rumored risks?

 

[waitin425]

What I want this draft.

#1 - draft MIchkov
#2 - trade for PLD
#3 - draft one of Hrabal or Bjarnason

Deliver this to us Hugo and you will be amongst the Gods!

 

[le_sean]

I don't see a reason why anyone would draft anyone just for their possible playoff performances. Or why anyone would believe someone who is great in the regular season would be bad in he playoffs.

We have Gallagher. We used to be captained by Pacioretty. We had Tatar, Plekanec, Ribeiro. Lots of recent Habs examples of good regular season players that turn into dogshit as soon as the playoffs start. Not a surprise that it concerns the fans. And the last four all have one thing in common - they fold as soon as they are hit a little.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

 

[NotProkofievian]

How many under agers are great defensively in men’s leagues? Against his age group, he’s clearly miles ahead of pretty much everyone else. He’s also elite in the face off circle which is a big part of the equation.

He projects as a big, physical two way center with defence and scoring.


Caufield?

Muh faceoffs!

 

[Kennerback]

Let's do another Michkov-centric exercise.

If we concede that he will never be a plus defender and his size will be something he has to adapt to be successful in the NHL and we see his offensive upside in his prime somewhere between 80-100 pts.

What threshold do Ryan Leonard and David Reinbacher have to hit in their primes, knowing they will provide physical and defensive value and size that Michkov doesn't have, to be worth passing on Michkov and the associated and rumored risks?

Leonard 80 points. Reinbacher a #2 D.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Muh faceoffs!

Isn’t puck possession all the rage???

 

[NotProkofievian]

Isn’t puck possession all the rage???

Yeah, but faceoffs still don't really matter.

 

[calder candidate]

Won’t be surprised if MTL takes Ethan Gauthier at 31 or 37. He seems to think so too according to Twitter.

I hope someone else take him first than…

 

[Xirik]

Got a question for the guys who've been looking at this draft a long time.

Who is the best player that you believe with be available at 5 OV has the highest chance of being a Center in the NHL?

2nd question is who do you think the BPA is at that spot.

 

[BergevinBurner]

Got a question for the guys who've been looking at this draft a long time.

Who is the best player that you believe with be available at 5 OV has the highest chance of being a Center in the NHL?

2nd question is who do you think the BPA is at that spot.

Dvorsky would be the best center available at 5(assuming Smith, Carlsson and Fantilli go top 4).

As far as BPA goes, most would probably agree that whoever of Smith/Michkov is available at 5 would probably be the BPA.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Got a question for the guys who've been looking at this draft a long time.

Who is the best player that you believe with be available at 5 OV has the highest chance of being a Center in the NHL?

2nd question is who do you think the BPA is at that spot.

Dvorsky, and Michkov.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Got a question for the guys who've been looking at this draft a long time.

Who is the best player that you believe with be available at 5 OV has the highest chance of being a Center in the NHL?

2nd question is who do you think the BPA is at that spot.

I don't think Fantilli, Carlsson or Smith will be there at 5th overall.

Some people think Leonard can play center, I don't.
I would also move Dvorsky to the wing.
Honestly, most of them I'd play on the wing in this draft.. so I guess Oliver Moore or Calum Ritchie, but neither are sniffing the 5th overall pick.

So highest percentage to be a center would be Dvorsky, even if I wouldn't put them there.

And the BPA at the spot is either Michkov/Smith depending on who is available after the Sharks pick, but the Michkov dossier is riddled with questions we can't have an answer for. That means the next best are Leonard and Reinbacher, with Wood, Dvorsky and Benson behind them.

 

[AHShadow]

That's very interesting and thank you for sharing.

On that point, I'd like to make a point. Vegas, per exemple, love big ass teams. They go for size and talent. Think Stone, MaxPac, Eichel, etc. That's just the add-ons of course. JAM is the small player on that team, like say a Caufield. So the comparison seems justified.

But it does come with a caveat in that it shrinks their possibilities. We are all aware that big talented players are seldom available. Thing is with Vegas is that they will pay the price for it. They don't balk when they see that rare big guy. Here at HabsHF, we would die inside to see all our prospects and picks traded for those guys. It's the price to pay. So if HuGo's strategy is similar, they better start paying the price to get those types. It's how you acheive it.

I actually think that if the Habs wanted to follow Vegas' philosophy... then we should actually continue drafting small skilled players because that's pretty much what they did to get Eichel, MaxPac and Stone.

All of Krebs, Suzuki and Brannstrom were under 6' and got them their big player with talent that they coveted.