HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

[AHShadow]

I mean he’s just so good and underrated around these parts. Imagine getting him and PLD during the draft. Who would want to face this top-6 in a 7 game series?

PLD-Suzuki-Cole
Slaf-Dach-Leonard

It looks good on paper, but are we actually better than other upcoming teams like Sabres, Devils and Anaheim?

We don't have anyone who looks remotely as good as Hughes, Thompson or Fantilli.

This tells me that either we should still be rebuilding for at least 2-3 years and accumulating more draft picks to find that gamebreaker. Leonard would be a nice piece, but we need that player who can really tilt the ice on our end.

Let's do another Michkov-centric exercise.

If we concede that he will never be a plus defender and his size will be something he has to adapt to be successful in the NHL and we see his offensive upside in his prime somewhere between 80-100 pts.

What threshold do Ryan Leonard and David Reinbacher have to hit in their primes, knowing they will provide physical and defensive value and size that Michkov doesn't have, to be worth passing on Michkov and the associated and rumored risks?

The way that I approach this kind of exercise is to try and find a player in the NHL that is similar in how you described Michkov and see what would it take for me to draft a Leonard or Reinbacher instead.

The closest comparable (not in terms of playstyle but in the description) is probably Patrick Kane? And for me to not want to draft Kane in his prime and draft someone like Leonard or Reinbacher... I'd need Leonard to be at least a 60-80 top-line 2-way winger and Reinbacher to probably be a #1D.

I think even if Leonard becomes that in his prime, I think I'd still rather have someone like Kane. I'd probably be very happy with Reinbacher if I get a #1D out of him though, but idk it still hurts to think you passed on a potential Patrick Kane.

Not sure if it's even fair of me to compare prime Michkov to prime Kane, so feel free to correct me with another player instead.

 

[WeThreeKings]

edit: sorry for the triple post.

I think Kane would be the ultimate upside but then we have Kane's play-off heroics, what if he is regular season Kane with the Marner play-off track record?

 

[ginomini]

Let's do another Michkov-centric exercise.

If we concede that he will never be a plus defender and his size will be something he has to adapt to be successful in the NHL and we see his offensive upside in his prime somewhere between 80-100 pts.

What threshold do Ryan Leonard and David Reinbacher have to hit in their primes, knowing they will provide physical and defensive value and size that Michkov doesn't have, to be worth passing on Michkov and the associated and rumored risks?

If Michkov is Kaprizov, I would need Leonard to be Landeskog and Reinbacher to be a 1D to think about a 1 to 1 swap.

 

[WeThreeKings]

If Michkov is Kaprizov, I would need Leonard to be Landeskog and Reinbacher to be a 1D to think about a 1 to 1 swap.

So Reinbacher in the mold of a Doughty or like a Weber/Suter?

Cause Reinbacher might not be a huge point producer like Doughty/Subban.. but he definitely could score in that Weber/Pietrangelo range and I think we all considered them as 1s.

 

[ginomini]

So Reinbacher in the mold of a Doughty or like a Weber/Suter?

Cause Reinbacher might not be a huge point producer like Doughty/Subban.. but he definitely could score in that Weber/Pietrangelo range and I think we all considered them as 1s.

Yes, 1D à la Weber/Suter/Pietrangelo/McAvoy.

 

[Draft]

All risk and intangibles included, it’s gotta be one of the top-5. I’m not keen on drafting wingers unless they’re exceptional (Michkov) and don’t personally see #1 upside with Reinbacher.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Yes, 1D à la Weber/Suter/Pietrangelo/McAvoy.

I think those are a reasonable stances to have vs Michkov.

And I agree that I think if the team selects Leonard or Reinbacher at 5, they believe they have the potential to be a Landeskog or McAvoy level player. Will they get there? Who knows.. but it isn't a slam dunk Michkov becomes Kaprizov either.

 

[ginomini]

I think those are a reasonable stances to have vs Michkov.

And I agree that I think if the team selects Leonard or Reinbacher at 5, they believe they have the potential to be a Landeskog or McAvoy level player. Will they get there? Who knows.. but it isn't a slam dunk Michkov becomes Kaprizov either.

Yes these are for sure reasonable stances. It's not that far fetched to argue for those ahead of Michkov if a team believes his ceiling is Kaprizov rather than Kucherov.

Actually, all are better prospects than their comparables were on their respective draft days. (yes, I also believe Leonard is better than Landeskog was in 2011)

 

[JoelWarlord]

It would be nice, but still starving for that elite game-changing talent up front. Sure you can point at a team like Vegas for not having the highest point producers, but I still don't see any of these listed guys as close to a Stone/Eichel caliber player.

Part of why I'm not 100% adamant that our tank years absolutely NEED to produce a superstar forward is that the list of star forwards/legit #1 centers that move is actually longer than we might imagine at first glance, and I get a sense that this front office will not be afraid to go out and get a guy if we need one. They're keeping their powder dry right now, but I would be really surprised if the same FO that just traded Romanov for Dach was content to sit on their hands without a star forward in the future if we still need one.

Over the past 10ish years, guys like Seguin, Kesler, prime Eric & Jordan Staal, Duchene, O'Reilly, Zibanejad, Stone, and Eichel all moved via trade, and then there was Tavares, Pietrangelo, Panarin, Gaudreau in recent years as UFAs, etc. Of course it's not easy to go out and get a star forward, but there's been one or two available per year on average over the past 10-15 seasons or so, and once a guy goes on the block you can seemingly get anyone for a late 1st, a good but not special prospect like eg. Krebs, and another roster player/pick depending on the quality of the player you're getting. It's a pretty efficient market for the buyer in most cases since you're trading a ton of uncertainty to get an established star.

 

[Doublechin]

Marek is saying a source of his told him the Ducks are taking Michkov

 

[Mrb1p]

Everything is the development is on par. He has the size, the skating, especially the edgework, the IQ to be quite effective. Yes, the big question mark is for him to use his abilities to start adding points to his stats. He has an insane wrister...that he doesn't use enough. And has trouble in finding lanes. Has more the mentality of a distributor offensively that will have to work on.

I really have no idea why you can't see him as a potential development project. No idea. YES, usually for me, 95% of the time, I will also base myself on stats to determine who will make it or not. Even the pure bottom players, grinders, do rack stats in lower leagues. I know. But him....I don't know.

Where you have him? 5th round?

What abilities? He doesnt flash dynamic playmaking. He doesnt flash shooting skills beyond peewee level, he doesnt have a mind to activate and move up the zone, his first pass is okay but nothing special.

He doesnt have an insane wrister, where have you seen him rip a puck? He cant.

Hes 48th on my list. Hes a project all-right. But if you think hes gonna develop an offensive game out of thin air you are mistaken. You pick him because of his elite defensive game and size and you hope he either adds grit or offense to his game, he's literally the same pick as Tinordi. I cant believe people are pushing for him so high.

You cant watch Reinbacher and Simashev and believe these two guys are similar, it is complete insanity.

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

Marek is saying a source of his told him the Ducks are taking Michkov

Watched the podcast earlier. I thought a source of his said Ducks could take Michkov not that they are taking Michkov

 

[JoelWarlord]

Isn’t puck possession all the rage???

Posession is important but faceoffs are just one of hundreds of possession changing events in a given hockey game. They're given outsized influence because they're a discrete event that has always been recorded and categorized so it's an easy thing to look at. bBig faceoff wins/losses stick out in our mind, but winning a faceoff is not inherently more valuable than winning any given battle on the boards or creating a turnover in any other way.

 

[Mandala]

Honestly, kudos to you.

This is the right approach and something that has served me well.

Have an opinion, express it, if there's push back, go back and see if I can see what that person sees. Change opinion if possible.

And if I have an opinion on someone and it was wrong, go back and analyze what I might have been missing or not seeing.

Yes a very smart way to manage things.

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

Marek is saying a source of his told him the Ducks are taking Michkov

Watched the podcast earlier. I thought a source of his said Ducks could take Michkov not that they are taking Michkov

...so...if Bedard goes 1st, Michkov goes 2nd, and Columbus luvs Smith, we would either end up with Fantilli or Carlsson...I'd buy that for a dollar!!...

 

[austin316]

@WeThreeKings
Question regarding Hrabal. I know San Jose and St
Louis needs a goalie, do you think he makes it past #25 and #26? Or would you look at moving up past them to ensure we get the best goalie of the draft?

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

@WeThreeKings
Question regarding Hrabal. I know San Jose and St
Louis needs a goalie, do you think he makes it past #25 and #26? Or would you look at moving up past them to ensure we get the best goalie of the draft?

St. Louis has Hofer in their system.

Sharks need a goalie for the future. They also need a bunch of prospects. There's a decent amount of goalies in this draft, so they might opt to take one later.

I know I'm no wethreekings

 

[WinterLion]

Yes, 1D à la Weber/Suter/Pietrangelo/McAvoy.

I think Pietrangelo is a good comparable




Also (unrelated just a fun read):

From todays Athletic mock by Pronn-man

5. Montreal Canadiens: David Reinbacher, D, Kloten (SWISS)

If the Sharks go in a different direction at four I think this will be Smith. If not, it gets interesting. The Reinbacher and Ryan Leonard noise has been amplified in the last few weeks and people in the league are convinced it will be one or the other if Montreal doesn’t go down the Michkov route. I wouldn’t be so confident about what they will do. They held their cards pretty well last season at No. 1 overall even if by the closing few days it became obvious. I don’t think anyone in the league actually knows who they’re picking, but based on all the information I’ve gleaned of late, my bet is Reinbacher if I had to pick a name.

 

[WinterLion]

Marek is saying a source of his told him the Ducks are taking Michkov

This makes sense and will make things VERY interesting!

 

[WinterLion]

I'm just going to say this. Kalen Lind at 37. Just do it.

 

[Doublechin]

This makes sense and will make things VERY interesting!

I'd trade down to 4 if I'm then and I have any sense

 

[WinterLion]

I'd trade down to 4 if I'm then and I have any sense

I get the feeling some teams LOVE Michkov which makes sense... but also why would the Sharks pay up if they know they are getting Fantilli or Carlsson?

Maybe they trade with the Habs if they know for sure the Sharks & BJ's won't take him (or trade the pick to a team that wants him)...?

 

[Vachon23]

Marek is saying a source of his told him the Ducks are taking Michkov

Perfect scenario for MTL

 

[waitin425]

Things could be very funny this draft.

The only certainty is Bedard.

Ducks IMO will select Fantilli or take the swing for Michkov.

Columbus, left with choice of the three centre's could take Smith.

San Jose left with Carlsson or Fantilli could actually go bonkers and grab Reinbacher considering they are likely to trade EK.

Would be nuts if we are left to choose between Fantilli and Carlsson.

Anything can happen. And although we seem to have a consensus top 5, we hardly ever get it right!

 

[WeThreeKings]

@WeThreeKings
Question regarding Hrabal. I know San Jose and St
Louis needs a goalie, do you think he makes it past #25 and #26? Or would you look at moving up past them to ensure we get the best goalie of the draft?

It's possible they will take him, it depends on the cost but no I'd probably sit there and just take Fowler or Bjarnason at 37 if he's gone.