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HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

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JoelWarlord said:
This is the exact opposite of the problem with hockey development in Canada. The whole system is set up to cater to the interests of rich psycho hockey families that can afford to put their kids in elite high performance camps run by ex-NHLers from the time they're eight years old and drop huge money on travel teams and extra training outside the teams themselves. Hockey development in Canada is slipping because it's all positive feedback loops since even Peewee AAA coaches are running teams to win (and audition for a CHL/Jr. A role and beyond) rather than to develop.

Players that fall behind at 12-14 or even as young as 10 or 11 can get left in the dust and have no chance to catch back up to the guys that developed a bit earlier either due to earlier physical growth or an obsessive training schedule imposed by their parents since they just don't get the playing time. It's even worse with goalies because you have the size obsession on top of that where an early growth spurt can lock an untalented goalie into all the prime development spots over a shorter but better goalie.
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Off topic, but 100% on point
 
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JoelWarlord said:
This is the exact opposite of the problem with hockey development in Canada. The whole system is set up to cater to the interests of rich psycho hockey families that can afford to put their kids in elite high performance camps run by ex-NHLers from the time they're eight years old and drop huge money on travel teams and extra training outside the teams themselves. Hockey development in Canada is slipping because it's all positive feedback loops since even Peewee AAA coaches are running teams to win (and audition for a CHL/Jr. A role and beyond) rather than to develop.

Players that fall behind at 12-14 or even as young as 10 or 11 can get left in the dust and have no chance to catch back up to the guys that developed a bit earlier either due to earlier physical growth or an obsessive training schedule imposed by their parents since they just don't get the playing time. It's even worse with goalies because you have the size obsession on top of that where an early growth spurt can lock an untalented goalie into all the prime development spots over a shorter but better goalie.


I never said it won't be easier to find a top 4 D next year, I said these things are always overblown a year out. It happens every single year, next year's draft is always the right time because there are 15 potential high-upside picks who haven't shown their warts yet, everybody is a C at 16 and then a bunch of them are wingers at 17, and so on.

Sure, there is a universe where Yager becomes a #1C but at this time last year, people were talking about him being in that top tier after Bedard & Fantilli and now he might not even go in the top 10. Yager was 4th on McKenzie's pre-season list, Cal Ritchie was 6th, Cam Allen was the top dman at 8, while Will Smith was an honourable mention who wasn't even in the top 16. Don't pretend that this draft class today matches the kind of projections and dreams people had last year.

I just think it's foolish to get cute with it and pass on the guy you want based on projections of what a future draft class made up of current 16-17 year old D-1 players will look like as 17-18 year old draft year players next season where you'll then be assessing them based on what you project they'll become as pros age 22-23 and beyond. Yeah of course if you're planning ahead to tank for Bedard that's one thing but otherwise I think this stuff is just overthinking it. If Reinbacher is the guy they want pick Reinbacher, and the same goes for Smith, Benson, or whoever else they might consider. Pick the guy you want instead of trying to fantasy draft a year or two into the future, some of these kids being hyped for the 2024 draft can't even drive a car yet.


Just because you put words in my mouth doesn't mean I actually said that. I did not say this draft is not deep at C or F, or that next year's draft will not be deep at D, or that scouts were wrong to say Yager could be a 1C this time last year. I am arguing that these kinds of narratives about a draft class are a silly reason to pass on a guy if you otherwise would want to pick him because so much can change in a year when we're, by definition, talking about players that are 16 and 17 years old. There is just way too much uncertainty between the draft, lottery outcomes, guys not developing the way you'd hope in their draft year after promising D-1 seasons, and uncertainty around where a team's pick will fall to be fretting about picking a D in the forward draft or a forward in the D draft.
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What you say is true, but I'd like to add that.


As someone who came from a family that wasn't fortunate with money, but my mom still made sacrifices for me to play, I was denied playing for the double A team because of politics. They put players on the team with better connections/parents had more money. So, if you can just afford to play, you're probably not going to get the chance to get better.

By no means am I saying I could have rivaled Crosby, or even been a scrub at the AHL level, but there's a good probability in my mind that the NHL has been denied good, or better players because of their family's financial level.

Apologies to the mods, but it's a funny story I have to add to show.

So, my town is Renfrew. There's a close town called Cobden (Jack Quinn is from here). A friend/teammate of mine was cut by Renfrew, because they had already decided their 2 goalies. So, he went and tried for Cobden and made the team. Cobden beat the Renfrew time in every game they played and finished better in the standings and went further in the playoffs than Renfrew.

For comparison, Renfrew, a small town is about 5 times the size (population) that Cobden, so there was a much bigger pool to choose and they chose wrong.




Let's get some prospects in the system with size and skill
 
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JoelWarlord said:
Just because you put words in my mouth doesn't mean I actually said that. I did not say this draft is not deep at C or F, or that next year's draft will not be deep at D, or that scouts were wrong to say Yager could be a 1C this time last year. I am arguing that these kinds of narratives about a draft class are a silly reason to pass on a guy if you otherwise would want to pick him because so much can change in a year when we're, by definition, talking about players that are 16 and 17 years old. There is just way too much uncertainty between the draft, lottery outcomes, guys not developing the way you'd hope in their draft year after promising D-1 seasons, and uncertainty around where a team's pick will fall to be fretting about picking a D in the forward draft or a forward in the D draft.
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No one is arguing for passing on a guy. We are arguing for not taking a guy that would otherwise not be BPA at 5, knowing that next year there will be plenty to choose from in terms of Ds.
 
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ReHabs said:
You want a scoring forward to do what else? … Grind?

Why does every prospective Habs prospect have to play like Plekanec?

We’re not picking 1OA, we’re picking 5OA. You’re not going to get a perfect prospect at 5OA, so why not aim for the highest scoring upside as a priority this time??
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someone with grit, at least. high scoring upside isn't enough with me.

benson is not perfect. leonard isn't either but i'd rather have these guys than smith. they have more to offer.
 
SOLR said:
No one is arguing for passing on a guy. We are arguing for not taking a guy that would otherwise not be BPA at 5
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I disagree with this assessment about the player but this is a perfectly reasonable opinion. I don't have a problem with someone preferring a forward on their own merits or being more bearish than I am on Reinbacher, that's inherent to any draft discussions. I just don't really find any of this "next year's draft is deep on D" even remotely compelling.
SOLR said:
knowing that next year there will be plenty to choose from in terms of Ds.
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I do not think this part is good reasoning at all. There's just so much uncertainty with drafts and teenage prospects that I don't think looking forward to next year should be a consideration at all. The argument about taking Reinbacher at 5 should be about whether or not Reinbacher is worth picking at 5th overall over Benson, Smith, Leonard, Dvorsky, Leonard, Dvorsky etc. (setting Michkov aside because that's an entirely separate issue), or if we could trade the pick for something else more valuable than him instead.

The arbitrary concept of a "stud D prospect" that was available in a past draft class or theoretically might be available to us at some undefined point in some future year, or Kiviharju, Levshunov, Mews, Parekh or whoever else we might be in a position to take in 13 months should not enter into the decision at all. Drafting is already such an uncertain task that allowing even more uncertain ideas about what next year's draft "should" look like enter into the decision-making process is going to lead to worse outcomes. Just look at this draft for instance, we're picking 5th overall in the much hyped 2023 draft that was supposed to be loaded to the brim with elite C prospects and we're looking at Smith (who's probably a winger) and Dvorsky as the two best Cs likely to be available.
 
Do we really need a center though? Ideally yes, every team would love to add a superstar center but for the Habs they already have Suzuki and Dach. IF (huge if) they manage to get PLD and that Beck show he can hold his own then the center line is pretty stacked. I know Dach or PLD could also play on the wing but as far as I am concerned I would rather get the best offensive player and not only favor centerman over a winger. Also as weird as it may look, I feel Leonard could possibly turn into a monster of a center too.
 
JeffreyLFC said:
Do we really need a center though? Ideally yes, every team would love to add a superstar center but for the Habs they already have Suzuki and Dach. IF (huge if) they manage to get PLD and that Beck show he can hold his own then the center line is pretty stacked. I know Dach or PLD could also play on the wing but as far as I am concerned I would rather get the best offensive player and not only favor centerman over a winger. Also as weird as it may look, I feel Leonard could possibly turn into a monster of a center too.
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Even tho it is ''stacked''. I think we would glady trade or move one of them to wing if we could acquire a superstar 1C, as none of them is. Maybe Dach will tho?
 
What is everyones opinions about Fantilli andCarlsson so far at the world cup?

Anecdotically, last year when we were all rooting for Wright and when we were afraid of Slaf, we would ask : Maybe Wright would have putted 9 points in 8 games at the world cup too?
 
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JeffreyLFC said:
Do we really need a center though? Ideally yes, every team would love to add a superstar center but for the Habs they already have Suzuki and Dach. IF (huge if) they manage to get PLD and that Beck show he can hold his own then the center line is pretty stacked. I know Dach or PLD could also play on the wing but as far as I am concerned I would rather get the best offensive player and not only favor centerman over a winger. Also as weird as it may look, I feel Leonard could possibly turn into a monster of a center too.
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Yes he can, he has all the tools.
 
Jaynki said:
What is everyones opinions about Fantilli andCarlsson so far at the world cup?

Anecdotically, last year when we were all rooting for Wright and when we were afraid of Slaf, we would ask : Maybe Wright would have putted 9 points in 8 games at the world cup too?
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Some won’t admit but Slaf looked REALLY good. Not only the points but in general. He dominated shifts even against teams like Canada (who was way better than this year’s team).

Fantilli and Carlsson looks ok and has flashes i guess but not like Slafkovsky.
 
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SuzukiSZN said:
Some won’t admit but Slaf looked REALLY good. Not only the points but in general. He dominated shifts even against teams like Canada (who was way better than this year’s team).

Fantilli and Carlsson looks ok and has flashes i guess but not like Slafkovsky.
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Slafkovsky has amazing tools but I question his hockey IQ and awareness on ice.
 
JeffreyLFC said:
Slafkovsky has amazing tools but I question his hockey IQ and awareness on ice.
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For him to be successful, he’ll need to use brute force to plow his way to the net. He did do it at the World Championship. NHL is a step up and he hasn’t been able to seamlessly use his physique to his advantage. Hopefully he’ll get there.
 
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SuzukiSZN said:
Some won’t admit but Slaf looked REALLY good. Not only the points but in general. He dominated shifts even against teams like Canada (who was way better than this year’s team).

Fantilli and Carlsson looks ok and has flashes i guess but not like Slafkovsky.
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You mention points but he didn't really produce against the good teams tbh

France, Kazakhstan, Italy, Danemark: 2+6=8 pts
Germany, Canada, Switzerland, Finland = 0+1= 1 pt

But he did show some good flashes, that's for sure
 
Michelangelo said:
You mention points but he didn't really produce against the good teams tbh

France, Kazakhstan, Italy, Danemark: 2+6=8 pts
Germany, Canada, Switzerland, Finland = 0+1= 1 pt

But he did show some good flashes, that's for sure
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I didn’t mention points necessarily I mentioned how he dominated shifts more than anything.

He did things like this all tournament and this was against canada. He kept up with Anderson and snatched the puck from him.

 
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Leonard, Benson and Reinbacher is a great group to choose from if you don't want Smith and, honestly, I'm torn. I think right now I would go Benson because IQ reigns supreme, right?

However, I look at Reinbacher and I'm thinking that there's a plausible scenario in which he becomes the most valuable player on our team.
 
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NotProkofievian said:
This has got to be my favourite prospect take of all time. ''He only does [the point of the game], I don't get why people like him?''
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"smith doesn’t have the defensive abilities, motor, or physicality"

explain to me why i keep reading comments like these.

thats why im not a fan of smith. i don't ignore red flags.
 
NekkiChiconey said:
Leonard, Benson and Reinbacher is a great group to choose from if you don't want Smith and, honestly, I'm torn. I think right now I would go Benson because IQ reigns supreme, right?

However, I look at Reinbacher and I'm thinking that there's a plausible scenario in which he becomes the most valuable player on our team.
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Add the IQ & competitiveness with his skill... and we have the elusive PPG player we've been in search for me thinks.
 
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