HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

[Jaynki]

Didn’t expect to log in and see Smith bashing today but I’m here for it lol

Not that I don’t like Smith, but I do think he’s getting a touch overrated being put into the big 4 as a new big 5. To me he and Dvorsky are a half tier below as the 5/6 in the draft.

My issue with Smith is that I think from a production standpoint he’s being overblown. No doubt that line is an amazing line but we’ll see if he’s able to find similar chemistry wherever he goes.

From a traits perspective I actually like Smith a fair bit. Good size, solid skater (not bad at all, no idea where that’s coming from), good shot, and amazing hands and vision. There are aspects of his game he need to iron out, particularly effort defensively, but I think at worst he’s a skilled offensive top 6 winger which is a pretty great floor. Don’t think Zegras is a bad comp at all.

I agree he is getting a bit overrated and like you i have him on par with Dvorsky, obviously in very different fashion. I think the big appeal with Smith is the offensive packages and the dipsy doodle. He may be the most offensively gifted player of the draft after Bedard and Michkov.

 

[Playmaker09]

I'd love to move up, but why would Columbus move back if they absolutely want to draft a Center? Unless they can guarantee that SJ drafts Michkov and not Smith, don't see how they accept.

Would it cost Dach to move up 2? And would it be worth it? That's basically trading Michkov/Smith and Dach for Carlsson.

Not Dach. Or any of our young roster players. But our entire 2023 draft, Mesar, Farrell, our 2024 first unprotected. And more, I don't care. I'm sure Columbus has a price to settle for Dvorsky, or they might get lucky and still land Smith at 5.

We have 5 rookie defensemen + Matheson and Hutson/Mailloux/Engstrom on the way, 4 young top 6 forwards with potentially PLD for free and Roy/Heineman/RHP/Beck/YlonenEvans for bottom 6. This team needs a star in the worst way, and no price (of futures) is too great.

We can trade future firsts for a goalie and maybe a D to replace Matheson in a few years and we're more than fine. We still have two in 2025 with Calgary's first and should get another for Anderson.

Not getting a star forward this year would be a colossal failure from management with the resources they have at hand.

 

[SwiftyHab]

Maybe he’ll drop to 32nd now

 

[Goldenhands]

We needed a better tank. This was the year to go all in on it.

Imagine having Carlsson centering Slaf, 2 puck possession monsters...

 

[yianik]

This exactly. Leonard is a small PF with good speed, nifty hands, great shooting skills and scoring instincts, his tools project easily at the NHL level, same with a kid like Dvorsky, both will be high quality top 6 NHLers. Benson is very talented and there is alot to like about his game, but his size/skating might limit the way he impacts the game at the NHL level as you said. Benson is highly combative, but gets handled much easier one on one meanwhile Leonard and Dvorsky are really tough to handle and win most of their physical challenges.

Ive seen alot of those USNTDP kids and Leonard definitely looks close to 6ft tall while I have hard time believing Benson height more than 5'9.

I think Leonard will be picked ahead of Benson based on his projectable tools and superior size/power.

Rank​	Player​	Position​	Projection​	Bust factor​
1​	Connor Bedard​	Center​	Franchise/Generational	Low​
2​	Leo Carlsson​	Center/LW​	Sundin/Barkov level	Low​
3​	Matvei Michkov​	RW​	Elite level player​	High (external)​
4​	Adam Fantilli​	Center​	Top line center upside	Low​
5​	David Reinbacher​	RD​	All around no.1 defenseman potential	Low​
6​	Dalibor Dvorsky​	Center​	200ft. top 6 scoring center	Low​
7​	Ryan Leonard​	RW​	Top 6 scoring power foward	Low​
8​	Otto Stenberg​	LW​	Versatile top 6 foward potential	Medium/Low​
9​	Will Smith​	Center​	Creative, offensively minded top6 potential	Medium/High​
10​	Nate Danielson​	Center​	2-way 2nd line center upside	Medium/Low​
11​	Oliver Moore​	C/W​	Dynamic all around 2nd liner	Low​
12​	Zach Benson​	LW​	Dynamic top6 pts producer upside	Medium​
13​	Gavin Brindley​	RW​	Versatile, heart and soul middle 6	Medium/Low​
14​	Axel Sandin-Pellikka​	RD​	Top 4 puckmoving PP QB upside	Medium-High​
15​	Gabe Perreault​	RW​	High skills top 6 potential	Medium/High​
16​	Anton Wahlberg​	LW​	Middle 6 power winger	Medium/Low​
17​	David Edstrom​	Center​	Middle 6 power center	Medium/Low​
18​	Colby Barlow​	LW​	Middle 6 scoring winger	Low​
19​	Maxim Strbak​	RD​	Top 4 All-around physical D	Low​
20​	Tom Willander​	RD​	Top 4 All around puckmoving D	Medium/Low
21​	Samuel Honzek​	LW​	Top 6 potential​	Medium/High​
22​	Carson Bjarnason​	G​	Starter upside​	Medium​
23​	Brayden Yager​	C/W​	Middle of the line-up	Medium/High​
24​	Eduard Salé​	RW​	Top 6 upside	High​
25​	Matthew Wood​	LW​	Top 6 upside	High​
26​	Jayden Perron​	RW​	Middle of the line-up	Medium​
27​	Riley Heidt​	LW​	Middle of the line-up	Medium​
28​	Gracyn Sawchyn​	C​	Dynamic middle 6 foward	Medium/High​
29​	Callum Ritchie​	C​	2-Way middle 6 center	Medium​

30​	Ethan Gauthier​	C​	Middle of the line-up	Medium​
31​	Tanner Molendyk​	D​	Top 4 puckmoving D upside	Medium​
32​	Quentin Musty​	LW​	Top 6 upside	Very High​

Why do you have Michkov bust potential at high from external factors, is it the contract only ?

 

[Mrb1p]

I'd say he's above average, he's not Moore but he's also not Wood.

Unrelated, but I like Carlsson a lot but he reallllllllllly needs to work on that shot. If he can learn to make it a weapon like Backstrom did around 2010 it'll help a lot, otherwise no one is going to respect it as a possibility (though he's great at driving the net).

Def not above average. Im pretty sure Wood gets around at the same speed as Smith. Smith has no power in his stride and its quite easy to see, he also doesnt possess the ability to go parallel with his skates and weave through. He appears out of balance a lot, especially when deking around opponents, thats just on his slower foot speed.

Hes the worse skater I can think of in terms of overall skating speed, edges, balance, etc in the top ~ twenty five. Wood has heavier feet but he has more power in his choppy stride and he has better balance, Dvorsky is less agile but has waaaay more power, a better stride and a much better balance, Cristall is a better skater, so is Benson. Michkov too. Bedard too. Carlsson is better.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Imagine having Carlsson centering Slaf, 2 puck possession monsters...

We might get to see it.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Hopefully nothing serious for Reinbacher, that would be pretty brutal if that’s a bad injury. Probably would cost him at least a few spots on draft day and officially remove him as an option at 5 even if I never thought he was in that mix anyway.

Kinda was hoping Carlsson would have a shit tourney but that doesn’t look like it’s going to happen either.

These two things probably mean that it really will come down to one of Smith, Dvorsky and Michkov.

 

[Habricot]

For those who have seen the game today.. how where Carlsson and Reindbacker?

 

[Goldenhands]

We might get to see it.

I think the odds are very low that Carlsson drops, he is centering Sweden top line right now at WC and doing really well from what Ive seen. But I really hope you are right, that would be insane.

 

[Balthazar]

Keep an eye on his left knee...doesn't look good.

 

[Andrewcoursol]

I dont see us picking top 10 for another 3 years. I see see us being a lotto team next year for sure and maaaaaybe the following year. But by year 3 I see us challenging for a spot

habs will have a lottery pick in 3 years thanks to the flames pick acquired in taking monahan

 

[Goldenhands]

Why do you have Michkov bust potential at high from external factors, is it the contract only ?

The whole situation doesnt look good, but I think it has been discussed enough, we are not allowed to discuss politics so I wont comment further.

 

[Playmaker09]

I'd say he's above average, he's not Moore but he's also not Wood.

Unrelated, but I like Carlsson a lot but he reallllllllllly needs to work on that shot. If he can learn to make it a weapon like Backstrom did around 2010 it'll help a lot, otherwise no one is going to respect it as a possibility (though he's great at driving the net).

Shot is the easiest thing to improve. When he's 6'3 215 in the NHL you can bet his shot is going to be heavy.

No one had Draisaitl being the 50+ goal scorer he is as a prospect. Nor Barkov, Lindholm, Nylander or Aho at 40. Point at 50.
Tim Stutzle just scored 39 after scoring 7 in his draft year in the DEL. Carlsson had a heavier shot already as a DY prospect.

Crosby and Mcdavid took one offseason to add 20+ goals and become Rocket Richard winners.

 

[NotProkofievian]

I'd say he's above average, he's not Moore but he's also not Wood.

Unrelated, but I like Carlsson a lot but he reallllllllllly needs to work on that shot. If he can learn to make it a weapon like Backstrom did around 2010 it'll help a lot, otherwise no one is going to respect it as a possibility (though he's great at driving the net).

It's the thing he needs to improve the most. Not so much the shot per se, but his willingness and readiness to shoot. The best players in the NHL shoot a lot. That's fixable, though.

 

[ginomini]

Hopefully nothing serious for Reinbacher, that would be pretty brutal if that’s a bad injury. Probably would cost him at least a few spots on draft day and officially remove him as an option at 5 even if I never thought he was in that mix anyway.

Kinda was hoping Carlsson would have a shit tourney but that doesn’t look like it’s going to happen either.

These two things probably mean that it really will come down to one of Smith, Dvorsky and Michkov.

Even if he's out for the tournament that does not change the evaluation. It's 5 games lost when he already played 56 games this year. not even 10% of his season.

 

[MON4NHLTOR4MLB]

Hopefully nothing serious for Reinbacher, that would be pretty brutal if that’s a bad injury. Probably would cost him at least a few spots on draft day and officially remove him as an option at 5 even if I never thought he was in that mix anyway.

Kinda was hoping Carlsson would have a shit tourney but that doesn’t look like it’s going to happen either.

These two things probably mean that it really will come down to one of Smith, Dvorsky and Michkov.

If they draft yet another Slovak, the fans may not be happy

 

[yianik]

The whole situation doesnt look good, but I think it has been discussed enough, we are not allowed to discuss politics so I wont comment further.

Lol. You know, when you have the no.5 pick in a deep draft, it should not be this hard

 

[SnapVirus]

Dvorsky and Reinbacher should not be in the discussion, plain and simple. Yes they are good prospect, but farrrr away from the quality of the top5. And personally i take Leonard/Benson ahead of both of them without even blinking.

 

[HabsForHire]

No. Smith and Carlsson are a lock at 5 if one of them are available. Even Michkov, Habs need really to draft that type of talent. Michkov is the best russian prospect since Ovechkin.

Ya I was keeping the rest out of it. Just Lenard and Smith.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Dvorsky and Reinbacher should not be in the discussion, plain and simple. Yes they are good prospect, but farrrr away from the quality of the top5. And personally i take Leonard/Benson ahead of both of them without even blinking.

I disagree with the idea that Leonard and Benson are ahead of Dvorsky- and so does Bobby Macs list. To me they are same tier as Reinbacher in the 7-12 range.

 

[AHShadow]

Not Dach. Or any of our young roster players. But our entire 2023 draft, Mesar, Farrell, our 2024 first unprotected. And more, I don't care. I'm sure Columbus has a price to settle for Dvorsky, or they might get lucky and still land Smith at 5.

We have 5 rookie defensemen + Matheson and Hutson/Mailloux/Engstrom on the way, 4 young top 6 forwards with potentially PLD for free and Roy/Heineman/RHP/Beck/YlonenEvans for bottom 6. This team needs a star in the worst way, and no price (of futures) is too great.

We can trade future firsts for a goalie and maybe a D to replace Matheson in a few years and we're more than fine. We still have two in 2025 with Calgary's first and should get another for Anderson.

Not getting a star forward this year would be a colossal failure from management with the resources they have at hand.

I wouldn't want to trade Dach either, but if I'm Columbus, not sure if I settle for Dvorsky + Mesar for Carlsson.

We'd need to trade them something really good for them to go down IMO. Just don't see it happening.

I'm also not trading an unprotected 2024 first. If we have Michkov at 5 and we're not drafting him, I'd entertain a trade-down to get Reinbacher or Benson.

 

[Mrb1p]

Keep an eye on his left knee...doesn't look good.

What a fluid skater tho

 

[dcyhabs]

Not Dach. Or any of our young roster players. But our entire 2023 draft, Mesar, Farrell, our 2024 first unprotected. And more, I don't care. I'm sure Columbus has a price to settle for Dvorsky, or they might get lucky and still land Smith at 5.

We have 5 rookie defensemen + Matheson and Hutson/Mailloux/Engstrom on the way, 4 young top 6 forwards with potentially PLD for free and Roy/Heineman/RHP/Beck/YlonenEvans for bottom 6. This team needs a star in the worst way, and no price (of futures) is too great.

We can trade future firsts for a goalie and maybe a D to replace Matheson in a few years and we're more than fine. We still have two in 2025 with Calgary's first and should get another for Anderson.

Not getting a star forward this year would be a colossal failure from management with the resources they have at hand.

Trading future firsts now is premature. It wouldn’t take much for those picks to be really high.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

If Michkov is still there at 5 and the other 4 are gone, what do you guys anticipate the odds are of each player being picked? I hope it's Michkov but I feel like it's more likely we go Dvorsky