Prospect Info: 2023 NHL Draft (mod warning 1st post)

[Anaheim4ever]

Yeah i know its early but 2022 draft discussion started pretty quickly too last year.
So far its #1 Bedard and #2 Mitchkov but after that what are players you are interested in for the Ducks ?
I don't see Bedard falling like Wright did at all. Who will be this years Slaf and Cooley ?

Blanket warning to everyone - the season is over, the active tanking is over, and everyone needs to remember how to get along.

Polite discussions of different viewpoints is fine. Assertions as to who is a good fan, who is a bad fan, and most particularly trolling behavior is going to result in thread bans and warnings. The vast majority of posters here are great about this. There are a few of you, on both sides of this issue, who are trying to start things, and I would advise you to carefully consider if that snarky comment you just made is worth being your last post in a thread. I would advise the folks who think that making an even snarkier response to make that same assessment. Neither of your posts will be seen by anyone else for long regardless.

It is perfectly fine to not understand how anyone could root for the team to lose. It is perfectly fine to not understand how losing has strong benefits to the franchise king term. There are gaping holes in BOTH positions, that may be discussed and debated…POLITELY.

We are all Ducks fans. Time to remember that and stop being at each other’s throats.

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[Kalv]

Wasn’t Byfield kind of like Ritchie? Produced really well in juniors due to being much bigger than their opponents? Low IQ guys who did well because they were physically ahead.

Yep.

I have been wrong on prospects before, but I remember watching that draft, waiting for our pick, and clapping for joy that they picked Byfield over Stutzle who I thought would be a sure-fire star, while I was suspicious of Byfield. Ritchie-suspicious, as you said, he succeeded like Ritchie in the OHL in a way that the tape I saw, he was just using his physical attributes over less talented kids, I did not see how it could translate that easy to the NHL...

He will get better of course, but I think they clearly passed on an even better player.

 

[nbducksfan19]

I know we are all talking ourselves into Carlsson/Fantilli as a defense mechanism for the inevitable drop to pick 3, but I am going to come out and say it - I desperately want Bedard. I think he is a franchise changer. If we miss, I think it should be a much more difficult decision to pass on Michov for Fantilli/Carlsson.

For what it's worth, after a decent amount of scouting (for which I am completely unqualified) I see it:

Tier 1: Bedard

Wide Gap

Tier 2: Michov
Tier 3: Fantilli

Tier 4: Carlsson
Smith

I do believe all these player's have a decently high probability to be first line players, with Bedard/Michov having superstar potential.

 

[AngelDuck]

I know we are all talking ourselves into Carlsson/Fantilli as a defense mechanism for the inevitable drop to pick 3, but I am going to come out and say it - I desperately want Bedard. I think he is a franchise changer. If we miss, I think it should be a much more difficult decision to pass on Michov for Fantilli/Carlsson.

For what it's worth, after a decent amount of scouting (for which I am completely unqualified) I see it:

Tier 1: Bedard

Wide Gap

Tier 2: Michov
Tier 3: Fantilli

Tier 4: Carlsson
Smith

I do believe all these player's have a decently high probability to be first line players, with Bedard/Michov having superstar potential.

This is not a crazy viewpoint to have in my opinion. And I’m definitely on board with praying we get first overall still.

25% shot though…it’s tough to get mad about it if we end up 3rd

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I don't think i'm exaggerating when I say this is one of the most critical drafts this team has had in awhile, Anaheim is going to have 7 picks in the top 100, they have a chance to really set this organization up well to hopefully start being competitive again soon I really hope the focus is on adding offensive talent up front

Anaheim is in year 2/3 of the rebuild, we are not starting the rebuild with the 2023 draft. A significant foundation has already been laid down.

• In the NHL
  • Top-6: RW Terry, C Zegras, C McTavish
  • Bottom-6: C Lundy (maybe LW Jones)
  • Defense: RD Drysdale
  • Goalie: G Dostal

• In the AHL
  • Top-6: LW Tracey, RW Perreault
  • Bottom-6: C Groulx
  • Defense: RD Helleson, RD Andersson
  • Goalie: G Alexander, G Clang

• Going Pro Next Season (notables)
  • Forward: RW Pastujov, C Gaucher, LW Nesterenko, (F King - unsigned, but rights owned)
  • Defense: LD/RD LaCombe, LD/RD Zellweger, LD/RD Hinds, LD Mintyukov

• In the system
  • Forward: RW Colangelo, C Kukkonen, F Hvidston
  • Defense: RD Moore, RD Warren, RD Luneau
  • Goalie: G Buteyets

What the Ducks system is missing in their organization are top-6 forwards, as you mentioned, specifically top-6 wingers. Anaheim can fix that with their first pick in the 2023 draft with either Bedard, Fantilli, or Carlsson by playing wing or playing center and one of Zegras or McTavish goes to wing.

Top-6 forwards LW Tracey and RW Perreault took a step backwards last year in the AHL, but the AHL was going through many transitions such as a huge roster turnover, injuries, two rookie AHL assistant coaches, a fill-in head coach, and a new AHL GM. All those factors rendered San Diego Gullible to a disastrous season. Despite all that, Tracey finished 7th overall in team scoring and Perreault finished 11th. Coincidentally enough, Tracey's jersey number is #7 and Perreault's is #11.
Aside for the AHL guys, Tracey and Perreault, the only top-6 potentials in the system are RW Pastujov and C King, with Pasta being drafted in the 3rd round and King in the 4th round. King lost a year of developing his skating because he was injured for most of his CHL season as a 20-year old. Pastujov had a great CHL season, but I don't know if his skating has vastly improved.

Last draft, we had five picks in the first four rounds (didn't have a 3rd round pick because we swapped it in the 2021 draft for D Hinds). Our forwards picks were shutdown C Gaucher at 22nd overall and double overager scorer C King in the fourth round. We passed up a couple of top-6 potential scorers in last year draft late in the first round.

This draft, we have six picks in the first three rounds: one in rd 1, three in rd 2, and two in rd 3. I know we're going to draft a top-6 forward with our first rd pick, but I don't know if we'll be swinging for a potential top-6 scoring forward with our 2nd round pick b/c we didn't last year at 22nd overall. We swung for the fences starting in the fifth round.

=== Competitiveness Timeline

We're building through the draft. I think our competitiveness will depend on how quickly our blue line prospects make it to the NHL and become established. If we're relying solely on our prospects, then we might see higher level competitiveness in three seasons.

2023-24
Fowler-xxx
LaCombe*-Drysdale
xxx-xxx
Helleson

2024-25
Fowler-Drysdale
LaCombe-Hinds*
Minty*-Zellweger*
Helleson

* = new to NHL

 

[AngelDuck]

Henrique-McTavish-Bedard
Big physical skill guy-Zegras-Terry

Would just be an absurd top 6. Hell, if the fit between Terry and Zegras never worked out, you can always move Terry to the 3rd line the way the Penguins did with Kessel during their cup years

Getting Bedard is definitely still my priority

 

[Mr Rogers]

Yep.

I have been wrong on prospects before, but I remember watching that draft, waiting for our pick, and clapping for joy that they picked Byfield over Stutzle who I thought would be a sure-fire star, while I was suspicious of Byfield. Ritchie-suspicious, as you said, he succeeded like Ritchie in the OHL in a way that the tape I saw, he was just using his physical attributes over less talented kids, I did not see how it could translate that easy to the NHL...

He will get better of course, but I think they clearly passed on an even better player.

Sam Bennett is another one, but he's had a better career than Ritchie. Byfield should've been in the AHL for the entire season. they should've let him go to town with Ontario, fed him offensive situations, QB the PP, etc, etc. Sometimes the bigger guys do take a little bit longer, they should've recognized that. i think they'd have a much better idea of what they have in him if he played an entire AHL season as well. a 16 game sample size is not enough, the NHL scorers that spent a lot of time in the AHL - Getzlaf, Perry, Terry, Spezza etc - all put up huge points. it would've been best for everyone.

 

[AngelDuck]

See, I disagree the kings screwed up his development. They were patient with him. More patient than most people thought they should have been.

He just kind of sucks. He’s not polished enough. Are his hands or puck handling supposed to be a strength? I don’t see it.
He doesn’t play physical. Doesn’t win a ton of battles for a guy his size. Doesn’t have great vision or a great shot. Not sure what hockey skills he has that I’m supposed to like at this point.

When I look at Fantili I see a faster Jonathan Toews. A guy who’s going to be in your face 20 minutes a night. A guy with very good hands and a great shot. A truly elite skater or close to it (not just someone who “moves well” for a big guy.

 

[Mr Rogers]

See, I disagree the kings screwed up his development. They were patient with him. More patient than most people thought they should have been.

He just kind of sucks. He’s not polished enough. Are his hands or puck handling supposed to be a strength? I don’t see it.
He doesn’t play physical. Doesn’t win a ton of battles for a guy his size. Doesn’t have great vision or a great shot. Not sure what hockey skills he has that I’m supposed to like at this point.

When I look at Fantili I see a faster Jonathan Toews. A guy who’s going to be in your face 20 minutes a night. A guy with very good hands and a great shot. A truly elite skater (not just someone who “moves well” for a big guy.

I think it would have been fine to have left him in the AHL for one year. after all, he was a 'project' so that would be consistent with that IMO. I mean sure, he should be showing more, if you want to believe there's a high probability of him becoming something, but I still think he should've been there instead of barely treading water at the NHL level.

 

[Mr Rogers]

 

[HanSolo]

I know we are all talking ourselves into Carlsson/Fantilli as a defense mechanism for the inevitable drop to pick 3, but I am going to come out and say it - I desperately want Bedard. I think he is a franchise changer. If we miss, I think it should be a much more difficult decision to pass on Michov for Fantilli/Carlsson.

For what it's worth, after a decent amount of scouting (for which I am completely unqualified) I see it:

Tier 1: Bedard

Wide Gap

Tier 2: Michov
Tier 3: Fantilli

Tier 4: Carlsson
Smith

I do believe all these player's have a decently high probability to be first line players, with Bedard/Michov having superstar potential.

Can I ask what it is about Carlsson that you have him in a separate tier to Fantilli?

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Wheeler released his post u18 draft rankings today on the Athletic. Couple of interesting tidbits included

- Michkov the "best prospect he's ever ranked third overall" and the "best Russian prospect since Ovie/Malkin in 2004"

- huge believer in Smith becoming a productive top six center and says that he nearly ranked him fourth over Carlsson

- has Smith's NDTP teammates Moore and Perreault up to 7th & 8th overall, and big Matthew Wood at #10.

- on the flip side he has Barlow (17th) and Danielson (20th) a fair bit lower than others

Odd ranking from Wheeler. If he thinks that much about Michkov, then he'd be in the same tier as Bedard. Instead, Wheeler says this about Michkov:

"If he were guaranteed to be coming to the NHL next fall, a centre, and an inch or two taller, he’d have a near-perfect profile for me. "

Michkov is 5'10 and 172 lbs, according to Central Scouting. Bedard is 5'10 and 185 lbs, also from Central Scouting. I don't see Bedard being a center in the NHL, especially if the Ducks win the lottery. Also, I'm getting that G Dostal getting shafted vibe due to his height, but short goalie Wolf is grabbing praises from Wheeler all over again. Dostal played in Europe before making his way to North America (NA).

I think Wheeler has an NA bias. Michkov was living off of previous years production and still considered a top-4 at midterm. Then Michkov got moved to a different KHL team and his scoring eventually sprouted, scoring at a 0.74 ppg rate. IMO, that put him back at #2 prospect since he's doing it against a men's league. Also, Carlsson's SHL playoff was amazing and bumped his ranking up right with Fantilli or higher... because Fantilli's offense got muted against tougher teams in the Big-10 tourney and Frozen Four tourney.

Will Smith being rated equally or higher than Carlsson doesn't make sense. I love Will Smith's offense, but Smith is also letting his teammates do the heavy lifting in the defensive zone in Perreault and Leonard such that Smith lives on the defensive blue line than playing defense. Smith doesn't possess the two-way game Carlsson has today nor the experience of playing against men like Carlsson does. Carlsson lead his SHL playoff team in assists, second in points, and second in plus/minus rating. Smith is an amazing offensive pony who still trying to develop that two-way game against players his own age, not against men like Carlsson.

With all that said, I still like Wheeler. Just gotta know he's also got bias too.

 

[CrazyDuck4u]

So my cousin is hosting a Draft Day BBQ.. lool.. Were all hoping and praying we get bedard. But still getting drunk..

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Look at what I found today at Tankathon...

 

[nbducksfan19]

Can I ask what it is about Carlsson that you have him in a separate tier to Fantilli?

Good question. I think with Carlsson I don't see as many special/elite traits that translate to superstardom that Fantilli has. When I watch Carlsson, I feel I am watching a professional - I think his game is just more mature. I have Fantilli higher because I look at how productive he already is, combined with his raw tools, and think he might have a bit more runway ahead of him from a development standpoint.

I will say that the gap from Fantili to Carlsson is very close. For me perhaps its just that I think Fantilli has a higher ceiling. Which is weird to say, because i think Carlsson could very well be Backstrom/Kopitar

 

[Mr Rogers]

I've wavered between the two and I think Carlsson is absolutely awesome, but with how our team is built, and the playmaking wingers we have (Terry and potentially Zegs), Fantilli seems just about tailor-made for the Ducks. I have little doubt that we already have the pieces to surround him with that would maximize his abilities.

 

[HanSolo]

Good question. I think with Carlsson I don't see as many special/elite traits that translate to superstardom that Fantilli has. When I watch Carlsson, I feel I am watching a professional - I think his game is just more mature. I have Fantilli higher because I look at how productive he already is, combined with his raw tools, and think he might have a bit more runway ahead of him from a development standpoint.

I will say that the gap from Fantili to Carlsson is very close. For me perhaps its just that I think Fantilli has a higher ceiling. Which is weird to say, because i think Carlsson could very well be Backstrom/Kopitar

I see what you're saying and for the most part I agree but I think the discrepancy pretty much comes from the fact that Fantilli plays more high energy, high event hockey. For me it comes down to, as you mentioned, Carlsson seems to do a lot of professional level things against grown men. I think both have high floors but I think Fantilli has more to adapt about his game to reach his peak upside and I think Carlsson can absolutely mold his game to be a superstar level first liner. It's not a given for either of them but I think Carlsson for me personally is right in the same tier.

Will be fun to see them both against men at the WCs.

I've wavered between the two and I think Carlsson is absolutely awesome, but with how our team is built, and the playmaking wingers we have (Terry and potentially Zegs), Fantilli seems just about tailor-made for the Ducks. I have little doubt that we already have the pieces to surround him with that would maximize his abilities.

I also see the rationale behind this thinking but in fairness, someone like Nick Backstrom didn't seem to be a natural complement to someone like Ovechkin either. I think a dependable and sensible player like Carlsson could be a nice counterbalance to someone like Z.

That said, admittedly, a line of Zegras, Terry and Fantilli would have a lot more potential for fun hockey.

 

[Son of Gib]

Good question. I think with Carlsson I don't see as many special/elite traits that translate to superstardom that Fantilli has. When I watch Carlsson, I feel I am watching a professional - I think his game is just more mature. I have Fantilli higher because I look at how productive he already is, combined with his raw tools, and think he might have a bit more runway ahead of him from a development standpoint.

I will say that the gap from Fantili to Carlsson is very close. For me perhaps its just that I think Fantilli has a higher ceiling. Which is weird to say, because i think Carlsson could very well be Backstrom/Kopitar

I agree, maybe it's just an intuition thing but I feel Fantilli would just fit so much better.

 

[Goose of Reason]

See, I disagree the kings screwed up his development. They were patient with him. More patient than most people thought they should have been.

He just kind of sucks. He’s not polished enough. Are his hands or puck handling supposed to be a strength? I don’t see it.
He doesn’t play physical. Doesn’t win a ton of battles for a guy his size. Doesn’t have great vision or a great shot. Not sure what hockey skills he has that I’m supposed to like at this point.

When I look at Fantili I see a faster Jonathan Toews. A guy who’s going to be in your face 20 minutes a night. A guy with very good hands and a great shot. A truly elite skater or close to it (not just someone who “moves well” for a big guy.

I think covid screwed up his development more than anything, plus injuries. He was still a very raw player and could have used more time in juniors, I don't think jumping to pro hockey was good for the skillset he had. People mislabeled him as a big guy that was dominating in juniors with his size, but he was a skill guy that didn't use his size all that much like you said. I think there's a pretty stark contrast between him and McTavish, who even though he was 5 inches shorter was actually just dominating guys by being stronger than all of them and was done with that league.

I don't know, I liked Byfield a lot (and its still early, its not like any of us see Drysdale as a finished product but he's older than Byfield) but definitely don't think going to the pro game so suddenly was good for him. Same with Perreault in that regard. Both guys, even with gaudy point totals, still had a lot to learn at that level.

 

[91Fedorov]

I agree, maybe it's just an intuition thing but I feel Fantilli would just fit so much better.

I feel like it's his physicality and temper. He seems like a guy PV would really like.

 

[Mr Rogers]

I see what you're saying and for the most part I agree but I think the discrepancy pretty much comes from the fact that Fantilli plays more high energy, high event hockey. For me it comes down to, as you mentioned, Carlsson seems to do a lot of professional level things against grown men. I think both have high floors but I think Fantilli has more to adapt about his game to reach his peak upside and I think Carlsson can absolutely mold his game to be a superstar level first liner. It's not a given for either of them but I think Carlsson for me personally is right in the same tier.

Will be fun to see them both against men at the WCs.


I also see the rationale behind this thinking but in fairness, someone like Nick Backstrom didn't seem to be a natural complement to someone like Ovechkin either. I think a dependable and sensible player like Carlsson could be a nice counterbalance to someone like Z.

That said, admittedly, a line of Zegras, Terry and Fantilli would have a lot more potential for fun hockey.

For sure. I actually prefer the backstrom styles generally but it just feels like Fantilli would integrate seemlessly.

 

[lwvs84]

So I think we all agree that it'll be Bedard/Fantilli/Carlsson that'll be a Duck. It should be interesting to see if the Ducks may fill the top 6 with a 1 year big contract or rental/cap casualty and try for playoffs. Same with the defense.

???-McTavish-Bedard
Henrique-Zegras-Terry

or

Henrique-McTavish-Terry
Fantilli-Zegras-??? (maybe Z gets his childhood hero Kane to sign )

or

Carlsson-McTavish-???
Henrique-Zegras-Terry

This is under the assumption that the draft pick plays this year and is started at wing. It will be interesting to see what two players would be paired with each other. Obviously it would be Bedard/McTavish and Zegras/Terry if we get 1 OA, maybe Fantilli/Zegras and McTavish/Terry and Carlsson/Terry and Zegras/McTavish (I see Bedard staying at wing with McTavish if we get him, probably Fantilli and Carlsson eventually going to C and Zegras moving to wing if we get them). Young forwards that we have in the system who could eventually fill in those other two spots are Perrault/Tracey/Gaucher/Nesterenko?

Ducks will probably still have money to spend (probably don't need to get to cap floor this year?), so getting 1-2 short term, overpaid D and a forward is possible (not probable).

 

[tomd]

So I think we all agree that it'll be Bedard/Fantilli/Carlsson that'll be a Duck. It should be interesting to see if the Ducks may fill the top 6 with a 1 year big contract or rental/cap casualty and try for playoffs. Same with the defense.

???-McTavish-Bedard
Henrique-Zegras-Terry

or

Henrique-McTavish-Terry
Fantilli-Zegras-??? (maybe Z gets his childhood hero Kane to sign )

or

Carlsson-McTavish-???
Henrique-Zegras-Terry

This is under the assumption that the draft pick plays this year and is started at wing. It will be interesting to see what two players would be paired with each other. Obviously it would be Bedard/McTavish and Zegras/Terry if we get 1 OA, maybe Fantilli/Zegras and McTavish/Terry and Carlsson/Terry and Zegras/McTavish (I see Bedard staying at wing with McTavish if we get him, probably Fantilli and Carlsson eventually going to C and Zegras moving to wing if we get them). Young forwards that we have in the system who could eventually fill in those other two spots are Perrault/Tracey/Gaucher/Nesterenko?

Ducks will probably still have money to spend (probably don't need to get to cap floor this year?), so getting 1-2 short term, overpaid D and a forward is possible (not probable).

With all due respect, this team isn't making the playoffs in 23-24 no matter who the Ducks draft.

 

[lwvs84]

With all due respect, this team isn't making the playoffs in 23-24 no matter who the Ducks draft.

It's the offseason, this isn't the time for reality! And I did say try lol. I think a good coach, development from the kids, and 2-3 decent stop gap players in the right areas could get us a lot closer than people think, but I agree we're likely not making it.

 

[nbducksfan19]

So I think we all agree that it'll be Bedard/Fantilli/Carlsson that'll be a Duck. It should be interesting to see if the Ducks may fill the top 6 with a 1 year big contract or rental/cap casualty and try for playoffs. Same with the defense.

???-McTavish-Bedard
Henrique-Zegras-Terry

or

Henrique-McTavish-Terry
Fantilli-Zegras-??? (maybe Z gets his childhood hero Kane to sign )

or

Carlsson-McTavish-???
Henrique-Zegras-Terry

This is under the assumption that the draft pick plays this year and is started at wing. It will be interesting to see what two players would be paired with each other. Obviously it would be Bedard/McTavish and Zegras/Terry if we get 1 OA, maybe Fantilli/Zegras and McTavish/Terry and Carlsson/Terry and Zegras/McTavish (I see Bedard staying at wing with McTavish if we get him, probably Fantilli and Carlsson eventually going to C and Zegras moving to wing if we get them). Young forwards that we have in the system who could eventually fill in those other two spots are Perrault/Tracey/Gaucher/Nesterenko?

Ducks will probably still have money to spend (probably don't need to get to cap floor this year?), so getting 1-2 short term, overpaid D and a forward is possible (not probable).

I guess I am in the minority, but I would think long and hard about Michov, if we don’t land Bedard. I get all the reasons why it’s a risk, and fantilli/Carlsson are elite prospects in their own right, but I just can’t ignore his ceiling.

Note: while I feel this way, my expectation is that there is a very low probability PV is considering PV with a tip 3 pick.

 

[Ducks DVM]

With all due respect, this team isn't making the playoffs in 23-24 no matter who the Ducks draft.

I think you can safely say that the Ducks won’t make the playoffs because of the players we draft this year, but it’s premature to say they don’t make the playoffs. If Verbeek decides to flip prospects for players and sign a few free agents, they could.

For the record, I rate that as a very low but not zero probability of occurring.