2023 NHL Draft June 28 and 29, Nashville, TN (Selections - 13, 39, 45, 86, 109, 141, 173, 205)

[Ehran]

If we win the lottery you take Michkov/Carlsson and trade 13 up to get Reinbacher. That talent influx to the team would just be ridiculous haha.

Not sure both our 2nd round picks have enough value to move up to 13.

 

[The Blunder Years]

Not sure both our 2nd round picks have enough value to move up to 13.

I looked at a few draft pick charts and 13, 39, 45 would have enough value to get us to 4. However, this is an obviously a deep class so we probably wouldn’t be able to trade our way into the top 4, let alone top 6 or 7. If Reinbacher is sitting there at 8-12, I think both 2nds are more than enough to move us up.

Washington and Vancouver are both likely sitting around 8-10 and have barren prospect pools. Picking up 2 picks in the top 50, while only moving back 3-5 spots wouldn’t be a bad idea for them as they can still get a great prospect at 13.

 

[Ehran]

I looked at a few draft pick charts and 13, 39, 45 would have enough value to get us to 4. However, this is an obviously a deep class so we probably wouldn’t be able to trade our way into the top 4, let alone top 6 or 7. If Reinbacher is sitting there at 8-12, I think both 2nds are more than enough to move us up.

Washington and Vancouver are both likely sitting around 8-10 and have barren prospect pools. Picking up 2 picks in the top 50, while only moving back 3-5 spots wouldn’t be a bad idea for them as they can still get a great prospect at 13.

Yes, but your original post said grab Michkov or Carlsson at 3 if we win, then trade back up to grab Rienbacher.

If we win the lottery, we no longer have pick 13 (it is replaced with pick 3), so I assumed you meant to use our 2 2nds to move up.

 

[10robinho10]

Maxim Strbak revealed 3 NHL teams with the most interest of him. He also confirmed he will take part at NHL Combine

 

[Jim Bob]

We have the ammo to get Rein if thats the guy we want. Trade as many picks as possible, our forward prospect pool is insane.

It takes two to tango and teams rarely trade back out of the top 10 merely for draft picks.

 

[Chainshot]

It takes two to tango and teams rarely trade back out of the top 10 merely for draft picks.

This should be a flashing banner the scrolls across the top of this thread.

 

[Jim Bob]

This is my yearly reminder that I need to create a Word doc with the research into how draft pick trade ups in the early first round of the NHL Draft have been really, really, really, rare over the past 10-15 years so I can just re-post it during the run up to the draft.

2022 NHL Entry Draft Transactions

Last year you did see the Yotes trade 27 + 2 2nds to SJ for 11.

2021 NHL Entry Draft Transactions

In 2021, you saw 22+2nd+5th for 14.

2020 NHL Entry Draft Transactions

www.prosportstransactions.com

In 2020, you saw 22+3rd for 19.

OK, so I did the list of the trade back trades in the top 20 picks from the past 10 NHL Drafts.

Here they are:

History of trading back in the top 20 of the NHL Draft

Hockey Draft Pick Transactions

2022: SJ traded 11 to Arizona for 27, 34, & 45

2021: Dallas traded 14 to Detroit for 22, 47, & 137

Edmonton traded 19 to Minnesota for 21 & 89

2020: Calgary traded 19 to NYR for 22 & 71

2019: Philadelphia traded 11 to Arizona for 14 & 45

2018: NONE

2017: NONE

2016: NJ traded 11 to Ottawa for 12 & 80

Philadelphia traded 18 & 79 to Winnipeg for 22 & 36

2015: NONE

2014: SJ traded 20 & 179 to Chicago for 27 & 62

2013: Detroit traded 18 to SJ for 20 & 58

So, we have 11OV being the highest pick that a team traded back from (3 times in the past 10 drafts).

In 3 years, there were no trade backs for picks in the top 20.

In 2 years, there were two trade backs in the top 20.

In 5 years, there was only one trade back in the top 20.

There were no years where there were 3+ trade backs in the top 20.

So, expecting the Sabres to be able to use one, or both, of their 2nd round picks to trade up into the top 10 to target any player would be something that has no precedent over the past 10 NHL Drafts.

To get into the top 10, it usually involves trading a significant NHL roster player, like say the Alex DeBrincat trade last year.

This would be the most comparable trade to where the Sabres are at this year: 2019: Philadelphia traded 11 to Arizona for 14 & 45. Personally, I'd rather sit at 13 and keep the second rounder than move up 2 or 3 spots.

 

[Chainshot]

It still feels too much like people are steeped in NFL draft shuffling and don't pay a lick of time on what actually happens at the NHL draft.

 

[Jim Bob]

It still feels too much like people are steeped in NFL draft shuffling and don't pay a lick of time on what actually happens at the NHL draft.

I think it is that and people getting fixated on a particular prospect or two as THE pick for their team and thinking of ways to land them without caring if there is historical precedent for their proposed trade happening.

For instance, there was a guy on Twitter that was telling me that Adams could and should use VO as the trade piece to move up from 13. He did not want to listen to any logic that VO entering the last year of his deal before UFA was not attractive to teams picking in the top 10.



The most common pushback I hear is "Hey, it COULD happen..." Or, they bring up trades that happened 15+ years ago without acknowledging that things have changed.

 

[Jim Bob]

NHL Draft Lottery power rankings: Chaos, comedy and conspiracies for Connor Bedard

Let’s go deeper than the actual odds and figure out which lottery results would lead to chaos, conspiracies and comedy.

theathletic.com

The “Which Team Might Trade Down?” Rankings​

Every year, I like to get creative and try to come up with scenarios where a team might trade down from the top spot.

Not ranked: Everybody. Sorry folks, this is one of my favorite sections each year, but there’s a difference between being creative and stupid. A generation ago this would have been in play, but today? No active GM would ever have the guts to trade the Connor Bedard pick.

 

[Jim Bob]

So, the fun debate on Sabres twitter between now and the lottery is the question of Carlsson vs Michkov at 3OV if the Sabres move up.

https://thehockeynews.com/news/the-tale-of-matvei-michkov-the-rise-fall-and-resurgence-of-a-top-prospect

I view the Sabres as one of few teams where the 3 years remaining on Michkov's KHL deal as not that bad.

Here is why:

1) I think that Michkov will sign an ELC that starts in the 2026-27 season.
2) Tuch's current deal expires after the 25-26 season and Skinner's current deal expires after the 26-27 season.
3) All of the young forwards the Sabres have on the roster and in the pipeline.

While waiting for a top 3 pick to sign his ELC is a negative for most teams, the Sabres actually have a challenge of having more good young players than roster spots. So, waiting three years and letting things develop is not a negative to me.

MM39 would be the pick for me. Hopefully #39 being retired would not be a deal breaker.

 

[EichHart]

It takes two to tango and teams rarely trade back out of the top 10 merely for draft picks.

True pretty common in nfl. So weird as nfl picks are viewed as more valuable then nhl picks

 

[Chainshot]

True pretty common in nfl. So weird as nfl picks are viewed as more valuable then nhl picks

Since it's easier to get a more complete player in the 4th or 5th round of the NFL draft than even the 2nd round of the NHL draft, I would think the NHL views their picks as far more valuable. There isn't the number of potential draftees nor the development system that pumps thousands of potential candidates into the NHL draft like there is for the NFL draft. That's part of why GM's do NOT move down often. They know that the latter a pick, the less likely that player is to meet criteria as being at least satisfactory - say a 200 game NHLer. And no amount of lower round picks makes up for lose of position because those lower round picks so infrequently bear fruit.

 

[Old Navy Goat]

It's also very much a plug and play draft compared to the NHL where you're stashing prospects. You need a CB, there's been a run well you better move up, or conversely take advantage of someone's desperation

 

[Chainshot]

So, the fun debate on Sabres twitter between now and the lottery is the question of Carlsson vs Michkov at 3OV if the Sabres move up.

https://thehockeynews.com/news/the-tale-of-matvei-michkov-the-rise-fall-and-resurgence-of-a-top-prospect

I view the Sabres as one of few teams where the 3 years remaining on Michkov's KHL deal as not that bad.

Here is why:

1) I think that Michkov will sign an ELC that starts in the 2026-27 season.
2) Tuch's current deal expires after the 25-26 season and Skinner's current deal expires after the 26-27 season.
3) All of the young forwards the Sabres have on the roster and in the pipeline.

While waiting for a top 3 pick to sign his ELC is a negative for most teams, the Sabres actually have a challenge of having more good young players than roster spots. So, waiting three years and letting things develop is not a negative to me.

MM39 would be the pick for me. Hopefully #39 being retired would not be a deal breaker.

That assumes the team selecting 2nd isn't a team that has Smith or Carlsson at 2OA on their lists.

 

[Jim Bob]

That assumes the team selecting 2nd isn't a team that has Smith or Carlsson at 2OA on their lists.

If it was Fantilli vs Michkov, I'd go Fantilli.

But, I'm taking Michkov at 3OV if 1-2 are Bedard & Fantilli.

 

[MOGlLNY]

I know we already discussed how there’s no trades within the top 10. And it wouldn’t happen, but hypothetically would you guys do this?

3rd overall

For
Brandt Clarke
Matt Roy (extension?)
LA’s 1st next year

Improves the defense next year and Clarke for the future. Keeps the pick train hummin. LA gets a young stud who can step in for their offense right away on a cheap deal

 

[Jim Bob]

I know we already discussed how there’s no trades within the top 10. And it wouldn’t happen, but hypothetically would you guys do this?

3rd overall

For
Brandt Clarke
Matt Roy (extension?)
LA’s 1st next year

Hard pass for me.

 

[MOGlLNY]

Hard pass for me.

I haven’t watched many of these guys outside of the WJC so I can’t comment on how good they’d truly be. but the idea of getting our #4 as well as a potentially elite long term RD with the option to keep the pick train humming.. I’d be in

But like I said, maybe I’m not sure how truly good these kids can be. I’ve only heard I can’t say ive watched them regularly.

 

[truthbluth]

I know we already discussed how there’s no trades within the top 10. And it wouldn’t happen, but hypothetically would you guys do this?

3rd overall

For
Brandt Clarke
Matt Roy (extension?)
LA’s 1st next year

Improves the defense next year and Clarke for the future. Keeps the pick train hummin. LA gets a young stud who can step in for their offense right away on a cheap deal

LA wouldn’t trade Clarke for 3OA straight up.

 

[Jim Bob]

I haven’t watched many of these guys outside of the WJC so I can’t comment on how good they’d truly be. but the idea of getting our #4 as well as a potentially elite long term RD with the option to keep the pick train humming.. I’d be in

But like I said, maybe I’m not sure how truly good these kids can be. I’ve only heard I can’t say ive watched them regularly.

Matt Roy is under contract for 23-24, so there is no way to have an extension in place prior to a trade that would be before the first day of the 23-24 league year.

And Clarke as a 3rd pairing guy that doesn't get PP time due to Dahlin & Power makes me feel like he isn't a great long term fit. And that is if LA would move Clarke in a deal like that.

I would rather have 3OV than most D prospects out there.

The interesting one to think about though would be the Czech Mafia deal to get Jiricek out of Columbus.

 

[EichHart]

Since it's easier to get a more complete player in the 4th or 5th round of the NFL draft than even the 2nd round of the NHL draft, I would think the NHL views their picks as far more valuable. There isn't the number of potential draftees nor the development system that pumps thousands of potential candidates into the NHL draft like there is for the NFL draft. That's part of why GM's do NOT move down often. They know that the latter a pick, the less likely that player is to meet criteria as being at least satisfactory - say a 200 game NHLer. And no amount of lower round picks makes up for lose of position because those lower round picks so infrequently bear fruit.

Guess it depends. Trade ups for QBS go for 4 + 1st round picks sometimes. Look at what Boston had back when they had their 3 1st rounders. A chance to setup their team for a decade. As were seeing more and more in the NHL, teams win cups not 1 player.

Please keep Bedard on the west coast.

 

[TheBarnIsElectric]

If Carlsson is there at 3 and we win the lottery (we won't), that's an easy decision for me.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[The Blunder Years]

Yes, but your original post said grab Michkov or Carlsson at 3 if we win, then trade back up to grab Rienbacher.

If we win the lottery, we no longer have pick 13 (it is replaced with pick 3), so I assumed you meant to use our 2 2nds to move up.

Oh my… brain fart haha. Don’t know why I was convinced on that last night I guess I need to sleep more