2023 NHL Draft June 28 and 29, Nashville, TN (Selections - 13, 39, 45, 86, 109, 141, 173, 205)

[Bendium]

Reading thru stuff, I have to say I am not in love with our pick at 13. There are a couple big forwards I find interesting but they are likely gone by then. I would likely be trading up, down, or out of the pick. If 13 can help get me a true top 4 dman, do that.

 

[Der Jaeger]

interesting tidbit about organizational position, 99% you don't discuss, and you remind yourselves not to do that

I didn't have time to listen, and won't. What did they say?

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

He also looked good with Leonard this year when they put those two together too. I still think I like Moore's overall game more than Smith on most days, TBH.

HP said they think his development could take a hit because he isn't getting top line opportunities as he's developing, which tends to hurt a player's development curve. So how high a team takes him depends on whether they think he'll get better opportunities next season...HP guys aren't sure he will.

 

[Selanne00008]

Yahoo mock has Buffalo take Perrault, with Simashev still on the board. Do not like.

I saw! Not only that but Simashev wasn't taken until I think it was 19th or 20th. Boy if we could stay at 13 and climb up into the 20s for another top end propsect that would be outstanding. I just don't know who would trade down to Philly's pick, it's so unlikely.

 

[Selanne00008]

Reading thru stuff, I have to say I am not in love with our pick at 13. There are a couple big forwards I find interesting but they are likely gone by then. I would likely be trading up, down, or out of the pick. If 13 can help get me a true top 4 dman, do that.

I don't wanna say I'm the opposite. But, at 13 someone is going to slip to us and I'm pretty excited. I think they certainly could trade up OR down as well.

Honestly, I would hope they trade down a few spots, and then be able to trade up from the philly pick. I'd rather use assets in the bag already to solidify the current D (like an Ostland or Rosen at MOST).

I don't want "too many prospects all ready for the lineup" at the sametime, and then have an entire 2023 draft class gap year where we don't have an asset to plug into the lineup.

 

[Fjordy]

I didn't have time to listen, and won't. What did they say?

Take BPA, position is not important.

 

[Ace]

BPA remains the laziest argument in sports.

It‘s a perfect one…because no one knows who the best player will turn out to be when we’re on the clock…but also ignores any nuance of tiers and rankings or debate. There’s just a magical player who fits all criteria of BPA at every pick of the draft. Amazing.

 

[Slangston]

Quick, someone talk me into ASP.

 

[Selanne00008]

BPA remains the laziest argument in sports.

It‘s a perfect one…because no one knows who the best player will turn out to be when we’re on the clock…but also ignores any nuance of tiers and rankings or debate. There’s just a magical player who fits all criteria of BPA at every pick of the draft. Amazing.

Yes but still. Gotta take BPA!

 

[Bendium]

Take BPA, position is not important.

I would normally agree, but KA so far wants to fill every hole thru development, so that throws a wrench into the concept. Until KA shows the ability to trade prospects to balance the pipeline and fill holes in the roster, the BPA route will never build a full NHL team.

 

[Digable5]

Quick, someone talk me into ASP.

Well I only just read up on it, but an Associate Safety Professional may hold positions at the technical level…..

 

[Beerz]

If they want to trade down .. there is opportunity

 

[Zach716]

Yeah I don’t think Michkov makes it to 5.

 

[Ace]

If you want to hear the two dumbest people who cover the Sabres argue about draft theory…I recommend the last 15 minutes of todays After the Whistle podcast.

Peters wont accept anything but defense with 13. Because need.

Rivet argues for BPA…before advocating trading down for Musty because he doesn’t believe in the BPA at 13 being better than Musty later. Another great moment in the discussion of Best Player Available theory.

 

[Der Jaeger]

BPA remains the laziest argument in sports.

It‘s a perfect one…because no one knows who the best player will turn out to be when we’re on the clock…but also ignores any nuance of tiers and rankings or debate. There’s just a magical player who fits all criteria of BPA at every pick of the draft. Amazing.

They aren’t mutually exclusive.

Having been in a pro team’s draft room, during the draft process and draft day, that team board is the result of the evaluation and debate. Teams argue about their board. And then settle on it.

Yes, there are tiers, or grades which are close. But when a team deviates from BPA, they deviate from year’s of scout’s work and months of internal evaluation and debate.

GMs that overrule and deviate from their board (their internal BPA list), get into trouble. Alex Nylander is exhibit 1.

 

[Gabrielor]

Baker had a great mock on Sabres live.

I take Moore, easily.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

They aren’t mutually exclusive.

Having been in a pro team’s draft room, during the draft process and draft day, that team board is the result of the evaluation and debate. Teams argue about their board. And then settle on it.

Yes, there are tiers, or grades which are close. But when a team deviates from BPA, they deviate from year’s of scout’s work and months of internal evaluation and debate.

GMs that overrule and deviate from their board (their internal BPA list), get into trouble. Alex Nylander is exhibit 1.

You're talking about the first few rounds. They only have ~100 guys ranked so there is indeed debate at the table in the later rounds where it's all about what type of warts you think you can shave off as the more flawed players develops.

 

[My Cozen Dylan]

My personal top-13:

1. Connor Bedard
2. Adam Fantilli
3. Matvei Michkov
4. Leo Carlsson
5. Will Smith
6. Zach Benson
7. David Reinbacher
8. Ryan Leonard
9. Dalibor Dvorsky
10. Oliver Moore
11. Nate Danielson
12. Axel Sandin-Pellikka
13. Dmitri Simashev

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Is there any data that backs up the "smaller the player, the more he's injured" claim that seems to be impacting small players in drafts sice...forever? And if so, is it just related to height, or to stature as well?

 

[Der Jaeger]

You're talking about the first few rounds. They only have ~100 guys ranked so there is indeed debate at the table in the later rounds where it's all about what type of warts you think you can shave off as the more flawed players develops.

If the NHL is like the NFL, they’ll evaluate, grade, and rank around 400 players.

When you get to later rounds, teams will target a player with traits or development potential, but tend to stick to their boards. The board debate for the 1995 NFL draft took nearly a month to settle. It’s tedious.

I’d bet Justin Shorter was really high on the Bills’ board for example, and stuck out as the easy BPA.

 

[Old Navy Goat]

The issue is you can't lump all small players in the same bucket. A small perimeter player is generally a lower injury risk than someone that goes to the hard areas and plays amongst the trees.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

If the NHL is like the NFL, they’ll evaluate, grade, and rank around 400 players.

When you get to later rounds, teams will target a player with traits or development potential, but tend to stick to their boards. The board debate for the 1995 NFL draft took nearly a month to settle. It’s tedious.

I’d bet Justin Shorter was really high on the Bills’ board for example, and stuck out as the easy BPA.

Forton literally said they only rank about 100 guys each year. Last year it was somewhat more, which is why he was talking about it. I'm not sure what room you were in or what year it was, but buffalo has ever once ranked anywhere close to 400 guys in oe draft.

And then you hear the likes or Armstrong and Fletcher being interviewed by merek and friedman, echoing basically the same thing. Local guys make a case for their guy at the table in later rounds. Oftentimes i depends on what you took in earlier rounds, etc. I'm just quoting people.

 

[Beerz]

Forton literally said they only rank about 100 guys each year. Last year it was somewhat more, which is why he was talking about it. I'm not sure what room you were in or what year it was, but buffalo has ever once ranked anywhere close to 400 guys in oe draft.

And then you hear the likes or Armstrong and Fletcher being interviewed by merek and friedman, echoing basically the same thing. Local guys make a case for their guy at the table in later rounds. Oftentimes i depends on what you took in earlier rounds, etc. I'm just quoting people.

He was in an NFL Draft war room

 

[Husko]

They aren’t mutually exclusive.

Having been in a pro team’s draft room, during the draft process and draft day, that team board is the result of the evaluation and debate. Teams argue about their board. And then settle on it.

Yes, there are tiers, or grades which are close. But when a team deviates from BPA, they deviate from year’s of scout’s work and months of internal evaluation and debate.

GMs that overrule and deviate from their board (their internal BPA list), get into trouble. Alex Nylander is exhibit 1.

But on the other hand, teams incorporate need/organizational strengths and weakness into their boards (whether they admit it to themselves/the outside world or not). No team truly goes BPA, they go "best player for our team." It's like you said, there's no mutual exclusion.

Is Nylander really an example of drafting for need over BPA? Sabres desperately needed defenseman and most of us wanted Chychrun and were quite annoyed when they took a winger.

 

[Ace]

My somewhat off the board but within reason mock draft that won’t happen aside from pick 1 and probably pick 4

1. Bedard. Even in a mock that shakes up expectations they’re still taking Bedard.

2. Carlsson. Verbeek is forced to go off consensus to honor his background with Yzerman. Everyone at the table yells for Fantilli. He has no choice but not to.

3. Fantilli. Columbus is taking whichever is left no matter what.

4. Smith. If he won’t touch Michkov, Grier is locked into the last of the consensus top 5 He will…touch.

5. Leonard. I wanted to go more off the board but man does it feel like Montreal has tried an ad campaign on “actually…this guy is also worthy of a top 5 pick…” since they won’t take Michkov and got themselves stuck

6. Dvorsky. Because everyone tells me they had dinner And he answered the will you play in Arizona or the howling abyss of nonexistence where we will be correctly.

7. Michkov. Briere don’t give a f***. He’s got security. He’s got another 1st and will probably get another one. And he’s not letting him go to Washington.

8. Benson. Washington lets their pick time expire because they’re panicked and crying. Gary stops the draft until they can compose themselves long enough to take Benson.

9. Honzek. Yzerman finishes scouring every mock draft on the internet for the perfect pick that most people don’t have him taking but he thinks has big upside so he can maintain his title of maverick draft genius as his team heads into an 8th straight year of missing the playoffs.

10. Danielson. Blues are safe and boring. Perfect fit.

11. Reinbacher. Canucks can’t believe they’re getting the first D off the board. Fail to realize they’re celebrating a second pair ceiling D in an incredible forward draft

12. Simashev. Bummed that Reinbacher goes one pick earlier after debating Dvorsky/Reinbacher earlier…they take Simashev just because we want him. But I can’t stay mad at our tank bros

13. We consider But, Wood, Musty and Barlow to add something new and needed to our pool. They also consider ASP and Willander to shore up long term need at RHD knowing whichever they pick becomes their top D prospect immediately. With time running out they take Perreault…salivating at both adding another small skill first round forward to the deepest pool of small skill first round forwards ever assembled…but also the money they’ll make on jersey sales.