2023 NHL Draft June 28 and 29, Nashville, TN (Selections - 13, 39, 45, 86, 109, 141, 173, 205)

[Dingo44]

My somewhat off the board but within reason mock draft that won’t happen aside from pick 1 and probably pick 4

1. Bedard. Even in a mock that shakes up expectations they’re still taking Bedard.

2. Carlsson. Verbeek is forced to go off consensus to honor his background with Yzerman. Everyone at the table yells for Fantilli. He has no choice but not to.

3. Fantilli. Columbus is taking whichever is left no matter what.

4. Smith. If he won’t touch Michkov, Grier is locked into the last of the consensus top 5 He will…touch.

5. Leonard. I wanted to go more off the board but man does it feel like Montreal has tried an ad campaign on “actually…this guy is also worthy of a top 5 pick…” since they won’t take Michkov and got themselves stuck

6. Dvorsky. Because everyone tells me they had dinner And he answered the will you play in Arizona or the howling abyss of nonexistence where we will be correctly.

7. Michkov. Briere don’t give a f***. He’s got security. He’s got another 1st and will probably get another one. And he’s not letting him go to Washington.

8. Benson. Washington lets their pick time expire because they’re panicked and crying. Gary stops the draft until they can compose themselves long enough to take Benson.

9. Honzek. Yzerman finishes scouring every mock draft on the internet for the perfect pick that most people don’t have him taking but he thinks has big upside so he can maintain his title of maverick draft genius as his team heads into an 8th straight year of missing the playoffs.

10. Danielson. Blues are safe and boring. Perfect fit.

11. Reinbacher. Canucks can’t believe they’re getting the first D off the board. Fail to realize they’re celebrating a second pair ceiling D in an incredible forward draft

12. Simashev. Bummed that Reinbacher goes one pick earlier after debating Dvorsky/Reinbacher earlier…they take Simashev just because we want him. But I can’t stay mad at our tank bros

13. We consider But, Wood, Musty and Barlow to add something new and needed to our pool. They also consider ASP and Willander to shore up long term need at RHD knowing whichever they pick becomes their top D prospect immediately. With time running out they take Perreault…salivating at both adding another small skill first round forward to the deepest pool of small skill first round forwards ever assembled…but also the money they’ll make on jersey sales.

This was pretty good. I laughed.

 

[Dirty Dog]

BPA remains the laziest argument in sports.

It‘s a perfect one…because no one knows who the best player will turn out to be when we’re on the clock…but also ignores any nuance of tiers and rankings or debate. There’s just a magical player who fits all criteria of BPA at every pick of the draft. Amazing.

BPA isn’t a forum argument. It’s the idea that a team should take the player at the top of their board (which takes into account everything including position). Rather than deviating from that list to address a specific need. I assume every team in the NHL does this given prospects can’t fill immediate needs (unlike football).

Not sure what you are arguing against?

 

[Der Jaeger]

Forton literally said they only rank about 100 guys each year. Last year it was somewhat more, which is why he was talking about it. I'm not sure what room you were in or what year it was, but buffalo has ever once ranked anywhere close to 400 guys in oe draft.

And then you hear the likes or Armstrong and Fletcher being interviewed by merek and friedman, echoing basically the same thing. Local guys make a case for their guy at the table in later rounds. Oftentimes i depends on what you took in earlier rounds, etc. I'm just quoting people.

Never heard Forton say that.

It was a football draft room, read back to what I’ve wrote.

But on the other hand, teams incorporate need/organizational strengths and weakness into their boards (whether they admit it to themselves/the outside world or not). No team truly goes BPA, they go "best player for our team." It's like you said, there's no mutual exclusion.

Is Nylander really an example of drafting for need over BPA? Sabres desperately needed defenseman and most of us wanted Chychrun and were quite annoyed when they took a winger.

That draft year, Murray was dying to add a winger for Eichel and he went with Nylander, despite his staff telling him McAvoy was the higher rated player.

 

[Aladyyn]

They aren’t mutually exclusive.

Having been in a pro team’s draft room, during the draft process and draft day, that team board is the result of the evaluation and debate. Teams argue about their board. And then settle on it.

Yes, there are tiers, or grades which are close. But when a team deviates from BPA, they deviate from year’s of scout’s work and months of internal evaluation and debate.

GMs that overrule and deviate from their board (their internal BPA list), get into trouble. Alex Nylander is exhibit 1.

Nylander was the BPA according to the Sabres draft board wasn't he?

 

[HOOats]

BPA isn’t a forum argument. It’s the idea that a team should take the player at the top of their board (which takes into account everything including position). Rather than deviating from that list to address a specific need. I assume every team in the NHL does this given prospects can’t fill immediate needs (unlike football).

Not sure what you are arguing against?

To me, in fan conversation sometimes BPA feels like a simple retort that doesn't necessarily consider all the nuts and bolts that you describe. As if it were come to using a divining rod, rather than "Highest Ranked Player on the Board" after a year of detailed work.

I'm still more interested in a concept of "Highest Value Player Available" than "BPA." Maybe it's semantics, but in my mind it would more heavily weigh positional value and role scarcity.

Like for example @Gabrielor 's RHD chart was kind of a sobering look at the league-wide dearth of quality. Big, smart, strong skaters are rare as hell, RH especially. At the same time, kids playing year-round, skills coaching, etc is going to be producing more and more skill guys, often smaller.

I guess my point is, increasingly it's going to feel like a guy falls into our lap every year that shouldn't based on their skill in a vacuum. It's kind of like drafting on NHLe alone - a guy like Simashev doesn't enter the conversation, even though if he hits he's more of a unicorn relative to the league than all but the top few forwards. Recently our FO has seemed happy to snap up skill that falls, but (barring trades) that's not a way to build a winning team outside of a video game. I'll be fascinated to see their approach moving forward.

 

[Jim Bob]

Buffalo-area prospects Gavin McCarthy, Quentin Musty grew up with Jr. Sabres, ready for NHL Draft - Buffalo Hockey Beat

Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams knows a lot of high-end local prospects like Gavin McCarthy and Quentin Musty, who could be a first-round pick Wednesday.

www.buffalohockeybeat.com

Team USA star Gabe Perreault could be intriguing NHL Draft choice for Sabres - Buffalo Hockey Beat

NASHVILLE – The genesis of NHL Draft prospect Gabe Perreault’s recording-breaking season for Team USA’s Under-18 squad began a year earlier. In 2021, Perreault arrived in Plymouth, Michigan, a skinny 16-year-old. Dan Muse, his former coach at the National Team Development Program, said the...

www.buffalohockeybeat.com

 

[Fjordy]

Buffalo-area prospects Gavin McCarthy, Quentin Musty grew up with Jr. Sabres, ready for NHL Draft - Buffalo Hockey Beat

Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams knows a lot of high-end local prospects like Gavin McCarthy and Quentin Musty, who could be a first-round pick Wednesday.

www.buffalohockeybeat.com

Team USA star Gabe Perreault could be intriguing NHL Draft choice for Sabres - Buffalo Hockey Beat

NASHVILLE – The genesis of NHL Draft prospect Gabe Perreault’s recording-breaking season for Team USA’s Under-18 squad began a year earlier. In 2021, Perreault arrived in Plymouth, Michigan, a skinny 16-year-old. Dan Muse, his former coach at the National Team Development Program, said the...

www.buffalohockeybeat.com

I would then take ASP than Perreault. But better than anyone else.

 

[Jim Bob]

I would then take ASP than Perreault. But better than anyone else.

I'd go with Perreault over ASP.

I just do not believe that ASP works out better than say Boqvist over the long haul.

And with all the shooting talent the Sabres have on the roster and in the pipeline, I think a playmaker like Perrault is a perfect fit.

 

[Fjordy]

I'd go with Perreault over ASP.

I just do not believe that ASP works out better than say Boqvist over the long haul.

And with all the shooting talent the Sabres have on the roster and in the pipeline, I think a playmaker like Perrault is a perfect fit.

Do we have enough playmakers? I mean Perreault is not physical, not big, not very fast and not the best skater, lazy on defense. I wouldn't want to take either Perreault or ASP, but if I had to choose between them, I would take ASP. Boqvist is stuck with injuries and ASP seems to be more dynamic.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Jim Bob]

Do we have enough playmakers? I mean Perreault is not physical, not big, not very fast and not the best skater, lazy on defense. I wouldn't want to take either Perreault or ASP, but if I had to choose between them, I would take ASP. Boqvist is stuck with injuries and ASP seems to be more dynamic.

I do not believe that you can ever have enough playmakers that can get shooters the puck in a position to score.

And all the knocks on Perrault could be said about another high scoring NTDP winger that worked out OK.

And it's not just Boqvist. There are a half-dozen Swedish D that went in the first round of the 2017 & 2018 Drafts that have not turned into impact NHLers that had similar pre-draft profiles as ASP. And that is on top of the Sabres not having a huge need for an offensive minded D.

If we are going to bet on a guy, I'd bet on the guy with the elite hockey IQ that just broke the single season NTDP scoring record.

 

[Fjordy]

I do not believe that you can ever have enough playmakers that can get shooters the puck in a position to score.

And all the knocks on Perrault could be said about another high scoring NTDP winger that worked out OK.

And it's not just Boqvist. There are a half-dozen Swedish D that went in the first round of the 2017 & 2018 Drafts that have not turned into impact NHLers that had similar pre-draft profiles as ASP. And that is on top of the Sabres not having a huge need for an offensive minded D.

If we are going to bet on a guy, I'd bet on the guy with the elite hockey IQ that just broke the single season NTDP scoring record.

Also, you can never have many good RDs. I mean a good top 4 RD is harder to get than a playmaker. It's a pointless controversy. I don't like Perreault, too many stoplights for me. I'm not even a fan of ASP, he's not in my top 5 or even top 7 picks, but I'd still pick him over Perreault if I had to choose between the two.

 

[RefsIdeas]

Connecting some dots and I think Moore could be the Sabres target:

- Fits the profile of what Adams is looking for. Hard-working player. High motor.

- Forton mentioned that he prefers high-end skaters rather than high-end shooters (though he did give credit to both)

- Forton said 99% of the time they don’t take positional need into account and it’s strictly BPA

- Could be nothing but I’ve felt like some Sabres reporters have hinted towards Moore

- Drafted the best skater in the draft last year in Savoie, could opt to draft the best skater in this years draft as well

 

[Fjordy]

Connecting some dots and I think Moore could be the Sabres target:

- Fits the profile of what Adams is looking for. Hard-working player. High motor.

- Forton mentioned that he prefers high-end skaters rather than high-end shooters (though he did give credit to both)

- Forton said 99% of the time they don’t take positional need into account and it’s strictly BPA

- Could be nothing but I’ve felt like some Sabres reporters have hinted towards Moore

- Drafted the best skater in the draft last year in Savoie, could opt to draft the best skater in this years draft as well

The only thing is that he may not have a high ceiling, and Adams seems to say that they choose the player who they think will be the best in the future. But I think Moore would be a good choice, otherwise he fits.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Connecting some dots and I think Moore could be the Sabres target:

- Fits the profile of what Adams is looking for. Hard-working player. High motor.

- Forton mentioned that he prefers high-end skaters rather than high-end shooters (though he did give credit to both)

- Forton said 99% of the time they don’t take positional need into account and it’s strictly BPA

- Could be nothing but I’ve felt like some Sabres reporters have hinted towards Moore

- Drafted the best skater in the draft last year in Savoie, could opt to draft the best skater in this years draft as well

I believe in previous interviews, he’s said he thinks IQ is most important - more than even skating. Which is why I wouldn’t rule out the likes of Perreault.

 

[RefsIdeas]

The only thing is that he may not have a high ceiling, and Adams seems to say that they choose the player who they think will be the best in the future. But I think Moore would be a good choice, otherwise he fits.

I think he should have a fairly high ceiling. People compare this draft to 2015 in terms of quality/depth and I’ll compare him to a 2015 draftee - Kyle Connor

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[RefsIdeas]

I believe in previous interviews, he’s said he thinks IQ is most important - more than even skating. Which is why I wouldn’t rule out the likes of Perreault.

From the EP profile on him:

“Because while it’s not a universally held position (not even within our ranks), Moore has flashed among the most creative, skilled, intelligent displays of playmaking of any player outside of the Big Four in this year’s draft.”

Forton mentioned how he believed that playmaking often times = high hockey IQ

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Barlow is one of those guys who are almost fully developed, so he probably looks better than he will be in the NHL, but I can’t help but love the player…kinda hope Adams takes a chance on a pick like that even though I’m skeptical it’ll look smart in retrospect.

 

[Jim Bob]

EF thinks that Michkov's stock is rising a bit and where people thought he wouldn't get past Washington at 8, now the feeling is that he won't get past Philly at 7.

I think he should have a fairly high ceiling. People compare this draft to 2015 in terms of quality/depth and I’ll compare him to a 2015 draftee - Kyle Connor

I think most people see more Boldy in Moore's game than a guy like Connor.

 

[HOOats]

EF thinks that Michkov's stock is rising a bit and where people thought he wouldn't get past Washington at 8, now the feeling is that he won't get past Philly at 7.

It would be annoying if Montreal gets a bounty from someone looking to jump up for Michkov. That's what this all sounds like to me.

 

[Fjordy]

I think most people see more Boldy in Moore's game than a guy like Connor.

I saw him compared to Larkin. But I like Moore a lot more than ASP or Perreault.

 

[RefsIdeas]

I think most people see more Boldy in Moore's game than a guy like Connor.

Yeah I guess I could see that too. Connor came to mind because the first time I saw Moore fly down the ice the first person I thought of was Kyle Connor. Not too many guys with that type of explosion/speed combo.

 

[Zman5778]

EF thinks that Michkov's stock is rising a bit and where people thought he wouldn't get past Washington at 8, now the feeling is that he won't get past Philly at 7.

I wonder if this is a ploy by Danny to get someone to trade into 7 with them and Danny to get more assets/picks.

Philly and Michkov have never really made a ton of sense to me, especially once Danny unloaded Provorov onto CBJ.

 

[Jim Bob]

It would be annoying if Montreal gets a bounty from someone looking to jump up for Michkov. That's what this all sounds like to me.

I bet they stick and pick one of Smith or Leonard.