Prospect Info: 2023 Draft Thread (Yotes picking #6 & #12)

[The Feckless Puck]

I would absolutely take a flyer on Michkov... if our pick is outside the top five.

There is absolutely no case whatsoever that could convince me to take him with a top-5 pick. A top-5 pick needs to be as certain as possible for success (which is why I'm never going to stop smarting from the Dylan Strome debacle), and there are too many questions about Michkov's availability for me to want him that high.

 

[MIGs Dog]

My Encyclopedia Britannica is empty on this topic. Has a Russian ever refused to play for the NHL team that drafted them? I can't imagine turning down the significantly higher salary, warm weather, and In-N-Out Burger, while also decreasing the chances of being conscripted into the Russian Army.

 

[Sm00chy]

I would absolutely take a flyer on Michkov... if our pick is outside the top five.

There is absolutely no case whatsoever that could convince me to take him with a top-5 pick. A top-5 pick needs to be as certain as possible for success (which is why I'm never going to stop smarting from the Dylan Strome debacle), and there are too many questions about Michkov's availability for me to want him that high.

That is the exact cutoff I have for him as well. #6 pick I take Michkov. I have him as the #2 best talent in the draft, but the timeline is an issue for the Yotes. That pick would really delay the rebuild and I am not sure how much appetite there is to do that with this organization. That being said he is an elite talent and if/when he comes to the NHL he is gonna be a stud.

 

[rt]

My Encyclopedia Britannica is empty on this topic. Has a Russian ever refused to play for the NHL team that drafted them? I can't imagine turning down the significantly higher salary, warm weather, and In-N-Out Burger, while also decreasing the chances of being conscripted into the Russian Army.

Sometimes they take forever to come over like Kuznetsov and Kaprizov. Sometimes they take their ball and go home like Tryamkin or Nichushkin.

 

[Jakey53]

Ridiculous numbers against college opponents.

Why is no one really talking about Smith?

 

[MIGs Dog]

Sometimes they take forever to come over like Kuznetsov and Kaprizov. Sometimes they take their ball and go home like Tryamkin or Nichushkin.

I'd love to have a Kaprizov-type player. Worth the wait.

 

[Jakey53]

That is the exact cutoff I have for him as well. #6 pick I take Michkov. I have him as the #2 best talent in the draft, but the timeline is an issue for the Yotes. That pick would really delay the rebuild and I am not sure how much appetite there is to do that with this organization. That being said he is an elite talent and if/when he comes to the NHL he is gonna be a stud.

I don't think the timeline is really an issue with the Yote's. They will be walking that tight rope until the arena is complete for the 26 season.

 

[rt]

I'd love to have a Kaprizov-type player. Worth the wait.

I made a long post looking at the legitimacy the Russian factor about four years ago. I found that there wasn’t more to worry about with Russians then with college players when it came to being unable to sign a kid you really wants to sign. It’s pretty outdated now but you might be interested:

2019 NHL Draft - June 21st - With The 14th Selection, The Coyotes.......

Kakko looked very good tonight. Can we get him, please

forums.hfboards.com

This is before the most recent round of Russian/Ukrainian shenanigans.

Cliff’s Notes:

Alright. I'll definitely accept Tryamkin. Kuznetsov is for sure another example. What else can we find...
1st and 2nd Round Russians:
1. 2014 - Scherbak(1), Goldobin(1), Barbashev(2), Kamenev(2), Letunov(2)
2. 2013 - (!)Nichushkin(1), Zadorov(1), Zykov(2)
3. 2012 - Yakupov(1), *Grigorenko(1), Vasilevsky(1)
4. 2011 - Namestnikov(1), *Khokhlachev(2), Jaskin(2), Kucherov(2)
5. 2010 - (!)Burmistrov(1), (1)Tarasenko, (!)Kuznetsov(1),
6. 2009 - Kulikov(1), Orlov(1)
7. 2008 - Filatov(1), Voynov(1), Kugryshev(2)
8. 2007 - Cherepanov(RIP), *Bashkirov(2)
* = NHL team did not offer contract
! = Possible "Russian Factor" issue

I'd put Burmistrov in a similar boat as Nichushkin. Mutual unhappiness between player and team.

2008 is interesting. Filatov was a straight bust. Voynov beat up his girlfriend and got kicked out of the country. Kurgyshev ended up in the ECHL and ended up leaving which is fine.

For me, Tryamkin and Kuznetsov are the only examples there that I'd worry about. I don't personally find this to be a particularly big deal. These Russians tend to head home when it starts to become clear they won't be impact NHLers.

 

[hbk]

SorryNotSorry to steer us on a slightly different track -- for anyone who really follows prospects, why does is seem like Michkov has fallen so much? I remember not too long ago he was a clear #2 or #3 and now it seems like everyone is just talking about Bedard, Fantilli and everyone else. Is there a reason (other than the Russian factor) for Michkov's drop? Tia

P.S. Also, thx @GermanSpitfire , appreciate the detailed breakdown on Reinbacher (as I'm sure many of us do including the lurkers of which I'm sure there are many)

Russian.

He is a clear 2 or 3 based on talent. If you don't have live viewings (AZ is one of a few organizations with boots on the ground in Russia) especially by the GM/Director of Scouting (they are going to wear this pick) you may go with a "safer" option from a getting him over to North America perspective.

Why is no one really talking about Smith?

cherry picker. questionable worth ethic.

first line skill though.

 

[Jamieh]

My Encyclopedia Britannica is empty on this topic. Has a Russian ever refused to play for the NHL team that drafted them? I can't imagine turning down the significantly higher salary, warm weather, and In-N-Out Burger, while also decreasing the chances of being conscripted into the Russian Army.

The higher salary part takes 4 years for Russian Stars. They go from making big money in KHL to Entry Level Contract in NHL. For some not all obviously, I have no idea what Michkov makes????

 

[rt]

cherry picker. questionable worth ethic.

first line skill though.

Smith also shies away from going inside at times. But he’s so talented. I’m a big fan. I’ve got him him sixth. Reminds me somewhat of Zegras maybe?

 

[Freddy Sjostrom]

Comparables added- Ex- Smith=Kuznetsov, Reinbacher=Pesce, Fantilli=JToews, Danielson=Cozens, Dvorsky=RStrome, Yager=Konecny.

 

[Freddy Sjostrom]

The higher salary part takes 4 years for Russian Stars. They go from making big money in KHL to Entry Level Contract in NHL. For some not all obviously, I have no idea what Michkov makes????

Before the war, some of big stars (like Jaskin now) were making in the 1-1.5 mill range. The average was around 300-500k. Now that the ruble is worth less, I would guess it would be around 100k minus bonuses. No idea what he makes, but i can’t imagine he will turn down an elc that leads to something he will never obtain in Russia.

 

[Jagged Ice]

No idea what he makes, but i can’t imagine he will turn down an elc that leads to something he will never obtain in Russia.

Plus a chance to get out of that hell hole.

 

[Freddy Sjostrom]

Pronman has Danielson at 5 now, Smith at 6, Reinbacher at 7. 113 more days till the draft, a lot more can happen.

 

[BAdvocate]

That is the exact cutoff I have for him as well. #6 pick I take Michkov. I have him as the #2 best talent in the draft, but the timeline is an issue for the Yotes. That pick would really delay the rebuild and I am not sure how much appetite there is to do that with this organization. That being said he is an elite talent and if/when he comes to the NHL he is gonna be a stud.

I don't think most forum40 members rebuild timeline is the same as BA. Waiting for Michkov could be part of BA's rebuild timeline.

 

[moosemeister]

I'm not worried about the timeline of him coming over. I'm worried about him telling the Coyotes to go f*** themselves. hah a

 

[hbk]

Draft stuff 18 mins in.

 

[Jagged Ice]

Has a Russian ever refused to play for the NHL team that drafted them? I can't imagine turning down the significantly higher salary, warm weather, and In-N-Out Burger, while also decreasing the chances of being conscripted into the Russian Army.

He didn't refuse to play but after two seasons Radulov bolted back to the KHL from the Preds.

 

[Dead Coyote]

I thought I heard the KHL was on the verge of collapse? I wonder if the team that drafts him pays up?

That's absolutely not true. Definitely an exaggeration. They've steadily been getting worse because their prospects and players are either going to the youth leagues in Russia and never going to the KHL before they come over, are going to different mens leagues entirely for development (SHL, NL, Liiga etc). But that doesn't mean they're going to collapse. Most of the reason pro players aren't going is because of the political climate, not because of the league or money. KHL has always had the money and been willing to spend it on guys.

IF we drafted him and IF we bought out his contract, what would that cost be? Has any Russian worth their salt not come over?

There's likely no cost to us as the player has to buy the contract out, although it might influence signing bonuses or performance bonuses we give him. There's no concrete details on the contract but supposedly it's just over 1m total, or 250k USD /yr. I've also heard 6m as a number but I doubt that's what it is as even the highest paid KHL players only get 2m USD or so right now. Remember, he signed it at 16. I don't blame him for wanting some kind of security at that age. When he gets over to NA for the draft, sees what it's like, and hears teams saying "Yeah, we'll give you the top ELC contract we can, and once that's over we'll guarantee a signing and performance bonus on your next contract and if you do well in the NHL before then you could get 8m+" we'll see if he changes his mind. Even an ELC will probably be more than what he's paid on that KHL contract.

Plus the Ruble is absolutely cratering and has been for quite a while with no end in sight. Kuzmenko for example just came over for 950k before signing a 6m contract. Kaprisov came over and signed a 925k for 2yrs before he got his 9m contract.

Last time a Russian didn't come over immediately after being drafted...well I looked through all the drafts from 2000-2018 and looked at all the guys coming from Russian leagues. There were a couple of guys who never came over to NA...because they stunk and could barely hack it in the KHL. There might be something to say about Russians in that it might be unlikely that they want to stick around and become a bottom 6 forward and just get as much time in the NHL as possible, like many other players who eventually carve out a career. But there hasn't been a 1st or 2nd round pick with talent who's been drafted and hasn't come over in the last 20+ years.

The only Russian(s) I could find that eventually made it in the NHL and produced well after being drafted without coming over relatively quickly was Sergei Makarov, who was drafted in the 12th round of the 1983 NHL draft by CGY...and then came over 7 years later...for CGY.

So the chances of Michkov a) not coming over or b) not coming over for us is extremely, extremely small in my estimation.

 

[Dead Coyote]

He didn't refuse to play but after two seasons Radulov bolted back to the KHL from the Preds.

Radulov was drafted, immediately came over and played two seasons in the QMJHL, signed his ELC, then played 2 years of his ELC and in his 3rd year went back to the KHL. At the time he was barely getting 1m. He signed a contract to go play in the KHL for slightly over 4m USD (at the time) that was tax free. I have no f***ing clue what the tax rate in TN was in 2008 but considering he came back for a 6m contract with NSH later I highly doubt they were initially offering as much as we was getting paid in the KHL.

 

[Dead Coyote]

Kuznetsov took 5 years to come over, which is still within the "expected" development time of a pick. He also only really started producing after 2 years in the NHL. I did miss him though, so that's a good point.

 

[MIGs Dog]

I don't think most forum40 members rebuild timeline is the same as BA. Waiting for Michkov could be part of BA's rebuild timeline.

How much do you think the draft lottery/draft impacts the rebuild timeline? I'm guessing a great deal.

 

[BAdvocate]

How much do you think the draft lottery/draft impacts the rebuild timeline? I'm guessing a great deal.

I think there is 1 pick that impacts the timeline...in which case it's likely Michkov is no longer in the equation. That said my point is it doesn't really matter what any forum 40 member thinks.

 

[Bonsai Tree]

If BA is half the genius we give him credit for, he will already have had serious discussions with the KHL team about buying out the latter part of Michkov's contract. As far as the geopolitical drama, we shouldn't allow anyone to force children to pay for the sins of their fathers. Not the Germans, not the Russians.