GDT: 2023 Caps NHL Draft Thread

[Cush]

Scout's Analysis: Ranking the top 60 prospects for the 2023 NHL Draft

After returning from the U18 tournament in Switzerland, and just in time for Monday's NHL draft lottery, scout Jason Bukala presents an updated ranking of his personal top 60 prospects available in 2023.

www.sportsnet.ca

 

[Holtbyisms]

So how big (or not big) is Michkov anyway. I've seen him listed as 148lbs, 159lbs, and 172lbs. That's a pretty consequential variance.

He's 170+. Those weights are old from when he first burst onto the scene and have just been copy pasta from one site to the next as they added his profile. The size difference from him to Bedard is minimal to non existent and just another Canadian darling vs evil Russian propaganda talking point.

 

[pman25]

I would probably go Michkov, Leonard, Dvorsky, Benson, Moore in that order. I don’t know enough about Benson though…I’ve seen the other four enough to feel good about that order. Benson was pretty popular top 6 lock for a while but now seems to be slipping a bit. I see comparisons from Brayden Point to Jaden Schwartz.

Leonard is a great modern day power forward that will be a perfect Oshie replacement and maybe even Tom Wilson replacement.

It’s kinda easy to play matchmaker: Dvorsky makes a ton of Slovak sense for Montreal to pair with Slaf. Philly likes USNDP players and could take Leonard or Perreault as both are headed to BC to play with Gauthier. Oliver Moore and St Louis makes sense too where he will play with Snuggerud at Minnesota. Vancouver has been looking for a RHD for years for Quinn Hughes. They can take Reinbacher

So anyway maybe that means Benson or Michkov available for us in my mock scenario. But feel pretty good in the top 8

 

[Raikkonen]

It's really the same question marks for us. How great he is? Is he going to help our team more from 2027 forward than a guy like Reinbacher, Dvorsky or Moore would? Each of them have a realistic chance of making the team in 2025, perhaps even sooner. That's few extra years. It does fit our time-line better the sooner we get help to the (Playoffs) chase. Is he going to be that much better? The situation in Russia is so unpredictable that you almost need to consider it might last a while. That means that if down the road you try to trade him, it's going to be a tough one to pull out that you'll likely lose.

That being said we did draft a (then) long-term project in Miroshnichenko last summer from Russia. So they are prepared to take the risk. But 20+ pick in an average draft is not the same as #8 in a great draft.

If the sky wont fall on earth Michkov will come one day.

 

[Roric]

I liked the idea in the trade proposals sub of trading away kuz to colorado for 27th OA. Use newly acquired cap space to offersheet laf. 4, 5 million?

 

[Rayquaza64]

On Michkov, realistically, what is there to lose to take him? Any other player available there, realistically, is 2-3 years away, while michkov is 3 years. Is it worth passing on the better talent for that possible 1 year earlier? I have no worries about him coming over, since unless some crazy thing happens that is out of the team’s and michkov’s control, he will come over once he can. (I mean, hell, we got Bogdan Trineyev to come over, and I had zero idea that he would do anything besides play in russia constantly. Getting michkov to come over with potentially Ovechkin retirement tour/how well we’ve treated Ovi makes me have few doubts that he’d come over as soon as he could.)

 

[Ovi895]

Grier traded down a lot last year, maybe if he's not sold on Michkov he'd do it again. An extra late 1st would come in handy rn. Though he doesn't care about the Russian factor at all it seems.

 

[Portable Mink]

f*** Chicago

 

[Roshi]

Tiers for me are

A) Bedard - upside: generational talent / downside: solid first liner
A-) Michkov - upside: generational talent / downside: bust
B+) Fantilli, Carlsson - upside: solid first liner / downside: solid top6er
B) Smith - upside: solid first liner / downisde: good top9er
C) someone that we draft - upside: solid top6er to complimentary topliner / downside: solid middle 6er to bust depending who you pick

So yeah, if Michkov is there for 8th overall you dont blink. You high five everyone on the way to the stage to call his name out.

I fully understand drafting a B+ guy over A- just for the upside/downside swing, and the Russian factor. But you can find tier C guys from FA, trade whatever. You will get the upside of Michkov only via draft.

 

[Brian23]

I liked the idea in the trade proposals sub of trading away kuz to colorado for 27th OA. Use newly acquired cap space to offersheet laf. 4, 5 million?

Why would they do that...?

You don't give up other teams picks, only your own for a offer sheet. And there's no way Laf is worth the 8th and probably something in the 60s for him right now.

 

[Langway]

NHL Mock Draft 1.0: How does Scott Wheeler see the first round after Connor Bedard?

With the NHL Draft Lottery complete, The Athletic's Scott Wheeler tried to figure out which players could go where in the first round.

theathletic.com

8. Washington Capitals: Ryan Leonard, RW, U.S. NTDP My ranking: No. 11 I’d bet on Matvei Michkov and David Reinbacher being atop the Capitals’ wishlist. Between Alex Ovechkin and the decision to use last year’s first-round pick on Russian Ivan Miroshnichenko, they won’t be shy in picking Russians and would have a favourable path to smoothly bringing Michkov over. They’ve also used their last three first-round picks on forwards (see: Miroshnichenko, Connor McMichael, Hendrix Lapierre), so Reinbacher would make a lot of sense. Reinbacher may also be the only non-Bedard/Fantilli to play in the NHL next year and that could be appealing to a franchise that wants to continue to push for the playoffs in this late chapter of Ovechkin’s career. With neither available though, I’d zero in on wingers Benson and Leonard, likely the two consensus top prospects left. I’ve gone Leonard because the sense I’ve gotten from scouts is that he’s going to be gone by this point (I think it’s more likely that the diminutive Benson lingers a little).

Given they still don't really know what they have in any of those forward picks it should again be about BPA and impact potential. I'm skeptical a faster ETA should be a primary motivator, at least when it comes to next season in particular. It should still largely be about upside and the player that best supplies scarce attributes whether certain elements in their game or at positions/roles hard to acquire otherwise.

Reinbacher may be the best D in this class but do you pencil him in at 3RD next season at 18 and expect it to be the best for him and the team? It would be a convenient target in some respects but relative to a forward that may take a year it would be tough to imagine that being a more significant upgrade. They could move TVR over to the left side but it's an awkward change and would still leave a questionable top 4 left side. They could make trades but that's a tough one. I could see the case over Benson maybe if Michkov/Dvorsky/Leonard are gone but they have an opportunity to add impact forward talent. Moore may be a year away at the earliest but you figure there's such vast room for improvement up front that it should continue being prioritized. Not to say there isn't room for improvement on the blueline but it stands out more on the left side vs. three RD under contract for another three seasons. Basically any other position aside from goaltender is relatively less settled. I'm certainly not so sold on CMM/Lapirere/MIro that I'd think they're good up front going forward, even if they do manage to change up the top six a good bit this off-season.

 

[Kalopsia]

Why would they do that...?

You don't give up other teams picks, only your own for a offer sheet. And there's no way Laf is worth the 8th and probably something in the 60s for him right now.

An offer sheet this summer would use 2024 picks. Still don't think I'd want to use them on an offer sheet for Laf though.

 

[Roric]

Why would they do that...?

You don't give up other teams picks, only your own for a offer sheet. And there's no way Laf is worth the 8th and probably something in the 60s for him right now.

Why not? Like Kalopsia said it's for next year's picks. Meanwhile we would still have the 8th and 27th to work with this year, with cap space left over. I think there's still a ton of untapped potential with laf

 

[bacchist]

next year's picks, which will probably not be near as high as the one we have now.

Far too early to say that. We could even have a higher pick next year. Our washed up old guys aren't getting any younger.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

An offer sheet to a massively underperforming guy feels desperate. Doesn’t feel like a Caps move to me.

Far too early to say that. We could even have a higher pick next year. Our washed up old guys aren't getting any younger.

Yup….I’d be very wary.

 

[Holtbyisms]

We're a lottery team again unless we're lucky. No chance I'm trading away our picks.

 

[kicksavedave]

Tiers for me are

A) Bedard - upside: generational talent / downside: solid first liner
A-) Michkov - upside: generational talent / downside: bust
B+) Fantilli, Carlsson - upside: solid first liner / downside: solid top6er
...
So yeah, if Michkov is there for 8th overall you dont blink. You high five everyone on the way to the stage to call his name out.

If he slides to like 6, I'd strongly consider trading up for him. He'll have incentive to come over and play with Ovi before its too late, and Miro may also provide some incentive - a countryman teammate around the same age who break in around the same time.

If a Michov and Miro top line comes to fruition it could let CMM and Lappy fill a solid 2nd line and I could enjoy watching this all develop while Ovi sails off into the record book.

 

[Cush]

Hoping for one of Benson, Perreault or Dvorsky. Worried they might jump on a dman with it being a weaker crop in the first round

Edit: this assumes Michkov is gone

 

[Random schmoe]

Pronman posted a mock draft for The Athletic this morning in which Michkov falls to the Caps.

8. Washington Capitals: Matvei Michkov, RW, SKA St. Petersburg (RUSSIA)​

I think this is the alleyway where a Michkov pick becomes realistic, plus or minus one or two picks. In very early discussions with people around the league on him, Washington or Detroit are considered the betting favorites for his landing spot. Does anyone really have a clue though? No. He could be long gone by this pick, or possibly he could drop further.

Pronman's NHL Mock Draft: Bedard goes first, but how does rest of first round shake out?

Corey Pronman projects the top 32 picks in his first mock draft of the season.

theathletic.com

 

[Langway]

Honzek & Willander top 10? Edstrom over Moore? Sale & Stramel back-to-back? That would result in a nutty deep draft if a lot of that happens. Players not in that first round: Brindley, Cristal, Gulyayev, Ziemmer, Lardis, Heidt, Perron, Sawchyn. Going to be some quality available at 40.

As far as his sense, I do believe if Montreal passes on Michkov there's a great chance he slides to 8. I've got to believe CBJ/SJS goes Carlsson/Smith, building up the middle with fairly comparable overall upside. The praise for Dvorsky/Leonard/Reinbacher would seem to establish the other main players in the 5-8 range at this point. Detroit at 9 characterized as where the draft opens up is again confirmation they're in a strong spot.

Not sure I'd opt for Reinbacher after Dvorsky/Leonard but over Benson there's a size and positional argument to be made. He's bigger than Moore, perhaps more ready for the NHL. They could start him in Hershey in the fall and have a great deal of control over his trajectory. While he's been productive I don't think he profiles as a PP1 guy and that's mostly my reservation with a top 10 D pick. Their last pick this high was Alzner. Reinbacher has more offensive upside but is he on the level of a Nemec/Jiricek, let alone Seider? I don't think so. As far as recent top 10 D picks the only ones I might bypass for him recently would be Broberg & Boqvist. I don't think he quite stacks up to even Mintyukov at 10 last year as far as upside. He seems like a measured calculation at 8 with a clear preference for Michkov/Dvorsky/Leonard sliding.

Push comes to shove I'd still mainly consider Moore's pace and raw ceiling in the middle of the ice as at least a transitional support piece, faceoff guy and PKer if not an impact player like Larkin if he figures it out. Reinbacher brings defensive value but the physicality isn't as advanced as Jiricek as a defensive mainstay. He's further along than some recent top 10 D due to versatility and maturity but it's hard to project his niche. He's good at a lot but not great at any. A relatively safe pick to play but you're likely leaving upside on the table unless you believe his processing drives him further in every area. Not sure I'd bank on that. He may largely be what he already is. Tough read and IMO short of a normal (or at least recent) top 10 quality D.

 

[Random schmoe]

It's my personal feeling that if teams at 5, 6 and 7 don't want to select Michkov, another (Detroit? Arizona?) will trade up ahead of the Caps.

 

[um]

It's my personal feeling that if teams at 5, 6 and 7 don't want to select Michkov, another (Detroit? Arizona?) will trade up ahead of the Caps.

Who knows, teams may have their own guy they desperately want. Top 10 picks are rarely traded for a reason.

Teams only have to like one player more than Michkov to pass on Michkov.

 

[Misery74]

I feel like Dvorsky could be a great option, seems almost NHL ready (outside of top 4).

 

[Rayquaza64]

 

[NatusVincere]

How is the risk (almost) as high as the possible reward? We are talking about the next Ovechkin while people keeps pushing how the next Backstrom and whoever you want to compare Fantilli to are worth more. That’s ridiculous. Otherwise, in the last few weeks three Russian top picks in Svechkov, Chibrikov and Miro have decided to come to NA...while some wannabe experts are talking about some risks that can't even be proven with an example.

Caps should trade for Michkov if he is available after the first 4 and convince him to only want to go to them (no problem with Ovi). This is a situation similar to Jagr and the Pens. A gift, plain and simple.