GDT: 2023 Caps NHL Draft Thread

[HTFN]

To wit:

 

[Roshi]

Michkov will not drop to us. Arizona takes him if his still there on their turn. They dont have any rush to anywhere as they are playing their games in garage and have no chance to win games anyways for the next year or two, so I dont see why they would mind to wait for the potential.

I dont really get excited on another blueline prospect like Reisbacher. I dont really get high on Dvorsky either, though dont really know why. Benson would be nice. Moore would be nice. Leonard or Barlow too.

but....

I still think trading the 8th pick makes most sense. As Michkov (who's timeline would actually fit pretty well to ours if he wants or has to to play the KHL contract out) wont drop that far, we are talking about a potential very good top6 player, but not a game-breaker type of. By the time this guy is ready to do his thing, we will suck. He will be in for a couple or few long losing seasons, wanting to get paid and wanting to win games. Its not going to end up well, i mean, unless we luck out and manage to do the retool on fly. On the other hand, you might get a similar player right away, in his prime, to help this team get into the playoffs.

I dont know. I do like some of the guys that will be there for 8th too. Im fine either way, I guess.

 

[Cush]

NHL Mock Draft: Connor Bedard to Blackhawks as we pick for every lottery team

The Athletic's NHL writers make the first 16 picks in the draft order. Then, Corey Pronman has NHL scouts audit the picks.

theathletic.com

Has them taking Dvorsky. Benson goes to Philly at 7

The biggest question entering the 2023 NHL Draft is: Where does Matvei Michkov go? The Athletic’s Corey Masisak answered that question early in this exercise, and although I endorse the decision I’m unsure if that’s what will actually happen on draft day. I sense a lot of caution in the industry on using a super high pick on Michkov. Taking him over Carlsson, though, would be a gutsy decision by the Grier management group.

The scouts and I agree that Benson going at No. 7 is probably too high. Despite how excellent he’s been in junior, I have reservations that a 5-foot-9, average-skating wing goes seventh; it would be counter to typical draft tendencies.

 

[trick9]

It was a pretty fine scenario. Makes it very likely for Michkov to fall to us.

#1:
Connor Bedard
- No-brainer.



#2:
Adam Fantilli
- I don't think they are going to pass up on Fantilli here.



#3:
Leo Carlsson
- Smith is intriguing here but for me, i can see them leaning this way. Blue Jackets under Jarmo is an interesting team when it comes to draft. They draft all over the map even though they do love their US players.



#4:
Will Smith
- This one is a pretty easy for me, too. Sharks need a dynamic forward. If the Blue Jackets opt for Smith instead, it doesn't shake the draft that much since Carlsson won't slip from here.

___________________________________________________________________________

This is where the draft gets interesting.



#5:
Dalibor Dvorsky
- This is propably the most interesting pick of the draft. If you asked me a while back, i would have said that they are leaning David Reinbacher for sure, because they have massive need on D. But they do have similar need at center, and they seem to have fallen for the Slovaks recently. They are also a team that has no problem drafting players from Europe.

:coyotes

#6:
David Reinbacher
- This is a really hard to predict. On one hand, you have Matvei Michkov on the board. I'm pretty confident that Arizona isn't going to lean that way though. They as a franchise desperately need good players now to draw fans in (and make a good pitch to Auston Matthews). Then there is Zach Benson, a teammate of one Conor Geekie they drafted early last summer. They do have history of picking WHL'ers early with Dylan Guenther @ 9 in 2021 too. But i think they'll lean David Reinbacher. He's a massive add to their really poor defense core and for me, the only potential #1D in this draft. This pick just got bit more interesting though as the Coyotes keep the Senators pick #12 so if they like Sandin-Pellikka, they could wait and hope he's there @ 12 and pick a forward with their own pick. I think they'll like Dvorsky too, if he is still on the board.



#7:
Ryan Leonard
- This is a hill i'm ready to die on. I think this is obviously the player Flyers are targeting. It does get interesting if he's gone already @ 7. Do they go for Moore in that case?



#8:
?
- Who should we pick if this scenario plays out? Michkov all day every day? Who is the backup plan if he's gone?​

 

[Langway]

Michkov, Leonard/Dvorsky...Moore? Moore over Benson for positional reasons? That may be my inclination. Wood also deserves consideration, though his skating brings up retrieval/pace questions as a fit. Whereas Moore is the best bet and upside play as a guy that can make an impact with retrievals, pace, off puck play and transition. Some question as to creativity and offensive sense maybe but he's got all of the tools to be a high pace 200 ft. player at a scarce position. And I think he thinks the game well enough to produce as he continues to fill out.

Winnipeg is on to the WHL final so still an opportunity for Benson to impress. He reminds me of a Jaden Schwartz type, which is perhaps debatable as a top 8 pick in this draft.

 

[Acallabeth]

I still think trading the 8th pick makes most sense. As Michkov (who's timeline would actually fit pretty well to ours if he wants or has to to play the KHL contract out) wont drop that far, we are talking about a potential very good top6 player, but not a game-breaker type of. By the time this guy is ready to do his thing, we will suck. He will be in for a couple or few long losing seasons, wanting to get paid and wanting to win games. Its not going to end up well, i mean, unless we luck out and manage to do the retool on fly. On the other hand, you might get a similar player right away, in his prime, to help this team get into the playoffs.

Figure this all comes down to whether the FO believe they can draft a star or just a good 2nd liner with that #8 pick.
If they don't expect Dvorsky/Moore/whoever to become a game-breaker, and a package of, say, Kuznetsov and 8th overall could bring in a young center (who will both improve the team next season and won't retire after that), it could be quite interesting. I mean, it's not like we'll be in a run for that Malkin Celebrity guy next year anyway.

 

[pman25]

Dvorsky and Leonard definitely got the pro-style, culture, character points for sure. Both had great tournaments, showed well against their peers, basically did everything right. Hurting Michkov/Benson is definitely the small winger stuff we are hearing now about how Mitch Marner only has like 4 goals in 30 something playoff games. If either of those guys are close to Marner, I'll take him! Playoff performance be damned.

I'm back and forth on Reinbacher. I could see him at 5 or 6 but still think all the forwards available until ~10 provide too much upside to pass on for anyone to take a defender. So St. Louis / Vancouver / Arizona pick 2 is probably the first D pick

 

[OV Rocks]

Figure this all comes down to whether the FO believe they can draft a star or just a good 2nd liner with that #8 pick.
If they don't expect Dvorsky/Moore/whoever to become a game-breaker, and a package of, say, Kuznetsov and 8th overall could bring in a young center (who will both improve the team next season and won't retire after that), it could be quite interesting. I mean, it's not like we'll be in a run for that Malkin Celebrity guy next year anyway.

Kuznetsov and 8 OA for Schmaltz and Keller....

Arizona gets 6, 8, 12 this year that has to be attractive to them

 

[Misery74]

It was a pretty fine scenario. Makes it very likely for Michkov to fall to us.

#1:
Connor Bedard
- No-brainer.



#2:
Adam Fantilli
- I don't think they are going to pass up on Fantilli here.



#3:
Leo Carlsson
- Smith is intriguing here but for me, i can see them leaning this way. Blue Jackets under Jarmo is an interesting team when it comes to draft. They draft all over the map even though they do love their US players.



#4:
Will Smith
- This one is a pretty easy for me, too. Sharks need a dynamic forward. If the Blue Jackets opt for Smith instead, it doesn't shake the draft that much since Carlsson won't slip from here.

___________________________________________________________________________

This is where the draft gets interesting.



#5:
Dalibor Dvorsky
- This is propably the most interesting pick of the draft. If you asked me a while back, i would have said that they are leaning David Reinbacher for sure, because they have massive need on D. But they do have similar need at center, and they seem to have fallen for the Slovaks recently. They are also a team that has no problem drafting players from Europe.

:coyotes

#6:
David Reinbacher
- This is a really hard to predict. On one hand, you have Matvei Michkov on the board. I'm pretty confident that Arizona isn't going to lean that way though. They as a franchise desperately need good players now to draw fans in (and make a good pitch to Auston Matthews). Then there is Zach Benson, a teammate of one Conor Geekie they drafted early last summer. They do have history of picking WHL'ers early with Dylan Guenther @ 9 in 2021 too. But i think they'll lean David Reinbacher. He's a massive add to their really poor defense core and for me, the only potential #1D in this draft. This pick just got bit more interesting though as the Coyotes keep the Senators pick #12 so if they like Sandin-Pellikka, they could wait and hope he's there @ 12 and pick a forward with their own pick. I think they'll like Dvorsky too, if he is still on the board.



#7:
Ryan Leonard
- This is a hill i'm ready to die on. I think this is obviously the player Flyers are targeting. It does get interesting if he's gone already @ 7. Do they go for Moore in that case?



#8:
?
- Who should we pick if this scenario plays out? Michkov all day every day? Who is the backup plan if he's gone?​

Everyone is fine with not seeing Michkov for 4 years? Seems rather risky.

 

[Langway]

I still think trading the 8th pick makes most sense. As Michkov (who's timeline would actually fit pretty well to ours if he wants or has to to play the KHL contract out) wont drop that far, we are talking about a potential very good top6 player, but not a game-breaker type of. By the time this guy is ready to do his thing, we will suck. He will be in for a couple or few long losing seasons, wanting to get paid and wanting to win games. Its not going to end up well, i mean, unless we luck out and manage to do the retool on fly. On the other hand, you might get a similar player right away, in his prime, to help this team get into the playoffs.

I think the main problem with this is the resulting cap structuring compared to at least a middle six type on an ELC in perhaps as soon as a year. Making the pick requires patience but it could allow them to be bigger players in UFA next year if banking on offsetting value/savings. Whether they're comfortable taking it slower like that...I doubt it. MacLellan's kind of a tense interview generally but I'm sure he's feeling it to make sure this dip was a one-off.

A couple of interesting bits from MacLellan's brief interviews. He characterized who they add at 8 as someone they'd build around. That seems like a bit of salesmanship given it's more the viewpoint of a rebuilding team and that's not really them. Do you build around Michkov, perhaps three years away? Are Dvorsky/Leonard/Moore feature talents? I've got to believe they're open to moving the pick for immediate help but there's always a trade-off with that. I'd take Nylander, for instance, but then you're adding another player due a raise. It would be one thing trading the pick if we had a stronger sense McMichael or Miroshnichenko were immanently capable of stepping into a breakthrough middle six role. As-is it's dicey projecting that at a high level.

The other interesting point was referencing a top group then a number of forwards and a couple D. They don't seem to have finalized their list yet but it would seemingly include Reinbacher & ASP in a second tier group. Either at 8 seems rich but I guess it would follow an indecisive approach to forwards generally. One could argue either D could have a safer floor relative to Moore/Benson I guess or the positional value of RD over a smaller winger but there's such vast room for improvement up front that it would be disappointing in light of a much more narrow upgrade at RD near-term.

 

[Marshall]

Interesting - on The Athletic's Draft Show Podcast, Pronman posited that Bedard was not quite a Crosby- or McDavid-level prospect, and that's the first I've heard that. Are there other opinions regarding Bedard as less-than-generational?

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Any chance that Michkov falls due to the Russian factor and other risers?

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Also, just a thought: who’s to say that Michkov can’t be bought out of his current KHL deal? It has happened many times before.

 

[itsjustsurvival]

Also, just a thought: who’s to say that Michkov can’t be bought out of his current KHL deal? It has happened many times before.

The bigger question is: Does he want to come over any earlier? Guys like Alexeyev and now Miroshnichenko are far from the norm.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

Kuznetsov and 8 OA for Schmaltz and Keller....

Arizona gets 6, 8, 12 this year that has to be attractive to them

How about Kuzy for Arizona's 12 OA this year + one of their 2024 2nd round picks (they have at least 3, IIRC). Arizona comes out with Kuzy + whoever they take at 6 OA.

Logic for them is Kuzy helps them start a path to return to winning. He can be a bridge with Keller to them possibly getting Mathews. They already have a top 5-ish prospect pool before picking at 6 OA. They may believe they could get the best out of Kuzy.

Kuzy would have to agree - the weather is nice... he may enjoy a no-pressure scenario.

If the Caps could get TWO of the names we are tossing around (Moore/Leonard/Benson/Dvorsky/Reinbacher) + Kuzy Cap Space we move the retool ahead.

Try, GMBM, try!

 

[Roric]

Kuznetsov and #8 for matthews

 

[OV Rocks]

How about Kuzy for Arizona's 12 OA this year + one of their 2024 2nd round picks (they have at least 3, IIRC). Arizona comes out with Kuzy + whoever they take at 6 OA.

Logic for them is Kuzy helps them start a path to return to winning. He can be a bridge with Keller to them possibly getting Mathews. They already have a top 5-ish prospect pool before picking at 6 OA. They may believe they could get the best out of Kuzy.

Kuzy would have to agree - the weather is nice... he may enjoy a no-pressure scenario.

If the Caps could get TWO of the names we are tossing around (Moore/Leonard/Benson/Dvorsky/Reinbacher) + Kuzy Cap Space we move the retool ahead.

Try, GMBM, try!

Don't hate it, like the creativity and certainly jump start our youth movement, I would be for it.

However, the Caps have said they are committed to icing a competitive team for Ovi, I don't see them trading Kuzy for futures

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

Kuznetsov and #8 for matthews

And I think GMBM and team will think creatively. The Kuzy + 8 OA as a chip is a possibility.

Kuzy + next year's 1st as a chip also could bring a lot of potential for a high end return. And in that scenario we would still have the 8 OA.

I would only want to do either for younger high end talent. Avoid veteran Cap hell at this point in the retool.

The nice thing about getting TWO of the names we have been discussing this year means more competition among the existing prospect pool, and any of those will be more seasoned if they become redundant/expendable and could then help return more in a trade at the deadline/next draft...

 

[itsjustsurvival]

Kuznetsov and #8 for matthews

If only.

It sucks that Toronto walked all of their stars into UFA. If they continue their implosion tomorrow and any of their stars become available, Matthews and Marner have two years of term. Nylander (who would be my choice) only has one. Makes it hard for me to figure out what I'd be willing to give up.

 

[um]

It was a pretty fine scenario. Makes it very likely for Michkov to fall to us.

#1:
Connor Bedard
- No-brainer.



#2:
Adam Fantilli
- I don't think they are going to pass up on Fantilli here.



#3:
Leo Carlsson
- Smith is intriguing here but for me, i can see them leaning this way. Blue Jackets under Jarmo is an interesting team when it comes to draft. They draft all over the map even though they do love their US players.



#4:
Will Smith
- This one is a pretty easy for me, too. Sharks need a dynamic forward. If the Blue Jackets opt for Smith instead, it doesn't shake the draft that much since Carlsson won't slip from here.

___________________________________________________________________________

This is where the draft gets interesting.



#5:
Dalibor Dvorsky
- This is propably the most interesting pick of the draft. If you asked me a while back, i would have said that they are leaning David Reinbacher for sure, because they have massive need on D. But they do have similar need at center, and they seem to have fallen for the Slovaks recently. They are also a team that has no problem drafting players from Europe.

:coyotes

#6:
David Reinbacher
- This is a really hard to predict. On one hand, you have Matvei Michkov on the board. I'm pretty confident that Arizona isn't going to lean that way though. They as a franchise desperately need good players now to draw fans in (and make a good pitch to Auston Matthews). Then there is Zach Benson, a teammate of one Conor Geekie they drafted early last summer. They do have history of picking WHL'ers early with Dylan Guenther @ 9 in 2021 too. But i think they'll lean David Reinbacher. He's a massive add to their really poor defense core and for me, the only potential #1D in this draft. This pick just got bit more interesting though as the Coyotes keep the Senators pick #12 so if they like Sandin-Pellikka, they could wait and hope he's there @ 12 and pick a forward with their own pick. I think they'll like Dvorsky too, if he is still on the board.



#7:
Ryan Leonard
- This is a hill i'm ready to die on. I think this is obviously the player Flyers are targeting. It does get interesting if he's gone already @ 7. Do they go for Moore in that case?



#8:
?
- Who should we pick if this scenario plays out? Michkov all day every day? Who is the backup plan if he's gone?​

This feels like a whole lot of wishful thinking. I think Michkov is closer to #2 than #8, but what do I know?

Heck yea to Michkov at #8, other than that I'm not sure who we should take.

 

[usiel]

Interesting - on The Athletic's Draft Show Podcast, Pronman posited that Bedard was not quite a Crosby- or McDavid-level prospect, and that's the first I've heard that. Are there other opinions regarding Bedard as less-than-generational?

Don't really pay too much attention to hype train tags like generational but for me it was obvious he's not in McDavid's class. His shot is amazing. But shoot first center position? Hrm. Lot of questions that need to get answered over the next couple of years.

 

[um]

Everyone is fine with not seeing Michkov for 4 years? Seems rather risky.

that's what happened to us with Kuznetsov, it worked out fine.

Best player available, always.

 

[Langway]

Is MacKinnon generational? Shrug. He's probably the only other 1OA I might take over Bedard. Either way...elite. He doesn't have McDavid's skating nor Crosby's forechecking but he's arguably a deadlier finisher and handler. MacKinnon is also bigger and faster so I can buy pumping the breaks a bit but it's splitting hairs. Really only Crosby had a more dominant draft year. Hard to understate how unstoppable Bedard was without much of a supporting cast.

Give Bedard any kind of support that can make him more effective and he should feast. In Chicago now it's hard to say what his supporting cast will look like initially and it may hold him back a bit. They'll add at least some stopgaps...maybe bringing Kane back to ride shotgun and show him the ropes (albeit maybe not an ideal mentor!). If he's got any kind of decent support he should be over a point-per-game impact player next year. Chicago has about $40M in cap space to work with. This is maybe not a year to blow all of it but they've got flexibility to be a major player for cap dumps.

 

[HecticGlow]

I think for me the ‘generational talent’ argument is best understood as how does that player on their own change the effectiveness of the entire lineup around them, and how do they elevate the players with them? The genius of players like Crosby is how you can stick two guys who would be solid but unremarkable second or third liners with him and still get an elite line and production out of them. Can they take a weak team and make them at least solid without any other major changes? Can they take a good team and make them great? Think about what the Caps of 2010-2017 looked like with and without Ovi - he is so exceptional it takes pressure off (and attention away from) other players in the lineup which helps them succeed.

As for what we do with the pick… I’m not sure what GMBM is going to decide. I suspect if we trade the pick for an established top-6 forward, which seems plausible, we will almost certainly lose the trade but it will give the most value to the current window. Alternatively perhaps if we draft a guy like Dvorsky who is only a year or two away, it gives GMBM more comfort in trading a Lapierre or a McMichael for immediate support.

Personally, I’d rather take a chance on a guy who’s likely to fill a 1C or 2C spot in two or three years time than trade it away.

 

[Langway]

Wheeler: Thoughts and takeaways after the 2023 NHL Draft Lottery

Now that the order for the front half of the first round of the 2023 NHL Draft is set, here’s what Scott Wheeler’s thinking about.

theathletic.com

Of the teams picking in the top 10, six drafted a Russian and four did not in 2022. One of the teams that didn’t was the Blackhawks, who can be safely removed from the Michkov debate regardless. The others were San Jose, Montreal and Philadelphia.

Interesting bit of info here re: the teams picking 4, 5 & 7. Maybe something, maybe not. With ANA/CBJ likely being too early it stacks up pretty well for a slide. With MTL's second first rounder now looking to be more in the 29-32 range compared to 17ish there's likely less appetite to roll the dice at 5. Chances are there will not be comparable impact to be had at the end of the first. ARI has arena/market complications that, even with another pick at 12, makes you wonder if they'd be comfortable making that pick. Teams could look to move up but for a player perhaps three years out?

I think MTL is the big pivot point. If they opt for the center Dvorsky for more of a floor/character/foundation reasoning then the slide is officially on. (I have a hard time seeing either CBJ or SJS taking him at 3/4 with the quality centers that will be on the board.)