GDT: 2023 Caps NHL Draft Thread

[usiel]

Watching the playoffs it's evident just how valuable a heavy, dogged, fast forecheck is. Who gets buy-in to execute across the board and who neutralizes it? In light of that I, again, won't be very surprised if a smaller winger or two slid. Michkov and Benson are smart enough to overcome size concerns but you wonder how readily they'll be perceived as essential core pieces relative to bigger, perhaps more complete players like Reinbacher, Dvorsky or Leonard. It may be a bit rich for bad teams to think ahead to playoff style hockey but from a team culture and leadership standpoint bigger, more complete players are arguably just as or more valuable. Bad teams need to score enough to make the playoffs to begin with so there's a balance to strike. But I'd still wager the more overall complete types go higher than some "talent" evaluators because teams have so much on the line. It's not just about individual assessments but the aspirational hopes teams are seeking to make a reality. That goes beyond sheer skill level or raw upside into many other areas that drive value and team success.

We're also seeing the limitation of sheer star power in general in the playoffs..with the possible exception of a couple of absolute phenoms in McDavid/Draisaitl. Bedard is the only phenom in this draft. Fantilli is quite good but not quite that. Heavier players like Tkachuk and Hintz show the value of bigger body presences. This draft doesn't have a wealth of them but you wonder if it may help some of the bigger forwards available like Wood, Honzek and But.

Bolded is pretty spot on for me.

 

[usiel]

Single sim for today NHL tankathon caps stay at #8.

 

[Langway]

Wheeler's NHL Draft mailbag: Will Smith vs. Leo Carlsson, Adam Fantilli vs. Jack Eichel

The Athletic's Scott Wheeler answers some of the biggest questions surrounding the upcoming 2023 NHL Draft.

theathletic.com

Pending the results of the draft lottery and the conversations I’m going to have with folks at the Scouting Combine, I think Bedard-into-Fantilliinto-Carlsson-into-Smith is the most likely of the possible outcomes at the top of the draft. When push comes to shove, I think teams are going to have a tough time taking Michkov in the top four because of the talent of those four other players (I don’t expect Michkov to fall out of the top 10 but I wouldn’t be surprised if he were picked No. 6-8 somewhere, either). And if they do, there’s no reason a bottom-feeding team should be upset about taking a player of Smith’s talent fifth.

 

[Marshall]

From Scott Wheeler's mailbag this morning:

"Pending the results of the draft lottery and the conversations I’m going to have with folks at the Scouting Combine, I think Bedard-into-Fantilli-into-Carlsson-into-Smith is the most likely of the possible outcomes at the top of the draft. When push comes to shove, I think teams are going to have a tough time taking Michkov in the top four because of the talent of those four other players (I don’t expect Michkov to fall out of the top 10 but I wouldn’t be surprised if he were picked No. 6-8 somewhere, either)."

Red Caps: The Next Wave?

 

[Silky mitts]

Wow those are pretty different for some others so I find it interesting. He is definitely weighting on size mass the fourth pick it seems to me.

Player	CONSENSUS RANK	Pronman	Wheeler	McKenzie
Connor Bedard	1	1	1	1
Adam Fantilli	2	3	2	2
Matvei Michkov	3	2	3	4
Leo Carlsson	4	4	4	3
Will Smith	5	6	5	6
Zach Benson	6	13	6	5
Dalibor Dvorsky	7	11	8	9
Colby Barlow	8	9	14	8
Brayden Yager	9	12	13	7
Oliver Moore	10	14	9	11
Eduard Sale	11	16	10	12
Ryan Leonard	12	15	15	10
Nate Danielson	13	5	22	15
David Reinbacher	14	7	17	20
Matthew Wood	15	19	12	14
Gabriel Perrault	T16	21	11	23
Calum Ritchie	T16	23	19	13
Samuel Honzek	T18	10	27	19
Axel Sandin Pellikka	T18	18	21	17
Andrew Cristall	20	33	7	18
Daniil But	21	8	31	25

Average rankings from late March, I’ll update these with Pronman and Wheeler‘s new ranking plus Bobby’s

 

[Langway]

Plenty of intrigue after Connor Bedard in Bob McKenzie's NHL Draft Lottery Edition ranking | TSN

There is no doubt whatsoever who will be taken No. 1 overall in the talent-laden 2023 NHL Draft. Beyond that, though, at Nos. 2 through 5? Check out TSN Hockey Insider Bob McKenzie's Top 12 Lottery Edition Draft Ranking.

www.tsn.ca

Russian sniper Michkov rounds out TSN’s Draft Lottery Edition Top 5, down one slot from No. 4 on TSN’s mid-season list. But the reality is that Michkov’s evaluation is so difficult. Because of his sublime goal-scoring ability, it’s easy to cite him as the second, third, fourth or fifth best prospect in the draft but it’s quite another to envision him being taken in any of those slots.

Because of his KHL contract status in Russia, Michkov would not be able to play in the NHL until at least the 2026-27 season. And due to Russia’s attack of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions against Russian hockey, the goal-scoring winger will simply not have been scouted in person as intensively as the other top prospects.

Michkov may be a potential NHL superstar, but many clubs have varying concerns that will likely push him down the draft board. To what extent, no one really knows.

Owing to the number of top-notch alternatives, many believe it’s doubtful he would be taken in the top five....

The uncertainty and jockeying for position behind Bedard in this draft is palpable when talking to the scouts. If there are a handful of prospects — Dvorsky, Leonard, Benson and Perreault — who could push for a spot in the top five, there are at least that many who didn’t quite make TSN’s Top 12 this week but who could be strong considerations in that 6-12 range.

Dvorsky 6, Leonard 7, Benson 8, Perreault 9, Reinbacher 10, Barlow 11, Wood 12. Moore is among the HMs along with Danielson, Honzek, ASP and Yager. Surprised Moore is that low due to positional value alone but, as said, it's fluid. Essentially...the draft starts at 5.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I think it’s time we stop being the home for wayward Russians lol…no way on Michkov for me….we can’t wait for a guy like that.

 

[Langway]

Wayward?

If 5-6-7 goes Dvorsky/Leonard/Benson I'd still make the investment on Michkov. Moore would be the most intriguing alternative given his center value and skating. But compared to another winger or Reinbacher I don't think it would be a terribly hard decision to go with Michkov.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Wayward?

If 5-6-7 goes Dvorsky/Leonard/Benson I'd still make the investment on Michkov. Moore would be the most intriguing alternative given his center value and skating. But compared to another winger or Reinbacher I don't think it would be a terribly hard decision to go with Michkov.

If you want a quick franchise turnaround….you don’t pick him. Too many unknowns where World events could delay his impact.

 

[Langway]

If you want a quick franchise turnaround...you trade the pick, right? It's just that there's a price to be paid for immediacy and mostly it comes at the expense of upside, something they can't really afford to sacrifice.

I think it's best to use this pick as a long-term investment separate from any current woes and to handle the rest responsibly and patiently as opportunities present themselves. Desperation should only dictate activity to a point. It's still got to be limited by a responsible dose of perspective. How active and aggressive should they be if it's still going to feature some fairly limited vets? There's probably no shortcutting a meaningful turnaround given some of their limitations. They can and should shake it up but realistically they're still likely to be some distance behind CAR/NJD at the very least. What they need most is a functional developmental system again. Putting that in place and focusing more on value in the short-term is likely the way to go. Maintain flexibility and then maybe once there's resolution with 19 they can be aggressive. Hard to say if this off-season overall is the time for that, as much as I'm sure they'd like it to be.

 

[Silky mitts]

Pretty comfortable with Bob's top 9 after watching U18s

Plenty of intrigue after Connor Bedard in Bob McKenzie's NHL Draft Lottery Edition ranking | TSN

There is no doubt whatsoever who will be taken No. 1 overall in the talent-laden 2023 NHL Draft. Beyond that, though, at Nos. 2 through 5? Check out TSN Hockey Insider Bob McKenzie's Top 12 Lottery Edition Draft Ranking.

www.tsn.ca

 

[g00n]

2nd try today.

Super-mega-anti-jinx

 

[Roric]

2nd OA with my sim today. Philly got Bedard

Fantilli come on down

 

[pman25]

Vancouver, Montreal today. Bumped down to 9, sorry folks

 

[BiPolar Caps]

If the draft order stays the same, can we entice someone with Kuznetsov and the 8th pick to move up a few spots.

 

[CapsCrazyX17]

If the draft order stays the same, can we entice someone with Kuznetsov and the 8th pick to move up a few spots.

With Kuzy's contract and recent performance I don't think that would work as a good incentive. However, if the Caps end up bringing back Orlov at a decent contract then I think they can use Fever as a good trade piece to move up...

 

[Langway]

The biggest argument in favor of Michkov is they're unlikely to be in position for a higher upside player any time soon. This is a top five player most any year. In some down years you may not even get that. To have that in their hip pocket gives them a head start on any rebuild down the line. And as a smaller winger he's maybe not so transcendental that he would hold up a tank if that's their inclination and the team around him is lacking in key areas. Maybe then he's not a true franchise talent. That remains to be seen. Kaprizov comparisons are pretty apt IMO. I don't think it's plain robbery getting him at 8. It's understandable all things considered in a complicated situation. But if he's going to make it they have a better infrastructure than most. And, who knows, maybe it's not three years until he comes over. Maybe it's one or two. His status at SKA remains up in the air.

With the top four seemingly pretty entrenched it's Michkov all day for me. After him is more muddled. Dvorsky & Leonard are pretty competitive, well-rounded second-liners probably. Fine potential all-around leaders, albeit maybe not quite first-liners. Then I'd probably shoot for upside in Moore over Benson and the field, in part since the center position is so unsettled going forward.

 

[um]

I think it’s time we stop being the home for wayward Russians lol…no way on Michkov for me….we can’t wait for a guy like that.

We’ll be waiting for a guy selected #8 no matter what.

 

[Jags]

If you want a quick franchise turnaround...you trade the pick, right? It's just that there's a price to be paid for immediacy and mostly it comes at the expense of upside, something they can't really afford to sacrifice.

100% this. If we end up at 8 and Michkov falls to us, we'd be bonkers not to take him. Turns out Miro had an out he could exercise in his KHL deal. For all we know that's commonplace now and Michkov has something similar. And even if he doesn't, a couple years isn't the end of the world.

If anyone's operating under the notion that we use this pick AND it pays dividends for us immediately, then we absolutely must land #1 or #2. No other scenario nets us an impact roster player immediately unless we trade the pick.

Dealing the pick only makes sense if MacLellan knows for sure by the time he's on the clock that at least 2 (preferably 3) of the following things are done deals: Nick retires, Kuznetsov is traded, Mantha is traded, Oshie is moved or retires. That's the kind of cap space we'd need to dramatically reshape our roster into something that could realistically compete, and even then it'd mostly have to be done via trade cuz the FA market isn't looking too hot.

Otherwise, we accept that Ovi only gets another Cup if we trade him and 895 is our consolation prize, and we focus on aggressive turnover, more clever GMBM moves, and prospect development to make those years as competitive and fun to watch as possible.

 

[Rayquaza64]

It would be nuts to not take Michkov if he’s available. I have little concern about him coming over. Obviously I can’t predict the future when it comes to certain events, but I think it would have go drastic for it to prevent a russian hockey player from coming over. Anyways, lets just hope the balls bounce in our favor on monday, yeah?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If you want a quick franchise turnaround...you trade the pick, right? It's just that there's a price to be paid for immediacy and mostly it comes at the expense of upside, something they can't really afford to sacrifice.

I think it's best to use this pick as a long-term investment separate from any current woes and to handle the rest responsibly and patiently as opportunities present themselves. Desperation should only dictate activity to a point. It's still got to be limited by a responsible dose of perspective. How active and aggressive should they be if it's still going to feature some fairly limited vets? There's probably no shortcutting a meaningful turnaround given some of their limitations. They can and should shake it up but realistically they're still likely to be some distance behind CAR/NJD at the very least. What they need most is a functional developmental system again. Putting that in place and focusing more on value in the short-term is likely the way to go. Maintain flexibility and then maybe once there's resolution with 19 they can be aggressive. Hard to say if this off-season overall is the time for that, as much as I'm sure they'd like it to be.

That might end up being the way if they don’t like anyone at 8….I think it would have to be for a core addition-type player and therefor unlikely….

 

[OV Rocks]

If Michkov is there at 8, even maybe 6 and Caps move up, the Caps are taking him. The Miro pick, Lapierre pick, heck even the Samsonov pick, proves the Caps will always draft the best player available regardless, injured Lapierre, Miro's health, and a goalie prove that. Ross Mahoney will always take the best player available

 

[Calicaps]

If Michkov is there at 8, even maybe 6 and Caps move up, the Caps are taking him. The Miro pick, Lapierre pick, heck even the Samsonov pick, proves the Caps will always draft the best player available regardless, injured Lapierre, Miro's health, and a goalie prove that. Ross Mahoney will always take the best player available

This. As he should.

 

[Acallabeth]

If anyone's operating under the notion that we use this pick AND it pays dividends for us immediately, then we absolutely must land #1 or #2. No other scenario nets us an impact roster player immediately unless we trade the pick.

The dividends will probably be the Caps staying a borderline playoff team for another year or two, but not a Cup contender; even landing #1 pick won't magically make Ovechkin and Oshie younger, Backstrom healthier and Kuznetsov grittier. Then we enter a rebuild without high draft picks as the core retires.

 

[Calicaps]

The dividends will probably be the Caps staying a borderline playoff team for another year or two, but not a Cup contender; even landing #1 pick won't magically make Ovechkin and Oshie younger, Backstrom healthier and Kuznetsov grittier. Then we enter a rebuild without high draft picks as the core retires.

At that point, it won't take long to be getting high draft picks though.