GDT: 2023 Caps NHL Draft Thread

[AlexModvechkin8]

Size is less of an issue in todays league if you can skate.

McDavid can skate, obviously.

Bedard is an excellent skater.

My best comp for Bedard is Yzerman.

Interesting comparison and a pretty good one. Yzerman eventually had to reinvent his game and sacrifice offense in order to be a better two-way player which also could have parallels with Bedard’s career arc.

 

[Langway]

If Michkov slides right now I don't see it farther than 6. I don't think a team picking at 7 would pass on him for a Dvorsky or Sale type guy. I think there is a drop after the top 6, then a group of 8 forwards and 2 D, than depending on what kind of player you want its hard to predict.

It would more likely be Reinbacher, Leonard or Moore I'd think. In addition to stylistic/size concerns there's a later ETA and his nationality. Teams with shakier histories with Russians may be scared whether he'd come over in three years. While they could trade his rights later it's an additional layer of uncertainty, an additional layer of establishing a tight relationship to secure his services. At the very least Michkov is going to need to sell himself the week of the draft face-to-face with clubs.

I don't think Arizona takes him at 6. At 7 Philadelphia has a history with US players so Moore or Leonard could fit. (Edit: There's also the Fedotov situation to consider re: the Flyers.) All along I've believed Montreal should be the team that takes him at 5 since they have Florida's first for a more immediate return and insurance. If they pass it becomes conceivable he makes it to 8. Would GMs trade up earlier for a player that won't improve their chances for three years (if then)? Who knows if they'll still be in charge? That also goes for the Caps given that there's pressure to rebound and 2026 may not align with Ovechkin still playing. At his size and with no international barometer (lately) a slide isn't that much of a stretch. It would be the biggest slide in recent history IMO but the geopolitical angle alone complicates it for some.

Easy pass on Holtz for the 8th pick. He hasn't done enough to maintain that level value. He doesn't look to be much of a two-way player or play-driver. He's got skill but may be a top six or nothing guy in a league where it doesn't fly without more impact talent.

 

[Random schmoe]

I'm always a BPA guy. Only 2-3 players from this draft will be in the NHL (and making a positive impact on a team) within the next two seasons, and a lot can happen with their other prospect in that time frame.

Break

Is there any word on how long Fantilli is expected to stay in the NCAA? Like, has he talked about wanting to stay until he graduates (and do people in the know believe that?)

 

[Langway]

One more year tops for Fantilli but more likely I'd guess he's in the NHL next year.

Oliver Moore is the 2023 NHL Draft prospect who makes fast players look slow

Moore could be a top-10 pick in the 2023 NHL Draft, with "God-given" speed and athleticism currently on display at the 2023 U18 worlds.

theathletic.com

“For me, Oliver drives the team. He drives the team on the ice, off the ice. He just does everything so hard,” Galivan said.“He’s not a loud guy, he’s not rah-rah or any of that. He leads by example and he has been a fantastic influence on not just the ’05 birth year but the ’06 birth year. He’s a captain for a reason. All of the physical attributes, all that stuff’s great, but he’s a hell of a leader, which is tough to do in this group of kids because they’re all the same age so to stand out in that regard is not easy. There’s a lot of really good leaders in this group and I think Oliver’s even probably a step ahead of them in that.”...

“All of the stuff that’s not sexy and cool, he enjoys that. And that’s a really special thing because if you’re going to play hockey for a long time, not all of that stuff can be a chore. For him to have that at 18 is pretty damn cool,” Galivan said.“ And he has put a ton of intent in terms of how he trains. Whether we’re doing a breathing exercise, a mobility exercise, a speed or strength exercise, everything is done with complete intent."

The processing may need some work at times but he can be as good as he wants to be.

 

[EroCaps]

Interesting comparison and a pretty good one. Yzerman eventually had to reinvent his game and sacrifice offense in order to be a better two-way player which also could have parallels with Bedard’s career arc.

Yeah, people tend to forget Stevey Y was a fairly flashy one way player in his youth.

Bedard is probably a bit more talented but we’ll see.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Yeah, people tend to forget Stevey Y was a fairly flashy one way player in his youth.

Bedard is probably a bit more talented but we’ll see.

He was one of the best one on one players of all time when he was young…”fairly flashy”…. Man I hope Bedard is that good….

 

[Silky mitts]

Sickest bar down goal I’ve ever seen

Can do that at 16! I don’t want the lotto to happen because I love having 6% of him, it’s like Schodingers Bedard

 

[pman25]

Watched more ASP and I do see why some push him to the top 10. I think he is closer to a Hughes/Karlsson type than a Lundkvist/Boqvist type. Still don't know if we take him though with Chesley and Iorio already in the depth chart but i like him from a pure upside standpoint compared to the forwards that might be available there.

I agree, Philly is likely to go for a USNDP player like Moore or Leonard. I have Barlow as a potential guy for them too. Michkov makes sense for Montreal/Chicago who have two firsts. Yager is peaking at the right time, wonder if that elevates him back to top 10 (if he ever left).

 

[usiel]

Watched more ASP and I do see why some push him to the top 10. I think he is closer to a Hughes/Karlsson type than a Lundkvist/Boqvist type. Still don't know if we take him though with Chesley and Iorio already in the depth chart but i like him from a pure upside standpoint compared to the forwards that might be available there.

I agree, Philly is likely to go for a USNDP player like Moore or Leonard. I have Barlow as a potential guy for them too. Michkov makes sense for Montreal/Chicago who have two firsts. Yager is peaking at the right time, wonder if that elevates him back to top 10 (if he ever left).

When there are drafts that are weak on dman in the first round always worry that the few in prospects get over valued. That said ASP does look intriguing more so for my imho than the swiss dman.

 

[pman25]

When there are drafts that are weak on dman in the first round always worry that the few in prospects get over valued. That said ASP does look intriguing more so for my imho than the swiss dman.

I’m not sure it’s as weak as some are saying it is. I don’t think there are any worthy of going above the top 4, or top 6 even. But after that, I think Reinbacher / ASP are fair game. Not much difference from picks 7-15 or so

 

[usiel]

I’m not sure it’s as weak as some are saying it is. I don’t think there are any worthy of going above the top 4, or top 6 even. But after that, I think Reinbacher / ASP are fair game. Not much difference from picks 7-15 or so

I hear ya still my doubt creeps in on drafts like this. I actually like ASP over Rein.

 

[YippieKaey]

Watched a lot of ASP in the last U-21 worlds and the comparisons to Hughes and Karlsson are pretty fair. I did get the feeling that he plays with a little more edge than either of those but my memory might he playing tricks on me.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Dalibor Dvorsky just scored his third of the game to tie it up at 4 for Slovakia vs Germany.

 

[Silky mitts]

 

[kicksavedave]

Contrast this to that shithead who the Bruins signed then cut, the one who hazed that disabled kid. Not every human completely sucks, Bedard seems like a good dude.

Winning the lottery would be insane!

 

[Corby78]

Boston losing does make our third round pick the best it could be, so that’s a plus.

 

[twabby]

Scott Wheeler's 2023 NHL Draft ranking, post-U18 worlds edition

Headed by phenom Connor Bedard, Scott Wheeler breaks down the top 32 prospects of the second-best draft class he's ever scouted.

theathletic.com

8. Gabe Perreault — LW, U.S. NTDP, 5-foot-11​

I’ve stuck my neck out on Perreault since the start of this season and I’m prepared to hold firm with my evaluation through to the end of this draft year, too. Eventually, when the points pile up like they did, and they happen making the kinds of plays that he did, you can’t ignore them. Say what you will, he’s now the NTDP’s single-season points record holder. He didn’t even pass Auston Matthews and Jack Hughes by a narrow margin when it was all said and done, either. There are many who’ve settled on Perreault as more of a mid-to-late first-rounder because of the combination of his skinny frame (though he has looked stronger all three times I bumped into him over the course of this season at the rink), the linemates he plays with, and perceived questions about his skating. He’s likely going to be the fourth player from the national program picked because his game is believed to be less projectable.

I’m less and less convinced of that. He’s a clever-beyond-belief, maneuverable facilitator and playmaker who plays the game with a light touch and a heady spatial awareness of not only where his teammates are, but where he is in the flow of play (and relative to defenders). The son of longtime NHLer Yanic Perreault and brother of Ducks prospect Jacob, Gabe doesn’t have his dad’s defensive acumen or his brother’s build (he’s listed at 165 pounds now), but he’s an intuitive, highly intelligent player who sees the play develop offensively at a more advanced level than his two family members did/do — and than almost anybody in the draft does. He’s got some of the quickest hands in the draft. He problem-solves his way out of trouble as well as anyone in this age group. He’s got dexterous tools catching, tipping and redirecting pucks. He arrives into space at exactly the right times to make himself available and finish plays. His ability to bait defenders and open them up so that he can slide passes through their feet is so impressive. He gets shots off extremely fast and without bobbles in catch-and-release sequences. He plans things out on the ice at speed and then finds ways to make his desired play. He’s a slick one-on-one player but will also wait that extra split second and then just sling a pass tape-to-tape across the grain. He became a real puck thief by year’s end, consistently tracking back hard to empty the tank and make effort plays on lifts.

And he’s a better skater than he gets credit for, with above-average speed for my money and room to add power and pick up another step as he gets stronger. Because of his genetics, he should add the necessary weight and strength eventually. I’d eagerly bet on him and with the proper patience I expect the right team will reap the rewards of a top-six playmaking winger. There might not be a player in this draft class who thinks the game offensively at his level.

If Washington doesn't win the lottery (they will) then Perreault is the guy I have my eyes on at #8.

 

[Langway]

Perreault is the spreadsheet sweetheart for sure but he struggles to simplify against tougher competition and is a dodgy overall projection. He dominated lesser teams with more time/space but when he needed to streamline he was often ineffective. The same questions go for Cristal. Both have plenty of skilled upside when they have space but how will they earn and create it as they progress? Are they dogged enough off puck defensively to earn trust all-around? These are secondary team-building options IMO because of a lack of versatility and plus athleticism. They're cerebral offensive-minded talents that dominate their peers to some extent but the rest still needs to improve considerably to make it. I lean more WYSIWYG rather than bank on projection and best-cases. Some figure it out, some don't. Some develop later physically and evolve a more pro style but some (many) wash out. Reliability and maturity are big advantages and Wheelers rankings don't account for it much. A lot of the higher floors will go higher. It's not everything...but it's not nothing. They're early indicators of who's most capable of doing the heavy lifting in every phase. It's not fool-proof either and maybe it leaves upside on the table but I'd much more often bang the table for the more versatile, complete player...especially as foundational pieces.

Blueliners seem underrated. Reinbacher & ASP should go quite higher. Only four D in this top 32. It's a ranking and not a mock but pretty sure there's never been so few in the first round. Willander and Simashev should go round 1 regardless. 5-6 D is still quite low historically but you figure it's more realistic. Dragicevic showed he's pretty close as a first rounder (more so than Morin) and in a thin field there may be helium at play. Maybe the two Russians slide for geopolitical reasons and, if so, they'd be strong value at 40 should the Caps keep the pick.

Re: the 8th pick, I'd guess Moore is more likely available than Leonard. Both could be available if Reinbacher or Dvorsky go early and no one slides but in a third-line role for most of the U18s Moore didn't quite dominate. He was solid but Leonard was more visible. I don't think based on performance alone Moore cemented himself to be off the board before 8. Had he played with Hagens/Eiserman throughout he likely puts up quite a few more points and maybe it's a different story but USA preferred to spread their talent out. Dvorsky has at least entered the conversation. His tools aren't as pretty as Moore but he tends to max them out thanks to IQ. Not to say Moore doesn't process well but I'm not sure he would have managed as strong a performance in Dvorsky's role.

Overall Reinbacher/Dvorsky seem like riser wild cards and Michkov/Benson slider wild cards. Smith should be a top 5 lock after his MVP U18 performance, if he wasn't already. It's a matter of which three go after the big three and Smith. Michkov is a no-brainer if available. After that does Benson have more upside than Leonard at his size? Does the positional value of a center provide an edge relative to a winger if otherwise close? Eight is a decent spot to be and it wouldn't be terribly surprising if one of the smaller wingers slid.

 

[usiel]

Had not gotten around to watching some Perreault video but I'm kinda sold with those ridiculous hands and hockey sense.

 

[pman25]

I think Matthew Wood is a riser too. Wheeler has him at 10

Scott Wheeler on Wood:

"He’s got quick hands one-on-one, he drops pucks back into his shooting stance effortlessly, and he’s got a beautiful curl-and-drag motion. He has also quite noticeably gotten quicker from a standstill and worked to up his work rate. Though he still needs to get a little quicker from a standstill, his skating isn’t an issue for me on the whole and when he keeps his feet moving in puck protection he draws a ton of penalties. He’s better suited as a playmaker and finisher than a power-forward type, but he has become sneaky competitive. I love the way he slows down the game, adjusts and maneuvers his frame and shades pucks. Mix in a multi-dimensional shooting arsenal and I see top-six upside."

 

[pman25]

Perreault got that dawg in him for sure. Only way to describe it. He's got the instincts, just sees the game at a ridiculous level. Shows up for his teammates at exactly the right place and time.

Someone with two firsts like Arizona, Chicago, or Montreal should try to nab both Smith and Perreault to keep 2/3 of that line together.

 

[Langway]

Watching the playoffs it's evident just how valuable a heavy, dogged, fast forecheck is. Who gets buy-in to execute across the board and who neutralizes it? In light of that I, again, won't be very surprised if a smaller winger or two slid. Michkov and Benson are smart enough to overcome size concerns but you wonder how readily they'll be perceived as essential core pieces relative to bigger, perhaps more complete players like Reinbacher, Dvorsky or Leonard. It may be a bit rich for bad teams to think ahead to playoff style hockey but from a team culture and leadership standpoint bigger, more complete players are arguably just as or more valuable. Bad teams need to score enough to make the playoffs to begin with so there's a balance to strike. But I'd still wager the more overall complete types go higher than some "talent" evaluators because teams have so much on the line. It's not just about individual assessments but the aspirational hopes teams are seeking to make a reality. That goes beyond sheer skill level or raw upside into many other areas that drive value and team success.

We're also seeing the limitation of sheer star power in general in the playoffs..with the possible exception of a couple of absolute phenoms in McDavid/Draisaitl. Bedard is the only phenom in this draft. Fantilli is quite good but not quite that. Heavier players like Tkachuk and Hintz show the value of bigger body presences. This draft doesn't have a wealth of them but you wonder if it may help some of the bigger forwards available like Wood, Honzek and But.

 

[Silky mitts]

Pronman just posted new rankings and he has Benson 17th. The 6-10 tier is Danielson, Reinbacher, Dvorsky, But, and Simashov (cool name).

 

[Langway]

The Bobfather's top 12 dropping soon.

 

[usiel]

Pronman just posted new rankings and he has Benson 17th. The 6-10 tier is Danielson, Reinbacher, Dvorsky, But, and Simashov (cool name).

Wow those are pretty different for some others so I find it interesting. He is definitely weighting on size mass the fourth pick it seems to me.